KenPom 2022-2023 KenPom Rankings Thread

[Dead Dog Alley]

  On 2/26/2023 at 5:35 PM, HuskerFever said:

 

For those who don't want to click the link or dig:

 

Beginning in 2020, winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin were all dropped from the NET ranking. Therefore, only team value and team value index are used to ranked teams. So, the only factors which go into the rankings are efficiency (offensive points per possession minus opponents points per possession), strength of opponents played, location of game, wins and losses, and who won the game.

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Huh - (offensive points per possession minus opponents points per possession) x (total possessions for the year) / (average possessions per game) = (average margin of victory).  But it doesn't take into account margin of victory....  Just margin of victory times a factor that will be fairly close for each team.  So to say it doesn't factor in margin of victory is just wrong.

 

[HuskerFever]

  On 2/26/2023 at 9:11 PM, FredsSlacks said:

if we get to 18 wins it will mean we have beaten 3 more tourney teams. i would imagine we'd move up a lot.

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It's possible it comes down to that Q1 column + a flawless Q3/Q4.

[HuskerFever]

  On 2/26/2023 at 9:19 PM, Dead Dog Alley said:

Huh - (offensive points per possession minus opponents points per possession) x (total possessions for the year) / (average possessions per game) = (average margin of victory).  But it doesn't take into account margin of victory....  Just margin of victory times a factor that will be fairly close for each team.  So to say it doesn't factor in margin of victory is just wrong.

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I'd be curious to see if this favors one style of play over another. Virginia slowball for instance.

[Dead Dog Alley]

  On 2/26/2023 at 9:24 PM, HuskerFever said:

 

I'd be curious to see if this favors one style of play over another. Virginia slowball for instance.

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Virginia currently has a margin of victory of 7.5; so judging by the per possession metric as opposed to the margin of victory metric they are probably getting the same benefit as a team that plays with a more typical pace with a margin of victory of 8.5 to 9.5.

[royalfan]

Central Florida 6-9 in the AAC and 72 in the NET shows there is probably is some sort of glitch in the matrix.  Beating a horrific Tulsa team by 40 a couple times is doing them wonders it would appear.  Not sure what kind of example that sets exactly, similar to what Jerry Stackhouse suggested. 

Edited February 26, 2023 by royalfan

[royalfan]

  On 2/26/2023 at 9:24 PM, HuskerFever said:

 

I'd be curious to see if this favors one style of play over another. Virginia slowball for instance.

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I believe i read that KenPOM adjusts for it and NeT Does not.  

[Swan88]

 

[The Polish Rifle]

  On 2/26/2023 at 11:32 PM, royalfan said:

Central Florida 6-9 in the AAC and 72 in the NET shows there is probably is some sort of glitch in the matrix.  Beating a horrific Tulsa team by 40 a couple times is doing them wonders it would appear.  Not sure what kind of example that sets exactly, similar to what Jerry Stackhouse suggested. 

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Yale is 30 spots ahead of us at 17-7 and 0 power 5 wins. 

[jayschool]

Maybe next year we'll be asking: "How the hell did we ever get such a high ranking/rating?"

[royalfan]

Good day for our Big 10 tourney seeding prospects.  We will pry move to 98 or so in the new NET.  F$$K the NET.  I am not going to let it take away anymore enjoyment of the effort this team has put forth.  

 

EDIT No matter how we perform, Penn St. will have to win a game or we will avoid the dangerous Ohio St game on Wednesday.  

Edited February 27, 2023 by royalfan

[jayschool]

I say we shouldn't leave anything up to chance next year. Go 20-0 in the Big Ten and guarantee a home game in the first round of the NIT!

[royalfan]

  On 2/27/2023 at 2:52 AM, jayschool said:

I say we shouldn't leave anything up to chance next year. Go 20-0 in the Big Ten and guarantee a home game in the first round of the NIT!

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Going to require a hitman on Collier to seal that deal. 

[HuskerFever]

  On 2/27/2023 at 2:52 AM, jayschool said:

I say we shouldn't leave anything up to chance next year. Go 20-0 in the Big Ten and guarantee a home game in the first round of the NIT!

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Not enough Quad 1 wins...

[The Polish Rifle]

  On 2/27/2023 at 3:02 AM, HuskerFever said:

 

Not enough Quad 1 wins...

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20-0 in the B1G, but only beat Minnesota by 26....8 seed.

[jayschool]

  On 2/27/2023 at 3:02 AM, HuskerFever said:

 

Not enough Quad 1 wins...

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[Dead Dog Alley]

  On 2/27/2023 at 2:52 AM, jayschool said:

I say we shouldn't leave anything up to chance next year. Go 20-0 in the Big Ten and guarantee a home game in the first round of the NIT!

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It wouldn't surprise me if we go 33-1, lose by 1 in four overtimes in the Big Ten championship game after 12 players foul out, and end up with an NIT 5 seed.

[Nebrasketball1979]

Currently sitting with 2% odds to make the tournament per Team Rankings.  What's interesting is that their analytics believe that we have a 40% chance to make the dance with 19 wins and a 91% chance with 20 wins.  Need to find 4 more wins to make this really interesting.  

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/nebraska-cornhuskers/bracketology

[The Polish Rifle]

8 spot jump for Ohio St in the NET. 

[Huskerpapa]

  On 2/27/2023 at 1:13 PM, Nebrasketball1979 said:

Currently sitting with 2% odds to make the tournament per Team Rankings.  What's interesting is that their analytics believe that we have a 40% chance to make the dance with 19 wins and a 91% chance with 20 wins.  Need to find 4 more wins to make this really interesting.  

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/nebraska-cornhuskers/bracketology

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[Norm Peterson]

  On 2/27/2023 at 1:13 PM, Nebrasketball1979 said:

Currently sitting with 2% odds to make the tournament per Team Rankings.  What's interesting is that their analytics believe that we have a 40% chance to make the dance with 19 wins and a 91% chance with 20 wins.  Need to find 4 more wins to make this really interesting.  

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/nebraska-cornhuskers/bracketology

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Four more wins only gives us a 40% chance.

 

To get to 4 more wins, we would have to either ...

 

Lose our next two games to the NET #33 team at home and #43 team on the road, finish as an 11 or 12 seed, and then reach the Big Ten Championship game;

 

Win one of our next two games to the NET #33 team at home or #43 team on the road, finish as a 10 seed, and then reach the Big Ten Championship game; or

 

Win our next two games to the NET #33 team at home and #43 team on the road, finish as a 10 seed, and then reach the conference semifinals.

 

To get to five more wins, we'd almost have to win the Big Ten tournament title. And they're saying that only gets us a 91% chance of getting in? Sounds about Nebrasketball.

[Norm Peterson]

Not to try to hijack the Kenpom thread with too much discussion about NET, but do you all remember when the NCAA introduced the whole notion of Quad wins/losses? The idea was to encourage teams to schedule tough games. Not to pad their resumes with a bunch of wins over cupcakes and patsies.

 

Schedule tough. Get wins over good teams; don't lose to bad ones.

 

So, right now, Nebraska sits at #92 in the NET.

 

We have seven Quad 1 and 2 wins. We have zero Quad 3 and 4 losses.

 

Right ahead of us at #91 is James Madison.

 

They have zero Quad 1 wins; two Quad 2 wins; two Quad 3 losses; and FOUR Quad 4 losses.

 

So, they have NO really good wins and FOUR really bad losses. And they're ahead of us.

 

Don't try to explain to me how the NET algorithm works. I don't care. Their algorithm is clearly broken.

[royalfan]

What they kind of advertised what they wanted kind of changed in 2020 or whenever they changed the way it works.   They just never really readvertised.  it really makes no difference whatsoever who you are playing right now.  All that matters is if you are more or less efficient in your performance than what you were scheduled to be going into the game.  
 

 

I really think that the committee doesn’t give much of a crap about what the NET ranking is.  It is just a way to sort out your schedule somehow in a way they feel is better than the RPI.  NIT on other hand seeems to gravitate to the NET as they don’t put in the time to sort anything out,  

Edited February 27, 2023 by royalfan

[HuskerFever]

  On 2/27/2023 at 5:07 PM, Norm Peterson said:

Schedule tough. Get wins over good teams; don't lose to bad ones.

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Meanwhile we have a top 25 SOS and getting "punished" for it (of course we just needed to win some games so it's still kind of on us).

[The Polish Rifle]

All the NIT bracketology I’ve seen is heavily weighing Ken Pom and NET. They got burned last year due to the NIT committee focusing on those metrics. For example a lot of them had Washington St out last year, Washington St ended up not only making the field but hosting a game because they were a NET/Ken Pom darling. They were outside the top 100 on all result based metrics. 

[Nebrasketball1979]

Showing up in some NIT projections...the narrative is a good read as well.

 

https://nitbracketology.blogspot.com/2023/02/feb-26-nit-bracketology.html