Selection Committee Games of Interest

[nustudent]

19 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

Yeah I know. I guess I'm just frustrated that the NCAA uses a system where wins against Buffalo, Loyola-Chicago, and Louisiana- Lafayette, are much more valuable than wins against Penn State, Indiana and Boston College.

 

I think the system is flawed...but also have to acknowledge that there is no perfect system.   I think the RPI pry gets it right more than it doesnt.   Unfortunately sometimes it does paint a scary picture and it just sucks that in a rare instance of success for us....we have to be the exception

[Ron Mexico]

It is going to be very difficult for the committee to leave out a team that goes 13-5 in the BIG finishing 4th. You leave out teams like from mid-majors but not the top conferences.

I know I know metrics blah blah blah. Behind closed doors it is going to be difficult to argue against Nebraska, providing they beat PSU.

[big red22]

I know a ton of people use the Bracket Matrix...

 

Well right now they have 11 SEC teams ahead of us at the moment...  No f'ing way in hell they get 11 teams in... I see 9 at most... Two spots open

 

ACC has 11 ahead of us as well... No way that happens... I see 9 at most... There is two more

 

BIG 12 has 8 ahead of us... No way the get 80% of their teams in... I see them getting 7 at the most at that is pushing it.  My guess is they get 6... There is 2 more

 

Big East has 7 ahead of us... That is possible, but I see them as a 6 bid league... One more

 

PAC 12 has 6 teams ahead of us... I see them as a 4 bid league max... So there is two more

 

Big 10 has 6 teams ahead of us... If we beat Penn St. we will be picked before them and no way do we get picked behind Maryland... So there is two more

 

Once again 13-5 in a Top 6 conference is different than 13-5 in the Missouri Valley

 

13-5 in the Big 10 is going to get picked over a 7-11 or 8-10 SEC, ACC, Big East and Big 12 team.  No doubt in my mind.  No opinion will convince me otherwise, so don't bother with the Quadrants and quality wins counter.  In my opinion 13 wins in a Top 6 conference is 13 quality wins, don't care how down they think it is. 

 

This down league has 4 teams in the top 20, the SEC has two.  I don't want to hear that our wins are against the bottom of the league, because Purdue lost to one of those teams Wisconsin?  Michigan lost to Northwestern... Penn State lost to the bad Minnesota, Wisconsin and Northwestern?

 

If the league is so down why did Northwestern struggle... Or Maryland?  It is all perception in the end if we finish 13-5 I just can not see us left out.  I am fairly confident in saying a 13-5 power conference team has never been left out in it's history outside of the 2011-2012 PAC 12.  Don't get me started with how crappy that conference was.  The highest RPI in that PAC 12 was 45.  This Big 10 is not even close to as bad as that conference!

 

Edited February 21, 2018 by big red22

[HuskerFever]

4 hours ago, big red22 said:

I know a ton of people use the Bracket Matrix...

 

I'm not sure how @HuskerActuary feels on the matter, but I certainly wouldn't put too much faith in terms of where they rank us in the field/bubble. That really only helps for the team's who have nearly all 100+ brackets reflect where they stand. If we're only in 10 or so brackets, you're missing out on a lot of data of where we actually stand since it only reflects whether you're in the field or not. Lunardi would have a much more accurate prediction of the bubble teams than this aggregate  source. What I do find value in this source is: of the brackets that have us in, where do they put us?

[HuskerActuary]

1 minute ago, HuskerFever said:

 

I'm not sure how @HuskerActuary feels on the matter, but I certainly wouldn't put too much faith in terms of where they rank us in the field/bubble. That really only helps for the team's who have nearly all 100+ brackets reflect where they stand. If we're only in 10 or so brackets, you're missing out on a lot of data of where we actually stand since it only reflects whether you're in the field or not. Lunardi would have a much more accurate prediction of the bubble teams than this aggregate  source. What I do find value in this source is: of the brackets that have us in, where do they put us?

Nailed it. Bracket Matrix is great to understand how many brackets we are in, but not necessarily a good view of where we are on the bubble since he is only charting teams in the field. If every bracketologist were to also submit their first four out or first eight out and Bracket Matrix were to assign points to those and incorporate them in the ranking somehow, it would be much more valuable for teams like us because more data would be incorporated. But one team being in ten brackets versus another being in five brackets out of 100 doesn't really tell you which one is closer.

 

That said, I refresh Bracket Matrix multiple times per day

[hhcmatt]

5 hours ago, big red22 said:

If the league is so down why did Northwestern struggle... Or Maryland?

 

Northwestern was playing all of their home games at a temporary home (among other things) and Maryland lost their best player to injury

 

The rest about the other leagues knocking each other out? I'll buy that.

[Huskerpapa]

Are Oklahoma and Creighton playing themselves out of the tournament?  Not trying to be anything other than inquisitive.  Oklahoma has played abysmal ball over the past three weeks.  When I saw the Creighton score last night, I just about spit out my water.  Is it possible for teams that were firmly in the dance, to play themselves completely out?

[Nebrasketball1979]

Interesting rooting interest game tonight with Michigan-Penn St.  A Penn St. win guarantees we finish 4th in the league.  However, a Penn St. win also knocks Michigan below the top 30 in RPI and our win against them earlier in the year becomes Quadrant 2 again.  So, while Rasmussen gave me hope a week ago that the committee will take these Quadrants with a grain of salt, I would personally like to see Michigan win tonight so I don't have to hear the constant national narrative how Nebraska has 0 Quadrant 1 wins.  I also have zero interest in potentially playing Penn St. two times in a row to end the season and that 2nd Penn St. game would also not be a Quadrant 1 win in the quarters of the BIG tourney as their RPI would most likely not be below 50.  Give me Michigan, reluctantly.

[HuskerActuary]

10 minutes ago, huskercwg said:

Are Oklahoma and Creighton playing themselves out of the tournament?  Not trying to be anything other than inquisitive.  Oklahoma has played abysmal ball over the past three weeks.  When I saw the Creighton score last night, I just about spit out my water.  Is it possible for teams that were firmly in the dance, to play themselves completely out?

Getting closer, I think. OU is probably still near 80% chance of making the tournament, Creighton probably 75%. But it's getting interesting.

[49r]

19 minutes ago, HuskerActuary said:

Getting closer, I think. OU is probably still near 80% chance of making the tournament, Creighton probably 75%. But it's getting interesting.

 

Yeah, let's see the Oklahoma and Creighton tournament gizmos!!!

[Ron Mexico]

6 hours ago, big red22 said:

I know a ton of people use the Bracket Matrix...

 

Well right now they have 11 SEC teams ahead of us at the moment...  No f'ing way in hell they get 11 teams in... I see 9 at most... Two spots open

 

ACC has 11 ahead of us as well... No way that happens... I see 9 at most... There is two more

 

BIG 12 has 8 ahead of us... No way the get 80% of their teams in... I see them getting 7 at the most at that is pushing it.  My guess is they get 6... There is 2 more

 

Big East has 7 ahead of us... That is possible, but I see them as a 6 bid league... One more

 

PAC 12 has 6 teams ahead of us... I see them as a 4 bid league max... So there is two more

 

Big 10 has 6 teams ahead of us... If we beat Penn St. we will be picked before them and no way do we get picked behind Maryland... So there is two more

 

Once again 13-5 in a Top 6 conference is different than 13-5 in the Missouri Valley

 

13-5 in the Big 10 is going to get picked over a 7-11 or 8-10 SEC, ACC, Big East and Big 12 team.  No doubt in my mind.  No opinion will convince me otherwise, so don't bother with the Quadrants and quality wins counter.  In my opinion 13 wins in a Top 6 conference is 13 quality wins, don't care how down they think it is. 

 

This down league has 4 teams in the top 20, the SEC has two.  I don't want to hear that our wins are against the bottom of the league, because Purdue lost to one of those teams Wisconsin?  Michigan lost to Northwestern... Penn State lost to the bad Minnesota, Wisconsin and Northwestern?

 

If the league is so down why did Northwestern struggle... Or Maryland?  It is all perception in the end if we finish 13-5 I just can not see us left out.  I am fairly confident in saying a 13-5 power conference team has never been left out in it's history outside of the 2011-2012 PAC 12.  Don't get me started with how crappy that conference was.  The highest RPI in that PAC 12 was 45.  This Big 10 is not even close to as bad as that conference!

 

They aren't going to leave out a 13-5/4th place BIG team for an 11th place SEC or ACC team.

[huskerbaseball13]

15 minutes ago, Ron Mexico said:

They aren't going to leave out a 13-5/4th place BIG team for an 11th place SEC or ACC team.

 

Unfortunately, I don't think this is correct.  When people say that the committee does not care about your conference finish I don't think they are lying  I'm not saying that's how it should be, but Nebraska finishing 4th in the Big Ten is unlikely to be a deciding factor.  The 11th place team in the SEC has an RPI of 25 and a SOS of 6.  To go a long with that they have 5 Tier one wins and 3 tier 2 wins.  If we fail to tack on another tier 1 win I think that resume easily gets in over us.  We just have to keep winning and hope other bubble teams continue to lose.  We have not had much luck in the past few days with bubble teams losing.  

[royalfan]

6 hours ago, big red22 said:

I know a ton of people use the Bracket Matrix...

 

Well right now they have 11 SEC teams ahead of us at the moment...  No f'ing way in hell they get 11 teams in... I see 9 at most... Two spots open

 

ACC has 11 ahead of us as well... No way that happens... I see 9 at most... There is two more

 

BIG 12 has 8 ahead of us... No way the get 80% of their teams in... I see them getting 7 at the most at that is pushing it.  My guess is they get 6... There is 2 more

 

Big East has 7 ahead of us... That is possible, but I see them as a 6 bid league... One more

 

PAC 12 has 6 teams ahead of us... I see them as a 4 bid league max... So there is two more

 

Big 10 has 6 teams ahead of us... If we beat Penn St. we will be picked before them and no way do we get picked behind Maryland... So there is two more

 

Once again 13-5 in a Top 6 conference is different than 13-5 in the Missouri Valley

 

13-5 in the Big 10 is going to get picked over a 7-11 or 8-10 SEC, ACC, Big East and Big 12 team.  No doubt in my mind.  No opinion will convince me otherwise, so don't bother with the Quadrants and quality wins counter.  In my opinion 13 wins in a Top 6 conference is 13 quality wins, don't care how down they think it is. 

 

This down league has 4 teams in the top 20, the SEC has two.  I don't want to hear that our wins are against the bottom of the league, because Purdue lost to one of those teams Wisconsin?  Michigan lost to Northwestern... Penn State lost to the bad Minnesota, Wisconsin and Northwestern?

 

If the league is so down why did Northwestern struggle... Or Maryland?  It is all perception in the end if we finish 13-5 I just can not see us left out.  I am fairly confident in saying a 13-5 power conference team has never been left out in it's history outside of the 2011-2012 PAC 12.  Don't get me started with how crappy that conference was.  The highest RPI in that PAC 12 was 45.  This Big 10 is not even close to as bad as that conference!

 

 

If any common sense is implemented, you are correct.  If they are dumb enough to rely on the RPI and the ludicrous quadrants that it spits out, then who knows.  

[Ron Mexico]

39 minutes ago, huskerbaseball13 said:

 

Unfortunately, I don't think this is correct.  When people say that the committee does not care about your conference finish I don't think they are lying  I'm not saying that's how it should be, but Nebraska finishing 4th in the Big Ten is unlikely to be a deciding factor.  The 11th place team in the SEC has an RPI of 25 and a SOS of 6.  To go a long with that they have 5 Tier one wins and 3 tier 2 wins.  If we fail to tack on another tier 1 win I think that resume easily gets in over us.  We just have to keep winning and hope other bubble teams continue to lose.  We have not had much luck in the past few days with bubble teams losing.  

We'll see how that plays out in the real world. I'd be curious to see a history of the modern NCAA tourny when a 4th place major conference team was left out. Could be wrong but I think the answer to that is never. The 11th place ACC team we beat head-to-head and they are 1-10 against Q1 teams.

Edited to Add: The 10th place ACC team is only 2-5 in Q1.

Edited February 21, 2018 by Ron Mexico

[tjp21]

7 hours ago, big red22 said:

I know a ton of people use the Bracket Matrix...

 

Well right now they have 11 SEC teams ahead of us at the moment...  No f'ing way in hell they get 11 teams in... I see 9 at most... Two spots open

 

ACC has 11 ahead of us as well... No way that happens... I see 9 at most... There is two more

 

BIG 12 has 8 ahead of us... No way the get 80% of their teams in... I see them getting 7 at the most at that is pushing it.  My guess is they get 6... There is 2 more

 

Big East has 7 ahead of us... That is possible, but I see them as a 6 bid league... One more

 

PAC 12 has 6 teams ahead of us... I see them as a 4 bid league max... So there is two more

 

Big 10 has 6 teams ahead of us... If we beat Penn St. we will be picked before them and no way do we get picked behind Maryland... So there is two more

 

Once again 13-5 in a Top 6 conference is different than 13-5 in the Missouri Valley

 

13-5 in the Big 10 is going to get picked over a 7-11 or 8-10 SEC, ACC, Big East and Big 12 team.  No doubt in my mind.  No opinion will convince me otherwise, so don't bother with the Quadrants and quality wins counter.  In my opinion 13 wins in a Top 6 conference is 13 quality wins, don't care how down they think it is. 

 

This down league has 4 teams in the top 20, the SEC has two.  I don't want to hear that our wins are against the bottom of the league, because Purdue lost to one of those teams Wisconsin?  Michigan lost to Northwestern... Penn State lost to the bad Minnesota, Wisconsin and Northwestern?

 

If the league is so down why did Northwestern struggle... Or Maryland?  It is all perception in the end if we finish 13-5 I just can not see us left out.  I am fairly confident in saying a 13-5 power conference team has never been left out in it's history outside of the 2011-2012 PAC 12.  Don't get me started with how crappy that conference was.  The highest RPI in that PAC 12 was 45.  This Big 10 is not even close to as bad as that conference!

 

 

In theory, I think what this shows is a lot of teams ahead of us still have to play each other and may knock each other out.  Or at least that's my hope.

 

As far as the OU opinion, I live in OKC so I get to watch a lot of their games and listen to a lot of local media.  The consensus around here is they definitely aren't playing like a tourney team.  Most don't think they deserve in right now but think their early season resume will hold up if they can manage to get two more wins. If they don't win 2 of their last 3 they will have work to do in the tourney. They have KSU, @Baylor, and ISU left and then the conf tourney where it looks like they'd be a lower seeded team. If they end up 6 or lower they'd play on day 1 against another lower seeded team so it might take 2 tourney wins to be safe. IMO the key game for them will be KState at home.  If they get that I'd bet they manage to get at least one more and get in. Lose, and it gets hairy.  Baylor is playing well and should have beaten them earlier in the year in Norman and they already got smoked by ISU in Ames so that one isn't a gimme either.  The nice thing for us is Baylor isn't a lock yet either so if Baylor were to lose that home game it would hurt them too.  Plus if they end up in the 6-10 spot for the BigXII tourney they might square off against another bubble team in the 1st round like Texas where one of them knocks the other out.

[huskerbaseball13]

7 minutes ago, Ron Mexico said:

We'll see how that plays out in the real world. I'd be curious to see a history of the modern NCAA tourny when a 4th place major conference team was left out. Could be wrong but I think the answer to that is never. The 11th place ACC team we beat head-to-head and they are 1-10 against Q1 teams.

 

We would be in rare company if we finish 13-5 and don't get in.  Per Seed Madness below is the best major conference records to not receive a bid

 

1. Washington 14-4 in 2012

2. Alabama 12-4 in 2011

3. Oregon 13-5 in 2012

4. Kentucky 12-6 in 2013

5. Alabama 12-6 in 2013

[khoock]

1 hour ago, huskercwg said:

Are Oklahoma and Creighton playing themselves out of the tournament?  Not trying to be anything other than inquisitive.  Oklahoma has played abysmal ball over the past three weeks.  When I saw the Creighton score last night, I just about spit out my water.  Is it possible for teams that were firmly in the dance, to play themselves completely out?

Dont follow Oklahoma enough, but assuming Creighton loses to Nova and on the road @ Marquette, IF they lose their first BE tourney game i could see them as out. That would put them at like a 1-8 finish or something like that.

[huskerbaseball13]

5 minutes ago, khoock said:

Dont follow Oklahoma enough, but assuming Creighton loses to Nova and on the road @ Marquette, IF they lose their first BE tourney game i could see them as out. That would put them at like a 1-8 finish or something like that.

 

Right now, a loss to Nova/Marquette puts them as the likely #7 seed in the Big East tournament.  So no bye for them.  In that scenario they will likely face DePaul.  Lose that game and I would be surprised if they get in at that point.  Win and then lose to Xavier in the next round and they are probably okay.  But they are squarely on the 8-10 seed range which is not a good thing for teams that want to get to the sweet 16.   

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

6 minutes ago, huskerbaseball13 said:

 

Right now, a loss to Nova/Marquette puts them as the likely #7 seed in the Big East tournament.  So no bye for them.  In that scenario they will likely face DePaul.  Lose that game and I would be surprised if they get in at that point.  Win and then lose to Xavier in the next round and they are probably okay.  But they are squarely on the 8-10 seed range which is not a good thing for teams that want to get to the sweet 16.   

 

How about a Nebraska-Creighton play-in game! That'd be awesome.

[bigFRED]

Love how Oklahoma had two good wins in November then traded wins with a few of the very down top big 12 teams and now theyre a lock because of how much they overrate this conference. These teams just beat up on each other and get credit for good wins. Oklahoma right now makes me physically ill.

[bigFRED]

1 minute ago, noahjb24 said:

Love how Oklahoma had two good wins in November then traded wins with a few of the very down top big 12 teams and now theyre a lock because of how much they overrate this conference. These teams just beat up on each other and get credit for good wins. Oklahoma right now makes me physically ill.

The Big 12 could get 8 bids and we could get 4 and we'd probably still have more sweet 16 teams and for sure more elite 8 and final 4 teams. This whole thing makes me sick

Edited February 21, 2018 by noahjb24

[big red22]

italic ( ) = Teams will need to get to 9 wins to get in the tournament. If these teams do not get to 9 wins they will be NIT bound and a 13-5 Nebraska team gets in over them.  I'm sorry, but I just do not see an 8-10 team getting in over a 13-5 Big 10 team. 

 

italic " " = Bubble teams even with more that 9 conference wins or other detailed information that is needed

 

italic [ ] = Separating the PAC 12 teams need 10 wins to get in over 13-5 Nebraska

• American East: 1 - Tournament Winner only
• AAC: 3 - Cincinnati, Houston and Wichita State
• A10: 2 - Rhode Island and St. Bonaventure
• ACC: 8-9 - Virginia, Duke, North Carolina and Clemson (Virginia Tech, Louisville, Florida State, Miami and Syracuse)
• Atlantic Sun: 1 - Tournament Winner only
• Big 12: 6 - Kansas, Texas Tech and West Virginia (Kansas State, Baylor, Texas, TCU and Oklahoma)
• Big East: - 6 Villanova, Xavier and Butler (Creighton, Seton Hall and Marquette)
• Big Sky: - 1 Tournament Winner only
• Big South: - 1 Tournament Winner only
• Big 10: 5-6 - Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State and Michigan "Nebraska and Penn State"
• Big West: 1 - Tournament Winner only
• Conference USA: 2 - Middle Tennessee State "Old Dominion and Western Kentucky"
• Horizon: 1 - Tournament Winner only
• Ivy: 1 - Tournament Winner only
• MAAC: 1 - Tournament Winner only
• MAC: 1 - "I don't see Buffalo getting in if they don't win the tournament."
• MEAC: 1 - Tournament Winner only
• MVC: 1 - "I don't see Loyola Chicago getting in if they don't win the tournament."
• Mountain West: 2 Nevada "Boise State and Fresno State"
• NEC: 1 - Tournament Winner only
• OVC: 1 - Tournament Winner only
• PAC 12: 4 - Arizona, USC and UCLA [Utah, Washington, Oregon and Arizona State]
• Patriot: 1 - Tournament Winner only
• SEC: 8-9 - Auburn and Tennessee (Alabama, Florida, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, LSU, Georgia and Texas A&M)
• Southern: 1 - Tournament Winner only
• Southland: 1 - Tournament Winner only
• SWAC: 1 - Tournament Winner only
• Summit: 1 - Tournament Winner only
• Sun Belt: 1 Tournament Winner only
• WCC: 2 - Gonzaga and St. Mary's
• WAC: 1 - Tournament Winner only

If you total up the high number on the list (Six for Big 10, nine for ACC and nine for SEC) there is a total of 71 teams listed and one of those 71 teams is Nebraska.

 

All teams in italic's are bubble teams in my opinion, because if any of them go 8-10 or worse I don't see them getting in. 

 

By my count there are 29 teams on that list other than Nebraska.  I'm not   If I was a betting man,  I would bet for certain that at least 2 of those teams don't finish the season the way they want to. 

 

[khoock]

So if we lose to Penn State, do we have to win the BTT or win 2-3 games (in case we drop to 5th seed)?

[hskr4life]

I just wish we knew what the committee was thinking.  It could opposite of the media, or it could be the same.

[big red22]

Just now, hskr4life said:

I just wish we knew what the committee was thinking.  It could opposite of the media, or it could be the same.

I honestly feel in the end as much as they say conference record doesn't matter.  A 13-5 Big 10 took care of their business, when a 8-10 team did not. 

 

That is where the committee steps in, and I just don't think that can go overlooked IMO