Setting a tone our 1st 4 conference games : IU, at UW, PU, at Iowa

[hskr4life]

5 hours ago, Ron Mexico said:

Agreed. What is MWC narrative? 

I’ve seen some suggest that they are a 5 and maybe even 6 bid league if things go right for Boise.  But I just don’t see Boise outside of them winning conference tournament.

 

4 bids. Sure.  5 bids… meh maybe with how soft the bubble is.

[HuskerFever]

So did we set a tone?

[Nebrasketball1979]

8 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

So did we set a tone?

 

A good old fashioned curb stomping was a nice way to start!

[AuroranHusker]

What a tournament-quality effort despite a lot of factors working against NU, and the Huskers still pulled away with multiple shooters hittin' from three when the game was on the line. NU pulled away from IU, and it was no fluke whatsoever. GBR

 

[Ron Mexico]

On 12/27/2023 at 2:07 PM, 49r said:

KenPom says 1-3 is most likely:

 

Wed Jan 3		83	Indiana	W, 77-71	70	71%	Home		×
Sat Jan 6		14	Wisconsin	L, 77-67	66	20%	Away		×
Tue Jan 9		2	Purdue	L, 81-72	70	21%	Home		×
Fri Jan 12		57	Iowa	L, 83-80	73	39%	Away		×

IU game played out the way I was hoping it would. We set a tone. That Minny loss is now way back in the rear view mirror.

Next up, a huge road game against Wiscy. This game to me was just behind the IU game.  A realistic opportunity to have a Q1 win.

This is a huge resume filler game when the committee talks about Q1 wins and road wins.

For this block of 4 games I view Purdue as the least important. I'll take that home loss if it means we can close out by beating both Wiscy and Iowa.

Notice how our NET has increased from I think 57 to 61. 

I like data. I like data so much that it is my job. I think I'm going to dig into NET calculations.

 

[Norm Peterson]

On 12/28/2023 at 11:42 AM, Norm Peterson said:

 

Just me, but I like dividing the conference schedule into fourths and look into how we might do in each 5-game stretch.

 

We've already played 2 conference games and are 1-1. If Rienk is 100% and available for IU, I think there's a good chance we start out 2-3 in our first 5 conference games.

 

The second 5, we'd need to hold serve at home against Northwestern and Ohio State and somehow pick up a road win against either Iowa, Rutgers or Maryland. Let's say we can go 3-2 in that stretch, and get to .500 in conference at the halfway mark.

 

The third 5, we have Wiscy, Michigan, and PSU at home with road contests against Illinois and Northwestern. Again, hold serve at home, and that's 3 more.

 

Final 5 is a grinder with must-win home games against Minnesota and Rutgers sandwiched between road contests at Indiana, Ohio State and Michigan.

 

If we somehow find ourselves with 10 conference wins heading into that final Michigan game, there will really be something on the line when we go into Ann Arbor. And I saw the stat recently that Michigan has played the fewest bench minutes of any team in the conference so far (IIRC), so maybe they've got some tired legs by then.

 

It obviously won't be easy, but I think we have a shot at 11 conference wins. If the team that beat Michigan St and Kansas St shows up the rest of the year, I think we can do it. If the team that got down by 10 points in the first half at home against North Dakota shows up for any of those "could win" games, we might not get anywhere close to 11 conference wins.

 

But we've got a puncher's chance to get to 11. Add that to 10-1 in the non-conference and we're sitting pretty good for a NIT 5-seed and a first-round game at Mississippi St.

 

I projected 2-3 in our first 5. We already have that with 2 more opportunities for wins in the first 5 conference games. But we've already cleared 2.

 

I think we *can* win 3 out of each of the next 3 sets of five games, including a closing W in Ann Arbor, to get to 11 conference wins. I think 11 conference wins is in play. If the team that showed up against MSU, KSU, IU and the first halves of Minnesota and SDSU is the team that we see most of in the 2nd half of the season, I don't think we're going to have to talk about the bubble.

 

I'll quote myself: "We're either good enough or we're not." Computers are irrelevant to what happens on the floor. We're either good enough to win the games we need to win to make the tourney or we don't belong in the tourney. And the team I've been seeing has enough pieces to make this really, really interesting.

[Ron Mexico]

So far we are 1-1 during this block of 4 games.  Chalking Purdue as a loss. 

Iowa on the road is going to be a big game. As of now it is Q1 game. Win that and we are 2-2. 

Of note, MSU win has now moved up to a Q1, which is big.

 

Our NET is now 59 and RPI has increased 49 from it's previous low of 31. This is concerning and something to keep a close eye on.

 

Going forward we need to do a better job of strategic scheduling. Those 4 300+ NET games are not helping.

[hskr4life]

1 minute ago, Ron Mexico said:

So far we are 1-1 during this block of 4 games.  Chalking Purdue as a loss. 

Iowa on the road is going to be a big game. As of now it is Q1 game. Win that and we are 2-2. 

Of note, MSU win has now moved up to a Q1, which is big.

 

Our NET is now 59 and RPI has increased 49 from it's previous low of 31. This is concerning and something to keep a close eye on.

 

Going forward we need to do a better job of strategic scheduling. Those 4 300+ NET games are not helping.

 

Looks like the NET only dropped us 1… which is nice.  I thought it’d be more.

 

That Minny loss isn’t looking as bad in metrics eyes.  Also the KSU and MSU wins will hold us up for a bit.  Grabbing a win Tuesday would do wonders for our metrics.  Understatement of the century I know.

[Ron Mexico]

Here we sit at 2-1 in this block of 4, which hits my expectation with 1 game left in this block.

Thus far we have hit one of my goals which was to get another Q1 win (NET). We now have 2 although that number will move up and down. KSU and MSU are both on the border. Purdue as of now is our only guaranteed Q1 win. Right now our NET is at 58. Not sure if this is actually current.

Win at Iowa and they could end up being a Q1 game and a road game as well.

To me this is the toughest block of 4 games.

  

[AuroranHusker]

This team is a group of fighters. It will take that to compete hard in the brutal B1G this season. Let's keep it rollin'! GBR

 

[49r]

8 hours ago, Ron Mexico said:

Here we sit at 2-1 in this block of 4, which hits my expectation with 1 game left in this block.

Thus far we have hit one of my goals which was to get another Q1 win (NET). We now have 2 although that number will move up and down. KSU and MSU are both on the border. Purdue as of now is our only guaranteed Q1 win. Right now our NET is at 58. Not sure if this is actually current.

Win at Iowa and they could end up being a Q1 game and a road game as well.

To me this is the toughest block of 4 games.

  

 

It's 46 as of this morning.

[Norm Peterson]

Huskers 3-2 in Big Ten play. Tied with Purdue and Indiana for 5th in the league.

 

I think it is realistic for us to win 3 in each of the next 3 sets of 5 games. I didn't think we'd do that in the first set.

 

But when you come to play us in PBA, you better bring your A-game.

[throwback]

At the one-quarter point, NU's 5 opponents so far are 13-8 in league play / 11-5 outside of playing NU - above average. 

 

Next 5 opponents are 7-12 in league play so far - below average.

 

Final 10 opponents are 20-18, so back to the norm.

 

Big opportunity upcoming over the next 5 to make a move.

 

[49r]

On 12/27/2023 at 2:07 PM, 49r said:

KenPom says 1-3 is most likely:

 

Wed Jan 3		83	Indiana	W, 77-71	70	71%	Home		×
Sat Jan 6		14	Wisconsin	L, 77-67	66	20%	Away		×
Tue Jan 9		2	Purdue	L, 81-72	70	21%	Home		×
Fri Jan 12		57	Iowa	L, 83-80	73	39%	Away		×

 

I expected to go 1-3 in this 4 game stretch.  We went 2-2 so we're ahead of the game really.  In my mind Iowa was a "house money" game.  Would be nice to win, but we've already exceeded expectations so losing is not the end of the world.  Looking forward to the discussion of the next 4 @Ron Mexico

[cornfed24-7]

44 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

I expected to go 1-3 in this 4 game stretch.  We went 2-2 so we're ahead of the game really.  In my mind Iowa was a "house money" game.  Would be nice to win, but we've already exceeded expectations so losing is not the end of the world.  Looking forward to the discussion of the next 4 @Ron Mexico

And quite honestly if it had been 1-3 that's not that bad since the "1" was #1 Purdue. Gives us a top end bullet point come stat sheet time. Thought we were a bubble team heading into this season...and we are. And now we have a feather in our cap.

 

I could see us getting hot and having an unimaginable seasons and I could see us tanking. Gotta cap the emotions with this team because who knows how this goes? 

 

I'm going 2-2 over the next 4

[hskr4life]

14 minutes ago, cornfed24-7 said:

And quite honestly if it had been 1-3 that's not that bad since the "1" was #1 Purdue. Gives us a top end bullet point come stat sheet time. Thought we were a bubble team heading into this season...and we are. And now we have a feather in our cap.

 

I could see us getting hot and having an unimaginable seasons and I could see us tanking. Gotta cap the emotions with this team because who knows how this goes? 

 

I'm going 2-2 over the next 4

If there’s a 4 game stretch out there that can kind of give us some breathing room and maybe allow us to play “with house money” for a change… it’s this next four game stretch.  This is the only one that I see where we can realistically go 4-0.  Two home games and our roadies are Maryland and Rutgers.  2-2 should be the bare minimum here.  3-1 probably expected for a true tournament team.  4-0 is not out of a the question for a team that’s a tournament lock.

[thrasher31]

15 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

If there’s a 4 game stretch out there that can kind of give us some breathing room and maybe allow us to play “with house money” for a change… it’s this next four game stretch.  This is the only one that I see where we can realistically go 4-0.  Two home games and our roadies are Maryland and Rutgers.  2-2 should be the bare minimum here.  3-1 probably expected for a true tournament team.  4-0 is not out of a the question for a team that’s a tournament lock.

3-1 is my expectation honestly. I don't think Fred has a win vs NW yet since taking over, so that one will be tough. OSU is a good team also. Winning both of those would be incredible. Both road games are winnable though, even if winning on the road in this conference is a damn hard thing to do. Drop 1 and I'm happy, but drop 2 and I'm a bit concerned. 

Edited January 13 by thrasher31

[cornfed24-7]

51 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

If there’s a 4 game stretch out there that can kind of give us some breathing room and maybe allow us to play “with house money” for a change… it’s this next four game stretch.  This is the only one that I see where we can realistically go 4-0.  Two home games and our roadies are Maryland and Rutgers.  2-2 should be the bare minimum here.  3-1 probably expected for a true tournament team.  4-0 is not out of a the question for a team that’s a tournament lock.

I agree with all of this. But I have zero trust in the mental makeup of this team  concerning their ability to win on the road in the Big Ten so 2-2. And I think if this team can scratch and claw for the bare minimum in each of the 4 game stretches we are a right side of the bubble team. 

[thrasher31]

I was curious on what the road record is for big ten teams in big ten play only starting back in December. So far road teams are 8-29 in big ten play this season. Wisconsin has two of those wins as well. Will be interesting to watch as the season goes on. Need to get a few on the road though @Rutgers, @Maryland, and @Michigan are the best bets imo. Bart has us winning 3 over the season, with those first two I mentioned, Michigan as a slight underdog and IU as a win. 

Edited January 13 by thrasher31

[roscoe]

Dang it thrasher31 you took some of my snowed-in research.

Big 10 teams lost 22 home non-conference games. 8 of those came against teams currently ranked in top 25 and 4 more were against teams currently receiving votes. 

Mississippi St. listed as 10 seed per Bracketmatrix has 2 wins versus Big 10 teams.

Michigan has 3 home losses to teams in neither if those categories.

Purdue is undefeated at home overall this year.

Wisconsin's only home loss is to Tennessee. 

Illinois' only home loss is to Marquette. 

Nebraska with a home loss to ranked team.

Minnesota only home non-con loss is to Missouri.

Maryland only non-con home is Davidson.

Ohio St. only non-con home loss is to Texas A&M who is listed as 8 seed per Bracketmatrix

Indiana has home non-con losses to UConn, Auburn & Kansas.

Iowa has 2 home losses. (Oklahoma & Michigan?)

Think this shows just how tough it is to win on the road. 

Big 10 losses to Bucknell, Georgia Tech and Chicago St. are other non-con losses that look bad.

Tried to double check my findings but space bar took dump on my laptop so did input on phone. 

[Ron Mexico]

On 1/13/2024 at 1:16 PM, 49r said:

 

I expected to go 1-3 in this 4 game stretch.  We went 2-2 so we're ahead of the game really.  In my mind Iowa was a "house money" game.  Would be nice to win, but we've already exceeded expectations so losing is not the end of the world.  Looking forward to the discussion of the next 4 @Ron Mexico

I'll take that 2-2, especially since one of those was against Purdue. We took a NET hit dropping to 53. To me it is obvious that in order to overcome this we are going to have to win a couple of road games and finish 12-8 or better or go on a run in the BIG tournament. I'm very concerned.

 

Next 4:

3 of these 4 teams have a very similar resumes to us. We need to start separating ourselves.

This is an extremely important group of games. Need to go 3-1 or better and must win both home games.

 

at Rutgers (NET 94) - This is the most important road game for this block and is almost a must win and that is because Rutgers is at the bottom of the conference.

NWU (NET 69) -  This one is the most important of the 4. At the end of the season we could very well be competing with them for a tourney spot. Their current NET is 69. 

OSU (NET 47) - This one is a must win. See NWU.

at Maryland (NET 99) - Similar to Rutgers, except with a better record. 

 

[49r]

KenPom says 3-1 in the next 4.

 

Wed Jan 17		94	Rutgers	W, 70-69	69	54%	Away		×
Sat Jan 20		54	Northwestern	W, 74-70	65	64%	Home		×
Tue Jan 23		46	Ohio St.	W, 76-73	67	60%	Home		×
Sat Jan 27		67	Maryland	L, 70-68	67	45%	Away		×

 

 

[Ron Mexico]

Jumping ahead a bit; we have one more opportunities for a home Q1 game and 3 more road game opportunities.

I'll be curious to see the impact on our NET when we go 2-2 or better.

1. MUST MUST MUST win these home games

2. MUST MUST MUST avoid blowout losses

 

The more I look at this block of games the more important they are, especially when looking ahead.

We need to start stacking wins. We also need road wins, if for nothing else than to build confidence that we can win on the road in this conference.

Go 3-1 or 4-0 with Wiscy coming to the vault, as we kickoff the 2nd half of conference play. That game will be exciting!

[Ron Mexico]

I could very well change the name of this thread to "Finding out what you are made of."

All is not lost and 3-1 is still a possibility. We saw last year how this team was able to bounce back and even earlier this season with back-to-back losses to Creighton and then Minnesota. 

We took a hit on NET, which is baffling as this was road game and we weren't blown out. Would love to get my hands on that formula.

[hskr4life]

2 minutes ago, Ron Mexico said:

I could very well change the name of this thread to "Finding out what you are made of."

All is not lost and 3-1 is still a possibility. We saw last year how this team was able to bounce back and even earlier this season with back-to-back losses to Creighton and then Minnesota. 

We took a hit on NET, which is baffling as this was road game and we weren't blown out. Would love to get my hands on that formula.

Rutgers also took a NET drop for beating us…