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NCAA Tournament Watch

kldm64

By kldm64
in The Haymarket Hardwood

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hhcmatt
hhcmatt

I know i run a Nebraska basketball message board but some days I wished I liked Nebraska Basketball as much as Andy Katz

AGHANSEN
AGHANSEN

A team that was similar to us this year was last years Maryland Terrapins.  The Terps were 20-11 at the end of the regular season, 11-9 in conference, but 1-9 on the road and 10-0 at home. Mary

Norm Peterson
Norm Peterson

Losing to Rutgers really sucks, but isn't it great that we look back and think the bad loss of the season was an overtime loss on the road to a conference foe ranked in the top 100 rather than some mi

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hskr4life

hskr4life

Posted
Posted
  On 2/15/2024 at 4:10 PM, Norm Peterson said:

 

Question: Those teams that have a 33% Q1 win rate and don't get in, do they also have some bad losses they're carrying?

 

We have zero Q4 or Q3 losses. That's unusual for us.

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Can’t speak to the past but for this year, other teams with 3-6 Q1 records

 

Nova: 1-3 in Q3

Utah: Q3 loss

Va Tech: Q3 loss

TCU: Two more Q3 + Q4 games than us 

Oklahoma: One more Q3 + Q4 game than us

Miss St: Q3 and Q4 loss

 

Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty

Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty

Posted
Posted
  On 2/15/2024 at 4:10 PM, Norm Peterson said:

 

Question: Those teams that have a 33% Q1 win rate and don't get in, do they also have some bad losses they're carrying?

 

We have zero Q4 or Q3 losses. That's unusual for us.

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From 2023:
Ok St: Q1 6-12, Q2 4-2, Q3 3-1, Q4 5-0

Rutgers: 4-7, 6-3, 2-4, 7-0

Clemson: 4-4, 3-2, 7-2, 9-2

New Mexico: 3-5, 3-2, 10-3, 5-1

Wisconsin: 5-7, 6-6, 1-1, 5-0

Vandy: 5-11, 5-0, 5-2, 5-1

 

So your answer is a resounding yes. Ok State and Wisconsin each had a Q3 loss. Everyone else had multiple Q3+Q4 losses. 2022 is the same story. So that’s good.

Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty

Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty

Posted
Posted
  On 2/15/2024 at 4:26 PM, hhcmatt said:

 

KSU looks likely to drop most of the rest of their games on the schedule.  Will root for a 20+ point win.

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Good news is Big 12 has insanely good NET rankings. So losses won’t hurt them much and wins will help a lot.

 

I think if they win the home games they’ll likely be favored in (TCU, BYU, WVU) and then upset one of the others (ISU at home; Texas, Cincy, KU on road) they’ll be top 75 going into the conference tournament. May not even need one of those upsets. Losing any of those games won’t ding them at all.

hskr4life

hskr4life

Posted
Posted
  On 2/15/2024 at 5:41 AM, FredsSlacks said:

i talked to an individual in the know. he said tominaga is nebraska's golden ticket to a tourney birth and that his international fame will be enough to put nebraska in over other fringe tourney teams.

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Of course we have to take care of business and be in a position where they can justify us… but I 100% believe they’d take Tominaga’s bubble

story over another bubble team.

 

He adds eyes, he’s a character (most love him for it too), he could go off.

 

I said this in another thread, but Fox Spirts Basketball Twitter account did a tweet thread with basketball valentines.  Tominaga was one of them.  How many times have accounts like that tweeted about Nebraska basketball on a random Wednesday where we weren’t playing?

Chuck Taylor

Chuck Taylor

Posted
Posted (edited)
  On 2/15/2024 at 1:19 PM, millerhusker said:

Yep, contrary to what some think, the powers that be will look for any good reason to include Nebraska in March madness this year. Entertaining guards on potential Cinderellas are what creates the madness in March.  The storylines of Tominaga, Hoiberg and Nebraska never winning a tourney game all work in our favor. Having one of the better fan bases in college sports probably helps too. 
We still have to take care of business down the stretch. 

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Count me as one of "some" who think otherwise.

The people on the committee have to be able to defend their selections. They're not looking for storylines, or else a team that made the national title game in 2022 would have gotten the benefit of the doubt last year. They also had POY candidate Armando Bacot. However, North Carolina stayed home. Here's the Heels' resume:

  Quote

The 2022-23 Tar Heels went 1-9 in NET quad 1 games (their only Q1 victory being a home win against #6 Virginia).[1] They finished the season 20–13 overall and 11–9 in ACC play

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They also finished 43 in KenPom and 46 in NET. Plus they had zero Q3 or Q4 losses and a 4-7 road record. 

 

There was easily enough story line to twist that record into an NCAA berth, if that actually was done. 

Edited by Chuck Taylor
hskr4life

hskr4life

Posted
Posted (edited)
  On 2/15/2024 at 9:42 PM, Chuck Taylor said:

Count me as one of "some" who think otherwise.

The people on the committee have to be able to defend their selections. They're not looking for storylines, or else a team that made the national title game in 2022 would have gotten the benefit of the doubt last year. They also had POY candidate Armando Bacot. However, North Carolina stayed home. Here's the Heels' resume:

They also finished 43 in KenPom and 46 in NET. Plus they had zero Q3 or Q4 losses and a 4-7 road record. 

 

There was easily enough story line to twist that record into an NCAA berth, if that actually was done. 

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1-9 in Q1 games isn’t going to get it done. Sorry. A story doesn’t save that.  3+ Q1 wins is easier to sell. They also had just 2 wins against the projected field.  Their resume just couldn’t be sold as “last years champs”.

Edited by hskr4life
millerhusker

millerhusker

Posted
Posted
  On 2/15/2024 at 9:42 PM, Chuck Taylor said:

Count me as one of "some" who think otherwise.

The people on the committee have to be able to defend their selections. They're not looking for storylines, or else a team that made the national title game in 2022 would have gotten the benefit of the doubt last year. They also had POY candidate Armando Bacot. However, North Carolina stayed home. Here's the Heels' resume:

They also finished 43 in KenPom and 46 in NET. Plus they had zero Q3 or Q4 losses and a 4-7 road record. 

 

There was easily enough story line to twist that record into an NCAA berth, if that actually was done. 

Expand  

We definitely have to take care of business down the stretch and an earn a bid. But say there are 12 teams who have good enough resumes for the last few at-large spots. I absolutely think those things mentioned help us out. There are tens of millions of basketball fans in Japan. They’d all be watching and the NCAA knows that.

cornfed24-7

cornfed24-7

Posted
Posted
  On 2/15/2024 at 10:42 PM, millerhusker said:

We definitely have to take care of business down the stretch and an earn a bid. But say there are 12 teams who have good enough resumes for the last few at-large spots. I absolutely think those things mentioned help us out. There are tens of millions of basketball fans in Japan. They’d all be watching and the NCAA knows that.

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Oooor they could be like, "Oh you want to be Nebraska Basketball fans?!? Let me show what that means...BOOM! Last 4 out!" 

Dead Dog Alley

Dead Dog Alley

Posted
Posted (edited)
  On 2/15/2024 at 10:00 PM, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:


They already have 18 wins on a very tough SOS (at least according to the numbers). They could finish 1-6 and they’d still be in, which if you follow that Twitter account it fits into his definition of Lock.

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Kansas has got Doc Sadler.  No team with Doc Sadler has ever finished the regular season 1-6.  Well, except for these four, but otherwise it hasn't happened.

 

2020   0-16  Nebraska

2016   1-9     Southern Miss

2012   1-8    Nebraska

2010    1-9   Nebraska

Edited by Dead Dog Alley
hhctony

hhctony

Posted
Posted
  On 2/16/2024 at 3:13 PM, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

I’ve seen it stated that teams who host their conference tournament have those games counted as home games for the purpose of quads. And their opponents count it as a road game.

 

Does anyone know if this applies to Minnesota this year? It’s not in their arena but it’s darn close.

Expand  

 

Believe they number they are using this year is three home games at the arena the game is being played. So Minnesota will be neutral. This appears to be affecting St. John's for the Big East tournament. All St. John's games will be home for the Johnnies. 

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