Nebraska on the Selection Committee Board

[big red22]

16 hours ago, jdw said:

By sor Nebraska has 10 top 100 wins.

A) BPI = Nebraska has 10 Top 100 Wins "3(Top 50)"
RPI = Nebraska has 3 Top 100 Wins "1(Top 50)
C) SOR = Nebraska has 8 Top 100 Wins "2(Top 50)"
D) Kenpom = Nebraska has 9 Top 100 Wins "3 (Top 50)"

If this was a math problem in school and the question asked "Which one doesn't fit in?" The Answer would be "B"

[hskr4life]

7 minutes ago, big red22 said:

A) BPI = Nebraska has 10 Top 100 Wins "3(Top 50)"
RPI = Nebraska has 3 Top 100 Wins "1(Top 50)
C) SOR = Nebraska has 8 Top 100 Wins "2(Top 50)"
D) Kenpom = Nebraska has 9 Top 100 Wins "3 (Top 50)"

If this was a math problem in school and the question asked "Which one doesn't fit in?" The Answer would be "B"

 

This is why RPI should not be solely used.

[Nebrasketball1979]

BREAKING...AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW, THE SELECTION COMMITTEE IS ONLY CONSIDERING 4 BIG 10 TEAMS. 

 

This is from ESPN and the King of Bracketology so it has to be true:

 

 

Hopefully Michigan wins today so that number moves to 5!!!

[hskr4life]

3 minutes ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

BREAKING...AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW, THE SELECTION COMMITTEE IS ONLY CONSIDERING 4 BIG 10 TEAMS. 

 

This is from ESPN and the King of Bracketology so it has to be true:

 

 

Hopefully Michigan wins today so that number moves to 5!!!

 

We didn't move by the way.  Still has Syracuse and UCLA ahead of us in first 4 out.  Then has Texas, USC, Louisville, and Providence as last 4 in.  Then has Bonnies, Baylor, Alabama, Arizona St as last 4 byes.  And here I was about the bubble losses last night.  Yeesh.

[tjp21]

3 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

 

We didn't move by the way.  Still has Syracuse and UCLA ahead of us in first 4 out.  Then has Texas, USC, Louisville, and Providence as last 4 in.  Then has Bonnies, Baylor, Alabama, Arizona St as last 4 byes.  And here I was about the bubble losses last night.  Yeesh.

 

I don't think there's typically a lot of movement in his "Last Four/First Four" etc categories in his daily updates.  Or least it hasn't seemed like it. I'm not paying much attention to Lunardi other than using him as a baseline for which teams I need to cheer against. 

 

I feel like both he and Palm are placing Nebraska strategically in their brackets to draw attention and clicks.  We're a special case this year that doesn't fall in line with the guys who love the metrics. The reason our metrics aren't good is because the way our schedule played out (big conf games on road not at home for example), not really because we continue to fall flat in the games we need to win. We'll see how much it changes next week.  I still think we have a fairly good chance to get in as long as we don't get embarrassed tomorrow.  I'd rather we just win it all and make it a moot point, but we'll see.  

[hskr4life]

2 minutes ago, tjp21 said:

 

I don't think there's typically a lot of movement in his "Last Four/First Four" etc categories in his daily updates.  Or least it hasn't seemed like it. I'm not paying much attention to Lunardi other than using him as a baseline for which teams I need to cheer against. 

 

I feel like both he and Palm are placing Nebraska strategically in their brackets to draw attention and clicks.  We're a special case this year that doesn't fall in line with the guys who love the metrics. The reason our metrics aren't good is because the way our schedule played out (big conf games on road not at home for example), not really because we continue to fall flat in the games we need to win. We'll see how much it changes next week.  I still think we have a fairly good chance to get in as long as we don't get embarrassed tomorrow.  I'd rather we just win it all and make it a moot point, but we'll see.  

 

That's kind of where I am at.  We are setting up to be the team on Selection Sunday that gets in and then everyone complains about because our "metrics just weren't there."

[jayschool]

33 minutes ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

BREAKING...AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW, THE SELECTION COMMITTEE IS ONLY CONSIDERING 4 BIG 10 TEAMS. 

 

This is from ESPN and the King of Bracketology so it has to be true:

 

 

We need a few good days after two stellar months. OK......

 

A few is three or more, right? So we need to win it all then. Good to know.

[FredsSlacks]

still find it hard to believe that 3 17/18 win big 12 teams will make it in.

[big red22]

Another comparison that mutes the pundants like Lunardi and Palm

 

Everyone keeps comparing this B10 to the 2011-2012 Pac 12... And another guy compared this Nebraska team to Creighton in the 2008-2009 season

 

So lets compare 2017-2018 Big 10 vs 2011-2012 Pac 12 vs 2008-2009 MVC

 

These conferences look SO comparable

 

Big 10: 2017-2018	BPI	SOR
MSU	5	4
Purdue	3	5
Michigan	17	10
OSU	11	16
Nebraska	58	34
Maryland	39	50
PSU	28	65
Indiana	75	67
Wisconsin	71	87
Northwestern	72	91
Minnesota	101	104
Iowa	87	116
Illinois	98	130
Rutgers	131	154
Pac 12: 2011-2012	BPI	SOR
Cal	31	52
Oregon	63	56
Washington	80	57
Stanford	75	60
Colorado	89	67
Arizona	51	73
UCLA	70	109
Oregon State	100	123
Washington State	111	141
Arizona State	245	236
USC	224	276
UTAH	328	283
MVC: 2008-2009	BPI	SOR
Creighton	60	57
UNI	90	76
Illinois State	56	80
Bradley	133	116
Evansville	125	129
Wichita State	149	155
Drake	129	164
Southern Illinois	146	177
Missouri State	205	219
Indiana State	217	221

Edited March 1, 2018 by big red22

[hskr4life]

LOL Nebraska would be 1st or 2nd in both of those conferences just based on metrics.  

[big red22]

1 minute ago, hskr4life said:

LOL Nebraska would be 1st or 2nd in both of those conferences just based on metrics.  

I just keep laughing at the we only have 3 top 100 wins claim that Palm keeps using.  SOR is a hell of a lot more accurate with NCAA teams then the RPI.  Might want to stop using that as your go to Palm and Lunardi!

[hskr4life]

Just now, big red22 said:

I just keep laughing at the we only have 3 top 100 wins claim that Palm keeps using.  SOR is a hell of a lot more accurate with NCAA teams then the RPI.  Might want to stop using that as your go to Palm and Lunardi!

 

SOR is good to use at the END of the year.  That is exactly where we are at.  You can't dismiss that one right now because it's best when not being used as a predictive metric.  There isn't any more games to predict.  We did it with our schedule.  SOR should be looked at more than RPI at the end of a year.  Now through the year, I could see where SOR would be misleading.  Every metric has it's flaws, but SOR should be brought up when the Huskers are being discussed in the next week.

[hskr4life]

 

Trollllllll

[HuskerActuary]

Up to fourth team out as of this afternoon's update on Bracket Matrix.

[Vinny]

3 hours ago, HuskerActuary said:

Up to fourth team out as of this afternoon's update on Bracket Matrix.

Noticed on there that one bracket predictor doesn't have Ohio State in the tournament.  http://www.bracketmaker.com/tmenu.cfm?tid=469083&tclass=February 28%2C 2018

 

There is some amazing work being done out there! 

[hskr4life]

16 minutes ago, Vinny said:

Noticed on there that one bracket predictor doesn't have Ohio State in the tournament.  http://www.bracketmaker.com/tmenu.cfm?tid=469083&tclass=February 28%2C 2018

 

There is some amazing work being done out there! 

 

I mean it is a down year.  Aren't we like a 1 bid league according to RPI?

[The Polish Rifle]

More flattering commentary from Palm today:

 

"Nebraska vs. Michigan, 2:30 p.m., Big Ten Network: That sigh of relief you heard yesterday afternoon came from Nebraska after Michigan held off Iowa in overtime. A Michigan loss would have been a dagger in the tournament hopes of the Cornhuskers, who desperately need quality wins. Iowa would have been a useless opponent. Nebraska gets another shot at Michigan, but the Huskers need more than this."

 

WE NEED MORE - If we could somehow get ourselves inserted into the Big 12 tournament next week, we might have a shot.

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

So for those that are concerned with our RPI, a win today would bump us up from 57 to 42 on this website: https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/info/rpi-rankings

 

That would lock us up for a bid, and probably even by-pass a play-in game IMO. I'm of the opinion that we'll still make it to a play-in game if we lose a close game today, as long as nothing too wild happens in conference tournaments.

[colhusker]

22 hours ago, big red22 said:

I just keep laughing at the we only have 3 top 100 wins claim that Palm keeps using.  SOR is a hell of a lot more accurate with NCAA teams then the RPI.  Might want to stop using that as your go to Palm and Lunardi!

Palm is use to using his palm

 

After reading some of my posts I am starting to think I put to much Bailey's in my coffee this morning.

Edited March 2, 2018 by colhusker

[atskooc]

12 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

More flattering commentary from Palm today:

 

"Nebraska vs. Michigan, 2:30 p.m., Big Ten Network: That sigh of relief you heard yesterday afternoon came from Nebraska after Michigan held off Iowa in overtime. A Michigan loss would have been a dagger in the tournament hopes of the Cornhuskers, who desperately need quality wins. Iowa would have been a useless opponent. Nebraska gets another shot at Michigan, but the Huskers need more than this."

 

WE NEED MORE - If we could somehow get ourselves inserted into the Big 12 tournament next week, we might have a shot.

A useless opponent...that would have made it easier for us to win the whole tournament!

 

We still have a chance to earn a trip to the dance, regardless of who we play.  These people are idiots.

[atskooc]

11 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

So for those that are concerned with our RPI, a win today would bump us up from 57 to 42 on this website: https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/info/rpi-rankings

 

That would lock us up for a bid, and probably even by-pass a play-in game IMO. I'm of the opinion that we'll still make it to a play-in game if we lose a close game today, as long as nothing too wild happens in conference tournaments.

But what would a loss to Michigan State do to the RPI? It wouldn't stay stagnant, would it?

[Blindcheck]

Here is the one thing...every at large team will have at least 1 more loss.(many will have 2 losses)

 

Nebraska can only have one more loss, while many of the other teams on the bubble can have 2 more losses (since most play a regular season game this weekend and have tournamnets next week)

 

a loss to Michigan will hurt our chances, but remember that every other bubble team will also have a loss in their conference tourney, too.

 

If they don't have a loss in their tourney, they are the automatic bid.

 

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

38 minutes ago, atskooc said:

But what would a loss to Michigan State do to the RPI? It wouldn't stay stagnant, would it?

 

Good point. According to that website, it'd drop us to 47th. Of course that's assuming no other games are being played. Obviously there will be slight changes to our OWP and OOWP based on other games, plus other teams will move up/down the list based on their outcomes. But I think it's safe to say it'd be in that ballpark.

 

And for good measure, beating both the Michigan schools would put us around 36th leading up to the B1G CG.

[big red22]

Please delete both chart posts above this one is correct...

 

	KenPom	BPI	SOR	RPI	LRMC	Massey	T-Rank	Saragin	Team Rankings	KPI	Average
Baylor	29	35	40	56	32	42	30	23	26	53	36.6
USC	41	45	54	30	36	36	37	37	41	34	39.1
Arizona State	36	43	55	37	28	39	40	42	45	28	39.3
Missouri	40	50	45	38	44	45	39	43	44	31	41.9
Oklahoma	45	44	34	62	49	35	50	39	38	25	42.1
Texas	43	42	41	60	34	43	42	36	39	47	42.7
Notre Dame	31	32	59	69	38	47	36	30	32	63	43.7
Penn State	32	28	63	83	27	47	24	40	37	69	45
Kansas State	46	49	32	62	50	41	46	44	42	44	45.6
Alabama	56	51	62	57	47	44	51	53	46	24	49.1
Maryland	48	41	58	51	43	53	43	41	43	77	49.8
Marquette	49	46	47	64	59	56	47	46	47	52	51.3
Syracuse	52	51	56	48	52	49	52	52	55	48	51.5
UCLA	53	59	60	51	48	54	53	45	48	45	51.6
Nebraska	50	58	33	54	46	53	45	55	63	64	52.1
St. Bonaventure	66	56	35	21	70	57	71	56	65	38	53.5
Boise State	51	53	52	50	56	50	56	58	56	61	54.3
Mississippi State	59	64	49	66	58	48	55	64	53	57	57.3
Providence	72	73	46	42	69	60	68	61	54	40	58.5
Washington	94	108	67	49	93	79	87	92	107	41	81.7

 

 

This is the best example of how metrics need to be used with a grain of salt.  I highlighted Penn State and Maryland, because there is no way they are getting into the field.  Yet if you are to average out all the metrics they are significantly rated higher.

 

Then Ranking systems like KPI almost need to be completely tossed aside.  You can't take that metric seriously, because it has Oklahoma and Alabama 24 and 25.  It also has Washington at 41... compare that to every other sheet?

 

Looking at this chart, you can remove any bracket that has St. Bonaventure, Boise State, Mississippi State, Providence or Washington ahead of us.  Nebraska has the beat in both the Metrics and the Eye test.

 

IMO looking at all the metrics the most consistent one is once again SOR.  Why you ask, because the 20 teams listed are considered the "Bubble Teams". 

 

Ranges

 

Kenpom: 29-94

BPI: 28-108

SOR: 32-67 <<< This seems the most legit comparing like teams(Bubble Teams)

RPI: 21-83

LRMC: 27-93

Massey: 35-79

T-Rank: 24-87

Saragin: 23-92

Team Ranking: 26-107

KPI: 24-77

Edited March 2, 2018 by hhcdimes
fixed i think

[hskr4life]

1 minute ago, big red22 said:

Please delete both chart posts above this one is correct...

 

	KenPom	BPI	SOR	RPI	LRMC	Massey	T-Rank	Saragin	Team Rankings	KPI	Average
Baylor	29	35	40	56	32	42	30	23	26	53	36.6
USC	41	45	54	30	36	36	37	37	41	34	39.1
Arizona State	36	43	55	37	28	39	40	42	45	28	39.3
Missouri	40	50	45	38	44	45	39	43	44	31	41.9
Oklahoma	45	44	34	62	49	35	50	39	38	25	42.1
Texas	43	42	41	60	34	43	42	36	39	47	42.7
Notre Dame	31	32	59	69	38	47	36	30	32	63	43.7
Penn State	32	28	63	83	27	47	24	40	37	69	45
Kansas State	46	49	32	62	50	41	46	44	42	44	45.6
Alabama	56	51	62	57	47	44	51	53	46	24	49.1
Maryland	48	41	58	51	43	53	43	41	43	77	49.8
Marquette	49	46	47	64	59	56	47	46	47	52	51.3
Syracuse	52	51	56	48	52	49	52	52	55	48	51.5
UCLA	53	59	60	51	48	54	53	45	48	45	51.6
Nebraska	50	58	33	54	46	53	45	55	63	64	52.1
St. Bonaventure	66	56	35	21	70	57	71	56	65	38	53.5
Boise State	51	53	52	50	56	50	56	58	56	61	54.3
Mississippi State	59	64	49	66	58	48	55	64	53	57	57.3
Providence	72	73	46	42	69	60	68	61	54	40	58.5
Washington	94	108	67	49	93	79	87	92	107	41	81.7

 

Nice chart.  A couple of my thoughts.

 

1. It's a little worrisome that true bubble teams such as Baylor, Texas, Mizzou, and USC have us beat by about an average of 10 spots.
2. Our SOR sticks out like a sore thumb.  That is pretty remarkable.  If you look at UCLA, Syracuse, and Marquette, they don't have a single metric in the 30's.
3. This list just goes to show that teams like Arizona State and Oklahoma should be more bubbly than they really are.  That stinks!