Scouting Penn St

[hhcmatt]

They're very Nebraska like in the fact that they don't have a dominant inside presence.  If our guys can get into the lane they won't need to worry about shots being blocked.  If you wanted a game where Ray and/or Pitch spot up for 3s, this should be it.

 

Everyone shoots 3s on the team.  The guy who has taken the most is the heaviest guy on the team at 6'7" 235.

 

Tim Frazier is still really, really good.  Keeping the ball out of his hands is a key to winning.

 

We have teams like Penn State and Northwestern in the back of our minds as teams we can go 4-0 against.  There is no doubt those both think that Nebraska is a good bet to go 2-0 against.

[bball23]

This game scares me.  If you look at Penn State's games at home....they are in all of them, and really should have won a few of them.

 

I really hope NU can find a way to get this road win and come home for 2 games.  As you said, they are a lot like us in that they are guard heavy.  I can't think on a Thursday night they will have many fans, so the "true home court" won't be there for them.  Would be great to see us get out early against them and build some road confidence right away.  Play with some great defensive intensity, attack the rim and see what happens. 

[kldm64]

I hope your right Dimes but Northwestern just beat Purdue last night and Penn State has been very close in alot of games.  I agree we are better than both those teams and should be able to go 4-0 against them but just won't be as easy as many people think.  I think the next 3 games are all winnable games against Penn State, Minnesota and Indiana.

[Silverbacked1]

I think we might see some Benny head up on Frazier. He can match his quickness.

[throwback]

Will be interesting to see how we handle success.

 

As we all know that's been a problem in the past -- anyone know what our record is in games after "court storming"?  So far this season, handling success has been a bit of a mixed bag. Arguably our two most "successful"/complete games were the wins against Fla Gulf Coast & Miami. After the FGCU win NU played well for the first half vs WiU before struggling late. And there's no need to rehash what happened after the Miami win, let's just say the opposite happened, sloooooooooow start, stronger finish.

 

I know some wouldn't agree, but I would say NU played a very solid game that could have gone either way against Michigan, and it could be considered a third "successful" game, despite the loss. Next time out, NU's shot selection was pretty poor at times in the 1st half vs Purdue, as we fell back into some bad habits in a game that we felt was winnable (similar to the upcoming game vs PSU). 

 

Hopefully NU has learned something from its experiences earlier this season and can start solidly. Penn St is dangerous at home & the Nits will be extremely desperate to claim what to them looks like a very winnable game. PSU will be ready to go from the opening tip. NU cannot go through the motions early or play selfishly, feeling like they've "arrived" after a really good win vs Ohio St. 

 

Handling success is an important part of the maturation process of a program. Need to play another solid game and not fall back into habits that they avoided vs OSU. I'm not even sure NU must win for us to say that they are learning how to handle success, just that they play solidly for as close to 40 minutes as possible and don't take a step back. But such improvements are much easier to see when you do win. 

[Norm Peterson]

They have 8 players who have attempted at least 25 3 ptrs on the year, but they only have 2 guys who are really good at it (40% or better) and only 1 more who's fairly decent (at around 37%.)  The rest are pretty pedestrian.  By comparison, we have 3 guys who have shot at least 50 3 ptrs and they're all over 35% from that range.

 

Oddly, they're best 3 pt shooter percentage-wise is 5th on the team in attempts.  And the guy with the most attempts is 6th on the team in accuracy at under 30%.  I'm sure their fans wish he wouldn't launch them so frequently. 

 

The guys who scare me on that team are Newbill and Frazier.  Newbill is one of those guys who can just score it from anywhere.  He's a very effective 3 pt shooter at 40% (better than anyone on our team) but the VAST majority of his shots are 2 pt shots.  Which he converts at a rate of almost 52%.

 

Their leading rebounder is a 6'6", 225# junior forward who averages almost 8 boards to go with his 10 1/2 ppg.  Not tall but big and strong.  I wonder how well he guards the floor.

 

This PSU team has two really, really good players but they aren't deep.  We could attack the glass (love the rim) and try to get their guys in some foul trouble.  Newbill and Frazier shoot a lot of free throws but they only have 3 guys who have attempted at least 40 FTs  and we have 5.  While they have more attempts as a team, we have more players drawing fouls.  And if we can get Newbill or Frazier to pick up a couple early in the first half, we could maybe exploit their lack of depth.  And Newbill averages 3 fouls per game.  So there is that.

 

Winnable.  But not guaranteed and not easy and certainly not a cakewalk.  We won't be favored and shouldn't be.  But this one and Northwestern are probably the most winnable road games we have.  So, if we're going to pick up a conference road win, this would be the place to do it.

[Badgett Fan]

They're very Nebraska like in the fact that they don't have a dominant inside presence.  If our guys can get into the lane they won't need to worry about shots being blocked. 

 

That's mostly true, I think.  But, they do have a guy, Donovon Jack, who is one of the better shot blockers in the nation.  He had 5 in PSU's one point loss at Purdue on Saturday, and 5 against MSU, too.

 

Overall, the game looks like another dog fight to me.

 

Unrelated, but how insane is it that about 1/3 of the way into the conference season, Northwestern somehow has more conference wins than Ohio State, Indiana or Illinois?

[Handy Johnson]

I believe we've lost 37 of our last 41 Conference road games, that trend needs to stop. Neutralize their backcourt, particularly Frazier and we should be in good shape.

[hhcmatt]

should be able to go 4-0 against them but just won't be as easy as many people think. 

 

That was the point I was trying to make.  When other schools/school's fans are putting together their list of teams they can beat, we are on it.

 

I'd be pleasantly surprised if we beat both Northwestern and Penn St on the road 

[hhcmatt]

 

They're very Nebraska like in the fact that they don't have a dominant inside presence.  If our guys can get into the lane they won't need to worry about shots being blocked. 

 

That's mostly true, I think.  But, they do have a guy, Donovon Jack, who is one of the better shot blockers in the nation.  He had 5 in PSU's one point loss at Purdue on Saturday, and 5 against MSU, too.

 

Yeah, I completely whiffed on that. Good eye.

[49r]

Will be interesting to see how we handle success.

 

As we all know that's been a problem in the past -- anyone know what our record is in games after "court storming"?  So far this season, handling success has been a bit of a mixed bag. Arguably our two most "successful"/complete games were the wins against Fla Gulf Coast & Miami. After the FGCU win NU played well for the first half vs WiU before struggling late. And there's no need to rehash what happened after the Miami win, let's just say the opposite happened, sloooooooooow start, stronger finish.

 

I know some wouldn't agree, but I would say NU played a very solid game that could have gone either way against Michigan, and it could be considered a third "successful" game, despite the loss. Next time out, NU's shot selection was pretty poor at times in the 1st half vs Purdue, as we fell back into some bad habits in a game that we felt was winnable (similar to the upcoming game vs PSU). 

 

Hopefully NU has learned something from its experiences earlier this season and can start solidly. Penn St is dangerous at home & the Nits will be extremely desperate to claim what to them looks like a very winnable game. PSU will be ready to go from the opening tip. NU cannot go through the motions early or play selfishly, feeling like they've "arrived" after a really good win vs Ohio St. 

 

Handling success is an important part of the maturation process of a program. Need to play another solid game and not fall back into habits that they avoided vs OSU. I'm not even sure NU must win for us to say that they are learning how to handle success, just that they play solidly for as close to 40 minutes as possible and don't take a step back. But such improvements are much easier to see when you do win. 

 

While you make a valid point, I think a caveat should be added here.  Doc's teams have usually not been able to handle success very well.

 

From what I've seen so far, Miles' teams have handled it quite a bit better.  Small sample size right now though.

[throwback]

While you make a valid point, I think a caveat should be added here.  Doc's teams have usually not been able to handle success very well.

 

From what I've seen so far, Miles' teams have handled it quite a bit better.  Small sample size right now though.

 

Excellent point - past problems don't automatically carry forward, especially with new players, new coach, etc. 

[49r]

Penn State appears to have a very Doc Sadler-esque noncon schedule.  They have some good wins in there, but for the most part it's pretty chalky.  As of today, Penn State's KenPom ranking is 109.  (Nebraska-Omaha is 112, FWIW)

 

Penn State Kenpom rundown 1-22-14.
==============================

 

Non Conference (9-4):

217. Wagner - W (74-62)

173. Bucknell - L (80-90)
248. @Penn - W (83-71)
76. La Salle - W (79-72)
342. Longwood - W (93-67)
236. Monmouth - W (84-52)

 

---Barclay's Center Classic---
77. St. John's - W (89-82 OT)
91. Ole Miss - L (76-79)
 

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
3. @Pitt - L (69-78)

265. Marshall - W (90-77)
208. @Duquesne - W (68-59)
89. Princeton - L (79-81 OT)

243. Mount St. Mary's - W (92-82)
 

B1G (0-6):
5. Michigan State - L (63-79)
90. @Illinois - L (55-75)
32. Minnesota - L (65-68)

68. Indiana - L (79-76)
13. @Michigan - L (67-80)
100. @Purdue - L (64-65)

[PimpMario]

if we want any hope of either gonig on a run OR getting a road win we need this win.

 

Penn State is very beatable and we need this game.

 

They are streaky because they shoot a lot of 3s, and we all know if they are falling we could get shellshocked quickly.

[nuled2dance]

Anyone feel this is a great matchup for us. I feel that with a lack of inside presence we should be able to guard the perimeter. This is about us tomorrow night. If we execute and take it to them we will win the game. We can't be sloppy and have any hangover. We win tomorrow this season starts to get interesting with a very beatable team coming to PBA Sunday. We would have a packed energized crowd with a win Thursday. Would be filing to see!

[hhcmatt]

Penn State is a 74% FT shooting team.

If we get them on the ropes, we need to deliver a knockout blow.

 

Speaking of knockout blows, both Minnesota and Indiana overcame deficits in the last 10 minutes of the game to beat Penn St.

It probably doesn't help that they've been off since Saturday but it's possible to wear down Penn St and/or get them to fold at the end of the game.

[hskr4life]

Come out swinging..... BOTH HALVES!!!!

[trickey]

[royalfan]

We aren't terribly likely to win this game and will not be favored to win the game either.  They are pretty good at getting open threes.  They make them we are obviously in deep trouble.  We are going to have to relentlessly attack the rim with the lack of shot blocking to have a decent chance.  We get in a three point shooting contest with them we likely lose.  Frazier is very fast and very good at setting up open threes with his penetration.  Need to try and make him more of a shooter than a distributor of clean 3's.  Hungry team.  I don't think we will win, but believe we can if we create good spacing and attack rim relentlessly. 

[tcp]

this PSU team will be very tough at home. i expect them to try to get us to foul first, not go after a bunch of threes, although we don't defend all that well on the perimeter.

 

if we pass and drive like we did against OSU, we can win this game. Especially if we can get Newbill in trouble. They have no depth, so I expect us to actually run some in this game.

 

I'm expecting a tough (and good) game.

[hhcmatt]

i expect them to try to get us to foul first,

 

Frazier and Newbill are exceptional at this...they draw contact at a Petteway-esque rate.

[royalfan]

Penn St. a 3 point favorite. 

[hskr4life]

Penn St. a 3 point favorite.

I was expecting a 5 to 7 point dog... But I guess 3 is more likely......

[Norm Peterson]

Well, if Kenpom rankings mean anything, we're way ahead of these guys.  They're just a couple of steps in front of UNO and I'd expect us to win safely on the road at UNO.  But we all know that computers can't quite catch the essence of every nuance and intangible. 

 

Crowd shouldn't be much of a factor.  PSU is last in the conference in attendance with fewer than 6,000 fans showing up per game.  (We're 5th, FWIW, at over 15,000 per game.)

[MichHusker]

As long as we don't lay an egg, I feel comfortable that we can win. Just as long as some no namer doesn't decide to go off and have a career game against us