The rotation this year

[ZAYWHAT!]

So I’m wanting to hear your offseason speculation.   We all know Palmer Watson Copeland and Roby will be starting.    Who will be the fifth starter?    And which other guys will rotate in the most and what kind of minutes do you think they will all get? 

 

And any word on dedoch at practice yet?  Will he be able to play much this year?   

[Huskerpapa]

I have to believe that Thomas will be the 5th starter (at this point).  But that is if he has developed his game.  He seems to compliment the play of the aforementioned four players. But so much depends on the chemistry and development of the entire team.  

 

We need two bigs to step in, and unless there is a surprise addition, it appears that Dedoch and Tanner are it.  Perhaps Nana could play minutes at the four as well.  In  the backcourt, we have a wide open race.  I will enjoy watching how it plays out.  I have not heard much chatter at this point.

[Navin R. Johnson]

I think Allen will be the 5th starter as well.  A good shooter will compliment the slashers.  The problem with Allen is his size or lack there of, on defense.  He and Watson and if we go small with Roby at the 5, might present some defensive struggles.  It will be interesting to see who steps up after the 5 starters.

[Norm Peterson]

9 hours ago, ZAYWHAT! said:

So I’m wanting to hear your offseason speculation.   We all know Palmer Watson Copeland and Roby will be starting.    Who will be the fifth starter?    And which other guys will rotate in the most and what kind of minutes do you think they will all get? 

 

And any word on dedoch at practice yet?  Will he be able to play much this year?   

 

Before I found out what a schmuck Jordy was, I was expecting Jordy to see 20-24 min/game this season.  That was based on a combination of his and Duby's minutes from a year ago.  And I was expecting him to take a big step forward in his game.  I figured we'd see 28-30 minutes from each of Copeland and Roby.  And I was expecting pretty much a 3-man rotation down low with Jordy spelling either of the other two.  Obviously, that's not going to happen.  The only other candidate on the roster to be that third guy is Dedoch "4" Chan.  And he gives up about 50 pounds and 3 inches of height to Jordy, which hurts us on the defensive end, especially when we're playing a team with a big body inside.  What kind of minutes Chan gets is anyone's guess.  Suspect we ride the Roby/Copeland bus as far as their fouls and conditioning level will take us.  That probably means 30-33 minutes each.

 

James Palmer averaged 31 minutes/game last year.  That's not going down.  Might go up. Same with Glynn's 30 minutes.  We don't have Anton or Evan to eat up 50 min/game like they did last year.  And Thomas Allen can replace some of that -- probably going into the low-mid 20s from 10 min/game last season -- but that still leaves room for another full-time player.  And the options we have to fill those minutes are untested and unproven freshmen and sophomores.  From what we're hearing, Amir Harris sounds like the odds-on favorite to pick up most of those spare minutes.  The other 3 are big question marks.  Have no idea the health or status of Karrington Davis, but nothing I saw from Nana or Thor from last year tells me they're shoe-ins to beat him out at the 2-3 spot.  Nana, in fact, might find himself backing up Roby at the 4, such is the state of our depth down low.

 

Let's go with Brady is probably not going to redshirt this year due to Jordy bailing on the program.  But he's still not going to get a lot of minutes until he beefs up to 220-225, and that probably won't happen this year.  So, I'm guessing under 10 min/game for Brady.

 

Jordy really screwed the pooch leaving like he did, if you ask me.  He was in line to get all of his plus Duby's minutes from last year (20+ per game).  Plus, given our depth at guard with the graduations of Anton and Evan, I could have seen rotations with Cope sliding to the 3, Roby playing the 4 and Jordy at the 5.  He could have had a big role on what was shaping up to be the best Husker team in a generation.  And he stuck a shiv in it and walked out the door.  

 

We know pretty much what we have at all the starting spots; what we don't really know is depth behind them.  And I think the question for the season is whether we can get enough of whatever it is Dedoch does to make up for losing 6'11" and 270# of mass inside.  If that 270# of mass inside was going to be dead weight, we're undoubtedly better off without him, but he could have been an important player on a good team.  I suspect he's going to spend the rest of his career with really good seats for watching Dayton play.  And that's his choice.  And we'll live with it.  But I worry what it's going to be like not having a big "big man" on the team.

[Coaches kid]

I agree about Thomas being the 5th starter. If we are going to have a legit 8 man rotation, there are a few gaping question marks:

 

1) Who among the trio of Thor, Nana and Harris will step up to take minutes? My guess is that because of Harris' length and his reported defensive-mindedness, we will see him materialize as the go-to back-up point sometime during the year. I don't think Thomas is a natural point guard, and it would help if Harris can get ready to play early on. As for Nana and Thor, while Nana is clear-cut the better athlete, my sense is that Thor will get the nod over Nana for minutes at the 2 and 3. From what I've seen of the two (admittedly not much), Thor seems to have the higher bball IQ and intangibles at this point in their careers. He seems to be a pretty confident dude when he gets on the floor and he looked like he knew how to play. It sounds like Nana is working hard to become a contributor, so let's hope he progresses substantially over last year.  

 

2) Will Chan be good enough quickly enough to save what should be Heiman's redshirt year? He is an instant upgrade offensively from Jordy, but will he rebound and defend enough to be a significant contributor in an 8-man rotation? He's got good length and he seems to have a great attitude and willingness to work to get better. 

 

3) If Chan isn't ready to contribute 10-12 minutes, how much  will we see Borchardt or Heiman on the floor?  If they don't play will Nana, as some here have suggested, take some minutes at the 4?

 

My hope is that our 8 man rotation includes Harris, Chan and either Thor or Nana. If we save Heiman's redshirt, that would hopefully benefit us in years to come. Right now, I'd bet 60% Heiman does not redshirt, but I hope I'm wrong. At least two of the four mentioned above will simply have to make positive contributions at some point this year for us to weather the ups and downs of conference play. 

[Huskerpapa]

30 minutes ago, Coaches kid said:

I agree about Thomas being the 5th starter. If we are going to have a legit 8 man rotation, there are a few gaping question marks:

 

1) Who among the trio of Thor, Nana and Harris will step up to take minutes? My guess is that because of Harris' length and his reported defensive-mindedness, we will see him materialize as the go-to back-up point sometime during the year. I don't think Thomas is a natural point guard, and it would help if Harris can get ready to play early on. As for Nana and Thor, while Nana is clear-cut the better athlete, my sense is that Thor will get the nod over Nana for minutes at the 2 and 3. From what I've seen of the two (admittedly not much), Thor seems to have the higher bball IQ and intangibles at this point in their careers. He seems to be a pretty confident dude when he gets on the floor and he looked like he knew how to play. It sounds like Nana is working hard to become a contributor, so let's hope he progresses substantially over last year.  

 

2) Will Chan be good enough quickly enough to save what should be Heiman's redshirt year? He is an instant upgrade offensively from Jordy, but will he rebound and defend enough to be a significant contributor in an 8-man rotation? He's got good length and he seems to have a great attitude and willingness to work to get better. 

 

3) If Chan isn't ready to contribute 10-12 minutes, how much  will we see Borchardt or Heiman on the floor?  If they don't play will Nana, as some here have suggested, take some minutes at the 4?

 

My hope is that our 8 man rotation includes Harris, Chan and either Thor or Nana. If we save Heiman's redshirt, that would hopefully benefit us in years to come. Right now, I'd bet 60% Heiman does not redshirt, but I hope I'm wrong. At least two of the four mentioned above will simply have to make positive contributions at some point this year for us to weather the ups and downs of conference play. 

A couple of thoughts:

- I sort of thought that once Nana realized he wasn't going to see much of the floor last season, he lost a bit of his work ethic.  I do not want to disparage Jordy, but it almost appeared that Jordy's lack of work ethic rubbed off a bit on Nana.  I may be waayyy of base, but in my tiny little mind, it appeared to be the case.  I am hoping that Nana worked on his total game, and not just on his crowd pleasing dunks this off-season;

- I have heard through the grapevine that the coaches are a bit disappointed in Thor's basketball growth this off-season.  Instead of working on improving areas of need, he reinforced those issues.  Not sure that is accurate, but I thought I would pass it along. 

 

We really need both of these kids to elevate their games, and I am hoping that we see exponential improvement from both of them.

[bobcat402]

30 minutes ago, Huskerpapa said:

A couple of thoughts:

- I sort of thought that once Nana realized he wasn't going to see much of the floor last season, he lost a bit of his work ethic.  I do not want to disparage Jordy, but it almost appeared that Jordy's lack of work ethic rubbed off a bit on Nana.  I may be waayyy of base, but in my tiny little mind, it appeared to be the case.  I am hoping that Nana worked on his total game, and not just on his crowd pleasing dunks this off-season;

- I have heard through the grapevine that the coaches are a bit disappointed in Thor's basketball growth this off-season.  Instead of working on improving areas of need, he reinforced those issues.  Not sure that is accurate, but I thought I would pass it along. 

 

We really need both of these kids to elevate their games, and I am hoping that we see exponential improvement from both of them.

regarding Nana- unless he totally changed, he was usually one of the first players out for pregame warmups, and the last player out of the arena after games, he would routinely stay after home games and work on his game, until we shut the lights off in the arena, and than he left.

[rwhiston]

1 hour ago, Huskerpapa said:

A couple of thoughts:

- I sort of thought that once Nana realized he wasn't going to see much of the floor last season, he lost a bit of his work ethic.  I do not want to disparage Jordy, but it almost appeared that Jordy's lack of work ethic rubbed off a bit on Nana.  I may be waayyy of base, but in my tiny little mind, it appeared to be the case.  I am hoping that Nana worked on his total game, and not just on his crowd pleasing dunks this off-season;

- I have heard through the grapevine that the coaches are a bit disappointed in Thor's basketball growth this off-season.  Instead of working on improving areas of need, he reinforced those issues.  Not sure that is accurate, but I thought I would pass it along. 

 

We really need both of these kids to elevate their games, and I am hoping that we see exponential improvement from both of them.

I’ll echo what bobcat said about  Nana’s work ethic. As the season went one and he saw less time I think he spent more time in the gym shooting after games and what not. Besides him singing random songs in the car, his Instagram story this summer has been filled with him hitting up the local gyms and working on his. I hope Nana can be the off the bench 3 point slayer. It’d be a great story of grit and gumption. Speaking of which I hope the same for Tanner. 

[khoock]

Heres my take on it:

- Starters will be Glynn Watson, Thomas Allen, James Palmer, Isaac Copeland, and Isaiah Roby. Aside from Thomas Allen, they will all average 30-32 min a game.

- Dedoch Chan will play 12-15 min a game (essentially Jordys time)

- Tanner Borchardt will take Dubys min (3-5 per game)

- Two players out of Amir Harris, Thor Thorbjarnarson, Nana Akenten, and Karrington Davis will lock down a spot. Averaging about 15 min each

- Brady Hieman redshirts 

 

[Huskerpapa]

2 hours ago, bobcat402 said:

regarding Nana- unless he totally changed, he was usually one of the first players out for pregame warmups, and the last player out of the arena after games, he would routinely stay after home games and work on his game, until we shut the lights off in the arena, and than he left.

Excellent to know.

[hhcmatt]

14 hours ago, rwhiston said:

I’ll echo what bobcat said about  Nana’s work ethic. As the season went one and he saw less time I think he spent more time in the gym shooting after games and what not. Besides him singing random songs in the car, his Instagram story this summer has been filled with him hitting up the local gyms and working on his. I hope Nana can be the off the bench 3 point slayer. It’d be a great story of grit and gumption. 

 

I ask this because I want him to contribute: Does he know that it's everything else besides his shooting that is keeping him from playing and is he working on that?

[Coaches kid]

I based my comment about Nana working hard on the reports that he was was putting in work both before and after games. Dimes makes a great point - being a great shooter will only get you so far with this coach and in this league. If the team can't count on you to execute your defensive assignments, or if you are a wing and can't handle the ball or can't pass worth a lick, you won't see the floor very much. 

[Coaches kid]

By the way, ZAYWHAT! may be the best handle of all time on this board.  

[aphilso1]

Stating the obvious: Glynn, Palmer, Cope, and Roby are all getting as many minutes as they can handle.  I'd guess that number averages to 31/player; would love to go a tad higher, but a couple of those guys have a tendency to get in some periodic foul trouble.  31*4=124, leaving 76 mpg for the rest of the team.  And other then Allen, it's hard to say with a high degree of confidence that anyone else is a lock for the rotation.  But this is a speculation thread, so here's my best guess at how the remaining 80 minutes get split:

 

Allen - 25 mpg.  I don't actually think it's a lock that Thomas starts (it's nice to have instant offense come in off the bench), but I do think it's a lock that he gets the 5th most minutes.

 

Davis - 17 mpg. This is assuming he's fully healthy.  But if he is, I think he'll remind us of Evan Taylor.  

 

Dedoch - 13 mpg.  This is a wild guess, but I think he'll hit double digit minutes because a) he plays a position of need and b) he avoids foul trouble.

 

Harris - 10 mpg.  Backup for Watson, and maybe a couple minutes at SG.

 

Tanner/Nana/Thor - total of 11 mpg.  I don't anticipate any of them being in the regular rotation, but do think that all of them will have their number called upon in a key moment during the season.

 

And if by chance my math is off...well, whatever.  

[khoock]

5 minutes ago, aphilso1 said:

Davis - 17 mpg. This is assuming he's fully healthy.  But if he is, I think he'll remind us of Evan Taylor.  

One of the bolder predictions I have seen. Just curious, what makes you think KD will get the most minutes off the bench?

[BigTate]

I don't know anything but I hope Nana has a big year. GBR!

[Norm Peterson]

11 hours ago, aphilso1 said:

Stating the obvious: Glynn, Palmer, Cope, and Roby are all getting as many minutes as they can handle.  I'd guess that number averages to 31/player; would love to go a tad higher, but a couple of those guys have a tendency to get in some periodic foul trouble.  31*4=124, leaving 76 mpg for the rest of the team.  And other then Allen, it's hard to say with a high degree of confidence that anyone else is a lock for the rotation.  But this is a speculation thread, so here's my best guess at how the remaining 80 minutes get split:

 

Allen - 25 mpg.  I don't actually think it's a lock that Thomas starts (it's nice to have instant offense come in off the bench), but I do think it's a lock that he gets the 5th most minutes.

 

Davis - 17 mpg. This is assuming he's fully healthy.  But if he is, I think he'll remind us of Evan Taylor.  

 

Dedoch - 13 mpg.  This is a wild guess, but I think he'll hit double digit minutes because a) he plays a position of need and b) he avoids foul trouble.

 

Harris - 10 mpg.  Backup for Watson, and maybe a couple minutes at SG.

 

Tanner/Nana/Thor - total of 11 mpg.  I don't anticipate any of them being in the regular rotation, but do think that all of them will have their number called upon in a key moment during the season.

 

And if by chance my math is off...well, whatever.  

 

I think you might need to flip the minutes for Davis and Dedoch.  Dedoch is going to play if he's anything better than a stiff because of what you mentioned about fouls and because there's no one else on the roster of scholarship players besides Heiman who's taller than 6'6".

[aphilso1]

17 hours ago, khoock said:

One of the bolder predictions I have seen. Just curious, what makes you think KD will get the most minutes off the bench?

 

I like that he has already adjusted to life as a role player via his senior year at Montverde Academy.  A lot of freshmen struggle with being away from home for the first time, and learning how to make an impact as an ancillary player.  That shouldn't be an issue for him, and I think he will look more like a transfer than a freshman.  I also like that he has shown a willingness to play physical when asked to, and has a fairly quick/efficient release from outside.  I don't recall seeing video of him handling the ball, but that's not a major need for this year's team.  We need role players that are willing to play bigger than their size (check), can hit open shots (check), are versatile defenders able to switch off of ball screens (check), and are mature enough to stay out of the coaches' doghouse (check).  I don't think he's going to light up the stat sheet by any means, nor do I think he's going to be considered the gem of this class when these guys are seniors in 4 years.  But for this year's needs, I think he's got a better shot than most to gobble up some minutes.

[aphilso1]

6 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

I think you might need to flip the minutes for Davis and Dedoch.  Dedoch is going to play if he's anything better than a stiff because of what you mentioned about fouls and because there's no one else on the roster of scholarship players besides Heiman who's taller than 6'6".

 

You may very well be right.  I guess it's just that I can envision more lineups with Davis than with Chan.  I could see Davis filling minutes at the 3 and the 4, as well as essentially coming in at the 2 (slide Palmer up to the 2 and bring Davis in as the 3).  So Davis could theoretically give us minutes as a sub for any of three different starters, assuming Allen is our starting 2.  Chan, on the other hand, will likely only be on the floor in lieu of Copeland or Roby.

Also, there is a chance that Miles would rather have his 6th man be someone who is a change of pace scoring threat.  If so, then that would mean Allen is coming off the bench and someone outside of our top 5 players will be starting.  If that happens, I think KD would be a much more likely 5th starter than Chan.

 

All that being said, there really are only 5 guys on this team that we know for certain will get solid minutes.  Everything else is a guess, and Chan is definitely the safest guess.  This would be a very interesting thread to revisit after the season ends.  Kind of makes me want to dig up last year's predictions and compare them to our actual rotation just to see how far off we all were.

[Norm Peterson]

17 minutes ago, aphilso1 said:

 

You may very well be right.  I guess it's just that I can envision more lineups with Davis than with Chan.  I could see Davis filling minutes at the 3 and the 4, as well as essentially coming in at the 2 (slide Palmer up to the 2 and bring Davis in as the 3).  So Davis could theoretically give us minutes as a sub for any of three different starters, assuming Allen is our starting 2.  Chan, on the other hand, will likely only be on the floor in lieu of Copeland or Roby.

Also, there is a chance that Miles would rather have his 6th man be someone who is a change of pace scoring threat.  If so, then that would mean Allen is coming off the bench and someone outside of our top 5 players will be starting.  If that happens, I think KD would be a much more likely 5th starter than Chan.

 

All that being said, there really are only 5 guys on this team that we know for certain will get solid minutes.  Everything else is a guess, and Chan is definitely the safest guess.  This would be a very interesting thread to revisit after the season ends.  Kind of makes me want to dig up last year's predictions and compare them to our actual rotation just to see how far off we all were.

 

You and I are the only ones I think that see Karrington Davis as a possible contributor.  I hope he's in school and I hope he's healthy.  We could very well need him this year.

[aphilso1]

10 minutes ago, aphilso1 said:

 

You may very well be right.  I guess it's just that I can envision more lineups with Davis than with Chan.  I could see Davis filling minutes at the 3 and the 4, as well as essentially coming in at the 2 (slide Palmer up to the 2 and bring Davis in as the 3).  So Davis could theoretically give us minutes as a sub for any of three different starters, assuming Allen is our starting 2.  Chan, on the other hand, will likely only be on the floor in lieu of Copeland or Roby.

Also, there is a chance that Miles would rather have his 6th man be someone who is a change of pace scoring threat.  If so, then that would mean Allen is coming off the bench and someone outside of our top 5 players will be starting.  If that happens, I think KD would be a much more likely 5th starter than Chan.

 

All that being said, there really are only 5 guys on this team that we know for certain will get solid minutes.  Everything else is a guess, and Chan is definitely the safest guess.  This would be a very interesting thread to revisit after the season ends.  Kind of makes me want to dig up last year's predictions and compare them to our actual rotation just to see how far off we all were.

 

To answer my own question, here's the order of players by minutes per game that I predicted last year vs the actual minutes earned over the course of the season.

 

Predicted:

1. Watson

2(t). Copeland

2(t). Jordy

2(t). Allen

5. Roby

6. Taylor 

7. Palmer 

8. Duby 

9. Gill 

10. Jack 

11. Nana

 

Actual:

1. Palmer (ouch, way off)

2. Copeland (hooray, nailed it!)

3. Watson (not bad)

4. Taylor (not bad, especially since many predicted he wouldn't crack the rotation)

5. Roby (nailed it!)

6. Gill

7. Jordy (ouch)

8. Allen (ouch)

9. Duby

10. Tanner

11. Jack 

12. Nana

 

So in summary, I correctly guessed which guys would ride the end of the bench (Jack and Nana), recognized Taylor would be a top 6 player when most wrote him off, and correctly guessed Cope and Roby's spot in the rotation.  On the other hand, I was waaaaay too optimistic about Thomas and Jordy and waaaaay undersold JP's  abilities.  That info plus $5 will get a drink at Starbucks, so I've got that going for me...which is nice.

[Huskerpapa]

I wonder if I should rotate my tires?

[Blindcheck]

10 hours ago, Huskerpapa said:

I wonder if I should rotate my tires?

Only if is free or you are doing it yourself.

 

The life added to tires by rotation does not cover the cost of rotating tires if you have to pay for it.

[B-town hoopsfan]

Davis will see minutes if he’s here and healthy but does anyone know if he’s even enrolled in classes? 

[big red22]

Roster

 

^^^ Considering he is in his suit and pictured on the roster, you'd have to assume he is in Lincoln and practicing

Edited August 23, 2018 by big red22