KenPom 2020-2021 KenPom Rankings Thread

[Norm Peterson]

5 hours ago, 49r said:

whoa, whoa, whoa!!!

 

110?  Are you nuts @Norm Peterson??  Get a hold of yourself man!  This team isn't built to withstand such lofty heights!

 

Just wait. If Trevor Lakes gets eligible this year, you might hear talk from me about breaking into the top 105.

[49r]

Unsurprisingly, even a 46 point win couldn't keep us from dropping.  We're now down to 119, but at least we finish non-con with a winning record.  

 

As for the rest of the Big Ten - MSU, OSU, Maryland and Minnesota all had big drops while Rutgers and Indiana continue their rise.  Here is today's KenPom update:

KenPom rankings as of 12-18-20
=========================

 

B1G (0-0):
4. Iowa
6. Wisconsin
10. Illinois
16. Michigan
17. Indiana
19. Rutgers
20. Michigan State
24. Ohio State
31. Purdue
45. Penn State
51. Maryland
55. Minnesota
68. Northwestern
119. Nebraska

Non-Conference (4-3):
330. McNeese State - W

 

---Golden Window Classic---
124. Nevada - L
171. North Dakota State - W

 

208. South Dakota - W

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
71. Georgia Tech - L

 

15. Creighton - L

NR. Doane - W

Edited December 18, 2020 by 49r

[kldm64]

1 hour ago, 49r said:

 

Unsurprisingly, even a 46 point win couldn't keep us from dropping.  We're now down to 119, but at least we finish non-con with a winning record.  

 

As for the rest of the Big Ten - MSU, OSU, Maryland and Minnesota all had big drops while Rutgers and Indiana continue their rise.  Here is today's KenPom update:

KenPom rankings as of 12-18-20
=========================

 

B1G (0-0):
4. Iowa
6. Wisconsin
10. Illinois
16. Michigan
17. Indiana
19. Rutgers
20. Michigan State
24. Ohio State
31. Purdue
45. Penn State
51. Maryland
55. Minnesota
68. Northwestern
119. Nebraska

Non-Conference (4-3):
330. McNeese State - W

 

---Golden Window Classic---
124. Nevada - L
171. North Dakota State - W

 

208. South Dakota - W

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
71. Georgia Tech - L

 

15. Creighton - L

NR. Doane - W

 

Those loses to Nevada and Georgia are just killers as both were very winnable games.  The season would look a whole lot different even you just win one of those games but to lose both is hard to take.

[49r]

30 minutes ago, kldm64 said:

 

Those loses to Nevada and Georgia are just killers as both were very winnable games.  The season would look a whole lot different even you just win one of those games but to lose both is hard to take.

 

Yep, I was just thinking how much different things would look for us at 6-1 versus 4-3 (which it could very easily be) when putting together this post.

[tcp]

we're not getting anymore #171 cupcakes that we struggle to handle. 

I'll be skeptical until we beat someone our own "size", at least. 

 

wins are going to be scarce from here on out. 

[hskr4life]

1 minute ago, tcp said:

we're not getting anymore #171 cupcakes that we struggle to handle. 

I'll be skeptical until we beat someone our own "size", at least. 

 

wins are going to be scarce from here on out. 

 

I think we can hang with just about anyone.  At least if we play well FOR THE WHOLE GAME.

 

However, hanging and winning are two different things.  We basically "hung" with Creighton, Ga Tech, and Nevada.... and...... like you said, we need to win some of those.

[49r]

Loss bumps us up a couple spots, not a surprise really.  Wisco and Iowa swap spots, and MSU keeps dropping.

 

Here is today's KenPom update:

KenPom rankings as of 12-23-20
=========================

 

B1G (0-1):
3. Wisconsin - L
5. Iowa
11. Illinois
16. Michigan
17. Indiana
18. Rutgers
20. Ohio State
27. Michigan State
33. Purdue
44. Penn State
49. Maryland
52. Minnesota
56. Northwestern
117. Nebraska

Non-Conference (4-3):
327. McNeese State - W

 

---Golden Window Classic---
130. Nevada - L
164. North Dakota State - W

 

217. South Dakota - W

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
76. Georgia Tech - L

 

13. Creighton - L

NR. Doane - W

[Norm Peterson]

Wow! A few more losses like that and we could climb into the top 110! #SoStoked

[Norm Peterson]

Does Kenny factor in margin of victory/defeat? I was surprised we kept it to a 14-point game with Wisconsin last night. I actually was fairly ... OK ... with that.

[49r]

Yeah @Norm Peterson, MOV is important.  Your ranking is dependent on a whole lot of factors, but in general, if you can beat the spread against a higher ranked team chances are good you will move up even after a loss.

 

That's why we could beat the brakes off Doane last week and still fall in the rankings.  Essentially, there was no MOV in a game against a team of that caliber that won't negatively effect our ranking.

 

Last night Ken had us as a 17 point dog and since we beat that number we got a little bump in our ranking.  No biggie though...we'll probably give those spots back by the time we play Michigan since the rankings are weighted by a team's past performance and we spent most of last season ranked in the 150's, so the gravity of our past will keep dragging our ranking down over time naturally.

[Norm Peterson]

So, @49r, you're saying who we were last year will continue to affect our ranking THIS year? For how long?

 

I mean, with the sit-out transfers, we're nowhere near the same team this year that we were last year.

 

And, next year, we won't be the team we are this year. So, how long does Kenpom's ranking system factor in your performance from past years? Shouldn't that have worked itself out of the system by mid-year at the latest? I mean, he has to start teams out somewhere. But at some point, it has to be about what you've done for me lately.

[49r]

@Norm Peterson, don't quote me on this, but I think the results from the past 4 years weigh in to Ken's rankings at least to some degree.

 

You're right though that most of the noise from non-con play and roster changes typically work themselves out by about the beginning of January.  Don't know if that will happen in this covid-altered season though.  Might take longer.

[hhcmatt]

3 hours ago, 49r said:

That's why we could beat the brakes off Doane last week and still fall in the rankings.  Essentially, there was no MOV in a game against a team of that caliber that won't negatively effect our ranking.

 

Us dropping after beating Doane was more along the lines of that game not moving us either way and other teams passing us up.

[49r]

47 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

 

Us dropping after beating Doane was more along the lines of that game not moving us either way and other teams passing us up.

 

Sure, but if we had played Mississippi Valley State instead of Doane (and I bet if those two played each other it would be a pretty close game), I bet you we'd have kept pace with those other teams that passed us up better.

 

I'm just saying that non-D1 opponents can break KenPom some due to the fact that he doesn't keep data for those teams.

[49r]

Would you look at that!  We moved up a spot overnight.  #116 today!  Heady stuff...

 

 

(just imagine, two years ago at this time we were #14, on our way towards the top 10.  Oh, how KenPom fortunes can change)

[hskr4life]

So if we "get the Covid" and don't play another game until March first-- at the rate we are moving without playing-- we'll be 49th and darn near lock territory.  Win a game or two in the Big 10 tournament, finish the season 6-4 (.600 win percentage) and you never know.  I think we got a shot.

[Dead Dog Alley]

Here is the year two schedule comparison (regular season only), Iowa State 2012 and Nebraska 2021, based on the final KP for 2012 and the current one this year, with the number of games vs each range in ranking.  

KenPom Rank	ISU 2012	NU 2021
1-10	4	3
11-20	2	7
21-30	3	2
31-50	2	6
51-75	1	3
76-100	3	1
101-150	8	1
151-200	0	1
201-300	7	1
301-	1	2

In 2012, 12 opponents above #75, 19 below.

In 2021, 21 opponents above #75, 6 below.

[49r]

8 minutes ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

Here is the year two schedule comparison (regular season only), Iowa State 2012 and Nebraska 2021, based on the final KP for 2012 and the current one this year, with the number of games vs each range in ranking.  

KenPom Rank	ISU 2012	NU 2021
1-10	4	3
11-20	2	7
21-30	3	2
31-50	2	6
51-75	1	3
76-100	3	1
101-150	8	1
151-200	0	1
201-300	7	1
301-	1	2

In 2012, 12 opponents above #75, 19 below.

In 2021, 21 opponents above #75, 6 below.

 

That's great stuff.  If we had 2012 ISU's SOS this year, we'd all probably be wondering how many games over .500 we'd be able to get to right now. 

[49r]

Another loss, another KenPom bump.  We move up one to #116.  The guys can play for long stretches of games and look like a top 25 team.  The problem is, they spend too much time in games looking like the 116th ranked team.

 

Here is today's KenPom update:

KenPom rankings as of 12-26-20
=========================

 

B1G (0-2):
4. Wisconsin - L
5. Iowa
7. Illinois
16. Michigan - L
17. Ohio State
19. Rutgers
21. Indiana
32. Michigan State
34. Purdue
42. Minnesota
48. Maryland
52. Penn State
53. Northwestern
116. Nebraska

Non-Conference (4-3):
328. McNeese State - W

 

---Golden Window Classic---
129. Nevada - L
165. North Dakota State - W

 

217. South Dakota - W

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
78. Georgia Tech - L

 

15. Creighton - L

NR. Doane - W

[Red Don]

Seems Like we are running sort of a Gauntlet;   #4; #15, next #17.  

 

Hope we start picking up some Wins!!!    Around #30 or so would do.  

[tcp]

so about 6 more quality losses and we might be back in the top 110? groovy. 

[Navin R. Johnson]

 

[49r]

It's been a long time, but I figured since we won yesterday it might be fun to do an update and see where things have changed over the past 6 weeks.  Biggest change is Michigan State.  Woof.

 

Here is today's KenPom update:

KenPom rankings as of 2-15-21
=========================

 

B1G (1-9):
3. Michigan - L
4. Iowa
5. Illinois - L
7. Ohio State - L
13. Wisconsin - L, L
22. Purdue
26. Rutgers
29. Indiana - L
35. Maryland
37. Penn State - W
40. Minnesota - L
69. Michigan State - L, L
72. Northwestern
118. Nebraska

Non-Conference (4-3):
341. McNeese State - W

 

---Golden Window Classic---
98. Nevada - L
154. North Dakota State - W

 

176. South Dakota - W

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
58. Georgia Tech - L

 

15. Creighton - L

NR. Doane - W

[hhcmatt]

We started the year at 117 btw

[Chuck Taylor]

Wow, I guess it didn't occur to me that our best win before yesterday was at home against ND State (154). 

 

What a weird year, Penn State is 39 in NET just because the BIG is loaded. They have home wins against Wisconsin, Rutgers and Maryland and that's about it. You can be an average team and win half your conference home games, so it's not like they've really proved anything. That's one of things that has been so frustrating this year: OK, we're not great but we still  should have been able to win 4-5 conference games.