KenPom 2023-2024 KenPom Rankings Thread

[AuroranHusker]

1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

Also— if anyone is interested in our team sheet outside of Quads…

 

 

 

 

Think of what that "Average NET" win would look like without that Purdue victory.... whoa.

 

 

[Chuck Taylor]

FYI

[cozrulz]

1 hour ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

 

Think of what that "Average NET" win would look like without that Purdue victory.... whoa.

 

 

 

think if we had Minnesota and Rutgers wins...

[kldm64]

14 minutes ago, cozrulz said:

 

think if we had Minnesota and Rutgers wins...

 

Or just one of them.

[49r]

26 minutes ago, cozrulz said:

 

think if we had Minnesota and Rutgers wins...

 

Yup.  16-3 (6-2) would probably have us ranked and we'd have multiple threads talking about what region we would prefer and what our path to the Big Ten championship looked like.

[FredsSlacks]

it really doesn't matter what our NET is if we don't get 20+ wins

[hskr4life]

3 minutes ago, FredsSlacks said:

it really doesn't matter what our NET is if we don't get 20+ wins

While true… not getting to 20+ wins means going 5-7 down the stretch which also means that our NET (as well as other metrics) will reflect that.

[AuroranHusker]

1 hour ago, cozrulz said:

 

think if we had Minnesota and Rutgers wins...

 

yeah, let's get the one at Maryland

[cozrulz]

3 minutes ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

yeah, let's get the one at Maryland

 

let's get Ohio State first

[AuroranHusker]

8 minutes ago, cozrulz said:

 

let's get Ohio State first

 

Yeah, yeah, clearly, you had mentioned road games' lost, which can't be changed. And I said, get the next.

 

[royalfan]

Wonder how bad losing to Chicago st set NW back.  Since we play them twice and are a really solid team, I also wonder how bad that ends up hurting as as well.  

[cipsucks]

Probably the only time I post on this thread.  I've never been interested in this stuff, but I know a lot of you guys are.  I understand.  Gives reasons to watch other games and project on the Huskers.  I've had 2 different NCAA Tourney projection brackets pop up on my home page this afternoon.  No reason, I don't search out those sites.  I know someone is monitoring my HHC content. I'm just saying...  

 

Anyway, both projections had us as a 10 seed playing Villanova in the first round.  Second round games, 1 had us playing Kansas and the other playing Auburn. Fun to speculate.  Now, just go out and win the damn games!

[AuroranHusker]

 

Nebraska's a 9-seed on this projection. Q1 victories will be at a premium.

 

 

[throwback]

That KSU win is going to be a huge one if they can stay in Q1. 

 

[hskr4life]

12 minutes ago, throwback said:

That KSU win is going to be a huge one if they can stay in Q1. 

 

Current leaders of the B12, but 5 of their next 6 are against ranked teams and their non-ranked is a road game at Oklahoma St.

[AuroranHusker]

2 hours ago, throwback said:

That KSU win is going to be a huge one if they can stay in Q1. 

 

 

Yes. That Purdue victory will remain Q1 the whole season. The MSU rise to top 30 would also push that to Q1, eventually, if they wind up top 3,4,5 in the league, I'd imagine.

 

Edited January 23, 2024 by AuroranHusker

[Ron Mexico]

NET rankings, while not the determining factor, except for Q1 games, definitely has an impact on how many bids a conference will get.

Currently the BIG is ranked 3rd.

The BIG seems to have 3 tiers of teams I order by NET.

Tier 1 -                   

NET/Team           Conference Rank:           Conference:                     Overall:             Quad 1:

2 Purdue             2                                       6-2/.75                              17-2/.895          7-1                         

11 Illinois              3                                      5-2/.714                            14-4/.778           2-3

13 Wisconsin       1                                      6-1/.857                            14-4/.778           5-3

Tier2 - 

NET/Team           Conference Rank:           Conference:                     Overall:             Quad 1:

21 MSU                5                                      4-4/.500                           12-7/.632           2-5

46 tOSU              8                                      3-4/.429                           13-5/.722            1-1

49 Iowa               8                                      3-4/.429                           11-7/.611             0-6

55 Nebraska       5                                      4-4/.500                           14-5/.737            3-3

78 NWU              4                                       4-3/.571                           13-5/.722            3-4

Tier 3 -

NET/Team           Conference Rank:           Conference:                     Overall:             Quad 1:

94 Michigan        13                                    2-5/.286                           7-11/.389            2-4

95 Rutgers          12                                     2-5/.286                           10-8/.556           1-8

98 Maryland       11                                     3-5/.375                            11-8/.579            1-3

99 Minnesota     8                                       3-4/.429                          12-6/.667            0-2

100 Indiana         5                                      4-4/.500                           12-7/.632            0-6

120 PSU              11                                     3-5/.375                           9-10/.474             1-4            

 

Remember that this is ordered by NET ranking and split in tiers based on my opinion of nearest competitors. My analysis is based on how our conference NCAA resume. 

Tier 1 -

These are the 3 best teams in the conference. They will be fighting for 1st place until the very end.

Tier2 - 

Nebraska has 3 more Q1 games that would greatly boost our resume. We have an incredible opportunity to stack wins. We need to split with OSU and either upset or close loss to Wisconsin at home and then steal 2 on the road from Maryland, NWU, or IU. We need to avoid blowout losses!!

This is where we sit within this tier of teams...for now. We are just ahead of NWU. I think we are in a dead tie with MSU. Despite both tOSU and Iowa having a better NET we have the better resume. From a resume perspective we are the 4th/5the best team in the conference. These are the teams we are competing against for a tournament birth. 2 or 3 teams from this group will get in and the rest will be left out. 

Iowa has ZERO Q1 wins. They don't have another chance for a Q1 game until Feb 17. Their final 6 games is a brutal stretch. They play Illinois twice and Wisconsin along with MSU and NWU on the road.

OSU needs a couple of more Q1 wins and guess what, they have an opportunity tonight. As a matter of fact, their next 3/4 (depending on where NWU ends up) games are Q1 after that they only have 3 more changes at a Q1. I think this stretch is their most important of the season.

NWU has an extremely favorable schedule down the stretch. Next 3 games are their toughest with home against Illinois and tOSU and on the road at Purdue. They only have 3  Q1 games left on their schedule and those are home vs Illinois, at Purdue and at MSU. Like Nebraska they are in good shape with Q1 wins, however they could become victims of recency bias. Their last Q1 win was Dec 1 vs Purdue. They really needed to beat us.

MSU, not a lot say as they are doing what they typically do this time of season. Very favorable schedule down the stretch with only 3 more Q1 games being at Wisconsin, home Illinois, and at Purdue. Just need to win one of those. Their main goal is to stack up wins. 

Tier 3 - 

Only gonna discuss two teams here. Indiana is on the edge of being a Tier 2 team. 0-6 in Q1 is hurting them badly. They have 5 Q1 games left on their schedule and 3 of those are on the road. They close out their season with a home game against MSU. Their problem is that they need to both stack wins along with getting about 3 Q1 wins.  

Minnesota is another edge team. Like IU, the lack of Q1 wins is hurting them. The have 6/7 (depending on where NWU ends up) Q1 games left. Like IU they need to both stack wins along with getting about 3 Q1 wins. They have 5 Q1 chances and are in better shape to get wins with 3 of those being at home than IU. They are on a 3 game losing streak after winning their previous 7. If there's a team that could get jump back into the mix it would be Minnesota.

 

Bottom line, is that after the top 3 teams there are still 7 teams that have a realistic chance to change their fortunes.

Most of the teams in that Tier 2 group, especially those in that Tier 3 group are going to have to win 1 or more games in the BIG. 

 

 

[Ron Mexico]

17 hours ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

Yes. That Purdue victory will remain Q1 the whole season. The MSU rise to top 30 would also push that to Q1, eventually, if they wind up top 3,4,5 in the league, I'd imagine.

 

MSU is a top 30 NET. 

Edited January 23, 2024 by Ron Mexico

[AuroranHusker]

11 minutes ago, Ron Mexico said:

MSU is a top 30 NET. 

 

That's good, I like that particular win a lot. Appreciate your separate post, I do not religiously follow any of these rankings mid-season, when NU is in position by March 1st, then I try to keep up. Thanks again.

 

 

Edited January 23, 2024 by AuroranHusker

[hskr4life]

One of our Q1 wins is a true road OOC win over a team from the top conference in the nation.  You’d have to think that’ll stand out too and I wonder how many other Tier 2 teams can boast that.

 

I worry about how our Non-Con SOS will look like a black eye come March if we’re on that bubbly line.  I feel like that could be a reason why we “shouldn’t” make it should they need one.  There is precedent for that as well.  Now, if we can stack some wins and win a big game or two, that Non-Con SOS is moot.

 

One thing we’ve done to help separate ourselves is beat other bubbly teams.  KSU, MSU, Northwestern are all teams riding that 10-11 seed line.  We’re in 74/76 bracket matrix projections right now with an average seed under 10.  MSU is barely above us and NW/KSU are below us.  Those three wins are huge when it comes to H2H discussions.

[Ron Mexico]

8 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

One of our Q1 wins is a true road OOC win over a team from the top conference in the nation.  You’d have to think that’ll stand out too and I wonder how many other Tier 2 teams can boast that.

 

I worry about how our Non-Con SOS will look like a black eye come March if we’re on that bubbly line.  I feel like that could be a reason why we “shouldn’t” make it should they need one.  There is precedent for that as well.  Now, if we can stack some wins and win a big game or two, that Non-Con SOS is moot.

 

One thing we’ve done to help separate ourselves is beat other bubbly teams.  KSU, MSU, Northwestern are all teams riding that 10-11 seed line.  We’re in 74/76 bracket matrix projections right now with an average seed under 10.  MSU is barely above us and NW/KSU are below us.  Those three wins are huge when it comes to H2H discussions.

That can't be overstated enough because those discussion do happen behind those closed doors.

[Norm Peterson]

With that win, Kenpom bumps us ahead of tOSU and into the top 45. At exactly 45th.

 

We need to hold serve at home. For sure don't get beat bad by anyone and win out at home.

 

And then just pick up a road win, or if we drop one at home, two road games. We should not have lost to Rutgers. That one hurts. So we're going to have to find another road opportunity somewhere else like College Park. And I've got Ann Arbor circled in red.

 

1st round bye in the conference tournament. Hopefully pick up a conference tourney win over a bottom 4 team and then a Quad 1 game following that. If, perchance, we do hold serve at home and find 2 road wins, then there's a good chance we'd have a top 4 conference seed.

 

At 11-9, we're probably a 5-7 seed in the conference tourney. 10-10 and we might fall to the 8-9 game. But, are there six more regular season wins on our schedule? If so, I gotta think we get to 22 overall and a spot in the dance.

 

 

[throwback]

5 home games left - we'll be pretty solid favorites (-5 or more) in four of them - and probably a slight 'dog vs Wisky

 

6 road games left - probably a solid 'dog in the next 3 (+5 or more) - not sure on the last 3. Probably slight 'dog at Indiana, OSU and Mich right now, but things could change quite a bit by the time those games roll around .... especially the Michigan game - they may be pretty beaten down by that time.

 

I'd be pretty happy if we win the 4 games where we're favored and get 2 of the other 7. 21 wins would probably put us on the right side of the bubble along with our multiple Q1 wins. If we then get 1 in the B1G tourney to get to 22 wins, we're an NCAA lock.

 

Looks like we'll be underdogs in each of the next 4 - need to steal at least 1 of them to stay on target.

 

[Norm Peterson]

52 minutes ago, throwback said:

5 home games left - we'll be pretty solid favorites (-5 or more) in four of them - and probably a slight 'dog vs Wisky

 

6 road games left - probably a solid 'dog in the next 3 (+5 or more) - not sure on the last 3. Probably slight 'dog at Indiana, OSU and Mich right now, but things could change quite a bit by the time those games roll around .... especially the Michigan game - they may be pretty beaten down by that time.

 

I'd be pretty happy if we win the 4 games where we're favored and get 2 of the other 7. 21 wins would probably put us on the right side of the bubble along with our multiple Q1 wins. If we then get 1 in the B1G tourney to get to 22 wins, we're an NCAA lock.

 

Looks like we'll be underdogs in each of the next 4 - need to steal at least 1 of them to stay on target.

 

 

I think we can beat Maryland at Maryland. I think we can sweep Michigan.

 

I think if I had to rank the remaining road games from best chance for a W to worst chance, it'd go like this:

 

Michigan, Maryland, Indiana, Northwestern, Ohio St, Illinois.

 

So, we darn well better win the next one (against Maryland.)

[Cowboy Kermit]

 
I think we can beat Maryland at Maryland. I think we can sweep Michigan.
 
I think if I had to rank the remaining road games from best chance for a W to worst chance, it'd go like this:
 
Michigan, Maryland, Indiana, Northwestern, Ohio St, Illinois.
 
So, we darn well better win the next one (against Maryland.)

No time like the present to cross the Crisler Center off the list of Big Ten arenas the program hasn’t won in.

Only other one is Mackey