B1G Tourney Bracket Projections - thru 3/5

[throwback]

This week RPIForecast gives us a:

• 9.5% chance of going 2-0
• 43% chance of going 1-1
• 47.5% chance of going 0-2

So that's a 52.5% chance of winning at least one of the two games. Do that and we should be at least the #5 seed with a chance at #4 if things break right ... not to mention we'd still have a reasonable shot for an at large NCAA heading into the B1G Tourney.

[lanigan123]

Dave happen thinks we need 20.

[Norm Peterson]

This week RPIForecast gives us a:

• 9.5% chance of going 2-0
• 43% chance of going 1-1
• 47.5% chance of going 0-2

So that's a 52.5% chance of winning at least one of the two games. Do that and we should be at least the #5 seed with a chance at #4 if things break right ... not to mention we'd still have a reasonable shot for an at large NCAA heading into the B1G Tourney.

So better than 50/50 odds that we get to 10-8 from our projected last-place finish.

 

Which means, clearly, Coach of the Year belongs to B-line.

[cipsucks]

Dave happen thinks we need 20.

I hoppen to think he's mistaken. 

[49r]

Cip, do you think maybe he's just hoppen to conclusions?

[throwback]

NU does its job to stay in the hunt for a first-round bye - 9 wins in 11 games, simply amazing!

 

To clinch the #4 seed:

• NU def. Wisconsin, Iowa lose one game (MSU or Illinois)

--OR--

• NU def. Wisconsin, MSU loses to both Iowa and Ohio St, Iowa def. Illinois

--OR--

• NU lose to Wisconsin, Iowa loses to both MSU and Illinois, and OSU loses to MSU

 

To clinch the #3 seed:

• NU def. Wisconsin, MSU loses to both Iowa and Ohio St, Iowa loses to Illinois

 

So it looks like we'll be MSU fans this week ... or MSU haters. Either way is good.   Just so they don't split. But it gives us more wiggle room if MSU sweeps OSU & Iowa.

 

 

Current standings through 3/5:

1. 14-3 Michigan
2. 12-5 Wisconsin
3. 11-5 Mich St 
4. 10-7 NEBRASKA 
5.   9-7 Iowa 
6.   9-8 Ohio St 
7.   7-10 Minnesota (1-0 vs Ind)
8.   7-10 Indiana (0-1 vs Minn)
9.   6-11 Illinois
10.   5-11 Northwestern (0-0 vs PSU) ... (.000 vs Mich) ... (1-1 vs Wis)
11.   5-11 Penn St (0-0 vs NW) ... (.000 vs Mich) ... (0-1 vs Wis)
12.   5-12 Purdue 

Bracket if tourney “began today”:

• 11 AM - 9/Illinois vs 8/Indiana … Winner plays 1/Mich
• 1:30 PM - 12/Purdue vs 5/Iowa … Winner plays 4/NEBRASKA
• 5:30 PM - 10/Northwestern vs 7/Minnesota … Winner plays 2/Wisconsin
• 8 PM - 11/Penn St vs 6/Ohio St … Winner plays 3/Mich St

Projections end of season according to RPIForecast.com (as of 3/4):

1. 15-3 Michigan
2. 13-5 Wisconsin
3. 12-6 Mich St
4. 10-8 Iowa (2-1 vs Neb/OSU)
5. 10-8 Ohio St (2-2 vs Neb/Iowa)
6. 10-8 NEBRASKA (1-2 vs Iowa/OSU)
7.   8-10 Minnesota 
8.   7-11 Indiana 
9.   6-12 Illinois (2-1 vs Pur/PSU) ... (.000 vs Mich & Wis) ... (1-1 vs MSU)
10.   6-12 Purdue (2-1 vs Ill/PSU) ... (.000 vs Mich & Wis) ... (0-1 vs MSU)
11.   6-12 Penn St (1-3 vs Pur/Ill)
12.   5-13 / 6-12 Northwestern 

Bracket projections end of season according to RPIForecast.com:

• 11 AM - 9/Illinois vs 8/Indiana … Winner plays 1/Michigan
• 1:30 PM - 12/Northwestern vs 5/Ohio St … Winner plays 4/Iowa
• 5:30 PM - 10/Purdue vs 7/Minnesota … Winner plays 2/Wisconsin
• 8 PM - 11/Penn St vs 6/NEBRASKA … Winner plays 3/Mich St

 

 

Remaining games/tie-breaker options:

 

("W or L" is a game projected by RPIForecast as 7 pts or more margin, "close W or L" is projected as a 2.5 pt to 6.5 pt margin, "toss-up W or L" is projected as 1 pt or 2 pt margin)

 

• ILLINOIS 6-11 – projected 6-12
• Possible seed range: 7 through 11
• Projected seed: 9

At Iowa (L)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: Minn, PSU (2-0)

Unfavorable tiebreaker: NW, Pur, Wis (0-2), OSU (0-2), Iowa (0-2)

Tied 1-1 season series: Mich* (0-0), Ind, Neb, MSU

*Game remaining

 

• INDIANA 7-10 – projected 7-11
• Possible seed range: 7 through 10
• Projected seed: 8

At Michigan (L)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: Mich*, Iowa, OSU

Unfavorable tiebreaker: Minn, Pur, MSU (0-2), Neb (0-2)

Tied 1-1 season series: Ill, PSU, NW, Wis

*Game remaining

 

• IOWA 9-7 – projected 10-8
• Possible seed range: 3 through 6
• Projected seed: 4

At Mich St (toss-up / L)

Illinois (W)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: Ill*, Neb, PSU, Pur, NW (2-0)

Unfavorable tiebreaker: MSU*, Ind, Wis (0-2)

Tied 1-1 season series: Mich, OSU, Minn

*Game remaining

 

• MICHIGAN 14-3 – projected 15-3
• Clinched seed: 1

Indiana (W)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: Ill, NW, PSU, OSU, Neb (2-0), MSU (2-0), Pur (2-0), Minn (2-0)

Unfavorable tiebreaker: Ind*

Tied season series: Iowa, Wis

*Game remaining

 

• MICHIGAN STATE 11-5 – projected 12-6
• Possible seed range: 2 through 5
• Projected seed: 3

Iowa (toss-up / W)

At Ohio St (close L)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: Iowa*, OSU*, Minn, Pur, NW (2-0), Ind (2-0), PSU (2-0)

Unfavorable tiebreaker: Neb, Wis, Mich (0-2)

Tied season series: Ill

*Game remaining

 

• MINNESOTA 7-10 – projected 8-10
• Possible seed range: 7 through 10
• Projected seed: 7

Penn St (close W)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: PSU*, Ind

Unfavorable tiebreaker: Neb, Ill, MSU, Mich (0-2)

Tied 1-1 season series: Wis, OSU, Pur, NW, Iowa

*Game remaining

 

• NEBRASKA 10-7 – projected 10-8
• Possible seed range: 3 through 6
• Projected seed: 6

Wisconsin (close L)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: MSU, Minn, NW (2-0). Ind (2-0)

Unfavorable tiebreaker: Iowa, Mich (0-2)

Tied 1-1 season series: Wis* (0-0), OSU, PSU, Pur, Ill

*Game remaining

 

• NORTHWESTERN 5-11 – projected 5-13 (6-12)
• Possible seed range: 8 through 12
• Projected seed: 12

Penn St (toss-up / L)

At Purdue (close L)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: Pur*, Ill

Unfavorable tiebreaker: OSU, Mich, Iowa (0-2), MSU (0-2), Neb (0-2)

Tied 1-1 season series: PSU* (0-0), Wis, Minn, Ind

*Game remaining

 

• OHIO STATE 9-8 – projected 10-8
• Possible seed range: 4 through 6
• Projected seed: 5

Michigan St (close W)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: Wis, NW, Pur (2-0), Ill (2-0)

Unfavorable tiebreaker: MSU*, Mich, Ind, PSU (0-2)

Tied 1-1 season series: Iowa, Neb, Minn

*Game remaining

 

• PENN STATE 5-11 – projected 6-12
• Possible seed range: 8 through 12
• Projected seed: 11

At Northwestern (toss-up / W)

At Minnesota (L)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: OSU (2-0)

Unfavorable tiebreaker: Minn*, Mich, Iowa, Wis, MSU (0-2), Ill (0-2)

Tied 1-1 season series: NW* (0-0), Neb, Pur, Ind

*Game remaining

 

• PURDUE 5-12 – projected 6-12
• Possible seed range: 9 through 12
• Projected seed: 10

Northwestern (close W)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: Ind, Ill

Unfavorable tiebreaker: NW*, MSU, Iowa, OSU (0-2), Mich (0-2), Wis (0-2)

Tied 1-1 season series: Minn, PSU, Neb

*Game remaining

 

• WISCONSIN 12-5 – projected 13-5
• Possible seed range: 2 or 3
• Projected seed: 2

At Nebraska (close W)

 

Favorable tiebreaker: MSU, PSU, Iowa (2-0), Ill (2-0), Pur (2-0)

Unfavorable tiebreaker: OSU 

Tied season series: Neb* (0-0), Mich, Minn, NW, Ind

*Game remaining

[uneblinstu]

Go Sparty!

[AuroranHusker]

Go Sparty!

 

Or, No No Sparty! 

[royalfan]

Cliff notes in my 15 deep beer evaluation is correct. 

 

We win we have a bye if Mich. St. beats Iowa.  If Iowa wins we still get one if Iowa loses to Illinois or M. St. loses to Ohio St. 

 

If we lose we will be a 4 seed if Michigan St. wins out and Illinois beat Iowa. 

5 seed if Michigan St wins out and Iowa beats Illinois

6 seed if Mich St. beats Iowa and loses to Ohio St. 

[tcp]

geez, even if we lose to wiscy and get that 6th seed, the PSU/MSU path is by far the most winnable in the tourney. Not a bad consolation prize. Really, we're in decent shape right now. Obviously we want the Wiscy game as the cherry on top of a near miracle season. But if we don't get it, we're still in solid shape given the likely tourney draw.

[royalfan]

geez, even if we lose to wiscy and get that 6th seed, the PSU/MSU path is by far the most winnable in the tourney. Not a bad consolation prize. Really, we're in decent shape right now. Obviously we want the Wiscy game as the cherry on top of a near miracle season. But if we don't get it, we're still in solid shape given the likely tourney draw.

I do not agree.  Sparty starts dialing it up a notch about now.  Especially with revenge on their mind.  I know I am in the minority since they aren't playing great. 

[nuled2dance]

Go sparty tonight the four works for me

[KZRider]

I am good with MSU winning. Actually, I just don't like Iowa -- a lot! So I'm good with them LOSING as often as possible. Really the only B1G team I feel that way about.

[HoiBall]

I am good with MSU winning. Actually, I just don't like Iowa -- a lot! So I'm good with them LOSING as often as possible. Really the only B1G team I feel that way about.

I couldn't agree more. Don't know what it is, maybe living amongst all the morons makes me despise them that much more than any other team

[KZRider]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xV7ZcVFSWWU

[uneblinstu]

Sparty tonight, win on Sunday, clinch the 4 seed, then the revenge tour can begin. Iowa, then Michigan then championship.

[TomEadesSucks]

 4. 10-7 NEBRASKA

Beautiful.

[hhcmatt]

Rooting for Iowa to lose to a team we beat?  You had me at Iowa.

[royalfan]

If we do happen to lose Sunday, we may be better served with a Penn St. win tonight.  NW win makes it very likely that Illinois would be the 11 seed, and we can easily be the 6.  Penn St. wins it looks like we would be likely to play Penn St. or NW in the opening round, which would be a better situation than Illinois IMO, in a game that could possibly be a tourney play in game for us. 

[Cookie Belcher]

If we do happen to lose Sunday, we may be better served with a Penn St. win tonight.  NW win makes it very likely that Illinois would be the 11 seed, and we can easily be the 6.  Penn St. wins it looks like we would be likely to play Penn St. or NW in the opening round, which would be a better situation than Illinois IMO, in a game that could possibly be a tourney play in game for us. 

Agree.

[MichHusker]

If I remember correctly, at worse we can be a 5 seed now

[royalfan]

If I remember correctly, at worse we can be a 5 seed now

Unfortunately, you didn't remember correctly or were misinformed. 

[AuroranHusker]

 

If I remember correctly, at worse we can be a 5 seed now

Unfortunately, you didn't remember correctly or were misinformed. 

 

 

There's a lot of misinformation out about that "#5 being the worst case".... as it stands, NU can still finish from 2nd to 6th!  Now, that #2 slot may be out the window later tonight...

[uneblinstu]

 

 

If I remember correctly, at worse we can be a 5 seed now

Unfortunately, you didn't remember correctly or were misinformed. 

 

 

There's a lot of misinformation out about that "#5 being the worst case".... as it stands, NU can still finish from 2nd to 6th!  Now, that #2 slot may be out the window later tonight...

 

How can we finish 2nd? Wisconsin has a 2 game lead on us with one to play. Best we can finish is 3rd as I look at it.

[Cookie Belcher]

Yeah, as of now, we can finish anywhere from 3rd to 6th.