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Bubble Watch

Shuttlesworth

By Shuttlesworth
in The Haymarket Hardwood

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Blindcheck

Blindcheck

Posted
Posted

I know all the pundits have Iowa has a Lock...

 

but if they lose at MSU, lost at home to Illinois and lose in the first round of the Big ten tourney, with their finish, they will be heading to the NIT.

 

They are not in...without winning at least one more game, in my opinion.

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nuled2dance
nuled2dance

Why even have this thread mention them....no one cares about creighton

49r
49r

DAGGER!   ONIONS!!!!   MANTAMAN!!   SENDITINJEROME!!!   (not sure that last one can qualify as one word or not)   But you know, Gus Johnson isn't afraid of one word sentences, either.   PU

jdostal
jdostal

Everyone should be rooting for Nebraska over PSU to improve our bubble chances,

Blindcheck

Blindcheck

Posted
Posted

Iowa

 

Their Quality non conference wins are Xavier and Notre Dame...otherwise, they have only 9 conference wins and have lost 3 conference home games.

 

If they lose 3 in a row...and 6 out of 7....I don't see how they get in.

GoBigRed

GoBigRed

Posted
Posted

Iowa

 

Their Quality non conference wins are Xavier and Notre Dame...otherwise, they have only 9 conference wins and have lost 3 conference home games.

 

If they lose 3 in a row...and 6 out of 7....I don't see how they get in.

 

Notre Dame is 15-16 and 118 in the RPI and was played in Iowa. By that standard, Penn State was a quality win for us.

Blindcheck

Blindcheck

Posted
Posted

I was being rather liberal with the term Quality....acutally the RPI of their UTEP win was higher than the Notre Dame win

 

Drake was considered neutral court game...played in Wells fargo arena...they get a slightly bigger bump playing in des Moines in a "neutral" court than they do playing in Iowa City.

 

That is why I think Nebraska should (if they ever choose to schedule) schedule UNO and try to play them in Century Link every year....play that game in Omaha...basically get a Neutral court game that will probably feel more like a home game....and get credit for 1.0 instead of .6 in the years Nebraska wins that game...

GoBigRed

GoBigRed

Posted
Posted

Some interesting numbers when you look at our resume against others...

 

Nebraska is just 5-0 against teams outside the RPI Top 150. Among other "bubble" teams, Xavier is 4-1, Providence is 5-0. Everyone else listed as a 9 seed through the Next 4 Out on ESPN has played at least 7 games against 150+ teams. Some of the worst cupcake offenders: Gonzaga is 14-2, Colorado is 10-0, Stanford is 10-0, Pittsburgh is 10-0, Arkansas is 10-0, BYU is 11-3...that is 5 easy wins that these teams got that we did not.

 

(Side note: I don't understand how our strength of schedule isn't better than 43. Minnesota has same # of Top 25 opponents, only 2 more Top 50 opponents, only 1 more Top 100 opponent, 2 fewer Top 150 opponents, 2 more 151+ opponents, and has 3 fewer road/neutral games. Yet they rank 4th, and we rank 43rd).

 

Also, no one on the bubble is better than 9-3 in their last 12 games (which we are), unless you count Green Bay at 10-2 (but we hope they win Horizon).

 

We have 10 road/neutral losses which is more than any bubble team, but our 14 road/neutral games are more than anyone except BYU's 15. Most bubble teams have played 10-12 road/neutral games so far, so again we've challenged ourselves more than others.

 

Our 3 losses to teams 101-150 is really the only thing holding us back, as most bubble teams have 0, 1 or 2. (Tennessee has 3 though). A win on Sunday would have our resume looking similar to those currently of 10 seeds.

Shuttlesworth

Shuttlesworth

Posted
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Posted

Villanova leads Xavier 41-36 at half.

 

Go Jay Wright & the Wildcats! They'll clinch the Big' LEast w/ that dubya...

 

A little harder to win conference championships in the Big East, no?

With the shots Chris Mack was firing at the A10, I think he'd agree. ;)

royalfan

royalfan

Posted
Posted

 

 

 

Villanova leads Xavier 41-36 at half.

 

Go Jay Wright & the Wildcats! They'll clinch the Big' LEast w/ that dubya...

 

 

A little harder to win conference championships in the Big East, no?

 

 

You forgot the 'L' as it's the Big LEast!!  <_<

 

No it is a damn good league.  Better than than ours if you ask them.  But we are delusional.

49r

49r

Posted
Posted

No no no no, Royal.  We're delusional because our megalomaniacal AD put signs up on the stadium touting how great our fans are.  Don't you know?  We believe that crap and we think it informs our lives.

RimRattler

RimRattler

Posted
Posted

This is funny. So yesterday this was posted on the creighton board "But Creighton fans would NEVER EVER in a game against a 7th place conference foe and make it about the Huskers. Last night was very embarrassing for my friends and acquaintances who are Husker basketball fans because it showed their obsession with Jays is at a level even I didn't think possible."

 

While it looks as if we had 0 (zero) (nada) posts on this board last evening about Creighton, Jays fans went on for 4 pages talking about Nebraska fans.

 

If that isn't delusional, I don't know what is. They're so wrapped up in talking about us "talking about them" that they don't realize they are talking more than we are.

 

As if we aren't on their minds during their best season (well, was their best season) in program history.

49r

49r

Posted
Posted

Apart from the power conferences, we'll need to keep an eye on conference tourneys in:

 

MVC - need Wichita St to win

WCC - need Gonzaga or BYU

MAC - need Toledo

CUSA - need Southern Miss

Summit - need North Dakota St. (currently right on the bubble)

Horizon - need Green Bay (although they are likely outside the bubble right now)

 

Anybody other than those teams listed above winning their tournaments would mean fewer at-large spots for us to slip in to.

aphilso1

aphilso1

Posted
Posted

Even though North Dakota State is currently projected as a 12 seed, I can't imagine how they would get an at-large bid.  No one else in the Summit has an RPI in the top 125, so any NDSU loss in their conference tourney would be considered "bad." And currently, they have 0 top 50 wins compared to 3 bad losses.  0 to 4 is a terrible ratio.

 

For very similar reasons, Green Bay is also extremely unlikely to get in.  Although in my opinion, they actually have a better current resume than NDSU and have the potential for their conference tourney loss to not be crippling (Cleveland State has an RPI of 82).

 

I've read (don't remember where, sorry) that the selection committee regretted selecting Middle Tennessee State last year, which really hurts Stephen F. Austin's chances of getting in.  They played only one team in the top 100 all year, and they lost that game.  Very similar resume to last year's MTSU squad, and the committee isn't going to make the same mistake two years in a row.

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