KenPom 2022-2023 KenPom Rankings Thread

[49r]

This season's Pomeroy rankings are out, and I'll do a full update as soon as I get the time.  But I will leave you with this one spoiler, we aren't starting off last in the Big Ten.  (insert Arrested Development "Don't Buy Bluth" clip here).  Stay tuned folks and hold on to your shorts.  A quick scan of the upcoming schedule is enough to give me heartburn.

 

For now, enjoy a little relaxing music.

 

 

[Dead Dog Alley]

Assuming they end up playing Siena and Seton Hall: 

 

  12  @Indiana
  22  @Creighton
  23  Iowa
  23  @Iowa
  25  Purdue
  25  @Purdue
  26  @Michigan
  28  n Oklahoma
  31  @Michigan State
  31  Michigan State
  32  Ohio State
  33  Illinois
  33  @Illinois
  37  @St. John's
  46  @Penn State
  46  Penn State
  48  n Seton Hall
  50  @Rutgers
  55  Wisconsin
  56  @Maryland
  56  Maryland
  70  Northwestern
  74  Boston College
  77  @Kansas State
109  @Minnesota
109  Minnesota
227  Queens University
244  n Siena
330  Omaha
351  Maine
361  Arkansas-Pine Bluff
 

[hhcmatt]

Indiana ranked on top of the B1G woah!

[cipsucks]

 

 

[Chuck Taylor]

KenPom's algos don't take into account the change in defensive philosophy we're expecting. A true commitment to defense, with the talent on this roster, is going to result in an AdjD better than the 107th predicted here. I won't argue with the KenPom offensive rating of 115 based on the current talent, except to say an improved defense might lead to more easier baskets.

 

Not saying we're suddenly a top 25 team, just that we can be better than 108th. 

[49r]

Not a lot to say this morning. We've been down this road before and kinda already know where it goes so for now the less said the better. So in the interest of brevity...Here we go with the first edition of the KenPom rankings 2022-23!

 

---

 

KenPom rankings as of 10-17-22
=======================

 

B1G (0-0):
12. Indiana
23. Iowa
25. Purdue
26. Michigan
31. Michigan State
32. Ohio State
33. Illinois
46. Penn State
50. Rutgers
55. Wisconsin
56. Maryland
70. Northwestern
108. Nebraska
109. Minnesota

 

 

Non-Conference (0-0):
351. Maine
330. Omaha

---Gavitt Games---
37. @St. John's

361. Arkansas Pine-Bluff

---ESPN Events Invitational---
28. Oklahoma
34/48. Memphis/Seton Hall
49/58/65/244. Ole Miss/Stanford/Florida State/Siena

---B1G/ACC Challenge---
74. Boston College

22. @Creighton
77. Kansas State

---Battle In The Vault---
227. Queens University of Charlotte

 

 

[49r]

Here is a look at the schedule with projected win totals:

 

2023 Schedule 

Game Plan | Opponent Tracker

Date	Rk	Opponent		Result			Location	Record	Conf
Mon Nov 7		351	Maine	W, 84-61	74	98%	Home
Thu Nov 10		330	Nebraska Omaha	W, 85-67	75	95%	Home
Thu Nov 17		37	St. John's	L, 83-71	78	15%	Away
Sun Nov 20		361	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W, 89-62	74	99%	Home
Thu Nov 24		28	Oklahoma	L, 77-67	73	20%	Neutral
Wed Nov 30		74	Boston College	L, 73-72	73	49%	Home
Sun Dec 4		22	Creighton	L, 81-68	75	12%	Away
Wed Dec 7		12	Indiana	L, 81-65	74	8%	Away		×
Sat Dec 10		25	Purdue	L, 78-72	73	29%	Home		×
Sat Dec 17		77	Kansas St.	L, 76-70	74	27%	Away
Tue Dec 20		227	Queens	W, 84-72	75	86%	Home
Thu Dec 29		23	Iowa	L, 82-75	76	27%	Home		×
Tue Jan 3		31	Michigan St.	L, 81-69	75	14%	Away		×
Sat Jan 7		109	Minnesota	L, 75-72	73	39%	Away		×
Tue Jan 10		33	Illinois	L, 76-71	75	32%	Home		×
Fri Jan 13		25	Purdue	L, 81-68	73	12%	Away		×
Wed Jan 18		32	Ohio St.	L, 77-71	73	32%	Home		×
Sat Jan 21		46	Penn St.	L, 77-67	71	19%	Away		×
Tue Jan 24		70	Northwestern	L, 73-72	74	47%	Home		×
Sat Jan 28		56	Maryland	L, 79-70	75	20%	Away		×
Tue Jan 31		33	Illinois	L, 80-68	75	14%	Away		×
Sun Feb 5		46	Penn St.	L, 73-70	71	38%	Home		×
Wed Feb 8		26	Michigan	L, 82-69	74	12%	Away		×
Sat Feb 11		55	Wisconsin	L, 74-71	73	40%	Home		×
Tue Feb 14		50	Rutgers	L, 75-66	73	19%	Away		×
Sun Feb 19		56	Maryland	L, 75-73	75	41%	Home		×
Sat Feb 25		109	Minnesota	W, 75-72	73	62%	Home		×
Tue Feb 28		31	Michigan St.	L, 78-72	75	31%	Home		×
Sun Mar 5		23	Iowa	L, 85-72	76	12%	Away		×
Projected record:								10-19	5-15
Chance of unbeaten record:								0.00%	0.00%
Chance of winless record:								0.00%	0.1%

 

[49r]

Here is Torvik, if you are into that sort of thing:

 

 

2023 T-Rank College Basketball Projections

RK	TEAM	CONF	ADJOE	ADJDE	BARTHAG	PROJ. REC		RET MINS	RPMS	TALENT	EXP.	TRANS.
11	Indiana	B10	111.1 23	91.7 12	.9004	22-9	13-7	78.1%	81.6%	79.8	2.16	0
15	Illinois	B10	112.1 14	93.5 31	.8897	22-8	13-7	16.5%	15.0%	82.8	1.41	181
24	Michigan St.	B10	111.7 19	94.6 47	.8714	18-11	12-8	54.1%	55.2%	73	1.86	0
31	Iowa	B10	113.1 8	96.6 78	.8590	20-10	12-8	62.0%	56.8%	52.2	1.94	0
32	Purdue	B10	112.6 10	96.2 71	.8589	19-10	12-8	39.5%	35.9%	57.4	1.54	36
38	Michigan	B10	111.4 21	95.9 65	.8481	19-11	11-9	27.5%	30.5%	87.9	1.57	99
50	Maryland	B10	108.9 44	95.6 60	.8167	18-12	11-9	46.8%	42.5%	50.7	2.38	154
56	Rutgers	B10	104.8 118	92.8 22	.8022	19-12	10-10	63.5%	59.7%	47.3	2.34	41
62	Wisconsin	B10	104.4 124	93.1 25	.7896	16-13	10-10	52.3%	45.0%	48.5	1.64	73
67	Ohio St.	B10	109.3 41	98.4 109	.7686	15-14	9-11	23.0%	15.0%	54.6	2.15	185
82	Penn St.	B10	104.8 119	96.0 67	.7324	15-14	8-12	55.2%	52.2%	34.5	2.34	138
92	Nebraska	B10	106.3 84	98.7 114	.7016	13-16	7-13	38.2%	28.8%	32.8	2.27	223
98	Northwestern	B10	102.2 178	95.3 55	.6921	14-16	7-13	59.6%	57.2%	48.6	2.2	23
134	Minnesota	B10	104.6 121	100.7 154	.6071	13-17	5-15	20.9%	23.6%	37.2	2.07	208

Compiled by Bart Torvik from sacred data and secret formulas.

 

 

 

DATE			OPPONENT			RESULT/LINE		RECORD		WAB																		-
Mon 11-07	H		313 (Ⅳ)		Maine	-18.4, 88-69	94%			.04
Thu 11-10	H		336 (Ⅳ)		Nebraska Omaha	-21.2, 90-69	96%			.03
Thu 11-17	A		47 (Ⅳ)		St. John's	+9.0, 86-77	22%			.56
Sun 11-20	H		344 (Ⅳ)		Arkansas Pine Bluff	-22.8, 91-68	97%			.02
Thu 11-24	N		33 (Ⅳ)		Oklahoma	+6.1, 78-72	28%			.55
Wed 11-30	H		76 (Ⅲ)		Boston College	-2.4, 76-73	59%			.31
Sun 12-04	A		23 (Ⅱ)		Creighton	+10.8, 80-69	16%			.66
Wed 12-07	A		11 (I-A)	•	Indiana	+12.9, 83-70	13%			.72
Sat 12-10	H		32 (Ⅱ)	•	Purdue	+2.4, 78-75	41%			.48
Sat 12-17	N		45 (I)		Kansas St.	+4.9, 79-74	33%			.50
Tue 12-20	H		236 (Ⅳ)		Queens	-14.0, 88-74	88%			.08
Thu 12-29	H		31 (Ⅱ)	•	Iowa	+2.5, 82-79	41%			.48
Tue 1-03	A		24 (I-A)	•	Michigan St.	+11.1, 83-72	16%			.65
Sat 1-07	A		134 (I-A)	•	Minnesota	+1.2, 77-76	46%			.30
Tue 1-10	H		15 (I-A)	•	Illinois	+4.2, 78-74	35%			.55
Fri 1-13	A		32 (I-A)	•	Purdue	+10.3, 82-72	18%			.63
Wed 1-18	H		67 (Ⅱ)	•	Ohio St.	-1.7, 76-75	56%			.34
Sat 1-21	A		82 (I)	•	Penn St.	+4.8, 76-71	32%			.43
Tue 1-24	H		98 (Ⅲ)	•	Northwestern	-4.2, 76-72	66%			.26
Sat 1-28	A		50 (Ⅱ)	•	Maryland	+8.3, 81-73	22%			.55
Tue 1-31	A		15 (I)	•	Illinois	+12.2, 83-70	14%			.69
Sun 2-05	H		82 (Ⅲ)	•	Penn St.	-2.9, 75-72	61%			.29
Wed 2-08	A		38 (Ⅱ)	•	Michigan	+9.7, 81-72	19%			.61
Sat 2-11	H		62 (Ⅱ)	•	Wisconsin	-0.8, 73-72	53%			.36
Tue 2-14	A		56 (I)	•	Rutgers	+7.1, 75-68	24%			.53
Sun 2-19	H		50 (Ⅱ)	•	Maryland	+0.3, 78-77	49%			.40
Sat 2-25	H		134 (Ⅲ)	•	Minnesota	-6.8, 80-73	73%			.19
Tue 2-28	H		24 (I)	•	Michigan St.	+3.1, 79-76	39%			.51
Sun 3-05	A		31 (I-A)	•	Iowa	+10.9, 86-75	18%			.63
Projected Record: 13-16 (7-13)

 

[jimmykc]

So KenPom thinks we will go for two months without a victory. I'll take the over for that stretch (which includes Minnesota, Northwestern and Penn State twice).

[Handy Johnson]

How can Penn St. be in the Top 50? Don’t they know we made them CRY last year on our scorched earth road rampage to end the season…???

[Dead Dog Alley]

3 hours ago, 49r said:

Here is Torvik, if you are into that sort of thing:

 

 

 

I got myself Torviked one night; it wasn't pleasant.

[hskr4life]

Now I know the odds are low… but if we have a 0.1% chance of going winless, I feel we should also have a 0.1% chance of going undefeated.  I mean there’s always a chance until you win/lose your first game.

[49r]

59 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Now I know the odds are low… but if we have a 0.1% chance of going winless, I feel we should also have a 0.1% chance of going undefeated.  I mean there’s always a chance until you win/lose your first game.

 

Those are the conference only numbers.  The overall percentages are 0.0% undefeated and 0.0% winless.

[49r]

1 hour ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

 

I got myself Torviked one night; it wasn't pleasant.

 

[HuskerActuary]

19 hours ago, jimmykc said:

So KenPom thinks we will go for two months without a victory. I'll take the over for that stretch (which includes Minnesota, Northwestern and Penn State twice).

That's not how odds work :)

 

KenPom thinks we are underdogs in every game for two months straight, which is not the same as expecting zero wins over that two-month stretch.

[jimmykc]

That just seems odd to me.

[Norm Peterson]

I'm struggling here.

 

Objectively, you look at our roster and our history and we have no world beaters on this team and I think they should be picking us no higher than 150 or so.

 

And I think to myself, yeah, objectively, that's where you'd think we should be. AND I think we'll be better than that.

 

But then they pick us at 108, and Torvik at 92 for goodness sake, and I'm thinking man they're acting like a bunch of Husker homers. Drinking the red Kool-Aid.

 

I mean, that's kinda the ballpark where I think we'll be. But I'm assuming I've got a lot of red-color-glasses influence there. Of course I would think we'll be better than the 150ish that we should have been picked at.

 

The thing I'm struggling with is why the hell do they think we'll be as good as I think we'll be? That almost never happens.

[49r]

The thing is I think that if we had Tim as coach with this roster, we're looking at a 60-70ish team.  With Hoiberg, it wouldn't surprise me to see us dip into the 130's.

[Norm Peterson]

2 minutes ago, 49r said:

The thing is I think that if we had Tim as coach with this roster, we're looking at a 60-70ish team.  With Hoiberg, it wouldn't surprise me to see us dip into the 130's.

 

Same.

 

I have some hope that off-season personnel moves have made a big difference.

 

Taking a decidedly wait-and-see approach.

[Norm Peterson]

This Kenpom thing. It's not based on gut feeling or personal opinion, right? It's like somebody objectively crunching numbers and coming up with a system that weighs the stats that his research into those stats indicate matter. Right?

 

For no particular reason, can anyone like @49r look up historically where the North Texas Mean Green has been ranked in Kenpom over the last 5-6 years?

 

Just curious. Apropos of nothing in particular. Except Kenpom, obviously. Since this is a Kenpom thread and I want to keep things topical.

[Norm Peterson]

41 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

This Kenpom thing. It's not based on gut feeling or personal opinion, right? It's like somebody objectively crunching numbers and coming up with a system that weighs the stats that his research into those stats indicate matter. Right?

 

For no particular reason, can anyone like @49r look up historically where the North Texas Mean Green has been ranked in Kenpom over the last 5-6 years?

 

Just curious. Apropos of nothing in particular. Except Kenpom, obviously. Since this is a Kenpom thread and I want to keep things topical.

 

OK, I did my own digging on Kenpom's end-of-year standings.

 

2017 -- 320th

2018 -- 146th

2019 -- 158th

2020 -- 77th

2021 -- 72nd

2022 -- 57th

2023 -- projected 67th

 

Wow. That's pretty consistent improvement over the years for the Mean Green. Interestingly, their current coach took over, well, the year AFTER they went 8-22 and finished 320th in the Kenpom rankings. So, his first season, they jumped from 320th to 146th. Their coach's name is Grant McCasland, in case anyone is interested. That's kind of neither-here-nor-there. The discussion is about Kenpom rankings. And, as an aside, I guess I would just say it would be cool if he could accomplish the same kind of trajectory at a bigger school in a major conference, like Nebraska for instance.

[49r]

Here's another pretty good one IMO @Norm Peterson

 

Coaching Résumé for Jeff Linder 

								Offense										Defense
	Team		Conf	W-L	AdjT	AdjO	AdjD	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTR	2P%	3P%	FT%	3PA%	A%	APL	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTR	2P%	3P%	Blk%	3PA%	A%	APL	2FP%
2023	64	Wyoming	MWC	0-0 0-0	71.0 239	107.0 48	94.7 88	0.0 1	100.0 1	0.0 1	0.0 1	0.0 1	0.0 1	0.0 1	0.0 1	0.0 1	0.0 1	200.0 1	0.0 1	100.0 1	200.0 1	100.0 1	100.0 1	0.0 1	100.0 1	100.0 1	0.0 1	0.0 1
2022	65	Wyoming 12 R0	MWC	25-9 13-5	66.1 239	109.1 67	97.2 71	52.3 72	17.0 87	25.5 267	37.1 33	54.4 31	32.9 222	72.3 153	41.8 89	43.4 326	18.7 295	47.1 51	15.7 319	24.6 48	24.8 43	48.4 124	30.1 26	5.6 333	38.2 204	42.2 23	17.6 184	11.0 269
2021	164	Wyoming	MWC	14-11 7-9	69.0 129	109.1 68	109.0 301	53.7 42	16.0 31	22.9 304	35.3 75	53.9 38	35.7 78	71.9 141	48.8 9	54.1 107	17.4 188	52.9 287	18.2 208	27.8 166	33.9 236	54.4 313	33.0 128	5.4 325	31.1 18	45.5 50	16.8 79	37.2 57
2020	75	Northern Colorado	BSky	22-9 15-5	65.0 320	110.2 45	100.1 122	54.7 12	15.4 14	25.0 274	25.3 332	53.6 30	37.4 18	67.3 293	45.1 28	48.5 249	19.0 334	48.5 126	16.8 296	24.0 28	24.9 26	50.2 210	28.5 6	5.5 329	23.5 1	33.3 1	17.6 225	19.8 186
2019	193	Northern Colorado	BSky	21-11 15-5	66.5 236	102.6 206	104.9 178	52.9 78	18.4 164	27.8 198	34.8 122	53.5 50	34.8 148	69.8 201	45.4 35	50.1 240	18.2 262	51.4 203	18.6 157	25.8 68	28.1 54	49.6 147	36.8 299	8.0 229	31.2 8	45.0 35	17.3 124	26.6 120
2018	104	Northern Colorado	BSky	26-12 11-7	72.2 24	107.3 129	100.8 94	53.8 65	16.8 69	25.4 282	33.8 163	54.1 40	35.5 136	69.2 265	39.6 113	40.4 344	16.4 65	48.8 67	17.4 240	24.4 25	36.8 252	48.7 124	32.9 50	8.0 236	24.2 1	37.6 1	16.6 43	9.3 268
2017	283	Northern Colorado	BSky	11-18 7-11	68.5 160	96.6 309	106.9 216	51.0 155	20.3 293	27.4 235	34.5 201	50.9 104	34.1 215	59.4 351	44.1 25	52.8 158	17.4 186	52.2 242	18.2 198	25.4 32	34.5 163	52.0 269	35.0 171	6.1 314	37.4 217	47.6 56	16.4 25	19.5 151

[49r]

Linder seems like a decent coach for a team at the Power 5 level who may or may not have an opening at the end of this season to take a look at.

 

FWIW, here's Wyoming's finishes in the years before Linder took over:

 

#317 in 2019

#246 in 2020

 

Then Linder took over in the Covid season and played only 7 non-con games.

Edited October 24, 2022 by 49r

[Norm Peterson]

So, @49r, just for shits and giggles, can you include North Texas and Wyoming in your weekly updates? I mean, just y'know for comparative purposes as we progress through the season. "Here's how a couple of other random schools just happen to be doing during this same season." That kind of thing.

[HuskerFever]

2 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

This Kenpom thing. It's not based on gut feeling or personal opinion, right?

 

Also, lest we forget that Ken's computer thingies beat all of us in HHCC last season.