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2024 B1G Tourney Projection

throwback

By throwback
in The Haymarket Hardwood

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jayschool
jayschool

I'm looking forward to a rematch of the 1976 NCAA Championship Game between Indiana and Michigan — in a Wednesday play-in game.

cipsucks
cipsucks

I think we're past the " who would we rather play" game.  We have a really nice team! 

tcp
tcp

all of these new-fangled toys to play with when you're actually a threat to go to the NCAAs! Beats already scoping out next year's roster. Although I guess we're doing that, too....;)   What

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HuskerFever

HuskerFever

Posted
Posted

I believe we've basically guaranteed a top half spot in the Big Ten, given some teams around #8 play each other so one will lose and drop to that spot (i.e., Michigan State and Indiana).

 

Today: #4 seed, possible range from #3 to #8

 

Wednesday: Need Northwestern to lose @ Michigan State for hope for a #3 seed (final chance for a Northwestern loss is vs. Minnesota)

 

Thursday: Need Rutgers to win on the road at Wisconsin for hope for a #3 seed (final chance for a Wisconsin loss is @ Purdue)

hhcmatt

hhcmatt

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

I believe we've basically guaranteed a top half spot in the Big Ten, given some teams around #8 play each other so one will lose and drop to that spot (i.e., Michigan State and Indiana).

 

Today: #4 seed, possible range from #3 to #8

 

Wednesday: Need Northwestern to lose @ Michigan State for hope for a #3 seed (final chance for a Northwestern loss is vs. Minnesota)

 

Thursday: Need Rutgers to win on the road at Wisconsin for hope for a #3 seed (final chance for a Wisconsin loss is @ Purdue)

 

The lowest I could get us was #6

HuskerFever

HuskerFever

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

 

The lowest I could get us was #6

 

That's interesting. Tried playing around with scenarios as well. And I think it has something to do with Michigan State tiebreakers and round-robin records where they'll always (maybe?) be below us in the most extreme scenarios.

unl

unl

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

Currently

 

With a win on Sunday, we're either the 3rd or 4th seed.

With a loss on Sunday, we're anywhere from 3 to 6.

I’m just curious, with a loss would it be unlikely to stay at 4? 

Wisconsin has Rutgers and at Purdue. 
 

Iowa has Illinois. 
 

Minnesota has Indiana and at Northwestern. 
 

Michigan state has vs. Northwestern and at Indiana. 
 

Would need all of those teams to lose once or have a tie breaker over. 

 

And since Northwestern is already ahead of us, this isn’t relevant to my question but they play Michigan state and Minnesota. Most likely they split. 
 

I hate to be optimistic here, but it seems like we have a good shot to stay at 4, maybe even with a loss. But I haven’t run the percentages. 

unl

unl

Posted
Posted

Just found this from the other site. I’ll take it!

 


8 Games that can affect our seeding. 
256 different possibilities.
82 ways to get the 3 seed
89 ways to get the 4 seed
48 ways to get the 5 seed
37 ways to get the 6 seed
171 ways to get the double bye
85 ways to get the single bye

hhcmatt

hhcmatt

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, unl said:

I’m just curious, with a loss would it be unlikely to stay at 4? 

Wisconsin has Rutgers and at Purdue. 
 

Iowa has Illinois. 
 

Minnesota has Indiana and at Northwestern. 
 

Michigan state has vs. Northwestern and at Indiana. 
 

Would need all of those teams to lose once or have a tie breaker over. 

 

And since Northwestern is already ahead of us, this isn’t relevant to my question but they play Michigan state and Minnesota. Most likely they split. 
 

I hate to be optimistic here, but it seems like we have a good shot to stay at 4, maybe even with a loss. But I haven’t run the percentages. 

 

The most likely scenario per https://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb is that we drop to a 5.

If Indiana Rutgers won at the Kohl Center for the first time since 1998, then the likely scenario is Nebraska at a 4.

hhcmatt

hhcmatt

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

I could honestly see that happening.  If that streak weren't so in their heads.

 

Sorry, it's Rutgers who has to win at the Kohl Center. They've actually won 2 in a row at the Kohl Center.

AuroranHusker

AuroranHusker

Posted
Posted

If Nebraska ends up the #3 seed at 12-8, it's likely up against an MSU squad -- Illinois is likely there awaiting us in the next round

 

If Nebraska ends up the #4 seed (since NW stayed ahead of us) at 12-8, it's likely up against Wisconsin -- Purdue is likely there awaiting us in the next round

 

Of course, these are just my projections, a lot could happen in the next week to alter the course of anyone not named Purdue & Illinois

Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty

Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, unl said:

I’m just curious, with a loss would it be unlikely to stay at 4? 

Wisconsin has Rutgers and at Purdue. 
 

Iowa has Illinois. 
 

Minnesota has Indiana and at Northwestern. 
 

Michigan state has vs. Northwestern and at Indiana. 
 

Would need all of those teams to lose once or have a tie breaker over. 

 

And since Northwestern is already ahead of us, this isn’t relevant to my question but they play Michigan state and Minnesota. Most likely they split. 
 

I hate to be optimistic here, but it seems like we have a good shot to stay at 4, maybe even with a loss. But I haven’t run the percentages. 


I ran numbers based on ESPN BPI and have us at a 27% chance at the double bye with a loss at Michigan. Less than one percent of that is actually the 3 seed.

 

Would require one of the following:

 

1. Wisconsin lose one (vs Rut; @ Purdue)+ Iowa lose to Illinois + MSU lose one or both (vs NW; @ Ind) + Minn lose one or both (vs Ind; @ NW)

 

2. Wisc lose both + Iowa lose to Illinois

 

3. NW lose both + Wisc lose both

 

Option 1 is the most likely. Each of the four requirements on their own are fairly high probability. But hitting all four is not. Kinda have a feeling MSU turns it on and finishes 2-0.

 

We’re in an interesting spot too because we don’t want MSU or Wisconsin to drop out of Q1. Rooting against them is a dangerous endeavor.

Minnesota_Husker

Minnesota_Husker

Posted
Posted
The fact that Wisconsin was 16-4 and 8-1 in the B1G, and now appear in danger of not being a Q1 win... that's crazy talk. lol
 

Very curious how the committee treats them.

I think Nebraska and Northwestern deserve to be in.

Michigan state and Wisconsin still seem to be given extra respect when they have worse resumes.

Iowa is interesting as well.


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hhcmatt

hhcmatt

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Minnesota_Husker said:


Very curious how the committee treats them.

I think Nebraska and Northwestern deserve to be in.

Michigan state and Wisconsin still seem to be given extra respect when they have worse resumes.

Iowa is interesting as well.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Wisconsin has 6 quad 1 wins and only played a combined 6 games in quad 3 and 4. It's more impressive than what Nebraska has done in terms of stockpiling wins but I likely won't pick the Badgers to win in the first round of the NCAA tourney. 

hhcmatt

hhcmatt

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, doc1394 said:

Put your green on tonight. I think we’d rather be the 3 than the 4 seed 

 

Michigan St is in real trouble if they don't win this one at home and then at Indiana.

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