KenPom 2023-2024 KenPom Rankings Thread

[hhcmatt]

1 minute ago, 49r said:

I think he means the ranking we have on game day.  We could potentially slide back down into the 40's after tonight's results come in.

 

Yes

 

 

[cozrulz]

1 hour ago, unl said:

I think the goal for this team is basically win out at home, one loss but probably no more than two…and win 1/3 of the roadies. 
 

if we finish 8-7, we’d be 21-10 and 11-9. But our non con was bad. So like Robin said, need to get into the low 20s this year. 8-7 is basically no road wins you know? Why can’t these guys go 9-6 or 10-5? That’s the ultimate goal I think.  This team is different. 

 

11-4 pushing for a conference championship

[Norm Peterson]

2 hours ago, 49r said:

The thing about that @Norm Peterson is, as the season progresses and as the sample size increases, the MOV actually is a fairly accurate indicator of how good a team is relative to all the rest.  Yes in limited context like the example you provided above it is fairly meaningless.  That's why KenPom's predictions generally get more accurate as the season progresses and teams' movement up or down the rankings becomes harder towards the end of the year.

 

There will always be outliers, but statistically speaking, the methods are pretty solid.  KenPom doesn't finish near the top of the HHCC every year for no reason. 

 

So where would we be if we had beaten North Dakota by 16 instead of 8? Keisei and Brice were a combined 1-11 from 3-point range that day. If they hit just 4-11, we win by 17.

[49r]

8 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

So where would we be if we had beaten North Dakota by 16 instead of 8? Keisei and Brice were a combined 1-11 from 3-point range that day. If they hit just 4-11, we win by 17.

 

Essentially, we would have avoided the 10 spot drop.  We would have stayed at around 45 because the predicted MOV was 18.

 

45 Nebraska 83, 262 North Dakota 75 [68] MVP: Juwan Gary (12p/12r/2a/2s)

Nebraska 80-62 (94%)

 

We ended up beating the KP number in the SC State game by 5 points so that didn't move us up any either.  But if we had beat them by 50 or 60 (entirely possible seeing as how we had a 51 point lead in the second half) then we probably would have seen a healthy bump from that.

 

So if we had made the KP number in the North Dakota game and done what we should have done to SC State (and everything else stayed the same) I'd say our ranking would be in the 35-ish range right now, which could be the difference between first four out and last four in.

[Bugeaters1]

 
plus it's dirt cheap too so why not?

It's cheaper when they stream It on YouTube. Like they did the Nebraska Purdue game.

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk

[hskr4life]

18 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

Essentially, we would have avoided the 10 spot drop.  We would have stayed at around 45 because the predicted MOV was 18.

 

45 Nebraska 83, 262 North Dakota 75 [68] MVP: Juwan Gary (12p/12r/2a/2s)

Nebraska 80-62 (94%)

 

We ended up beating the KP number in the SC State game by 5 points so that didn't move us up any either.  But if we had beat them by 50 or 60 (entirely possible seeing as how we had a 51 point lead in the second half) then we probably would have seen a healthy bump from that.

 

So if we had made the KP number in the North Dakota game and done what we should have done to SC State (and everything else stayed the same) I'd say our ranking would be in the 35-ish range right now, which could be the difference between first four out and last four in.

Are you saying if we finish at 35, we’d be on the bubble?

[49r]

Are you saying if we finish at 35, we’d be on the bubble?

At 35 we’re probably on the right side of the bubble. Barely.

[hskr4life]

8 minutes ago, 49r said:

At 35 we’re probably on the right side of the bubble. Barely.

 

Interesting-- I'm not sure that I'd agree, but there is a history of high level KP teams being left out of the tournament.

 

In most instances, the team had 1-2 metrics that were very different than a KP ranking.  For instance a Top 40 KP, but a sub 75 RPI or sub 50-60 NET.

 

Should our metrics that I posted earlier today remain pretty much the same.  I don't think we'd have a problem getting in.  Especially with 3 Q1 wins already in our pocket.  I know those could change.

Edited January 11, 2024 by hskr4life

[tcp]

this team has some good wins and those matter to the committee. they only have one loss that's even arguably bad, and that's turning out to be less bad by the day. all you can ask is that a team controls its own destiny, and this team most certainly does. If they're good enough to go, they'll go. What they really need is to find a way to steal a couple on the road in the B1G. We can't blow any more Minnesotas. 

[49r]

Man, things are tight dimes.  I hadn't really paid attention but we are sitting on a fragile perch at the moment aren't we?

 

38	Colorado	P12	11-5	+15.97
39	Nebraska	B10	13-3	+15.92
40	Ohio St.	B10	12-4	+15.86

 

5 one-hundredths one way or another...

[49r]

3 minutes ago, tcp said:

If they're good enough to go, they'll go.

 

Did @Norm Peterson steal your login?

[tcp]

8 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

Did @Norm Peterson steal your login?

 

norm would never do such a thing! hahaha. no, really, I'd be the last person he'd want to impersonate. ;)

[Cornhoopers]

21 minutes ago, tcp said:

We can't blow any more Minnesotas. 

[tcp]

7 minutes ago, Cornhoopers said:

 

Challenge accepted! Maybe after a nap.....;)

[hskr4life]

36 minutes ago, tcp said:

this team has some good wins and those matter to the committee. they only have one loss that's even arguably bad, and that's turning out to be less bad by the day. all you can ask is that a team controls its own destiny, and this team most certainly does. If they're good enough to go, they'll go. What they really need is to find a way to steal a couple on the road in the B1G. We can't blow any more Minnesotas. 

Provided a huge meltdown, that Minny loss will remain, at minimum, a Q2 loss.

[hhcmatt]

30 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

 

Interesting-- I'm not sure that I'd agree, but there is a history of high level KP teams being left out of the tournament.

 

In most instances, the team had 1-2 metrics that were very different than a KP ranking.  For instance a Top 40 KP, but a sub 75 RPI or sub 50-60 NET.

 

Should our metrics that I posted earlier today remain pretty much the same.  I don't think we'd have a problem getting in.  Especially with 3 Q1 wins already in our pocket.  I know those could change.

 

Texas was at 30 and didn't go because they didn't have enough wins/too many loses.   There have been teams in the 70s who went.  To me KenPom is more of a tool for predicting outcomes than it is for predicting tournament teams.  It happens to be fairly good at predicting tournament teams given that the best teams tend to make the tournament.

 

That's 3 more Q1 wins than we had in 2017-18 though both Michigan St and Kansas St could easily turn into Quad 2 wins 

[hskr4life]

1 minute ago, hhcmatt said:

 

Texas was at 30 and didn't go because they didn't have enough wins/too many loses.   There have been teams in the 70s who went.  To me KenPom is more of a tool for predicting outcomes than it is for predicting tournament teams.  It happens to be fairly good at predicting tournament teams given that the best teams tend to make the tournament.

 

That's 3 more Q1 wins than we had in 2017-18 though both Michigan St and Kansas St could easily turn into Quad 2 wins 

Yep— KenPom is just one of multiple different metrics listed on team sheets used by the committee.  Theres never been a team with 0 Q1 wins selected as an at large, which is why that Purdue game was so important.  All of our other games this year will teeter between Q2 and Q1 outside of probably Wisco at home.  Win that one and you’ve almost guaranteed yourself TWO Q1 wins.

[Art Vandalay]

1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

Yep— KenPom is just one of multiple different metrics listed on team sheets used by the committee.  Theres never been a team with 0 Q1 wins selected as an at large, which is why that Purdue game was so important.  All of our other games this year will teeter between Q2 and Q1 outside of probably Wisco at home.  Win that one and you’ve almost guaranteed yourself TWO Q1 wins.

I really think if the season ended today we are in and probably an 8/9th seed. If we get to 21 wins with 3-4 Q1 wins I think we are in easily in the end as well. Hopefully MSU and KSU stay Q1, if so I’m confident we get in with 20+ wins.

[hskr4life]

2 minutes ago, Art Vandalay said:

I really think if the season ended today we are in and probably an 8/9th seed. If we get to 21 wins with 3-4 Q1 wins I think we are in easily in the end as well. Hopefully MSU and KSU stay Q1, if so I’m confident we get in with 20+ wins.

100% we’d be in if the season ended today.  We have more Q1 wins than most teams currently thanks to MSU and KSU.

[HuskerFever]

2 hours ago, tcp said:

this team has some good wins and those matter to the committee. they only have one loss that's even arguably bad, and that's turning out to be less bad by the day. all you can ask is that a team controls its own destiny, and this team most certainly does. If they're good enough to go, they'll go. What they really need is to find a way to steal a couple on the road in the B1G. We can't blow any more Minnesotas. 

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but we've seen some teams with the same Q1 type of record where we stand today who have made it into the tournament.

 

Still a lot of season left, and opportunities left, but there's some major wins already there.

[cipsucks]

16 minutes ago, Art Vandalay said:

I really think if the season ended today we are in and probably an 8/9th seed. If we get to 21 wins with 3-4 Q1 wins I think we are in easily in the end as well. Hopefully MSU and KSU stay Q1, if so I’m confident we get in with 20+ wins.

 

Izzo's teams almost always play their best basketball down the stretch. 

[cipsucks]

2 hours ago, tcp said:

 

Challenge accepted! Maybe after a nap.....;)

 

 

[cipsucks]

10 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

If we beat Iowa on the road (not saying we will, certainly no cakewalk) I think people will have to take notice.

 

But, I mean, we gotta beat some teams the rest of the way. Hold serve at home; pick up a couple on the road.

 

Imagine the atmosphere at PBA when the Huskers come into the Northwestern game riding a three game win streak!  Danny is in the building, so is the 93-94 team.  I heard Henry T a week or two ago. There are former players coming back that haven't been here since their playing days.  Don't remember many names, but Tyronn will be here.

[tcp]

Man, this is long overdue. I'm jealous of anyone that gets that ticket. those were the days I went to watch hoops in person the most. Danny was always awesome. 

 

 

[hskr4life]

Gonzaga’s resume is terrible. How were they even ranked?  Oh well— won’t be after tonight