Nebraska Bubble Watch

[jayschool]

Latest NET rankings:

8. Michigan State

10. Michigan

11. Purdue

15. Wisconsin

26. Maryland

42. Iowa

49. Penn State

51. Indiana

52. Nebraska

55. Ohio State

56. Minnesota

87. Northwestern

99. Rutgers

105. Illinois

[ladyhusker]

4 hours ago, timofarmer said:

I believe no team has ever received an at large with 16 losses.  May need to Jake Taylor this and win the whole f'n thing.

Unless Texas wins the Big 12 Tournament, they'll wind up with 16 losses and they're still being talked about as a bubble team -- for better or for worse, as of this morning Lunardi still has them in with a bye, even. I know their conference record is better than ours (obviously it's up for discussion whether that matters) but just for the sake of conversation, we aren't the only potentially 16-loss team that could be in the discussion. Raises some questions, at least in my eyes, about jersey bias...

[hskr4life]

Two things help us so far.  The bubble is so weak this year.  Conference wins and losses are not on team sheets.  So therefore, we technically do have a shot.  We need to hit 20 wins though.  So that means four straight.

[jayschool]

1 minute ago, hskr4life said:

Two things help us so far.  The bubble is so weak this year.  Conference wins and losses are not on team sheets.  So therefore, we technically do have a shot.  We need to hit 20 wins though.  So that means four straight.

Probably true, but if we win the first three, that's against NET #99, # 26 and #15. That adds two Q1 victories to the sheet. 

[hskr4life]

Just now, jayschool said:

Probably true, but if we win the first three, that's against NET #99, # 26 and #15. That adds two Q1 victories to the sheet. 

 

I think 19 gets us in the discussion room.  However, I think it's easier to explain away a 20-16 team vs a 19-16 team.

 

Also remember that they preach "entire body of work" and our non-con was darn near perfect with three wins over bubble teams currently.

[Donkey]

14 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

For those holding on to hope. Mind you, it would probably take a run to the BTT final and some bubble teams to drop out early to even have a shot. For those who see this season as already over, here's some ammo to help back that up.

 

(Note: Nebraska's Sunday stats aren't updated yet, I only updated the record and Q2 fields.)

 

NC State / Alabama / Temple / Clemson / Nebraska

Record: 21-10 / 17-14 / 23-8 / 19-12 / 16-15

Avg NET Win: 190 / 116 / 149 / 142 / 133

Avg NET Loss: 39 / 44 / 45 / 32 / 35

 

NET: 32 / 58 / 49 / 35 / 53

KPI: 66 / 50 / 36 / 49 / 73

SOR: 31 / 59 / 37 / 38 / 60

BPI: 23 / 60 / 65 / 30 / 36

POM: 32 / 60 / 69 / 28 / 45
SAG: 30 / 53 / 71 / 34 / 38

Avg: 35.7 / 56.7 / 54.5 / 35.7 / 50.8

 

SOS: 217 / 24 / 79 / 33 / 50

Non-Con SOS: 353 / 42 / 217 / 114 / 184

 

Q1: 2-8 / 2-9 / 2-6 / 1-9 / 2-12

Q2: 6-0 / 7-3 / 6-1 / 6-3 / 6-3

Q3: 3-2 / 5-2 / 7-1 / 6-0 / 3-0

Q4: 10-0 / 3-0 / 8-0 / 6-0 / 4-0

 

Q1+Q2: 8-8 / 9-12 / 8-7 / 7-12 / 8-15

 

Looking at all the numbers, its crazy that 2-3 wins are all that keeps Nebraska from being on the bubble (and, IMO, in the tourney).  I would only worry about the Non-Con SOS if Nebraska had lost to someone other than Texas Tech.

 

3 BIG Tourney wins with a semifinal loss (likely to Michigan St) would leave Nebraska with a Q1/Q2 record of 11-16.  I kind of wonder how the committee would handle that analysis.  

[HuskerFever]

59 minutes ago, tcp said:

If this were any other team but ours, letting them into the tourney as is would create howls of derision. That's generally my test. If this were another team, how would I feel about them getting a slot. 

 

I would detest a committee for letting this NU team into the tourney as is, and would probably feel that way unless they made it to the B1G final at a minimum. 

 

This generally works 99% of the time. But there seems to be around 1-2 every single year where you're thinking "why did they let them in?" or "why didn't they get in?"

 

It's just unfortunate that our team has even been near that territory more often than not.

[throwback]

Rutgers is #99 in NET today, so if we beat them, they likely will fall out of top 100, making it a Q3 game., unfortunately. Maybe we can win, but only by 1 pt.

[AuroranHusker]

3 hours ago, throwback said:

Rutgers is #99 in NET today, so if we beat them, they likely will fall out of top 100, making it a Q3 game., unfortunately. Maybe we can win, but only by 1 pt.

 

I'd rather win by a hundred so our bench can play mop-up time...... oh wait, never mind. 

[hskr4life]

1 minute ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

I'd rather win by a hundred so our bench can play mop-up time...... oh wait, never mind. 

 

Another way to think about that is, if we are up by 25-30, we still have to play 2 starters the entire game.  EEK.

[Handy Johnson]

Saw a 1st 4 in this morning with Indiana, Clemson. 1st 4 out with Creighton. If we beat Rutgers is that an NIT lock? Come back next week with a healthy Allen & Harris plus the ”Trueblood” factor? Just kinda spit ballin here, any thoughts...

[AuroranHusker]

1 hour ago, Handy Johnson said:

Saw a 1st 4 in this morning with Indiana, Clemson. 1st 4 out with Creighton. If we beat Rutgers is that an NIT lock? Come back next week with a healthy Allen & Harris plus the ”Trueblood” factor? Just kinda spit ballin here, any thoughts...

 

 

I am thinkin' neither Allen nor Harris play again during the 2018-19 season.

 

 

[Handy Johnson]

That’s what it’s sounding like... 

[FredsSlacks]

say we beat maryland, are we on the last 8 out?

[throwback]

8 minutes ago, TimSmiles said:

say we beat maryland, are we on the last 8 out?

Should be - our NET resume would be basically equal to that blue team, save for total number of losses and conf record, both of which weren't really part of the equation last season.

Edited March 14, 2019 by throwback

[jason2486]

If we somehow beat Maryland and Wisconsin, depending on other bubble teams and conference tourney upsets, I could see us at least having reason to watch Selection Sunday. We really need Palmer, Watson, and Roby clicking on all cylinders these next 2 days.

 

[AuroranHusker]

2 minutes ago, jason2486 said:

If we somehow beat Maryland and Wisconsin, depending on other bubble teams and conference tourney upsets, I could see us at least having reason to watch Selection Sunday. We really need Palmer, Watson, and Roby clicking on all cylinders these next 2 days.

 

 

I'm at the point where I'm just satisfied NU guaranteed a winning record this season. Anything more is sausage gravy on top of the proverbial biscuit.

[hskr4life]

Also remember that we already lost one potential bid to St Marys.  Can’t have any more of that crap.

[kldm64]

I'm not getting my hopes up as right now, we are a long ways from being in consideration.  We'd have to win probably 3 more games and get to at least the semi-finals at bare minimum to be in consideration.  And even then, not sure that would be enough.

[avfan2121]

10 hours ago, jason2486 said:

If we somehow beat Maryland and Wisconsin, depending on other bubble teams and conference tourney upsets, I could see us at least having reason to watch Selection Sunday. We really need Palmer, Watson, and Roby clicking on all cylinders these next 2 days.

 

If Creighton is on the bubble right now (First Four Out at worst in most brackets, somehow in on quite a few), it feels like 2 wins would have to put us in the conversation. We are currently 2 spots ahead of Creighton in the NET. They have 3 Quad 1 wins to our 2, but both teams have 9 Q1/Q2 wins. And obviously we would pick up 2 more Q1 wins if we make it to the semis.

[The Polish Rifle]

8 minutes ago, avfan2121 said:

If Creighton is on the bubble right now (First Four Out at worst in most brackets, somehow in on quite a few), it feels like 2 wins would have to put us in the conversation. We are currently 2 spots ahead of Creighton in the NET. They have 3 Quad 1 wins to our 2, but both teams have 9 Q1/Q2 wins. And obviously we would pick up 2 more Q1 wins if we make it to the semis.

Other things on the Team Sheets where Creighton out preforms us - Their non-con SOS is 35, ours is 193. They have a 4-7 road record, ours is 2-9. It will be interesting where the conversation goes if we win the next two. though I don't see that happening. 

[avfan2121]

4 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

Other things on the Team Sheets where Creighton out preforms us - Their non-con SOS is 35, ours is 193. They have a 4-7 road record, ours is 2-9. It will be interesting where the conversation goes if we win the next two. though I don't see that happening. 

The thing about non-con SOS for the Big Ten is we played 2 more conference games, meaning 2 less non-con. So worst case scenario we add Rutgers and Northwestern to our non-con, what would the SOS look like? But really you should swap in 2 from the pool of Maryland, Iowa, Michigan St, Purdue, Minnesota, Illinois or Penn State since we played those teams twice. Any of those teams bump up the non-con SOS quite a bit.

 

I also wonder if the committee puts more stock in the SOS numbers or the Quads. We have more Q1/Q2 games and less Q3/Q4 games than Creighton. So why is Creighton's overall SOS 14 and ours is 51? Doesn't really add up.

[OmahaHusker]

2 minutes ago, avfan2121 said:

The thing about non-con SOS for the Big Ten is we played 2 more conference games, meaning 2 less non-con. So worst case scenario we add Rutgers and Northwestern to our non-con, what would the SOS look like? But really you should swap in 2 from the pool of Maryland, Iowa, Michigan St, Purdue, Minnesota, Illinois or Penn State since we played those teams twice. Any of those teams bump up the non-con SOS quite a bit.

 

I also wonder if the committee puts more stock in the SOS numbers or the Quads. We have more Q1/Q2 games and less Q3/Q4 games than Creighton. So why is Creighton's overall SOS 14 and ours is 51? Doesn't really add up.

 

Bottom line is we have 15 losses (soon to be 16, sadly, but realistically) and they have 13 with a better overall SOS and non con SOS. At some point you have to award winning. 

[avfan2121]

2 minutes ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

Bottom line is we have 15 losses (soon to be 16, sadly, but realistically) and they have 13 with a better overall SOS and non con SOS. At some point you have to award winning. 

Unless you are a 22 win Nebrasketball team...I'm not arguing for us to be in now. Just contemplating what 2 wins mean. If Creighton won today and lost tomorrow they would be in the conversation, if not in for some people. If Nebraska won 2 more games, they would have the same number of overall and Q1 wins and should probably be in the conversation.

[hskr4life]

38 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

Other things on the Team Sheets where Creighton out preforms us - Their non-con SOS is 35, ours is 193. They have a 4-7 road record, ours is 2-9. It will be interesting where the conversation goes if we win the next two. though I don't see that happening. 

 

There was a very interesting conversation on either FS1 or ESPN where they basically said Non Con SOS was a crappy metric to look at.  It’s affected by how the lower tiered teams that you play do as much as the upper tiered.  We played a roady at Clemson which was a win and a neutral against Oklahoma State.  Another good example of anbad Non Con SOS but not a bad schedule is NCST.

 

Badically they were saying that playing a team who was a better “buy” game... when both games are for sure wins... shouldn’t have as big of a factor as it does currently.