KenPom 2023-2024 KenPom Rankings Thread

[millerhusker]

Nebraska also made Oregon State look like a bunch of scrubs. They aren’t good by any means. But they handled USC and all of their conference losses are by single digits. 

[Huskerpapa]

58 minutes ago, millerhusker said:

Nebraska also made Oregon State look like a bunch of scrubs. They aren’t good by any means. But they handled USC and all of their conference losses are by single digits. 

I sort of chuckled when I read this.  The struggle is defining "good."  For example are Michigan State and/or Minnesota good?  I think they are; but with 325 (plus) Division I basketball teams around, there is a bit of an issue defining the good, bad and ugly.

[Norm Peterson]

So, here's what I don't get about the whole Kenpom and NET thing.

 

Let's take Kenpom. We've lost 3 games total, to the #12 on the road, #14 at home, and #77 on the road.

 

Our wins include at home against #3 and #19, and a road win at #54.

 

We were #43 on 11/23/23 and we hadn't yet played anyone. So how are we only 2 spots better now?

 

I know margin of victory factors in but it still doesn't make sense to me.

 

Then NET. TCU is 20 spots ahead of us in NET. They're 0-3 in Quad 1 games and we're 3-2.

 

Make it make sense.

[Norm Peterson]

SMU is #42 in NET. They're 9-5 overall. They're 0-3 in quad 1 games, 1-2 in quad 2. We're 3-2 in quad 1 and 0-1 in quad 2.

 

I mean, I could cherry-pick all day. But it seems like they're prioritizing final score over just winning.

 

Make it make sense.

[cozrulz]

11 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

SMU is #42 in NET. They're 9-5 overall. They're 0-3 in quad 1 games, 1-2 in quad 2. We're 3-2 in quad 1 and 0-1 in quad 2.

 

I mean, I could cherry-pick all day. But it seems like they're prioritizing final score over just winning.

 

Make it make sense.

 

It didn't last year and it doesn't now.  Seems scoring margin accounts for too much value in the formula.

 

The fix is to just keep winning.

[Handy Johnson]

If we go 8-7 down the stretch (regardless of who we beat) I’d bet a LOT of money we’re in the Tournament. Watching to see how it happens will be absolutely delicious. 

Edited January 11, 2024 by Handy Johnson

[MitchMcGaryMunchies]

19 hours ago, hskr4life said:

T Rank also has us up into the 40s and now with a projected record of 22-9, 12-8

 

And in two of those losses the opponent is only favored by 0.1 points.  Beat Iowa on Friday and T-Rank likely revises prediction to 25-6 

 

[Silverbacked1]

Hey, we’ve kind of cruised in wins on the Peacock so far correct?  May need more games on the channel!

 

I kid, I kid

[Norm Peterson]

Don't look now, but we've jumped to #39, 5th in the Big Ten ahead of Ohio State, which lost tonight at home to Wisconsin by 11.

[HuskerActuary]

13 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

So, here's what I don't get about the whole Kenpom and NET thing.

 

Let's take Kenpom. We've lost 3 games total, to the #12 on the road, #14 at home, and #77 on the road.

 

Our wins include at home against #3 and #19, and a road win at #54.

 

We were #43 on 11/23/23 and we hadn't yet played anyone. So how are we only 2 spots better now?

 

I know margin of victory factors in but it still doesn't make sense to me.

 

 

Margin of victory doesn't just "factor in" on KenPom... it's all that matters. A 1-point win is only slightly better than a 1-point loss. So who we have beaten and who we have lost to don't matter much without knowing the margins. KenPom isn't a tool to compare NCAA Tournament resumes, it's a tool to use as much data as is available to allow for comparing of teams and estimate who is the better/best team on a neutral court.

[hskr4life]

58 minutes ago, HuskerActuary said:

 

Margin of victory doesn't just "factor in" on KenPom... it's all that matters. A 1-point win is only slightly better than a 1-point loss. So who we have beaten and who we have lost to don't matter much without knowing the margins. KenPom isn't a tool to compare NCAA Tournament resumes, it's a tool to use as much data as is available to allow for comparing of teams and estimate who is the better/best team on a neutral court.

If I remember right, KenPom is a metric that is found on team sheets though.

[hskr4life]

8 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

Don't look now, but we've jumped to #39, 5th in the Big Ten ahead of Ohio State, which lost tonight at home to Wisconsin by 11.

 

Hey Hey Hey— your post had me curious so I hopped on the latest net and checked and by golly we jumped all the way from 46 to 41 last night thanks to a plethora of teams losing or looking like poo!

[hskr4life]

All of our metrics really kind of line up this morning for the first time this year

HaslaMetrics: 25 (this one always seems to be high on us)

RPI: 30 (According to Team Rankings)

T-Rank: 39

KenPom: 39

NET: 41

[Norm Peterson]

Number 1 teams sometimes get knocked off (on the road, no less) by teams that aren't very good. The team that just beat Purdue got walloped by Wisconsin the game before, so how good can they really be?

 

If we beat Iowa on the road (not saying we will, certainly no cakewalk) I think people will have to take notice.

 

But, I mean, we gotta beat some teams the rest of the way. Hold serve at home; pick up a couple on the road.

[Norm Peterson]

1 hour ago, HuskerActuary said:

Margin of victory doesn't just "factor in" on KenPom... it's all that matters. A 1-point win is only slightly better than a 1-point loss. So who we have beaten and who we have lost to don't matter much without knowing the margins. KenPom isn't a tool to compare NCAA Tournament resumes, it's a tool to use as much data as is available to allow for comparing of teams and estimate who is the better/best team on a neutral court.

 

OK, well, experience not just in basketball but in life in general tells me that's not a precise instrument for determining which would be the best team on a neutral floor.

 

I remember back in the 90s when USA Basketball fielded the first "Dream Team" in the Olympics. And I don't remember what the countries were so I'll just say it was Greece and Italy.

 

And the USA beat Greece by 30 and then Italy beat Greece by 35, let's say.

 

And the Italians were going nuts thinking their team was better than the Dream Team because their team had beaten the common opponent by more than what the USA had beaten them by.

 

And then we played them and destroyed them worse than we destroyed the common opponent.

 

I'm not arguing with you, HA. I'm arguing with Ken Pomeroy. I'd argue that a 2-point win is far more than 4 points better than a 2-point loss because it shows that the team did what it needed to do to cross the finish line first. Gutted it out. Found a way to win. Etc.

 

I think pulling out the dub, on some level, matters. And if he doesn't factor in *winning* somehow, he's not going to get the best picture.

[49r]

The thing about that @Norm Peterson is, as the season progresses and as the sample size increases, the MOV actually is a fairly accurate indicator of how good a team is relative to all the rest.  Yes in limited context like the example you provided above it is fairly meaningless.  That's why KenPom's predictions generally get more accurate as the season progresses and teams' movement up or down the rankings becomes harder towards the end of the year.

 

There will always be outliers, but statistically speaking, the methods are pretty solid.  KenPom doesn't finish near the top of the HHCC every year for no reason. 

[unl]

28 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

Number 1 teams sometimes get knocked off (on the road, no less) by teams that aren't very good. The team that just beat Purdue got walloped by Wisconsin the game before, so how good can they really be?

 

If we beat Iowa on the road (not saying we will, certainly no cakewalk) I think people will have to take notice.

 

But, I mean, we gotta beat some teams the rest of the way. Hold serve at home; pick up a couple on the road.

I think the goal for this team is basically win out at home, one loss but probably no more than two…and win 1/3 of the roadies. 
 

if we finish 8-7, we’d be 21-10 and 11-9. But our non con was bad. So like Robin said, need to get into the low 20s this year. 8-7 is basically no road wins you know? Why can’t these guys go 9-6 or 10-5? That’s the ultimate goal I think.  This team is different. 

[jsthusker]

10 hours ago, Silverbacked1 said:

Hey, we’ve kind of cruised in wins on the Peacock so far correct?  May need more games on the channel!

 

I kid, I kid

Hey I bought it so that wouldn't be so bad.

[hskr4life]

33 minutes ago, jsthusker said:

Hey I bought it so that wouldn't be so bad.

I think I saw that that both Wednesday games are on Peacock this year too.  So if you want to watch some Wednesday madness… you’ll need it.  Unfortunately the Huskers won’t play until the games are on BTN.

[49r]

50 minutes ago, jsthusker said:

Hey I bought it so that wouldn't be so bad.

 

plus it's dirt cheap too so why not?

[hhcmatt]

We have one more game on Peacock, at home on Tuesday Jan 23rd vs Ohio St

[hhcmatt]

 

Watching to see if we can lock in Hoiberg's first sub-40 KenPom ranking before the Iowa game.

Even if it ticks back up in the 40s it should be a new low KenPom number for HCFH, which currently stands at 44.

[Norm Peterson]

19 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

 

Watching to see if we can lock in Hoiberg's first sub-40 KenPom ranking before the Iowa game.

Even if it ticks back up in the 40s it should be a new low KenPom number for HCFH, which currently stands at 44.

 

That's already happened.

[Norm Peterson]

21 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

 

Watching to see if we can lock in Hoiberg's first sub-40 KenPom ranking before the Iowa game.

Even if it ticks back up in the 40s it should be a new low KenPom number for HCFH, which currently stands at 44.

 

It happened last night after Ohio State lost at home to Wisconsin by 11. I just checked and we're still sub-40.

 

[49r]

I think he means the ranking we have on game day.  We could potentially slide back down into the 40's after tonight's results come in.