NCAA Tournament Watch

[HuskerBB]

21 minutes ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

I'm prayin' that OMAHA is still a distinct possibility if they keep rollin' through the remaining schedule, including the BTT. GBR

 

 

Actually I would think the only way we would have any chance to be in Omaha is if we squeeze in as a 12 seed - one of the very last at-large bids.   If you are a 7-10 seed then your likely 2nd round game is vs a #1 or #2.  I can't imagine how much grief the committee would get if they made a #1 or #2 play us in Omaha in the 2nd round.    A #12 has to beat a #5 to get to a #4 so that might not be looked at so strangely - but #12's also don't get an preference in regional location considerations.

 

The other problem with the Omaha option is tickets would be astronomically priced.   Might be just a cheap to pay for ticket, airfare and hotel somewhere else than just the ticket if we were in Omaha. 

Edited February 22 by HuskerBB

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

13 minutes ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

Tang started out 28-2 at home, maybe this season hasn't gone as well, i.e. Nebrasketball broke them (as we did to UW), but the Purple Reign still beat K.U. at their Octagon, so it's kinda snarky to act like it wasn't a big win for N.U.

 

He was just making a joke that in every game only one of the two teams wins (i.e. half). They’re still 12-3 there this year.

[AuroranHusker]

Just now, HuskerBB said:

 

Actually I would think the only way we would have any chance to be in Omaha is if we squeeze in as a 12 side - one of the very last at-large bids.   If you are a 7-10 seed then your likely 2nd round game is vs a #1 or #2.  I can't imagine how much grief the committee would get if they made a #1 or #2 play us in Omaha in the 2nd round.    A #12 has to beat a #5 to get to a #4 so that might not be looked at so strangely - but #12's also don't get an preference in regional location considerations.

 

The other problem with the Omaha option is tickets would be astronomically priced.   Might be just a cheap to pay for ticket, airfare and hotel somewhere else than just the ticket if we were in Omaha. 

 

I don't agree with that, at all. NU will never be a #12 because the last 4 in are usually 11's. The mid-majors are typically 12's.

 

I can see a scenario where NU can figure into Omaha, but it involves getting a bunch more wins yet. We shall see. I'm not counting us out, let's just say. When it doesn't happen, then it doesn't happen. My wishful thinking is personal in nature.

 

[AuroranHusker]

Just now, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

He was just making a joke that in every game only one of the two teams wins (i.e. half). They’re still 12-3 there this year.

 

Ah, I didn't get it. I guess snarky doesn't always translate on the interwebs. All good, Normy. I just made a joke about the Octagon because I thought it was a dumb nickname, too. 

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

3 minutes ago, HuskerBB said:

 

Actually I would think the only way we would have any chance to be in Omaha is if we squeeze in as a 12 side - one of the very last at-large bids.   If you are a 7-10 seed then your likely 2nd round game is vs a #1 or #2.  I can't imagine how much grief the committee would get if they made a #1 or #2 play us in Omaha in the 2nd round.    A #12 has to beat a #5 to get to a #4 so that might not be looked at so strangely - but #12's also don't get an preference in regional location considerations.

 

The other problem with the Omaha option is tickets would be astronomically priced.   Might be just a cheap to pay for ticket, airfare and hotel somewhere else than just the ticket if we were in Omaha. 

Auburn was a 9 seed last year in Birmingham. Houston as a 1 seed had to contend with that.

 

Also you’re overestimating ticket prices. By a lot. There is no chance the total cost of travel plus ticket to another location exceeds the cost of just a ticket in Omaha. Booking a last minute flight anywhere is going to run you at least $500 alone.

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

4 minutes ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

I don't agree with that, at all. NU will never be a #12 because the last 4 in are usually 11's. The mid-majors are typically 12's.

 

I can see a scenario where NU can figure into Omaha, but it involves getting a bunch more wins yet. We shall see. I'm not counting us out, let's just say. When it doesn't happen, then it doesn't happen. My wishful thinking is personal in nature.

 

There are years when one of the play-in games is between 12 seeds. It would require no bid stealers and a handful of mid major conference champions with great resumes worthy of seeding 11 or better.

[AuroranHusker]

3 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

There are years when one of the play-in games is between 12 seeds. It would require no bid stealers and a handful of mid major conference champions with great resumes worthy of seeding 11 or better.

 

I guess I was saying the locked-in to Omaha at a 12 isn't gonna happen. Now a date in Dayton, yeah sure, that could be.

 

 

[HuskerBB]

18 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

Auburn was a 9 seed last year in Birmingham. Houston as a 1 seed had to contend with that.

 

Also you’re overestimating ticket prices. By a lot. There is no chance the total cost of travel plus ticket to another location exceeds the cost of just a ticket in Omaha. Booking a last minute flight anywhere is going to run you at least $500 alone.

 

That is a fair comparison but I don't think it is quite the same.   Auburn has been in the tournament fairly often and would not have generated quite the same excitement by playing close to home - and less significantly Auburn was also not the state school playing in the largest city in the state - and is not quite as close to Birmingham as Lincoln is to Omaha.   I also don't recall Auburn being talked about so much on their abiltiy to beat anyone at home but stuggling on the road which has been the national narrative about our program this season.   Auburn does have a big home court advantage on their campus - but alot of that gets attributed to the fact they play in a small arena (under 10K) which also means fewer people tend to watch them play live vs NU.

 

I was admittedly exagerrating a bit on the $ comparison.  But - again if you get specific the NCAA knows how well Omaha sells tickets anyway.   (They may have wanted Auburn in Birmingham to make sure it sold out there - that is not an issue in Omaha).      I did a quick check and Omaha is already the location with the most expensive resell prices for any of the 8 round one sites - one of two where no seats were priced under $100 currently for session one.   It appeared to me that a few of the first round sites are still not sold out as there were lots of options for what I assumed was face value ($60 for session one) in places.    No one is as rabid about these things as Nebraska fans.   I know several people who sold volleyball tickets to BIg 10 and NCAA games last year for over $400 a seat.   Nebraska playing an NCAA basketball game in Omaha would be an even hotter ticket.  Likely anything in the lower bowl would be $1,000 or more - that definitely would be the case if either Kansas or Iowa State are also there - and I think they are both far more likely to land in Omaha than Nebraska will be this season (and FWIW I think both of those are more comparable to the Auburn in Birmingham example than putting Nebraska in Omaha  - except they are both also likely higher seeds than a #9).   

 

If you do think there is a reasonable chance that Nebraska ends up in Omaha I advise you to buy that ticket now.   The one thing about these kinds of events in Omaha is they will be well attended regardless so you will probably not lose money on your seat if you decide later not to go.     As I mentioned in another thread if you are thinking about flying anywhere you should probably have already bought the airline tickets on SW that you can cancel for full credit as you are correct that the week of the games airline prices will be jacked up as well.    Personally I made plans months ago to go to Vegas for March Madness (thinking NU probably was not likely to get in the tournament this year - my bad).   Regretting that a bit now - but this is also not a great year for our fans in terms of tournament site options - and FWIW I do have a SW ticket booked for Thursday morning from LV to Salt Lake (was only $59 but used points anyway) so feel like I at least have a 1 in 8 chance still of seeing us play live this year :).       

[hskr4life]

 

Over the past few weeks, he’s posted this a couple of times.  We’ve been inching our way north toward that green trapezoid.  That’s a good thing!  Where we are at, from what I gather, means we can play fast or slow if we need to, but we’re pretty efficient either way.

[FredsSlacks]

lunardi has had us as a 10 seed for the last 2 weeks despite us winning 3 games in a row by 18ppg....

 

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2024-march-madness-men-field-predictions

Edited February 23 by FredsSlacks

[HuskerFever]

1 minute ago, FredsSlacks said:

lunardi has had us as a 10 seed for the last 2 weeks despite winning 3 games in a row by 18ppg....

 

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2024-march-madness-men-field-predictions

 

Brackets predictions in February are just about as valuable as preseason rankings. They mean nothing, but people love them.

[hskr4life]

1 hour ago, FredsSlacks said:

lunardi has had us as a 10 seed for the last 2 weeks despite us winning 3 games in a row by 18ppg....

 

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2024-march-madness-men-field-predictions

To be fair, according to this, we’re more “in” than near the bubble with odds of 85% or better.  So yes, last four byes, but more for seeding purposes than

bubble in his mind as it stands today.

 

 

[hskr4life]

Idk how you can list Rutgers and not Minny though…

[Vinny]

1 hour ago, FredsSlacks said:

lunardi has had us as a 10 seed for the last 2 weeks despite us winning 3 games in a row by 18ppg....

 

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2024-march-madness-men-field-predictions

More importantly, he has us as a 10 seed in Omaha. I’d take that.

[hskr4life]

Notes from committee!  Free read!

 

Biggest thing for me: we aren’t near the bubble and don’t want to be with our non con SOS.

 

They'd have no problem putting us in Omaha per an almost direct in response to question asked.

 

They look at when a team played another as well as where that finished in quads.  Could bode well for our KSU Q1 win.  We’ll also probably be thankful that game was on the road and not at home.  Strengthened our non-con a bit.

 

 

 

[Chuck Taylor]

Just to be clear: that bracket is NOT the NCAA committee's. It's the Athletic's. 

[Nebrasketball1979]

17 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Notes from committee!  Free read!

 

Biggest thing for me: we aren’t near the bubble and don’t want to be with our non con SOS.

 

They'd have no problem putting us in Omaha per an almost direct in response to question asked.

 

They look at when a team played another as well as where that finished in quads.  Could bode well for our KSU Q1 win.  We’ll also probably be thankful that game was on the road and not at home.  Strengthened our non-con a bit.

 

 

 

I still believe the committee would do everything in their power to not put a 7-10 seed in a significant geographic and home court advantage over a higher seed.  That being said, if we were to somehow end up in Omaha, pen us into the sweet 16 on your brackets!

[hskr4life]

7 minutes ago, Chuck Taylor said:

Just to be clear: that bracket is NOT the NCAA committee's. It's the Athletic's. 

 

This is correct.  The article is for the committee... the bracket is from the Athletic.

[hskr4life]

Here is our updated Team sheet.  Note that the Minny road game is now a Q1 in current state while the game on Saturday will be a Q2!!  A few other notes.

 

- Getting that BPI into the 30's would be HUGE

- Remember that a team who finishes with a sub 35 SOS and KPI has not been left out (I think I'm remembering this correctly)

- While we are just 3-7 in Q1 currently, we do own a Q1A win (Purdue) which is a good thing.  That win will still sick out on any resume.

- Come on KSU... one more spot in the NET and we'd own another Q1 win... and a non-con road Q1 win to boot.

- We're now nearly perfect in Q2 (4-1) and should Minny remain where they are in the NET and we win Sunday... our Q1 + Q2 record will be a solid 8-8

- Remaining games as it stands now- Minny Q2, Ohio St Q1, Rutgers Q3, Michigan Q2

 

Edited February 23 by hskr4life

[Nebrasketball1979]

Someone was asking for a link to strength of record.  The link is below.  The result based metrics shown above are generally what the committee uses to pick the at large teams for the field.  Predictive metrics typically help with seeding.  As long as we don't stub our toe in our home games or get absolutely blown out on the road, we should be safely in the field.  You'll note that our SOR has us as the top 8 seed in the field.

 

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/resume

[hskr4life]

 

Edited February 23 by hskr4life

[hskr4life]

We need to continue to be good shot makers.

 

 

[hhcmatt]

21 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

We need to continue to be good shot makers.

 

Much better than the first couple of years where the metrics said we would won the game had we not sucked at making 3pters 

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

25 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

We need to continue to be good shot makers.

 

 

Keisei effect lol

[Vinny]

2 hours ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

I still believe the committee would do everything in their power to not put a 7-10 seed in a significant geographic and home court advantage over a higher seed.  That being said, if we were to somehow end up in Omaha, pen us into the sweet 16 on your brackets!

 

Kansas as the two seed though in this scenario, that’s likely the closest for them as well.