2024 B1G Tourney Projection

[hhcmatt]

2 minutes ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

 

Purdue already has 3 losses so that "18-2" is out-the-window.

 

 

Yeah weird, I though it had it up to date.

Here is the proper one, which is mostly the same

[brfrad]

Just now, AuroranHusker said:

 

Yeah, 13-5 in the Big Ten would NEVER be left out. . . 

 

A 13 - 7 team has never been left out.

[AuroranHusker]

1 minute ago, hhcmatt said:

 

Yeah weird, I though it had it up to date.

Here is the proper one, which is mostly the same

 

Yeah, I just happened to notice the top line, I suppose Ohio St. was the only other team affected.

 

[HuskerFever]

33 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

36 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

I believe the outcomes are based on expected win probabilities. And the default of us winning our really just means we're favored in those games.

 

The reality? No, we're not likely to win out. Curious what Ken Poneroy and others have for our expected win total in these final games (@49r). That's more telling for the question you're asking, Norm.

Expand  

 

Exactly. See, though I don't understand how they come up with it, I remember ppl like @49r patiently trying to explain to me that even though we might be favored in all the remaining games, the analytics people might project a different record than 5-0. 

 

Way over simplified. But say we're projected to win all 5 of our games. But the expected individual game probabilities are 52%, 75%, 90%, 60%, and 55%.

 

In short, that's 1*52%+1*75%+1*90%+1*60%+1*65% = 3.42 wins out of 5 games.

[AuroranHusker]

7 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Way over simplified. But say we're projected to win all 5 of our games. But the expected individual game probabilities are 52%, 75%, 90%, 60%, and 55%.

 

In short, that's 1*52%+1*75%+1*90%+1*60%+1*65% = 3.42 wins out of 5 games.

 

That's why I just responded to Normy, "Probabilities."

 

To simply the maths.... 

[Norm Peterson]

According to Torvik, we'd be very strong favorites to win the last two at home. Somewhat favored at Indiana and Michigan. And fairly firm underdogs at Ohio State.

 

Wed 2-21	A		91 (Ⅱ)	•	Indiana	-1.1, 75-73	54%			.49
Sun 2-25	H		69 (Ⅲ)	•	Minnesota	-7.1, 76-69	75%			.27
Thu 2-29	A		52 (I)	•	Ohio St.	+2.3, 73-71	41%			.62
Sun 3-03	H		90 (Ⅲ)	•	Rutgers	-7.8, 70-62	80%			.23
Sun 3-10	A		97 (Ⅱ)	•	Michigan	-1.7, 76-74	57%			.47
Projected Record: 21-10 (11-9)								RECORD		W

 

Which, doing the math per @HuskerFever, means Torvik thinks we should win three of the remaining five.

[Cazzie22]

We have to hope the PBA effect continues because I don’t like the matchups with Rutgers and Minnesota.  I think Indiana is our best bet for that road win.  

[TourneyBound]

13 minutes ago, Cazzie22 said:

We have to hope the PBA effect continues because I don’t like the matchups with Rutgers and Minnesota.  I think Indiana is our best bet for that road win.  

 

Minnesota really scares me...

[hhcmatt]

2 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

Projected Record: 21-10 (11-9)

 

Torvik concurs

[hskr4life]

In our quest for a double bye, here is the schedules for the teams we’ll be fighting with. 
 

Illinois: Iowa, Minnesota, @Wisconsin, Purdue, @Iowa

 

Wisconsin: @Indiana, Illinois, Rutgers, @Purdue

 

Northwestern: Michigan, @Maryland, Iowa, @Michigan St, Minnesota

 

Michigan St: Ohio St, @Purdue, Northwestern, @Indiana

 

Iowa: @Illinois, Penn St, @Northwestern, Illinois

[hskr4life]

Predictions like this leave me shaking my head.  I’m sorry, but in current state, our metrics alone are too good for Dayton.  Theres no top 35 in both resume AND quality metrics that’s getting sent to Dayton.

[AuroranHusker]

3 hours ago, hskr4life said:

Predictions like this leave me shaking my head.  I’m sorry, but in current state, our metrics alone are too good for Dayton.  Theres no top 35 in both resume AND quality metrics that’s getting sent to Dayton.

 

I wouldn't put much stock in that opinion... just my thought.

 

[Ron Mexico]

On 2/19/2024 at 1:45 PM, Norm Peterson said:

According to Torvik, we'd be very strong favorites to win the last two at home. Somewhat favored at Indiana and Michigan. And fairly firm underdogs at Ohio State.

 

Wed 2-21	A		91 (Ⅱ)	•	Indiana	-1.1, 75-73	54%			.49
Sun 2-25	H		69 (Ⅲ)	•	Minnesota	-7.1, 76-69	75%			.27
Thu 2-29	A		52 (I)	•	Ohio St.	+2.3, 73-71	41%			.62
Sun 3-03	H		90 (Ⅲ)	•	Rutgers	-7.8, 70-62	80%			.23
Sun 3-10	A		97 (Ⅱ)	•	Michigan	-1.7, 76-74	57%			.47
Projected Record: 21-10 (11-9)								RECORD		W

 

Which, doing the math per @HuskerFever, means Torvik thinks we should win three of the remaining five.

Got that road win out of the way. 

I think we have a better chance at winning those last 2 road games than beating both Minny and Rutgers. Both of those teams have 2 conference road wins.

We are in a dog fight with Minny to potentially see who gets the double bye. That is the game that worries me the most.

Both of those games where lost because of 2nd half large lead collapses. 

 

[LNKtrnsplnt]

Take this for what it’s worth but I think this is the first time our odds of a four seed are greater than five

[hhcmatt]

Being in the Wisconsin, NW, Michigan St part of the bracket seems favorable for us winning our first game.

[AuroranHusker]

9 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

Being in the Wisconsin, NW, Michigan St part of the bracket seems favorable for us winning our first game.

 

Yeah, I'd like that very much. I'm focusing on if/when UW or NW were to fall behind NU at this point. It would be sweet to see, as our Huskers have the tie-breaker on most teams above us.

 

Edited February 26 by AuroranHusker

[hskr4life]

3 minutes ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

Yeah, I'd like that very much. I'm focusing on if/when UW or NW were to fall behind NU at this point. It would be sweet to see, as our Huskers have the tie-breaker on most teams above us.

 

Wisconsin: @Indiana 2/27, Illinois 3/2, Rutgers 3/7, @ Purdue 3/10

 

NW: @Maryland 2/28, Iowa 3/2, @Michigan St 3/6, Minnesota 3/9

[49r]

32 minutes ago, LNKtrnsplnt said:

 

Take this for what it’s worth but I think this is the first time our odds of a four seed are greater than five

 

 

Image is not showing up for me, so I'll add the link to the thread here:

 

 

[Norm Peterson]

Wisconsin has two probable losses left on their schedule: Illinois and @Purdue.

 

Northwestern has two probable losses left on their schedule: @Maryland and @Michigan State. They also have home games against Iowa and Minnesota.

 

I don't see either of them surpassing 12 conference wins. And we can certainly get there.

 

We own the tiebreaker against Wisconsin, Northwestern and Michigan State.

 

Right now, it's more probable than not that we end up with a double-bye. How does that sound?

[Navin R. Johnson]

3 hours ago, LNKtrnsplnt said:

Take this for what it’s worth but I think this is the first time our odds of a four seed are greater than five

 

So, 9th is the worst we could be.  

[49r]

15 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

How does that sound?

 

I think our fans need to realize that Minneapolis is a very drivable location and we need to have a large presence at the BTT!

[hhcmatt]

18 minutes ago, Navin R. Johnson said:

So, 9th is the worst we could be.  

 

I was able to get us down to 10 though quite unlikely. 

[Crush78]

IF we get top 4, we will not have played our 1st tourney game on Thursday for 11 straight seasons. 

[Norm Peterson]

47 minutes ago, Navin R. Johnson said:

 

So, 9th is the worst we could be.  

 

Crazy how no one has an easier stretch run than we do. Our last three games are against literally the three lowest-ranked teams in the league standings.

[TourneyBound]

58 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

Wisconsin has two probable losses left on their schedule: Illinois and @Purdue.

 

Northwestern has two probable losses left on their schedule: @Maryland and @Michigan State. They also have home games against Iowa and Minnesota.

 

I don't see either of them surpassing 12 conference wins. And we can certainly get there.

 

We own the tiebreaker against Wisconsin, Northwestern and Michigan State.

 

Right now, it's more probable than not that we end up with a double-bye. How does that sound?

Say there is a 3 or 4 way tie with us, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan st.  How does tiebreaker go then??