2024 B1G Tourney Projection

[throwback]

Yeah, it's probably too early to start running projections, but I'm bored tonight. Seeds based on Torvik's predictions for remainder of season:

 

 

We finish 11-9 in the league in this scenario - with losses at NW, at Indiana & at Ohio St.

Minnesota is projected at 9-11 as the #7 seed

N'western is projected at 13-7 as the #5 seed

So a 2-game gap on either side of us as it stands now.

If we could win Wednesday, though, it'd flip us up to the #5 line, assuming all else remains equal.

 

https://bball.notnothing.net/bracket.php?conf=big10m

Edited February 6, 2024 by throwback

[Norm Peterson]

That would be a good draw AFAIC. Face either Ohio State or Michigan where they're spent from having played the day before, and then we get a shot at redemption against Illinois.

 

Nice thing is we don't have to win it all to make the dance and I don't really want us to win it all. We've played our best coming off of disappointing losses.

[AuroranHusker]

Win at NW, and then top 4-5 are definitely in play. GBR

 

[hhctony]

Man, would I love to see Illinois one more time. 

[REDZONEDAN]

7 minutes ago, hhctony said:

Man, would I love to see Illinois one more time. 

But not those same refs.

[49r]

 

[49r]

 

[throwback]

Wow, still almost a 1/4 chance to get the double-bye. I'm surprised it's that high, but I'll take it. Probably have to go 6-0, though.

[AuroranHusker]

18 minutes ago, throwback said:

Wow, still almost a 1/4 chance to get the double-bye. I'm surprised it's that high, but I'll take it. Probably have to go 6-0, though.

 

Yeah, at 23.7% for top 4, that's somewhat surprising, for sure. And, at 42.5%, NU's chances at 5th/6th seem to be its most plausible outcome. I'd love a 5-1 finish to secure 12-8 in the Big Ten, and a 22-9 regular season, that would seem to position our tourney hopes to be in an awfully good spot for the Big Red. Get a couple wins in the BTT, and we're wondering seeding/location... let's do this, NU! GBR

 

Edited February 13, 2024 by AuroranHusker

[jayschool]

I'm looking forward to a rematch of the 1976 NCAA Championship Game between Indiana and Michigan — in a Wednesday play-in game.

[AuroranHusker]

1 minute ago, jayschool said:

I'm looking forward to a rematch of the 1976 NCAA Championship Game between Indiana and Michigan — in a Wednesday play-in game.

 

And Michigan being at single digit wins for the season. That would be niiice.

 

[hskr4life]

Crazy stat, but after this week, there’ll still be teams with more games left than us.

 

Currently Minnesota, Rutgers, and Illinois still have 8 games left (to our 6)

 

We are the only team to have played 14 B1G games so far.  HOWEVER we will have two breaks of 1 week each before the B1G tournament.  Some teams (like Illinois) have no breaks before the B1G tournament.

 

Rest could be in our favor come time

for the conference tournament.

[hskr4life]

Teams with just 2 March games before the tourney: Neb, PSU, Iowa, Maryland, OSU, Mich

 

Teams who will have 3 conference games and no break before B1G tourney: Pur, I’ll, Wisco, NW, MSU, Minn, IU, Rutgers

[hhcmatt]

Current outlook based on default projections which has Nebraska winning the rest of their games

 

[hskr4life]

*Sees Wisconsin as a 6

 

 

[HuskerFever]

12 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

Current outlook based on default projections which has Nebraska winning the rest of their games

 

I'd even take a #4 seed. If we get to that point we've done more than enough to get off the bubble. So losing our first game in the Big Ten tournament has less impact. If we lose a couple, even with a 1-game bye, losing that Big Ten tournament game could make a huge impact.

[Norm Peterson]

21 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

Current outlook based on default projections which has Nebraska winning the rest of their games

 

 

Not doubting you, but who's saying we win out?

 

We have 5 games left, three on the road, and our current conference record is 8-7. Winning out would put us at 13-7. That would tie for the most conference wins this century and the 2nd best conference win %.

 

If we do that, surely we're a lock regardless what happens in the conference tournament, right?

[unl]

I would love nothing more than to win these five games and one in the NCAA tournament (at least). 
 

But how likely is it? If Nebraska goes 3-2 or even 2-3…then what? Just saying. I think the magic number including the conference tournament is likely 4 to be safely in, and 3 is sweating bullets. 

[HuskerFever]

6 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

Not doubting you, but who's saying we win out?

 

I believe the outcomes are based on expected win probabilities. And the default of us winning our really just means we're favored in those games.

 

The reality? No, we're not likely to win out. Curious what Ken Poneroy and others have for our expected win total in these final games (@49r). That's more telling for the question you're asking, Norm.

[hhcmatt]

10 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Not doubting you, but who's saying we win out?

 

We have 5 games left, three on the road, and our current conference record is 8-7. Winning out would put us at 13-7. That would tie for the most conference wins this century and the 2nd best conference win %.

 

If we do that, surely we're a lock regardless what happens in the conference tournament, right?

 

See below for how the default picks are made

 

[Norm Peterson]

Just now, HuskerFever said:

 

I believe the outcomes are based on expected win probabilities. And the default of us winning our really just means we're favored in those games.

 

The reality? No, we're not likely to win out. Curious what Ken Poneroy and others have for our expected win total in these final games (@49r). That's more telling for the question you're asking, Norm.

 

Exactly. See, though I don't understand how they come up with it, I remember ppl like @49r patiently trying to explain to me that even though we might be favored in all the remaining games, the analytics people might project a different record than 5-0. 

[AuroranHusker]

45 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

Current outlook based on default projections which has Nebraska winning the rest of their games

 

 

 

Purdue already has 3 losses so that "18-2" is out-the-window.

 

[hhcmatt]

Just now, Norm Peterson said:

 

Exactly. See, though I don't understand how they come up with it, I remember ppl like @49r patiently trying to explain to me that even though we might be favored in all the remaining games, the analytics people might project a different record than 5-0. 

 

This bracket generator is taking each game individually.

KenPom is taking probability calculations and adding them.  I would agree that KenPom is more likely to be accurate because it assumes that you won't win all these games where some are coinflips.

 

[AuroranHusker]

14 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Not doubting you, but who's saying we win out?

 

We have 5 games left, three on the road, and our current conference record is 8-7. Winning out would put us at 13-7. That would tie for the most conference wins this century and the 2nd best conference win %.

 

If we do that, surely we're a lock regardless what happens in the conference tournament, right?

 

Yeah, 13-5 in the Big Ten would NEVER be left out. . . 

 

[AuroranHusker]

4 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Exactly. See, though I don't understand how they come up with it, I remember ppl like @49r patiently trying to explain to me that even though we might be favored in all the remaining games, the analytics people might project a different record than 5-0. 

 

Probabilities.