Games Of Note/Bubble Watch 2024

[hskr4life]

12 minutes ago, Vinny said:

I understand NW could easily slide to bubble territory, but don’t we want B1G teams that we play home and away to just keep winning? That way it helps our metrics doubly with each win? Same for Minnesota, but they’re not on the bubble (yet?), so we definitely want them winning?

 

I also kind of have the feeling that NW falling out of the tourney could be really bad for us. They’re only one bubble team, but they change the perception of the whole B1G if they fall out.
 

Then people will wondering if the B1G is a four bid league this year. Less wins against tourney teams for everyone in the league if they fall out, all the metrics have us and NW so close that if one of us falls out, it feels more like the other should be out too.  

 

PSU can lose all they want. I want our NW win to keep being a good win, and our NW loss to keep being a good loss.

 

The bubble is weird. This is probably my longest post ever on this site and I could just keep going in circles.

You can, at this point in the season, make an argument for any conference team to win/lose.  Theres a lot of season left.  So I don’t disagree with what you’re saying.

 

I look at “can this team still drop below us” when I see anyone around the bubble but ahead of us.  I’d rather be above NW and have their win over us “look good” than behind them.  If we had beaten them twice, I’d feel different.  But since we split, I would much rather finish better than them.

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

12 minutes ago, Vinny said:

I also kind of have the feeling that NW falling out of the tourney could be really bad for us. They’re only one bubble team, but they change the perception of the whole B1G if they fall out.
 

Then people will wondering if the B1G is a four bid league this year. Less wins against tourney teams for everyone in the league if they fall out, all the metrics have us and NW so close that if one of us falls out, it feels more like the other should be out too.  

 

PSU can lose all they want. I want our NW win to keep being a good win, and our NW loss to keep being a good loss.

I’m with you on this. I think it’s critical that our top ~5 wins look as good as possible come Selection Sunday. If that means teams like NW and MSU solidify themselves in the field, and K-State gets into the bubble picture, that’s a worthy tradeoff. Especially K-State because we need that road win to look as good as possible.

 

Only clarification I’ll make is I don’t think it matters how “good” our loss to NW looks. Only care about the win looking good. Meaning I don’t think it’s necessary to root for teams like Maryland or Iowa.

[royalfan]

Yes Vinny.  We certainly want Minny to win and I think NW is better for us as well, but I can see the other way there.  

[hhcmatt]

2 hours ago, hskr4life said:

KState jumps to #76 in the NET FWIW.

 

The Goldilocks here is for them to continue to win at home and lose close on the road

[unl]

Nova won at home over seton hall 80-54…

[HuskerBB]

Isn't Iowa at least within some bubble hope range?   Half empty (and quiet) Carver-Hawkeye arena to watch them play Minnesota.   Apparently all the Hawkeye basketball fans stayed home to watch their women's team fall to the Huskers.   PInnacle Bank Magic !!

[hskr4life]

Just now, HuskerBB said:

Isn't Iowa at least within some bubble hope range?   Half empty (and quiet) Carver-Hawkeye arena to watch them play Minnesota.   Apparently all the Hawkeye basketball fans stayed home to watch their women's team fall to the Huskers.   PInnacle Bank Magic !!

Absolutely-- if they can win a bunch with this schedule down the stretch.

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

6 hours ago, hskr4life said:

Iowa over Minny.  Personal opinion, but I’d rather finish ahead of Minny in the standings.  Don’t want that used against us as a talking point.

As we learned in 2018, the committee doesn't care about conference standings. They've even publicly stated that. So I wouldn't factor that into our rooting interests. What I'd care more about is hoping we don't run into Minnesota in our first game, as they'll have home court advantage and are starting to play well.

 

For me this is a tough one to choose. Pros to Minnesota winning:

• Helps our SOS, as we play them twice compared to Iowa only once. This could maybe help us by a spot or two in the metrics, but it may also be completely unimpactful.
• They're flirting with the top 75 in NET (currently 85). Assuming we beat them in Lincoln, it'd be great if that ended up as a Q2 win.

 

Cons to Minnesota winning:

• I personally don't know if I want to see our loss to them turn into Q1 because I think the committee hyper focuses on Q1 records. Our Q1 record is already starting to slide a bit at 3-5. If the roadie at Minnesota slides in there, 3-6 would not be attractive.
• I don't want to see Minnesota get hot right before coming to Lincoln. They're starting to play really well, and while I trust us to get it done in PBA, the game is starting to look a lot tougher.

 

 

[royalfan]

Good points Cookie.  I think we are probably in dire straights if we lose to Minny anyway so I think best off having it be as quality as possibkle, 

[unl]

28 minutes ago, HuskerBB said:

Isn't Iowa at least within some bubble hope range?   Half empty (and quiet) Carver-Hawkeye arena to watch them play Minnesota.   Apparently all the Hawkeye basketball fans stayed home to watch their women's team fall to the Huskers.   PInnacle Bank Magic !!

Kinda wonder who was sitting in row 6 seat 10. Great game. 

[brfrad]

1 hour ago, HuskerBB said:

Isn't Iowa at least within some bubble hope range?   Half empty (and quiet) Carver-Hawkeye arena to watch them play Minnesota.   Apparently all the Hawkeye basketball fans stayed home to watch their women's team fall to the Huskers.   PInnacle Bank Magic !!

Their best win so far is us or Seton Hall.  They have 0 quad 1 wins.  Husker4life did show their remaining schedule.   They do have some opportunities for quad 1 wins.  I just don't know if they are good enough to win those games.

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

1 hour ago, royalfan said:

Good points Cookie.  I think we are probably in dire straights if we lose to Minny anyway so I think best off having it be as quality as possibkle, 

Big comeback by Iowa. I’ll take it. Don't want to see Minny come into PBA feeling good.

[HuskerFever]

8 hours ago, hskr4life said:

Personal opinion, but I’d rather finish ahead of Minny in the standings.  Don’t want that used against us as a talking point.

 

Well...as we've learned the hard way, conference standing means very little when it comes to March Madness selection. At least that particular year.

[cipsucks]

Just curious. When Nebraska wins out in the regular season, where does that put them in the projected brackets?  6 seed, maybe?  

[cipsucks]

I really like the Huskers chances of running the regular season tables. 

[hskr4life]

15 minutes ago, cipsucks said:

Just curious. When Nebraska wins out in the regular season, where does that put them in the projected brackets?  6 seed, maybe?  

 

JMO, but if we run the regular season table and lose game 1 in the Big 10 Tourney, I think we end up in the 8/9 game.  Maybe a 7.

 

There isn't a ton of games out there that can give us a huge seed bump.  Maybe @OSU ends in a Q1 win if we'd win it, but the rest are Q2 and Q3 games.  

[Shawn Eichorst's Toupee]

26 minutes ago, cipsucks said:

Just curious. When Nebraska wins out in the regular season, where does that put them in the projected brackets?  6 seed, maybe?  

 

Nebraska winning out, everything else ends as projected, puts Nebraska at a 5 seed. https://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb

 

[hskr4life]

Results (2/11/24):  In the Big 10, Minny blows like a 13-15 point lead and Northwestern stays strong at home.  Villanova has some work to do, but they stay in bubble contention.  Seton Hall after their 5 game win streak has bow lost 4 of their last six with their only two wins being DePaul and Georgetown.  They are definitely bubbly.  The American continues to march toward a 2 bid league though Memphis can't avoid any slip ups.

• Big 10 Games
  • Penn State 63 @ Northwestern 68
  • Minnesota 85 @ Iowa 90
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • NONE
• Other Bubble Games
  • FAU 95 @ Wichita St 82
  • Seton Hall 54 @ Villanova 80
  • Tulane 78 @ Memphis 90

 

Games To Watch (2/12/24): TCU would fall below .500 in conference with a loss.  We absolutely need Duke to not give Wake any life on the bubble.  Biggest game of the day tomorrow is that Duke game.

• Big 10 Games
  • None
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • Prairie View A&M @ Florida A&M
• Other Bubble Games
  • Wake Forest @ Duke
  • West Virginia @ TCU

[TourneyBound]

2 hours ago, cipsucks said:

I really like the Huskers chances of running the regular season tables. 

We very well could be favored in every game..  prolly not Ohios st but the others we could be if we keep winning

[cozrulz]

3 hours ago, cipsucks said:

Just curious. When Nebraska wins out in the regular season, where does that put them in the projected brackets?  6 seed, maybe?  

 

The question becomes...  Is that 6 seed in Omaha?  And then where?  Boston might be pretty fun.

 

This Nebraska team doesn't know how good they are.

Edited February 12, 2024 by cozrulz

[AuroranHusker]

2 minutes ago, cozrulz said:

 

The question becomes...  Is that 6 seed in Omaha?  And then where?  Boston might be pretty fun.

 

This Nebraska team doesn't know how good they are.

 

I'd guess that Nebraska would have to be a top 4 seed-line to be placed in Omaha....

 

 

[unl]

You guys are giving me anxiety. I just want to make the tournament and be in a position to win the game. lol 

[OmahaHusker]

They absolutely could end up in Omaha. I thought it’d be impossible too, but you have to think they are already trying to avoid rematches until the Sweet 16. And there’s just too many first round locations to worry about that imo. Look at Salt Lake City. Either Utah, Utah State, and/or BYU could end up playing there too. Actually a good chance one of them does end up there. 

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

3 hours ago, OmahaHusker said:

They absolutely could end up in Omaha. I thought it’d be impossible too, but you have to think they are already trying to avoid rematches until the Sweet 16. And there’s just too many first round locations to worry about that imo. Look at Salt Lake City. Either Utah, Utah State, and/or BYU could end up playing there too. Actually a good chance one of them does end up there. 

If we end up in Omaha it’ll be by chance, not by design. So yes it’s possible, but unlikely.

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

7 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Well...as we've learned the hard way, conference standing means very little when it comes to March Madness selection. At least that particular year.

Not only does it mean very little. It means literally nothing. The committee doesn’t even consider it:

 

Selection Criteria