Bracketology. Spoiler: We're not in it yet.

49r · January 4, 2018

2 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

No cheating! Who on the top of their heads remembers who won the NIT last year?

For a few, you're just brainiac sports junkies. For the vast majority the NIT is no longer remembered by anyone unless that's the only thing you're holding on to because that's either your highest achievement or you bring it up in jest.

Nonetheless, recruits and fans watch and remember the NCAA tournament.

I thought it was UCF, but then I looked it up and found out they lost in the championship game so I was close. FWIW, the team that won it all is having a pretty decent season so far this year.

AuroranHusker · January 4, 2018

9 minutes ago, 49r said:

I thought it was UCF, but then I looked it up and found out they lost in the championship game so I was close. FWIW, the team that won it all is having a pretty decent season so far this year.

Jamie Dixon. Feelin' Froggy

uneblinstu · January 4, 2018

Last two NIT champs followed it up with really good teams the next year. Dollars to donuts both of those teams would have traded it for the play-in game for the NCAA Tournament.

Blindcheck · January 4, 2018

yes, you want to get to the NCAA instead of the NIT....because of the experience the success of the season that got you there.

However, a deep run in the NIT can be better than a bad showing in the NCAA tourney for the future.....but you would never trade the NCAA opportunity for the NIT opportunity.

49r · January 4, 2018

One and done in the NIT is way better than no postseason at all.

hhcmatt · January 4, 2018

12 hours ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

The counter-example that fits that criteria would be Ohio State in 2016. They were 11-7 in the conference, 1-1 in the Big Ten tournament, and 20-13 overall. They finished 7th in the Big Ten; the Big Ten put 7 teams into the tournament (the teams that finished first through sixth plus Michigan, that finished eighth with a 10-8 record). The records of the teams at the top in the standings that year were inflated due to Rutgers, Minnesota, and Illinois all having historically bad seasons, which accounts for an 11-7 team finishing seventh.

Ohio State that year did beat Kentucky (27-9, 4 seed in NCAA), but their next best non-conference win was against Northern Illinois. They lost in the non-conference to Virginia (29-8, 1 seed), UConn (25-11, 9 seed), Memphis (19-15), Louisiana Tech (23-10), and UT Arlington (24-11). Their remaining nonconference wins were against South Carolina State, Mercer, Air Force, Mt. St. Mary's, VMI, and Grambling.

In conference they beat 12-6 Iowa and 10-8 Michigan, and went 9-0 against the bottom six teams in the conference (8-10 Northwestern, 7-11 Penn State, 6-12 Nebraska, 5-13 Illinois, 2-16 Minnesta, 1-17 Rutgers). They finished 3-10 against teams that made the NCAA Tournament and 17-3 against teams finishing with an RPI below 100. Their RPI was 78.

This is a really good example of how we could get to 20 wins and be a top NIT seed.

Losing to UCF to get into the losers bracket and that 1 point loss to Kansas makes 20 wins less of a sure thing.

Who we beat to get to 20 will matter. Getting to 20 by beating Purdue on the road instead of beating Iowa at home will be worth more than the other way around.

I do think we'll have a better SOS than that Ohio St team in 2016 FWIW. Our signature wins are NW on the road and Minnesota at home. Time to start rooting for those teams to win.

OmahaHusker · January 4, 2018

Update on Lunardi's ESPN bracket http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Four Big Ten teams making it as of now. Has Minny being left out but Maryland making it.

uneblinstu · January 4, 2018

We're starting to show up on "in the mix" and NIT lists. And a couple "next four out" mentions as well. Just keep winning.

49r · January 4, 2018

I'll be surprised if Marlyand gets there with their injury situation, and Penn State really missed out on a golden opportunity by not winning that game Tuesday. May have sealed Chambers' fate. All that talent and PSU will likely miss the NCAA tourney.

huskerbaseball13 · January 4, 2018

19 minutes ago, OmahaHusker said:

Update on Lunardi's ESPN bracket http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Four Big Ten teams making it as of now. Has Minny being left out but Maryland making it.

It's fun to look at I suppose but at this time of the game guys like Lunardi are still throwing darts at the board. Baylor in the last 4 in? I'm not sure what of Baylor's #121 RPI and #154 SOS really impresses Joe.

hal9000 · January 4, 2018

50 minutes ago, hhcdimes said:

This is a really good example of how we could get to 20 wins and be a top NIT seed.

Losing to UCF to get into the losers bracket and that 1 point loss to Kansas makes 20 wins less of a sure thing.

Who we beat to get to 20 will matter. Getting to 20 by beating Purdue on the road instead of beating Iowa at home will be worth more than the other way around.

I do think we'll have a better SOS than that Ohio St team in 2016 FWIW. Our signature wins are NW on the road and Minnesota at home. Time to start rooting for those teams to win.

Here we go, BC, here we go! <clap, clap>

hskr4life · January 4, 2018

On 1/4/2018 at 10:15 AM, huskerbaseball13 said:

It's fun to look at I suppose but at this time of the game guys like Lunardi are still throwing darts at the board. Baylor in the last 4 in? I'm not sure what of Baylor's #121 RPI and #154 SOS really impresses Joe.

Big 12! Big 12! Big 12! Big 12!

Aren't they so good that they are supposed to get like 13 teams in the tournament this year?

I realize the Big 12 is really good, but the love fest with them this year get's brought up all the time. In unrelated, but kind of related news, the Husker football team got some good air time when Scott Frost was discussed during the OU vs OSU basketball game last night for an extended period of time.

Edited February 28, 2018 by hskr4life

hhcmatt · January 4, 2018

17 minutes ago, huskerbaseball13 said:

It's fun to look at I suppose but at this time of the game guys like Lunardi are still throwing darts at the board. Baylor in the last 4 in? I'm not sure what of Baylor's #121 RPI and #154 SOS really impresses Joe.

He's projection on how he thinks a team will finish in addition to how they've started. They're going to end up with a top 30 SOS

SkersHoops · January 4, 2018

On 12/29/2017 at 9:58 AM, bigred4 said:

True. Also the committee is no longer ranking wins by top 50, 100 etc. They have 4 "tiers" that are different based on home and away games. Will be interesting to see how that will affect teams compared to the old system. Right now 4 of our losses are Tier 1 and the other is Tier 2. None of our wins are Tier 1, and 1 is Tier 2.

Andy Katz was on BTN live last night. Said some really nice things about Nebraska. Spoke a lot about the "quadrants", some of you have mentioned (as bigred4 did last week), the new system for NCAA selection committee, and how badly we needed the KU win. We are 0-4 in quadrant 1, but 3-1 in the 2nd quadrant.

The breakdown will be as follows:
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.

To those of you that have enough time to read my thoughts on this sheet, I apologize in advance. The new system, as I've found messing around with it all morning, is much more in-depth than the old system, but I think much better. If this was college football and UCF had.......... never mind. I'll stay focused.

Current:

Q1: L's @ St. J's, @ Mich St., @ PukeBirds, vs. KU (0-4)

Q2: W's vs. BC, vs. Minn, @ NW, L UCF* (3-1) VERY SOLID!

Q3: W LB St.* (1-0)

Q4: Rest (7-0) (Never a doubt)

Remaining:

Q1 remaining: @ Purdue, @ OSU, @ Minn, (3)

Q2 remaining: @ Penn St., vs. Mich, @ Wis, vs. Mary, @ Ill, (5)

Q3 remaining: Most likely all the rest (6) (assuming Iowa jumps up)

Q4 remaining: Except vs. Rutgers??? (1)

Some of these teams could move to higher/lower Q's. The game against Wisconsin at home on the 9th is a Q3!!! That seems pretty tough to me. Anyway......

Lets say we get 4 more Q1 games (1 in B1G Tourney) and snag 1 win, finishing 1-7 in quadrant 1. That's obviously not good, but I think the Q1 wins are going to be VERY hard to come by, not just for Nebraska, but for most teams outside the top 25. (KU and Pukebirds :angry: , one of, or both of those would have been nice) But, what I think is going to separate Nebraska from others is that Q2, especially if we can get our Q2 to 7-3. (looks like we'll get 5 or 6 more Q2 games. Hopefully some more B1G teams can make a jump in RPI so we can get a few more Q2 games. (IOWA AT HOME WOULD CURRENTLY BE A Q4 BTW!!!!) I think Q2 (7-3) that would compete very well with all bottom 1/2 NCAA tourney schools and would make it much easier to over look our potentially rough Q1.

I'm just thinking out loud here. My goal was to see how many wins I think we need to get to the tournament.

1 WIN FROM HERE?

Q1 remaining: @ Purdue, @ OSU, @ Minn, (3) (1-2)

CAN WE WIN 3 OF THESE??? (I'm only marking 2 for now)

Q2 remaining: @ Penn St., vs. Mich, @ Wis, vs. Mary, @ Ill, (5) (2-3)

WIN 5 FROM THE REST, PREFERABLY 6, ONLY DROPPING 1 BAD ONE? Let's say we drop 2 though.

Q3: vs. Wis, vs. Illinois, @ Rutgers, vs. Iowa, vs. Rutgers, vs. Indiana, vs. Penn St. (7) (5-2)

Finally, Beat a Q2 in B1G and lose to a Q1.

20-13 overall, 10-8 in conference. 1 win in B1G tourney

We'd be:

Q1: (1-7) (added 1 loss coming in tourney)

Q2: (6-5) (added 1 win coming in tourney)

Q3: (5-2) Drop 2 badish game

Q4: (8-0)

or pick up an extra win in conference play (3-2 in Q2 instead of 2-3) and loss first round (probably be a double bye @ 11-7)

We'd be:

Q1: (1-6)

Q2: (6-5) (1 loss coming in tourney)

Q3: (5-2) Drop 2 badish game

Q4: (8-0)

20-12 overall, 11-7 in conference. No wins in B1G tourney

I first wanted to put this together to make my point that you guys are crazy if you think we're not going to make the tournament getting to 20 wins, but.... I don't think you're far off. I think 20 wins is the MINIMUM and i'd give it a 50/50 shot at getting us in. Now, obviously my records can be different getting to 20 wins (1 more big win, one more lower loss, etc.) that could improve our resume both positively and negatively depending on how you look at it.

I think 21 is going to be really close to a lock though. That's what I think should be the teams "magic number" of wins. 10 more!

You have to remember that there are 20 something teams in-front of Nebraska in the RPI that are going to drop in conference play due to the competition they are playing, win or lose. Skers' SOS and RPI will keep creeping up as long has they take care of business and play like they have shown.

Katz mentioned that HCTM talked about making PBA the toughest home court in B1G. Katz said he hasn't experienced it yet but has been told, "...how great a home court it is and can be....". He spoke very highly of our top 5 playmakers (Glynn, JPJ, Gill, IC, and Roby) He said Nebraska is the one team in the BIG that, "...we're trying to place and don't know yet..."

I hope Katz and the committee finds out that the Skers are a top 4 team in the B1G and I believe we can and will get to 21 wins.

My prediction:

Q1: (2-6) (1 win/1 loss coming in tourney)

Q2: (7-4) (1 win coming in tourney)

Q3: (5-2) Drop 2 lower Q games

Q4: (8-0)

22-12 overall, 11-7 in conference. Runner-up in B1G tourney

Final Season Record: 24-13. Now you do the math.......

OmahaHusker · January 9, 2018

Lunardi hatin

hhcmatt · January 9, 2018

6 hours ago, OmahaHusker said:

Lunardi hatin

At this point it's a pretty fair assessment. We need to win some games we're not expected to win in the future.

Norm Peterson · January 9, 2018

Holding serve at home would mean wins over Michigan, Maryland and Penn State. Do that, and it's not about the Big Ten's coat tails. That alone gets us to 10 conference wins.

One other road win in addition to Rutgers, be it @ PSU, @ Illinois or @ Minnesota, and then maybe a win in the BTT and that should about do it.

hskr4life · January 9, 2018

4 hours ago, hhcdimes said:

At this point it's a pretty fair assessment. We need to win some games we're not expected to win in the future.

Yeah, outside of the Husker loving world, we are still not going to be on people's radars. Honestly, we could win both these games this week and not be on people's radars. Remember the great run we had. We were not really on anyone's radar until late late in the year. It is tough for teams like us to get there when we have never really been there. An 11-6 Minnesota team or Michigan St team or OSU team is a lot different than an 11-6 Nebraska team in the eyes of most everyone outside of Nebraska.

Norm Peterson · January 9, 2018

There is not a team left on our home schedule that you look at them and say "it can't be done."

The current Kenpom rankings of our remaining home opponents: 33, 36, 42, 78, 84, 86, 99, 117.

If we are good enough to make the dance, then we are good enough to win all of those games; if we're not good enough to win all of those games, then we're really not good enough to dance and might as well not talk about it.

Is there a chance we stub our toe against one of those teams? Sure. Will we be underdogs in any of those games? Of course.

But if you don't think we can win all of those games, you might as well start talking about who the next coach should be.

You know what? In addition to thinking we can win all of the above at home, I also think we can avoid losing to any team on the road outside the Kenpom top 50.

How bou dat?

hskr4life · January 9, 2018

7 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

There is not a team left on our home schedule that you look at them and say "it can't be done."

The current Kenpom rankings of our remaining home opponents: 33, 36, 42, 78, 84, 86, 99, 117.

If we are good enough to make the dance, then we are good enough to win all of those games; if we're not good enough to win all of those games, then we're really not good enough to dance and might as well not talk about it.

Is there a chance we stub our toe against one of those teams? Sure. Will we be underdogs in any of those games? Of course.

But if you don't think we can win all of those games, you might as well start talking about who the next coach should be.

You know what? In addition to thinking we can win all of the above at home, I also think we can avoid losing to any team on the road outside the Kenpom top 50.

How bou dat?

There's only two games left on our schedule that I look at and say "Oh man, that'll be tough." @tOSU and @Minny. However we'll see how tOSU comes out against someone not named Michigan State. In addition, I think that Minny is prime to fall and that game is more winnable than it was a few months ago. Everyone else... bring em on. Home or Away, I have seen enough of this team that I'm only worried for the other guy if they take us lightly.

We're good enough to dance. Now we just have to prove it.

uneblinstu · January 9, 2018

I think Michigan's getting right. Trips to Madison and Happy Valley are tricky and I think Illinois is gonna frisky. They're all gonna be tough.

hskr4life · January 9, 2018

2 minutes ago, uneblinstu said:

I think Michigan's getting right. Trips to Madison and Happy Valley are tricky and I think Illinois is gonna frisky. They're all gonna be tough.

That's the weird thing about the Big 10 this year. Every game is going to be tough, but no game is impossible. Yes, it's a "down year" in terms of dominant teams. However, I would say it's an "up year" in terms of bottom feeder teams.

TourneyBound · January 9, 2018

On ‎1‎/‎4‎/‎2018 at 2:54 PM, SkersHoops said:

Andy Katz was on BTN live last night. Said some really nice things about Nebraska. Spoke a lot about the "quadrants", some of you have mentioned (as bigred4 did last week), the new system for NCAA selection committee, and how badly we needed the KU win. We are 0-4 in quadrant 1, but 3-1 in the 2nd quadrant.

The breakdown will be as follows:
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.

To those of you that have enough time to read my thoughts on this sheet, I apologize in advance. The new system, as I've found messing around with it all morning, is much more in-depth than the old system, but I think much better. If this was college football and UCF had.......... never mind. I'll stay focused.

Current:

Q1: L's @ St. J's, @ Mich St., @ PukeBirds, vs. KU (0-4)

Q2: W's vs. BC, vs. Minn, @ NW, L UCF* (3-1) VERY SOLID!

Q3: W LB St.* (1-0)

Q4: Rest (7-0) (Never a doubt)

Remaining:

Q1 remaining: @ Purdue, @ OSU, @ Minn, (3)

Q2 remaining: @ Penn St., vs. Mich, @ Wis, vs. Mary, @ Ill, (5)

Q3 remaining: Most likely all the rest (6) (assuming Iowa jumps up)

Q4 remaining: Except vs. Rutgers??? (1)

Some of these teams could move to higher/lower Q's. The game against Wisconsin at home on the 9th is a Q3!!! That seems pretty tough to me. Anyway......

Lets say we get 4 more Q1 games (1 in B1G Tourney) and snag 1 win, finishing 1-7 in quadrant 1. That's obviously not good, but I think the Q1 wins are going to be VERY hard to come by, not just for Nebraska, but for most teams outside the top 25. (KU and Pukebirds , one of, or both of those would have been nice) But, what I think is going to separate Nebraska from others is that Q2,  especially if we can get our Q2 to 7-3. (looks like we'll get 5 or 6 more Q2 games. Hopefully some more B1G teams can make a jump in RPI so we can get a few more Q2 games. (IOWA AT HOME WOULD CURRENTLY BE A Q4 BTW!!!!) I think Q2 (7-3) that would compete very well with all bottom 1/2 NCAA tourney schools and would make it much easier to over look our potentially rough Q1.

I'm just thinking out loud here. My goal was to see how many wins I think we need to get to the tournament.

1 WIN FROM HERE?

Q1 remaining: @ Purdue, @ OSU, @ Minn, (3) (1-2)

CAN WE WIN 3 OF THESE??? (I'm only marking 2 for now)

Q2 remaining: @ Penn St., vs. Mich, @ Wis, vs. Mary, @ Ill, (5) (2-3)

WIN 5 FROM THE REST, PREFERABLY 6, ONLY DROPPING 1 BAD ONE? Let's say we drop 2 though.

Q3: vs. Wis, vs. Illinois, @ Rutgers, vs. Iowa, vs. Rutgers, vs. Indiana, vs. Penn St. (7) (5-2)

Finally, Beat a Q2 in B1G and lose to a Q1.

20-13 overall, 10-8 in conference. 1 win in B1G tourney

We'd be:

Q1: (1-7)  (added 1 loss coming in tourney)

Q2: (6-5) (added 1 win coming in tourney)

Q3: (5-2) Drop 2 badish game

Q4: (8-0)

or pick up an extra win in conference play (3-2 in Q2 instead of 2-3) and loss first round (probably be a double bye @ 11-7)

We'd be:

Q1: (1-6)

Q2: (6-5) (1 loss coming in tourney)

Q3: (5-2) Drop 2 badish game

Q4: (8-0)

20-12 overall, 11-7 in conference. No wins in B1G tourney

I first wanted to put this together to make my point that you guys are crazy if you think we're not going to make the tournament getting to 20 wins, but.... I don't think you're far off. I think 20 wins is the MINIMUM and i'd give it a 50/50 shot at getting us in. Now, obviously my records can be different getting to 20 wins (1 more big win, one more lower loss, etc.) that could improve our resume both positively and negatively depending on how you look at it.

I think 21 is going to be really close to a lock though. That's what I think should be the teams "magic number" of wins. 10 more!

You have to remember that there are 20 something teams in-front of Nebraska in the RPI that are going to drop in conference play due to the competition they are playing, win or lose. Skers' SOS and RPI will keep creeping up as long has they take care of business and play like they have shown.

Katz mentioned that HCTM talked about making PBA the toughest home court in B1G. Katz said he hasn't experienced it yet but has been told, "...how great a home court it is and can be....". He spoke very highly of our top 5 playmakers (Glynn, JPJ, Gill, IC, and Roby) He said Nebraska is the one team in the BIG that, "...we're trying to place and don't know yet..."

I hope Katz and the committee finds out that the Skers are a top 4 team in the B1G and I believe we can and will get to 21 wins.

My prediction:

Q1: (2-6)  (1 win/1 loss coming in tourney)

Q2: (7-4) (1 win coming in tourney)

Q3: (5-2) Drop 2 lower Q games

Q4: (8-0)

22-12 overall, 11-7 in conference. Runner-up in B1G tourney

Final Season Record: 24-13. Now you do the math.......

I will have what your drinking!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

hhcmatt · January 9, 2018

59 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Honestly, we could win both these games this week and not be on people's radars.

That might do it. I'm not sure about humans but computers would be impressed.

hskr4life · January 9, 2018

Just now, hhcdimes said:

That might do it. I'm not sure about humans but computers would be impressed.

Would PSU now qualify as a Q1 win on the road? Are they Top 75 yet?

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