KenPom 2024-2025 KenPom Rankings Thread

[GhostOfJoeMcCray]

1 hour ago, millerhusker said:

Or how Gonzaga is ranked #14 in the NET. They are 18-7 and 2-6 in quad 1 games. Over half of their games played are against quad 3/4 teams. There seems to be way too much weight placed on margin of victory. 

 

Correct. The NET is very reliant on margin of victory. Fortunately, they don't use it for selecting teams to the big dance. 

 

South Carolina was a 6 seed last year with a NET of 51. Northwestern was a 9 seed with a NET of 53. Virginia was a 10 seed with a NET of 54. 

 

The committee liked those 3 teams because their resume averages were very strong, even though their predictive metrics were not.

 

Fortunately for us, our resume average is 36.3. 

 

 

 

[hhcmatt]

We have 4 coinflip games in a row. Current bracketology is built on the assumption that we will win 2 of them when in reality 0-4 and 4-0 is on the table

[kldm64]

2 hours ago, hhcmatt said:

We have 4 coinflip games in a row. Current bracketology is built on the assumption that we will win 2 of them when in reality 0-4 and 4-0 is on the table

 

Valid point and especially if we don't have Berke available during this stretch.

[nuhusker7]

29 minutes ago, kldm64 said:

 

Valid point and especially if we don't have Berke available during this stretch.

Northwestern doesn’t have their two best players available either though.

[Vinny]

2 minutes ago, nuhusker7 said:

Northwestern doesn’t have their two best players available either though.

Martinelli is their best player and he’s still healthy.

[AGHANSEN]

I wonder what KenPoms game projection would be without Barnheizer and Leach against NW.

I would imagine the Huskers would be a 5 point favorite. 

[Art Vandalay]

1 hour ago, Vinny said:

Martinelli is their best player and he’s still healthy.

For my money I think Barnheiser was their best. He was great on offense and defense where Martinelli can be had on defense but scores a little more. 
 

Either way we need to take advantage of that game now.

[big red22]

18 hours ago, GhostOfJoeMcCray said:

 

Correct. The NET is very reliant on margin of victory. Fortunately, they don't use it for selecting teams to the big dance. 

 

South Carolina was a 6 seed last year with a NET of 51. Northwestern was a 9 seed with a NET of 53. Virginia was a 10 seed with a NET of 54. 

 

The committee liked those 3 teams because their resume averages were very strong, even though their predictive metrics were not.

 

Fortunately for us, our resume average is 36.3. 

 

 

 

We are top 25 in RPI... the one metric that doesn't use any human bias.  

[big red22]

17 hours ago, nuhusker7 said:

Northwestern doesn’t have their two best players available either though.

Which in turn means they may end up a Q2 game and becomes a must win

[hskr4life]

1 hour ago, big red22 said:

Which in turn means they may end up a Q2 game and becomes a must win

 

No Q2 (probably Q2A) road game is a "must" win. If we were to rank the games I believe we should win in order of importance, I'd go with the below which doesn't even put Northwestern in the top three. Even then though, there really isn't any "must" wins outside of Minnesota and it's all about finding three wins out of those 7 games. No matter how we get there.

 

1. Minnesota

2. Iowa

3. @Penn State (worse environment than Northwestern)
4. @Northwestern

5. Maryland

6. Michigan

7. @Ohio St

Edited February 11 by hskr4life

[big red22]

25 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

 

No Q2 (probably Q2A) road game is a "must" win. If we were to rank the games I believe we should win in order of importance, I'd go with the below which doesn't even put Northwestern in the top three. Even then though, there really isn't any "must" wins outside of Minnesota and it's all about finding three wins out of those 7 games. No matter how we get there.

 

1. Minnesota

2. Iowa

3. @Penn State (worse environment than Northwestern)
4. @Northwestern

5. Maryland

6. Michigan

7. @Ohio St

Iowa is number 1 for must win for psyche alone.  That game sent us down that path of 6 straight losses.  I don't care if Minnesota was ranked 200 in the metrics.  We lose to Iowa, I see a team that won't win again after.  I can't imagine what losing to them at home for the last game of the seaso would do to the team moral going into the post season.  If the OT loss at their place made us go on a 6 game skid.

Edited February 11 by big red22

[Norm Peterson]

1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

 

No Q2 (probably Q2A) road game is a "must" win. If we were to rank the games I believe we should win in order of importance, I'd go with the below which doesn't even put Northwestern in the top three. Even then though, there really isn't any "must" wins outside of Minnesota and it's all about finding three wins out of those 7 games. No matter how we get there.

 

1. Minnesota

2. Iowa

3. @Penn State (worse environment than Northwestern)
4. @Northwestern

5. Maryland

6. Michigan

7. @Ohio St

 

I don't know how the loss of Berke plays into this. Hopefully we get him back sooner than later. With a healthy Berke, I honestly feel like 4 wins are in play and maybe even 5. The top 5 on your list are all very winnable games with a healthy Berke. Maybe even six. I don't see us winning at tOSU, but that's the only one I'd say is more or less unlikely.

[Norm Peterson]

24 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

I don't know how the loss of Berke plays into this. Hopefully we get him back sooner than later. With a healthy Berke, I honestly feel like 4 wins are in play and maybe even 5. The top 5 on your list are all very winnable games with a healthy Berke. Maybe even six. I don't see us winning at tOSU, but that's the only one I'd say is more or less unlikely.

 

So, just to add to this. Yeah, 50/50 games, you're not gonna win them all because that's what makes them 50/50 games. Statistically, you'd win about half, right?

 

But here's the thing: In that stretch of 6 losses, we already lost 4 50/50 games. Give us a healthy Berke from here on out and, everything else being equal, we're due for some wins in some of those 50/50 games.

 

Y'know?

 

BTW, our record this year in 1-score games (including OT games) is 1-4.

[hhcmatt]

11 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

So, just to add to this. Yeah, 50/50 games, you're not gonna win them all because that's what makes them 50/50 games. Statistically, you'd win about half, right?

 

But here's the thing: In that stretch of 6 losses, we already lost 4 50/50 games. Give us a healthy Berke from here on out and, everything else being equal, we're due for some wins in some of those 50/50 games.

 

Y'know?

 

BTW, our record this year in 1-score games (including OT games) is 1-4.

 

It's nice to think that a team that has lost close games in the past is due to win more close games as opposed to losing more close games.

[GhostOfJoeMcCray]

46 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

I don't know how the loss of Berke plays into this. Hopefully we get him back sooner than later. With a healthy Berke, I honestly feel like 4 wins are in play and maybe even 5. The top 5 on your list are all very winnable games with a healthy Berke. Maybe even six. I don't see us winning at tOSU, but that's the only one I'd say is more or less unlikely.

 

Maybe I'm crazy, but I still think we can beat Northwestern, Penn State, Minnesota and Iowa without Berke. Some of these teams also have had injuries. Not saying we'll go 4-0 against them, but this is why we have the depth that we went out and got. 

[nuhusker7]

38 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

 

It's nice to think that a team that has lost close games in the past is due to win more close games as opposed to losing more close games.

As a Nebraska football fan this scares me

[Raidsker]

On 2/10/2025 at 1:12 PM, GhostOfJoeMcCray said:

 

Correct. The NET is very reliant on margin of victory. Fortunately, they don't use it for selecting teams to the big dance. 

 

South Carolina was a 6 seed last year with a NET of 51. Northwestern was a 9 seed with a NET of 53. Virginia was a 10 seed with a NET of 54. 

 

The committee liked those 3 teams because their resume averages were very strong, even though their predictive metrics were not.

 

Fortunately for us, our resume average is 36.3. 

 

 

 

Margin of victory is not directly used.

 

 

 

[millerhusker]

57 minutes ago, Raidsker said:

Margin of victory is not directly used.

 

 

 

It has to be, though. Some teams last night had some really quality close wins, but saw very little movement in the NET this morning. But USC beats Penn St by 25 at home and moves up 8 spots. 

[Sgt Lincoln Osiris]

34 minutes ago, millerhusker said:

It has to be, though. Some teams last night had some really quality close wins, but saw very little movement in the NET this morning. But USC beats Penn St by 25 at home and moves up 8 spots. 

That comes through in the points/possession (efficiency) portion of the algorithm. I think that’s why you see teams keeping starters in and their foot on the gas until the very end. 

[kldm64]

19 hours ago, GhostOfJoeMcCray said:

 

Maybe I'm crazy, but I still think we can beat Northwestern, Penn State, Minnesota and Iowa without Berke. Some of these teams also have had injuries. Not saying we'll go 4-0 against them, but this is why we have the depth that we went out and got. 

 

What depth?  We have been playing with on a 7 man rotation for a reason because we don't have much depth.

[GhostOfJoeMcCray]

5 minutes ago, kldm64 said:

 

What depth?  We have been playing with on a 7 man rotation for a reason because we don't have much depth.

 

We had Mast and Allick last year. Had one of them gone down for an extended period of time in February, Matar Diop was going to play a lot. I'll take this current situation with a guy with a ton of DI experience and previously a starter on this team filling those minutes for the time being.  

 

This program is not too far removed from recruiting football players to join the team because we needed bodies.

[hskr4life]

1 hour ago, millerhusker said:

It has to be, though. Some teams last night had some really quality close wins, but saw very little movement in the NET this morning. But USC beats Penn St by 25 at home and moves up 8 spots. 

 

As mentioned, "efficiency" is just a fancy way of saying "margin of victory" as the larger the win, the better "efficiency" you'll have.

[GhostOfJoeMcCray]

9 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

 

As mentioned, "efficiency" is just a fancy way of saying "margin of victory" as the larger the win, the better "efficiency" you'll have.

 

This. Gonzaga is a good example. Their NET ranking is 14. Their Predictive Average is 14.3. Their Resume Average is 47. The NET is closely correlated to the Predictive Metrics, way more so than Resume Average. Predictive Metrics include KenPom, Torvik and BPI, and I believe all of them say they use margin of victory as a factor. 

 

Funny enough, we're the one team where our NET ranking is pretty significantly lower than both our resume and predictive averages. The metrics can't figure us out - probably because we do things like win at Creighton and Oregon but get beat like a Sun Belt team at Michigan State and Wisconsin. 

 

[HuscurAdam]

2 hours ago, Raidsker said:

Margin of victory is not directly used.

 

 

 

 

"Directly" is doing a lot of work here. Margin of victory is baked into the efficiency numbers so it makes a huge difference without being a stand-alone data point.    

[hhcmatt]

50 minutes ago, kldm64 said:

 

What depth?  We have been playing with on a 7 man rotation for a reason because we don't have much depth.

 

Some of that is because Fred likes having a smaller rotation. It's why we redshirted 3 guys