New NET Rankings

HuskerFever · January 13, 2019

2 hours ago, HuskerActuary said:

14 hours ago, cjbowbros said:

Great information I really want to understand this and it seems like you have it down. That makes more sense. My only question is what is an example of an efficiency component?

There are five components to the ranking. The NCAA hasn't been fully transparent about how each one works or how they are weighted, and I'm not sure if anyone has completely reverse-engineered it yet (I saw Bart Torvik got close), but here they are:

"Team Value Index" which rewards you for who you have beaten, taking into account location of the game. This is kind of like strength of record

"Net Efficiency" which is basically how many more points per possession you score than your opponent. This is where Nebraska has got to be pretty strong based on our big wins. This component likely lines up closely with KenPom, I would guess

Winning percentage

Adjusted winning percentage, based on location

Scoring margin <-- this is the one that is capped at 10

It's kind of a weird system and I'm sure they will tweak it. It's just strange that some of those components are so clearly overlapping.

Here's another look at it:

HuskerFever · January 13, 2019

2 hours ago, HuskerActuary said:

It's kind of a weird system and I'm sure they will tweak it. It's just strange that some of those components are so clearly overlapping.

+1 for this

bball23 · January 14, 2019

If I see it correctly, Okie State is up to #58 in the NET rankings....top 50 would be a Q1 win for us. They have beaten Texas at home and West Virginia on the road in their last 2 games. They play Baylor at home tonight. Would LOVE to see them get another win here.

Seton Hall is sitting at #39 in the NET rankings. Too bad they let that road game at Marquette slip away (lost by 4). They are @Providence on Wednesday night. Would be a big bump with a road win.

Edited January 14, 2019 by bball23

cjbowbros · January 14, 2019

4 hours ago, bball23 said:

If I see it correctly, Okie State is up to #58 in the NET rankings....top 50 would be a Q1 win for us. They have beaten Texas at home and West Virginia on the road in their last 2 games. They play Baylor at home tonight. Would LOVE to see them get another win here.

Seton Hall is sitting at #39 in the NET rankings. Too bad they let that road game at Marquette slip away (lost by 4). They are @Providence on Wednesday night. Would be a big bump with a road win.

Even if they don't become Q1 wins this is why we are ranked so high. Now that I know games are only halfway capped at ten a 23 point win vs OSU and Seton Hall along with a huge win vs Creighton (19 points) is really helping us in NET rank. Point differential is the best predictive success factor computer rankings have. People still look at wins and losses as being so important. It seems to me that wins are certainly less than 50% of the algorithm and probably closer to 25%. For NET ranking and therefore quadrants I would much rather one of our opponents lose by one and then win by 10 than win the same two games by 1. The former indicates a better team and NET ranking reflects that now.

Edited January 14, 2019 by cjbowbros

AuroranHusker · January 14, 2019

45 minutes ago, cjbowbros said:

Even if they don't become Q1 wins this is why we are ranked so high. Now that I know games are only halfway capped at ten a 23 point win vs OSU and Seton Hall along with a huge win vs Creighton (19 points) is really helping us in NET rank. Point differential is the best predictive success factor computer rankings have. People still look at wins and losses as being so important. It seems to me that wins are certainly less than 50% of the algorithm and probably closer to 25%. For NET ranking and therefore quadrants I would much rather one of our opponents lose by one and then win by 10 than win the same two games by 1. The former indicates a better team and NET ranking reflects that now.

Kinda amazing that it took the NCAA so long to stop using the ridiculous RPI !!!

kleitus · January 15, 2019

#10 after indiana win

HuskerFever · January 15, 2019

37 minutes ago, kleitus said:

#10 after indiana win

Not as good as when we were #1 at the start of the season...buuuuuuut, I guess I'm okay with it.

kleitus · January 15, 2019

21 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

Not as good as when we were #1 at the start of the season...buuuuuuut, I guess I'm okay with it.

I'm sure your arm is in agony from all the twisting going on...

hskr4life · January 15, 2019

Huge to be in the Top 10 in January. Huge.

aphilso1 · January 15, 2019

1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

Huge to be in the Top 10 in January. Huge.

Not sure if it was your intent, but I read this with Trump voice.

HuskerFever · January 15, 2019

Not that it matters, but I was looking at the team sheets and the DII Southwest Minnesota State game shows up on there along with the score.

Shown as:

"Non-Div I Games: Southwest Minn. S 79 38"

HuskerFever · January 16, 2019

It's still hard to believe that our 4 losses are a Top 25 (average: 23.75) team in and of itself.

Texas Tech: 5

Maryland: 17

Iowa: 28

Minnesota: 45

throwback · January 23, 2019

Good news: RU game became a Q2 game.

Bad news: We lost to frickin' RU.

Costly loss, as we fell to #21 in NET rankings. We're 2-5 in Q1 games, 3-1 in Q2 for a combined 5-6.

At this point, we have only Q1 and Q2 games left on the schedule (subject to change as the rankings change going forward), with 7 Q1 games to play and 5 Q2 games, plus whatever occurs in the B1G Tourney.

If you want someone to cheer for the next week or so, Penn St is #76 in NET right now, so just a 1 spot move up for them gives us a Q1 game later at State College and makes our win vs them earlier a Q2 game, rather than the Q2/Q3 games those are currently.

Mr. Obvious statement: We need to start racking up some wins. Feel like we need to get to 11-12 Q1/Q2 wins to be wearing the home whites in the opening round of the tourney.

Next 3 games:

vs Ohio State - Q2

vs Wisconsin - Q1

at Illinois - Q2

throwback · January 23, 2019

Just looking at how this projection has changed over the past month-plus - NU's number of projected Q1/Q2 opportunities hasn't changed much, ranging from 22-24. Time to take advantage of our opportunities and pick up some Ws.

Q1/Q2	NET	Date of	(record as of projection date in parenthesis)
Combined	NU rank	Projection	Q1 gms	Q2 gms	Q3 gms	Q4 gms
22 (3-2)	#13	Dec 16	12 (1-2)	10 (2-0)	3 (2-0)	5 (4-0)
23 (4-2)	#10	Dec 31	13 (1-2)	10 (3-0)	2 (1-0)	5 (5-0)
24 (5-4)	#14	Jan 11	14 (1-4)	10 (4-0)	2 (2-0)	4 (4-0)
23 (5-6)	#21	Jan 21	14 (2-5)	9 (3-1)	3 (3-0)	4 (4-0)

HuskerFever · January 23, 2019

59 minutes ago, throwback said:

Time to take advantage of our opportunities and pick up some Ws.

I was hoping that time would have come sooner, because I feel like a broken record saying "we still have many more opportunities left," but now it just means we'll have a tough path to get some wins. Gotta earn them!

AuroranHusker · January 24, 2019

Nebraska's NET ranking still strong.... SI has NU as a 7-seed in same region as 2-seed UNC.

throwback · February 18, 2019

Probably not really worth updating this without a win Tuesday, but since I'm an eternal optimist...

5 takeaways:

Northwestern fell out of Q2 territory after we beat them. That makes our task more difficult.
I don't like the way the NET rankings of our opponents are starting to trend (as discussed below). N'western fell out of Q2, and if we beat Iowa and Penn St -- which we need to do -- they may fall to the lower quad also, which would be a huge problem.
We're currently 7-11 in NET Q1/Q2 games with 5 chances left plus whatever we get in the B1G tourney ... there's still a shot, but we probably need 3 more Q1 wins or some combination of 4-5 Q1/Q2 wins to feel good.
If the NCAA were still using RPI, this season would be over. Our RPI, and the Big Ten's RPI as a whole, stink ... except for Minnesota. The RPI loves the Gophers, so we can deduce: RPI = Jackwagon.
We need the teams close to the quad cut off lines to stay on ( or climb to ) the right side - if a few of those don't go our way, we need extra wins from someplace ( i.e., B1G Tourney ).

Teams to keep an eye on over the next few weeks:

IOWA - #28 now - so it would help us if they stay in the top 30 and make the season finale a Q1 game for us ... of course we also need to win that game, which may knock it down to a Q2
ILLINOIS - #80 now - If they could move into the top 75, that would make our Q2 (L) and Q3 (W) games into Q1/Q2 games
PENN ST - #70 now - they need to stay in the top 75 to keep our games as Q1 ( ? ) and Q2 (W) instead of Q2/Q3 games ... again, though, we need to win Tuesday, which may kick them out of the top 75
OKLA ST - #91 now - but they've been falling fast the past few weeks, need them to stay in top 100 to keep that as a Q2 (W) instead of a Q3
N’WESTERN - #77 now - they need to climb back into the top 75 to move our game from Q3 (W) into Q2
CREIGHTON - #63 after another loss at home Sunday – so to stay as Q2 (W) they need to ... ahhh, screw 'em. Don't care if they fall to Q4.

Also, Fullerton is close to climbing into Q3 from Q4 , but I don't think the NCAA committee even looks at Q3/Q4 games, so it probably doesn't matter.

If all 6 of those teams go our way, we'd be on pace for 25 Q1/Q2 games before the B1G Tourney ---- We'd be 2-9 now in Q1 with 5 games left / 7-2 in Q2 with 0 games left ... this would be really good
If all 6 of those teams go against us, we'd drop to on pace for 20 Q1/Q2 games before B1G Tourney ---- We'd be 2-8 now in Q1 with 3 games left / 2-3 in Q2 with 2 games left ... this would almost certainly sink us, barring a miracle 5-0 finish plus a B1G Tourney win or 2
If those 6 teams stay in the quads where they are now, we're on pace for 23 Q1/Q2 games before B1G Tourney ---- We'd be 2-8 now in Q1 with 5 games left / 5-3 in Q2 with 0 games left

Bottom line: We need a handful of opponents' games to go our way, plus we need some more wins ourselves. So it's a typical NCAA bubble season in mid-February for us ... minus watching Delaware State scores. Go MVSU!

brfrad · February 18, 2019

The RPI is horrible as evidenced by our ranking. KenPom is definitely a good barometer. I've been looking at Sports-refence.com. According to their rating system, we are having our 2nd best season ever behind 1990-91 when we went 26 - 8.

Looking at the Big 10 tournament, running a few scenarios through the Big 10 Generator. We would face Illinois or Minnesota in the first round, if we finish 3 - 2. Need to play Minnesota, and hope they get below 50 in NET. We don't match up well with them, but give us another Q1 win.

hhcmatt · February 18, 2019

17 minutes ago, throwback said:

CREIGHTON - #63 after another loss at home Sunday – so to stay as Q2 (W) they need to ... ahhh, screw 'em. Don't care if they fall to Q4.

They lost to Seton Hall so this was a guilt free schadenfreude game

throwback · February 18, 2019

14 minutes ago, brfrad said:

The RPI is horrible as evidenced by our ranking. KenPom is definitely a good barometer. I've been looking at Sports-refence.com. According to their rating system, we are having our 2nd best season ever behind 1990-91 when we went 26 - 8.

Looking at the Big 10 tournament, running a few scenarios through the Big 10 Generator. We would face Illinois or Minnesota in the first round, if we finish 3 - 2. Need to play Minnesota, and hope they get below 50 in NET. We don't match up well with them, but give us another Q1 win.

Good point - every B1G Tourney game, minus Rutgers, will be at least Q2 with plenty of Q1 chances. A deep run there will greatly boost someone's resume.

throwback · February 18, 2019

Here's a look at how we stack up vs the rest of the Top 60 in the NET ... as of Feb. 15 - that's the latest Nitty Gritty the NCAA has put out, so no weekend games in here.

Based on NET rankings thru Feb 15

Top 60 NET teams - Plus **other Big 10 teams

Q1 Games Played

· 14 – Kansas

· 13 – Michigan St

· 13 – Wisconsin

· 12 – Purdue

· 12 - Indiana

^·10 – Nebraska (tied for 10^th out of 60)

· ** Penn State – 14

· ** Illinois - 12

· 0 - Nevada

Q1 Wins

· 10 – Michigan St

· 9 – Kansas

· 7 – Wisconsin

· 7 – Kentucky

· 7 – Marquette

· 7 – Virginia

· 7 – Duke

· 2 – Nebraska (tied for 34^th out of 60)

· 0 – Northwestern** / UCF / Nevada / San Francisco / Hofstra / Toledo / New Mexico St

Q1 and Q2 Games Played

· 20 - Kansas

· 19 – Wisconsin

· 18 – Nebraska (tied for 3^rd out of 60)

· 18 – Michigan St / Purdue / Texas / Oklahoma / Oklahoma St

· ** Illinois - 18

· 4 – Hofstra / Toledo / New Mexico St

Q1 and Q2 wins

· 14 – Kansas

· 14 – Michigan

· 14 – Houston

· 13 – Duke

· 13 – Michigan St

· 12 – Virginia / Marquette / LSU / Villanova

· 11 – Tennessee / Texas Tech / Maryland / Purdue/ Wisconsin

· 10 – Kentucky / Kansas St / Iowa / N Carolina / Baylor / Missi St

· 7 – Nebraska (tied for 29^th out of 60)

· 1 – Hofstra / San Francisco

Through Feb. 15, 20 teams have 10+ Q1/Q2 wins – last year, 23 of 24 teams with 10+ Q1/Q2 wins on Selection Sunday made the NCAA Tourney

Looks like there will be 25 - 30 teams with 10+ Q1/Q2 wins this season.

Mr. Red · February 18, 2019

6 minutes ago, throwback said:

Here's a look at how we stack up vs the rest of the Top 60 in the NET ... as of Feb. 15 - that's the latest Nitty Gritty the NCAA has put out, so no weekend games in here.

Based on NET rankings thru Feb 15

Top 60 NET teams - Plus **other Big 10 teams

Q1 Games Played

·         14 – Kansas

·         13 – Michigan St

·         13 – Wisconsin

·         12 – Purdue

·         12 - Indiana

^·10 – Nebraska (tied for 10^th out of 60)

·         ** Penn State – 14

·         ** Illinois - 12

·         0 - Nevada

Q1 Wins

·         10 – Michigan St

·         9 – Kansas

·         7 – Wisconsin

·         7 – Kentucky

·         7 – Marquette

·         7 – Virginia

·         7 – Duke

·         2 – Nebraska (tied for 34^th out of 60)

·         0 – Northwestern** / UCF / Nevada / San Francisco / Hofstra / Toledo / New Mexico St

Q1 and Q2 Games Played

·         20 - Kansas

·         19 – Wisconsin

·         18 – Nebraska (tied for 3^rd out of 60)

·         18 – Michigan St / Purdue / Texas / Oklahoma / Oklahoma St

·         ** Illinois - 18

·         4 – Hofstra / Toledo / New Mexico St

Q1 and Q2 wins

·         14 – Kansas

·         14 – Michigan

·         14 – Houston

·         13 – Duke

·         13 – Michigan St

·         12 – Virginia / Marquette / LSU / Villanova

·         11 – Tennessee / Texas Tech / Maryland / Purdue/ Wisconsin

·         10 – Kentucky / Kansas St / Iowa / N Carolina / Baylor / Missi St

·         7 – Nebraska (tied for 29^th out of 60)

· 1 – Hofstra / San Francisco

Through Feb. 15, 20 teams have 10+ Q1/Q2 wins – last year, 23 of 24 teams with 10+ Q1/Q2 wins on Selection Sunday made the NCAA Tourney

Looks like there will be 25 - 30 teams with 10+ Q1/Q2 wins this season.

Great information here. Thank you for putting it all together for us to digest!

Nevada with ZERO Q1 games played... not surprising I guess but fascinating nonetheless.

throwback · February 18, 2019

Nevada is 8-0 in Q2 - but they have a couple of teams on the Q1/Q2 cut line, so they may end up with a Q1 win or two when it's all finished.

Houston kind of surprised me, 4-1 in Q1 and 10-0 in Q2. That's a lot of impressive wins.

Will be interesting to see how the committee handles those two teams. Houston deserves a 2 seed especially if they win at Cincy to close out the season.

Edited February 18, 2019 by throwback

Fullbacksympathy · February 18, 2019

40 minutes ago, throwback said:

Here's a look at how we stack up vs the rest of the Top 60 in the NET ... as of Feb. 15 - that's the latest Nitty Gritty the NCAA has put out, so no weekend games in here.

Based on NET rankings thru Feb 15

Top 60 NET teams - Plus **other Big 10 teams

Q1 Games Played

·         14 – Kansas

·         13 – Michigan St

·         13 – Wisconsin

·         12 – Purdue

·         12 - Indiana

^·10 – Nebraska (tied for 10^th out of 60)

·         ** Penn State – 14

·         ** Illinois - 12

·         0 - Nevada

Q1 Wins

·         10 – Michigan St

·         9 – Kansas

·         7 – Wisconsin

·         7 – Kentucky

·         7 – Marquette

·         7 – Virginia

·         7 – Duke

·         2 – Nebraska (tied for 34^th out of 60)

·         0 – Northwestern** / UCF / Nevada / San Francisco / Hofstra / Toledo / New Mexico St

Q1 and Q2 Games Played

·         20 - Kansas

·         19 – Wisconsin

·         18 – Nebraska (tied for 3^rd out of 60)

·         18 – Michigan St / Purdue / Texas / Oklahoma / Oklahoma St

·         ** Illinois - 18

·         4 – Hofstra / Toledo / New Mexico St

Q1 and Q2 wins

·         14 – Kansas

·         14 – Michigan

·         14 – Houston

·         13 – Duke

·         13 – Michigan St

·         12 – Virginia / Marquette / LSU / Villanova

·         11 – Tennessee / Texas Tech / Maryland / Purdue/ Wisconsin

·         10 – Kentucky / Kansas St / Iowa / N Carolina / Baylor / Missi St

·         7 – Nebraska (tied for 29^th out of 60)

· 1 – Hofstra / San Francisco

Through Feb. 15, 20 teams have 10+ Q1/Q2 wins – last year, 23 of 24 teams with 10+ Q1/Q2 wins on Selection Sunday made the NCAA Tourney

Looks like there will be 25 - 30 teams with 10+ Q1/Q2 wins this season.

Man... 3 wins and I bet we get the nod based on last year. That's including the BTT. By the metrics, we essentially have no bad losses and several notable wins.

Defend home court. If the argument is strictly academic, I would guess we're going to have a decent one if we pick off a couple of ranked teams at home.

throwback · February 19, 2019

Also interesting on Selection Sunday in 2018:

Last season, of the 20 teams that had 10+ Q1/Q2 wins and were ranked in the top 40 of the RPI, all received a bid, and all were at least a 10 seed.

Of the teams outside the top 40 of RPI with 10+ Q1/Q2 wins:

Alabama had 11 Q1/Q2 wins, was ranked #42 in RPI --- 9 Seed
Missouri had 10 Q1/Q2 wins, was ranked #43 in RPI --- 8 Seed
Florida had 13 Q1/Q2 wins, was ranked #46 in RPI --- 6 Seed
Georgia had 10 Q1/Q2 wins, was ranked #79 in RPI --- NO BID

Of the non-Top-40-RPI teams that didn’t reach 10+ Q1/Q2 wins but had at least 5 Q1 wins:

Oklahoma had 6 Q1 wins, was ranked #49 in RPI ---- 10 Seed
Texas had 6 Q1 wins, was ranked #51 in RPI ---- 10 Seed
Virginia Tech had 5 Q1 wins, was ranked #61 in RPI --- 8 Seed
Oklahoma St had 5 Q1 wins, was ranked #88 in RPI ---- NO BID
LSU had 6 Q1 wins, was ranked #94 in RPI ---- NO BID

So if the NCAA committee follows last year's pattern:

Get to 10+ Q1/Q2 wins and finish in the Top 40 of NET = in
Get to 10+ Q1/Q2 wins or get to 5+ Q1 wins and have a decent NET rating (top 50s) = probably in

Sign In

New NET Rankings

Recommended Posts

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

HuskerActuary

hhcmatt

throwback

Posted Images

Join the conversation

Similar Content

Recently Browsing 0 members