Nebraska Bubble Watch

[Handy Johnson]

Figures lie & liars figure, just going by the “eye ball test” this team doesn’t look like they can beat anybody, much less ranked opponents with 2 on the road...

[hskr4life]

I keep watching... night after night... seeing bubble teams drop like flies in a bug zapper... wondering what could have been... but also... WHAT STILL CAN BE!  WHOSE WITH ME!?!?

[tcp]

26 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

I keep watching... night after night... seeing bubble teams drop like flies in a bug zapper... wondering what could have been... but also... WHAT STILL CAN BE!  WHOSE WITH ME!?!?

 

Sorry, bro. There's just not enough drugs. But best of luck!

[HuskerFever]

35 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

I keep watching... night after night... seeing bubble teams drop like flies in a bug zapper... wondering what could have been... but also... WHAT STILL CAN BE!  WHOSE WITH ME!?!?

 

Considering we average under 0.5 conference tournament wins since joining the Big Ten, it's not looking so good for us.

 

Our best bet is winning 2-3 remaining conference games and 1-2 Big Ten tournament games.

[AuroranHusker]

1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

I keep watching... night after night... seeing bubble teams drop like flies in a bug zapper... wondering what could have been... but also... WHAT STILL CAN BE!  WHOSE WITH ME!?!?

 

Chicago, man, that's where it's at.

 

 

[HuskerFever]

Here's where Lunardi's "Last Four In" teams stand:

 

ASU / Seton Hall / Clemson / USU / Nebraska (just because)

NET: 69 / 63 / 40 / 30 / 51

KPI: 39 / 42 / 53 / 51 / 73

SOR: 60 / 53 / 45 / 48 / 59

BPI: 66 / 63 / 33 / 47 / 37

POM: 66 / 62 / 30 / 38 / 45

SAG: 57 / 54 / 31 / 50 / 39

 

Avg: 59.5 / 56.1 / 38.6 / 44.0 / 50.6

 

Quad 1: 3-3 / 4-7 / 1-9 / 2-2 / 2-11

Quad 2: 6-2 / 6-3 / 4-3 / 2-3 / 5-3

Quad 3: 3-2 / 2-2 / 6-0 / 7-1 / 3-0

Quad 4: 7-2 / 4-0 / 6-0 / 12-0 / 4-0

[hskr4life]

9 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

Here's where Lunardi's "Last Four In" teams stand:

 

ASU / Seton Hall / Clemson / USU / Nebraska (just because)

NET: 69 / 63 / 40 / 30 / 51

KPI: 39 / 42 / 53 / 51 / 73

SOR: 60 / 53 / 45 / 48 / 59

BPI: 66 / 63 / 33 / 47 / 37

POM: 66 / 62 / 30 / 38 / 45

SAG: 57 / 54 / 31 / 50 / 39

 

Avg: 59.5 / 56.1 / 38.6 / 44.0 / 50.6

 

Quad 1: 3-3 / 4-7 / 1-9 / 2-2 / 2-11

Quad 2: 6-2 / 6-3 / 4-3 / 2-3 / 5-3

Quad 3: 3-2 / 2-2 / 6-0 / 7-1 / 3-0

Quad 4: 7-2 / 4-0 / 6-0 / 12-0 / 4-0

 

Completely flipped from last year.  We almost had too many tough games.

[jayschool]

That last-minute loss to Kansas. One shot doesn't go in, or the next one does go in, we're dancing with a real chance. It was that simple.

 

I hate KU.

[HuskerFever]

For those holding on to hope. Mind you, it would probably take a run to the BTT final and some bubble teams to drop out early to even have a shot. For those who see this season as already over, here's some ammo to help back that up.

 

(Note: Nebraska's Sunday stats aren't updated yet, I only updated the record and Q2 fields.)

 

NC State / Alabama / Temple / Clemson / Nebraska

Record: 21-10 / 17-14 / 23-8 / 19-12 / 16-15

Avg NET Win: 190 / 116 / 149 / 142 / 133

Avg NET Loss: 39 / 44 / 45 / 32 / 35

 

NET: 32 / 58 / 49 / 35 / 53

KPI: 66 / 50 / 36 / 49 / 73

SOR: 31 / 59 / 37 / 38 / 60

BPI: 23 / 60 / 65 / 30 / 36

POM: 32 / 60 / 69 / 28 / 45
SAG: 30 / 53 / 71 / 34 / 38

Avg: 35.7 / 56.7 / 54.5 / 35.7 / 50.8

 

SOS: 217 / 24 / 79 / 33 / 50

Non-Con SOS: 353 / 42 / 217 / 114 / 184

 

Q1: 2-8 / 2-9 / 2-6 / 1-9 / 2-12

Q2: 6-0 / 7-3 / 6-1 / 6-3 / 6-3

Q3: 3-2 / 5-2 / 7-1 / 6-0 / 3-0

Q4: 10-0 / 3-0 / 8-0 / 6-0 / 4-0

 

Q1+Q2: 8-8 / 9-12 / 8-7 / 7-12 / 8-15

[FredsSlacks]

1 hour ago, HuskerFever said:

For those holding on to hope. Mind you, it would probably take a run to the BTT final and some bubble teams to drop out early to even have a shot. For those who see this season as already over, here's some ammo to help back that up.

 

(Note: Nebraska's Sunday stats aren't updated yet, I only updated the record and Q2 fields.)

 

NC State / Alabama / Temple / Clemson / Nebraska

Record: 21-10 / 17-14 / 23-8 / 19-12 / 16-15

Avg NET Win: 190 / 116 / 149 / 142 / 133

Avg NET Loss: 39 / 44 / 45 / 32 / 35

 

NET: 32 / 58 / 49 / 35 / 53

KPI: 66 / 50 / 36 / 49 / 73

SOR: 31 / 59 / 37 / 38 / 60

BPI: 23 / 60 / 65 / 30 / 36

POM: 32 / 60 / 69 / 28 / 45
SAG: 30 / 53 / 71 / 34 / 38

Avg: 35.7 / 56.7 / 54.5 / 35.7 / 50.8

 

SOS: 217 / 24 / 79 / 33 / 50

Non-Con SOS: 353 / 42 / 217 / 114 / 184

 

Q1: 2-8 / 2-9 / 2-6 / 1-9 / 2-12

Q2: 6-0 / 7-3 / 6-1 / 6-3 / 6-3

Q3: 3-2 / 5-2 / 7-1 / 6-0 / 3-0

Q4: 10-0 / 3-0 / 8-0 / 6-0 / 4-0

 

Q1+Q2: 8-8 / 9-12 / 8-7 / 7-12 / 8-15

i would say we'd have an outside chance at the play-in game if we make it to the semis. we'd have 2 more q1 wins if we beat wis/md. that'd be 2 more than the other schools on your list assuming they don't get any in their conference tourney. we could be screwed if the committee factors in the copeland injury when making selections.

 

but we have to beat rutgers first...

Edited March 11, 2019 by TimSmiles

[HuskerActuary]

I'm a little more optimistic than the above posters. We'd have a decent shot at getting in if we make it to Saturday. If we make it to Sunday, we'd be in easily (assuming that we beat the top seeds, not lower seeds by way of upset).

[timofarmer]

I believe no team has ever received an at large with 16 losses.  May need to Jake Taylor this and win the whole f'n thing.

[OmahaHusker]

1 minute ago, timofarmer said:

I believe no team has ever received an at large with 16 losses.  May need to Jake Taylor this and win the whole f'n thing.

 

Especially with a non-con strength of schedule of 183rd. Maybe if we had a higher non-con SOS there'd be a chance, but I agree I think we're in the win it all or nothing territory. 

[HuskerFever]

4 minutes ago, timofarmer said:

I believe no team has ever received an at large with 16 losses.  May need to Jake Taylor this and win the whole f'n thing.

 

No other team with 22+ wins in the Big Ten had been left out of the tournament either...so I don't have a clue what the committee will do if we get 3+ more wins.

[kldm64]

I don't see any scenario that we get in short of winning the Big 10 tournament.  Even making it to the finals and losing won't do it.

[Milk]

Going to have to win Big 10 Tourney.  No way committee would take a team with 6-14 conference record and 13th place team. 

[HuskerFever]

22 minutes ago, Milk said:

Going to have to win Big 10 Tourney.  No way committee would take a team with 6-14 conference record and 13th place team. 

 

None of those metrics are on the team sheets. I'm not saying they can't try to do the math and make that a consideration, but the idea for the committee was to create team sheets with data points that matter to them most.

 

And if I recall last season, nearly everyone in the Big 12 was in or on the bubble except for Iowa State for much of the same circumstances that Nebraska is in right now.

[The Polish Rifle]

The worst conf records to make the NCAA tournament were 4 games under .500 (98' FSU at 6-10 and 92' ISU at 5-9)...I think we would be naive to think suddenly they're gonna take a team 8 games under .500 in conf as an at large. I realize we played more games but it is still quite a jump. Metrics aside, I don't think the NCAA will open up that can of worms. 

[AuroranHusker]

2 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

The worst conf records to make the NCAA tournament were 4 games under .500 (98' FSU at 6-10 and 92' ISU at 5-9)...I think we would be naive to think suddenly they're gonna take a team 8 games under .500 in conf as an at large. I realize we played more games but it is still quite a jump. Metrics aside, I don't think the NCAA will open up that can of worms. 

 

I don't believe NU makes it without a significant, long run in the BTT. But, last year, NU thought they were 'in' at 13-5. It doesn't matter, the conference record. Quality wins matter. Lack of bad losses matter. Nebraska could still factor in both of those because of the possibility of so many Q1/Q2 games on the resume *this* year. Obviously last year it was the opposite situation...

[The Polish Rifle]

2 minutes ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

I don't believe NU makes it without a significant, long run in the BTT. But, last year, NU thought they were 'in' at 13-5. It doesn't matter, the conference record. Quality wins matter. Lack of bad losses matter. Nebraska could still factor in both of those because of the possibility of so many Q1/Q2 games on the resume *this* year. Obviously last year it was the opposite situation...

I get that, but also understand they have left power 5 teams with 2018 Nebraska resume/conf record before, so the precedent was set. In this situation Nebraska would have the worst conf record by a wide margain to ever make it. I know conf record isn't on the team sheets, but they will for sure consider the optics of a 6-14 team making it. Leaving out a 14-4 regular season champ Washington team  (2012) and a 13-5 Nebraska team doesn't decrease the quality of teams making the tournament - some argue it strengthens the perception of teams that make the dance. On the other hand putting in a 6-14 team would raise quite a few eyebrows. 

[AuroranHusker]

23 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

I get that, but also understand they have left power 5 teams with 2018 Nebraska resume/conf record before, so the precedent was set. In this situation Nebraska would have the worst conf record by a wide margain to ever make it. I know conf record isn't on the team sheets, but they will for sure consider the optics of a 6-14 team making it. Leaving out a 14-4 regular season champ Washington team  (2012) and a 13-5 Nebraska team doesn't decrease the quality of teams making the tournament - some argue it strengthens the perception of teams that make the dance. On the other hand putting in a 6-14 team would raise quite a few eyebrows. 

 

The precedent was two Pac-12 teams in a terrible league in 2012. The other 304 teams with 13+ conference wins in a "power league" all had made it. That is not a precedent, at least how I see it... but, yeah, oh well, that's history. It probably will be still only 3 out of 350 by next week's time.

 

And I'm not one to advocate that Nebraska will be 'in' in any scenario other than a B1G title this year. It's denying the falsity that conference record matters, like, at all.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 11, 2019 by AuroranHusker

[bigFRED]

2 hours ago, timofarmer said:

I believe no team has ever received an at large with 16 losses.  May need to Jake Taylor this and win the whole f'n thing.

 

[HuskerFever]

1 hour ago, The Polish Rifle said:

The worst conf records to make the NCAA tournament were 4 games under .500 (98' FSU at 6-10 and 92' ISU at 5-9)...I think we would be naive to think suddenly they're gonna take a team 8 games under .500 in conf as an at large. I realize we played more games but it is still quite a jump. Metrics aside, I don't think the NCAA will open up that can of worms. 

 

That's probably going to be the case. But there also haven't been any similar examples of teams playing 20 game conference schedules. And maybe that's part of the reason why conference records aren't included in the team sheets. I suppose they're looking at more of "controllable" scheduling of games. Who knows?

[The Polish Rifle]

2 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

That's probably going to be the case. But there also haven't been any similar examples of teams playing 20 game conference schedules. And maybe that's part of the reason why conference records aren't included in the team sheets. I suppose they're looking at more of "controllable" scheduling of games. Who knows?

Yep, Regardless of what we do or don't deserve - I don't think the NCAA or the selection committee wants to answer why 6-14 Nebraska got in, and have to re-explain why, every year a team with good metrics and a bad conf record doesn't get in. Just will cause them a headache they probably don't want to deal with.

[tcp]

If this were any other team but ours, letting them into the tourney as is would create howls of derision. That's generally my test. If this were another team, how would I feel about them getting a slot. 

 

I would detest a committee for letting this NU team into the tourney as is, and would probably feel that way unless they made it to the B1G final at a minimum.