New NET Rankings

[Ron Mexico]

2 hours ago, kleitus said:

...and q1 road wins.  That's why the Clemson game was so important.  Those wins are exponentially more important than bad losses... and neither of our losses were what the committee will consider bad.

Bingo. While neither loss will tick a box for us they will also not hurt us.

Q1 road wins are given more weight than Q1 home wins. 

[Nebrasketball1979]

4 minutes ago, Ron Mexico said:

I thought the same thing last year, then OU got in with an 18-14(8-10). They had a losing record for conference, Q1 and Q2. The difference...they had 6 Q1 wins.

Are you shocked? I'm not saying that I like it, I don't like it, but it is the system and they, the committee, are going to use it as the deciding factor to who gets at large bids.

8-10 ACC, BIG 10, and Big 12 teams have occasionally made the dance.  I'd love to see what happens with an 8-12 Big team this year with say 5-6 quad 1 wins.  I do think something similar to this scenario will play itself out this year for 1 Big team.  The league is too deep and good for this to not happen to someone.  I just don't think this someone will be us.

[Ron Mexico]

1 minute ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

8-10 ACC, BIG 10, and Big 12 teams have occasionally made the dance.  I'd love to see what happens with an 8-12 Big team this year with say 5-6 quad 1 wins.  I do think something similar to this scenario will play itself out this year for 1 Big team.  The league is too deep and good for this to not happen to someone.  I just don't think this someone will be us.

By occasionally you mean last year. To your point, I don't believe an 8-12 BIG team would make the tourny, mostly because that would not be a very good team and would have likely not won many Q1 games.

[hskr4life]

5 hours ago, hskr4life said:

Was running through some team sheets today.  Found this interesting.  I have five teams here.  Wonder if you can match the five teams.  **TEAM SHEET IS BEFORE THE GAMES YESTERDAY**

 

(Nebraska, Minnesota, Kansas State, Kentucky, Purdue)

 

Team A- #28 NET- 0-3 Q1, 2-2 Q2, 2-0 Q3, 2-0 Q4- Best win- NET #41(H)- Worst loss- NET #76 (A)

 

Team B- #15 NET- 0-2 Q1, 2-0 Q2, 2-0 Q3, 4-0 Q4- Best win- NET #55 (H)- Worst loss- NET #56 (A)

 

Team C- #42 NET- 0-1 Q1, 1-1 Q2, 3-0 Q3, 3-0 Q4- Best win- NET #70 (N)- Worst loss- NET #110 (A)

 

Team D- #37 NET- 0-1 Q1, 0-1 Q2, 3-0 Q3, 5-0 Q4- Best win NET #84 (H)- Worst loss- NET #86 (N)

 

Team E- #56 NET- 2-1 Q1, 1-1 Q2, 2-0 Q3, 4-0 Q4- Best win NET #15 (H)- Worst loss- NET #117 (A)

 

What does this show me?  The NET shouldn't be the be all/end all right now, because the quadrant system says otherwise.  Also, it's tough to win away from home.  You need to protect the home court and steam those road and neutral wins when you can.

 

I know you're all chomping at the bits for this.  Soo.... Here it goes...

 

Team A- Purdue.  Have played a really tough schedule so far.  THey have lost all of their Q1 games (away from home).  They have a neutral win over Davidson in Q2, but otherwise have lost their other Q2 games away from home.

 

Team B- Nebraska- Lost both of our Q1 opportunities so far, but they were both away from home.  We will have a lot of opportunities this year.  Otherwise we are unblemished in Q2-Q4 which is the only team out of these five that can say that.  If things hold, our Q2 win over Clemson might move up into the Q1 range and Seton Hall could move from a Q3 to Q2.

 

Team C- Kansas State.  That Q2 win is over Penn on a neutral site.  That loss to Tulsa is Q2 now, but could drop.  Other big loss is to Marquette on the road.

 

Team D- Kentucky.  Have not really played anyone with a pulse outside of Duke and Seton Hall.  Seton Hall is a Q2 loss for them and Duke is a Q1 blowout.  Kentucky is the only team without a Q1 and Q2 win within these five teams.

 

Team E- Minnesota.  The team that it was gut wrenching to lose to is the only team out of these five with a Q1 win.  Minny beat us and Washington on a neutral court.  They have the one Q2 loss to Boston College however.  

[uneblinstu]

Clemson's not a Q1 win? They're ranked 69 in the NET.

[big red22]

I just noticed we moved up to 13th.  Clemson is a Q1 win now and it will be at the end of the year too!

[hskr4life]

1 hour ago, uneblinstu said:

Clemson's not a Q1 win? They're ranked 69 in the NET.

 

It was not as of the time of that post which was before the NET updated.  Which also brings up a good point that these will be fluid through the year.

[hhcmatt]

3 hours ago, Ron Mexico said:

Q1 road wins are given more weight than Q1 home wins. 

 

In a formula that's potentially true but is "Q1 road wins" a stat that the committee will see?  At this point it's not in the nitty gritty report.

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats Library/NET Nitty Gritty - Games through December 16, 2018.pdf

 

[HuskerFever]

17 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

 

In a formula that's potentially true but is "Q1 road wins" a stat that the committee will see?  At this point it's not in the nitty gritty report.

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats Library/NET Nitty Gritty - Games through December 16, 2018.pdf

 

 

It will be on the individual team sheets. But I'm hoping we're a little more carbonated and less bubbly to make that a big enough issue come March.

[Ron Mexico]

23 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

 

In a formula that's potentially true but is "Q1 road wins" a stat that the committee will see?  At this point it's not in the nitty gritty report.

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats Library/NET Nitty Gritty - Games through December 16, 2018.pdf

 

It is on the NET/RPI team sheets. 

[cipsucks]

11 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

It will be on the individual team sheets. But I'm hoping we're a little more carbonated and less bubbly to make that a big enough issue come March.

 

Wouldn't more carbonated mean more bubbly?  Just asking...

[cjbowbros]

11 hours ago, hskr4life said:

Was running through some team sheets today.  Found this interesting.  I have five teams here.  Wonder if you can match the five teams.  **TEAM SHEET IS BEFORE THE GAMES YESTERDAY**

 

(Nebraska, Minnesota, Kansas State, Kentucky, Purdue)

 

Team A- #28 NET- 0-3 Q1, 2-2 Q2, 2-0 Q3, 2-0 Q4- Best win- NET #41(H)- Worst loss- NET #76 (A)

 

Team B- #15 NET- 0-2 Q1, 2-0 Q2, 2-0 Q3, 4-0 Q4- Best win- NET #55 (H)- Worst loss- NET #56 (A)

 

Team C- #42 NET- 0-1 Q1, 1-1 Q2, 3-0 Q3, 3-0 Q4- Best win- NET #70 (N)- Worst loss- NET #110 (A)

 

Team D- #37 NET- 0-1 Q1, 0-1 Q2, 3-0 Q3, 5-0 Q4- Best win NET #84 (H)- Worst loss- NET #86 (N)

 

Team E- #56 NET- 2-1 Q1, 1-1 Q2, 2-0 Q3, 4-0 Q4- Best win NET #15 (H)- Worst loss- NET #117 (A)

 

What does this show me?  The NET shouldn't be the be all/end all right now, because the quadrant system says otherwise.  Also, it's tough to win away from home.  You need to protect the home court and steam those road and neutral wins when you can.

I didn’t look besides NET rank this morning so I’ll give it a shot.

Team B is us.

Team D is Kentucky because Seton Hall is 86

Team E is Minn because they are our worst loss

Team A is Purdue because they’ve had a tougher schedule than 

Team C who is Kansas State

Am I right?

Looks like I was.

Edited December 18, 2018 by cjbowbros
I was right!

[Dean Smith]

12 minutes ago, cjbowbros said:

I didn’t look besides NET rank this morning so I’ll give it a shot.

Team B is us.

Team D is Kentucky because Seton Hall is 86

Team E is Minn because they are our worst loss

Team A is Purdue because they’ve had a tougher schedule than 

Team C who is Kansas State

Am I right?

Looks like I was.

And let me predict the Nebraska vs. Oklahoma St. score. 79-56. Am I right? Looks like I was.

[throwback]

Here's where NU's schedule projects in terms of quadrant based on current ratings for NET, KenPom and RPI (just for easy compare to last year) - obviously a huge difference. Projecting 12-15 Q1 games this season vs 7 last year and projecting 9-10 Q2 games vs 6 last year.

 

 

I'm a little surprised that - at this point - the NET projection is not significantly different than the RPI projection.

 

[HuskerActuary]

16 hours ago, Ron Mexico said:

Bingo. While neither loss will tick a box for us they will also not hurt us.

Q1 road wins are given more weight than Q1 home wins. 

I'm not sure this is true. Maybe to a tiny extent. But the formula for determining what qualifies as tier 1 already greatly accounts for home versus away (possibly too much in my opinion). It will be very hard to rack up Q1 wins if you do not win on the road due to the thresholds, so the number of Q1 wins will by default somewhat reflect your ability to win on the road. I think they may also look at overall road record but I don't think they try to split apart Q1 road wins versus Q1 home wins.

[hskr4life]

Our updated team sheet.

 

Q1- 1-2, Q2- 2-0, Q3- 2-0, Q4- 4-0

 

NET #13, KPI #28, RPI #31, KPom #14, SAG #9, BPI #15, SOS #88,

 

http://www.seed-madness.com/TeamStats/QTSNebraska.htm

 

 

[Ron Mexico]

7 hours ago, HuskerActuary said:

I'm not sure this is true. Maybe to a tiny extent. But the formula for determining what qualifies as tier 1 already greatly accounts for home versus away (possibly too much in my opinion). It will be very hard to rack up Q1 wins if you do not win on the road due to the thresholds, so the number of Q1 wins will by default somewhat reflect your ability to win on the road. I think they may also look at overall road record but I don't think they try to split apart Q1 road wins versus Q1 home wins.

I think you are probably right. I remember reading an article from last year that talked about winning on the road and neutral as being viewed with some more importance. Only being able to win at home while struggling on the road does have an impact but it is uncertain if it is considered more significant than winning home. I draw my conclusion/opinion based on the fact that on the team sheet home/away/neutral is listed. Doesn't mean that a road win is given more weight than a home win. So I guess what I'm saying is that I agree with you. 

[hskr4life]

7 hours ago, HuskerActuary said:

I'm not sure this is true. Maybe to a tiny extent. But the formula for determining what qualifies as tier 1 already greatly accounts for home versus away (possibly too much in my opinion). It will be very hard to rack up Q1 wins if you do not win on the road due to the thresholds, so the number of Q1 wins will by default somewhat reflect your ability to win on the road. I think they may also look at overall road record but I don't think they try to split apart Q1 road wins versus Q1 home wins.

 

Currently the Big 10 has six teams that would qualify as a Q1 home game.  As we are one of those teams, there are five teams that qualify for us as a Q1 home game.

 

There are also 11 teams that would qualify as a Q1 or Q2 home game.  Currently the only teams that would be a Q3 home game are Rutgers, Illinois, and Penn State.

[AuroranHusker]

To contrast, here's where NU would be in the old RPI...........

 

 

 

[HuskerFever]

19 minutes ago, AuroranHusker said:

To contrast, here's where NU would be in the old RPI...........

 

 

 

 

That's some strange company to be surrounded around.

[throwback]

Doesn't seem to be much punishment - if any - for playing one D2 team.

 

NU climbed from #14 yesterday to #12 today in the NET rankings - Wisconsin fell 9 spots and dropped behind us after the loss to WKU, while Kansas and Marquette fell behind us yesterday, dropping 2 spots each. Kansas beat #257 Eastern Mich yesterday by 24 pts and, of course, suffered a bit with Arizona St's loss to Princeton, while Marquette has Wisconsin & Louisville on its schedule, so their losses may explain MU's drop. Kentucky passed us after beating L'ville on the road, jumping 11 spots.

 

So it would appear the NET may just ignore D2 games. Or if it counts D2 games, they don't appear to affect you as much as when your Q1 opponents suffer bad losses.

 

[throwback]

Here's what our current team sheet looks like, based on today's NET rankings. 

 

I think we'll have enough Q1/Q2 opportunities going forward.  

 

And Penn St is #77 today, so if they climb two more spots, those two games become Q1 (A) and Q2 (H) versus the Q2 and Q3 they are now. On the other hand, Purdue is #29, so if they fall two spots, that home game becomes a Q2. Things obviously will bounce around quite a bit before mid-March.

 

Still, as it stands now, we'd have 13 Q1 games and 10 Q2 games before the B1G tournament ... versus last year where we had 12 Q1 and Q2 games combined on selection Sunday.

 

 

NEBRASKA	#12		(1-2)	(3-0)	(1-0)	(5-0)
QUAD SHEET	NET		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Miss Val St	H					W
SE La	H					W
Seton Hall	H			W
Missou St	N					W
Texas Tech	N		L
W Illinois	H					W
Clemson	A		W
Illinois	H				W
Minnesota	A		L
Creighton	H			W
Okla St	N			W
CS Fullerton	H					W
Maryland	A		x
Iowa	A		x
Penn St	H				x
Indiana	A		x
Mich St	H		x
Rutgers	A			x
Ohio St	H		x
Wisconsin	H		x
Illinois	A			x
Maryland	H			x
Purdue	A		x
Minnesota	H			x
N'western	H			x
Penn St	A			x
Purdue	H		x
Michigan	A		x
Mich St	A		x
Iowa	H			x
X = current NET ranking

 

[HuskerFever]

3 minutes ago, throwback said:

Still, as it stands now, we'd have 13 Q1 games and 10 Q2 games before the B1G tournament ... versus last year where we had 12 Q1 and Q2 games combined on selection Sunday.

 

Yikes.

 

And the fact that there's rarely any Q3/4 games left means we shouldn't have anymore "real bad" losses either.

[hhcmatt]

26 minutes ago, throwback said:

So it would appear the NET may just ignore D2 games. Or if it counts D2 games, they don't appear to affect you as much as when your Q1 opponents suffer bad losses.

 

it ignores it for SOS. Not positive if it influences the efficiency portion though.

[hskr4life]

2 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Yikes.

 

And the fact that there's rarely any Q3/4 games left means we shouldn't have anymore "real bad" losses either.

 

Simply amazing how far the conference has come in one year.  Makes you wonder what the quads would have looked like last year with the NET vs the RPI...