Nebraska on the Selection Committee Board

[HuskerActuary]

6 minutes ago, Swan88 said:

If Rutgers’s RPI is, truly, 348, that proves the irrationality of the ranking system

That's actually just Rutgers' non-conference strength-of-schedule, not the ranking of the team itself.

[Swan88]

23 minutes ago, HuskerActuary said:

That's actually just Rutgers' non-conference strength-of-schedule, not the ranking of the team itself.

Ah . . . Thanks for the clarification.  

But that even proves the point:

    How can you play (and defeat) two Big East teams (one in an exhibition) and play Florida State and still have a schedule ranked that low?

    

  

Edited January 29, 2018 by Swan88

[hhctony]

238 according to the RPI. Rutgers played 11 non-conference games, one against Seton Hall (19, RPI), the next best Stony Brook (228, loss). Best non-conference win was Central Connecticut State (245). Four wins are sub-300. Just awful. 

[Dead Dog Alley]

26 minutes ago, Swan88 said:

Ah . . . Thanks for the clarification.  

But that even proves the point:

    How can you play (and defeat) two Big East teams (one in an exhibition) and play Florida State and still have a schedule ranked that low?

    

  

 

Outside of Florida State (20 in the KenPom) and Seton Hall (32), here's who they played: Stony Brook (224), NJIT (245), Fordham (275), Central Connecticut (289), Farleigh Dickinson (291), East Carolina (314), Cleveland State (330), Bryant (338), and Coppin State (348).  And the way the RPI / KenPom rankings are calculated, that drags down the rankings of the whole conference.

[Donkey]

1. The BIG went 16-33 v P5/Big East. MD, PSU, Rutgers, and Minnesota only scheduled 2 P5/Big East games and loaded up on mostly small schools. Northwestern, Rutgers, Illinois, and Indiana lost a combined 7 games to out of conference schools with 100+ RPIs. MSU/Purdue were the only schools with winning records going a combined 7-2. The rest of the conference went 9-32. The BIG schools also had a losing record, 5-9, against mid major/small schools with RPIs of 1-99. 

 

That means  as the average BIG school scheduled 3.5 P5/Big East schools with one mid major/small school with a sub100 RPI. The remaining 8 schools on the schedule were cupcakes. 

 

Comparatively, the Big East went 19-17 against P5 schools with botton feeders DePaul and Georgetown going 0-6. Georgetown’s scheduling was poor (only 1 P5 games, no other schools with a sub100 RPI on its schedule). The Big East only lost 2 games to RPI 100+ schools (Illinois and Rutgers). Interestingly enough, the Big East schools scheduled 20 games against mid major/small schools with sub100 RPIs going 14-6. 

 

Disregarding Georgtown, each BIg East school scheduled an average of 4 P5 schools and 2 schools from mid major/small conferences with sub100 RPIs. That is half of their non conference schedule. Clearly, the BIG needs to schedule better. 

 

2. The more I look over the remaining schedules, I can see the BIG getting 5 bids but things need to break in Nebraska’s favor. 

 

3.  Penn State may be the most interesting to watch over the month.  It plays Iowa, Illinois, MSU, tOSU, Purdue, Michigan, Maryland, and Nebraska to close out the season.  Before it won the tOSU game, I figured 2-6 would be best case scenario.   

Edited January 29, 2018 by Donkey

[Swan88]

That’s terrible reasoning for bringing down an entire conference (this is responding to Dog, not Donkey).  Granted, Rutgers scheduled poorly and had some terrible luck in December.  But they are still a more-than-decent team.  To repeat, just ask the following teams, all of which have played tough schedules:

 

St. John’s, who lost to Rutgers 80-78 in an exhibition game

Seton Hall, who lost to Rutgers 71-65

Michigan State, who beat Rutgers twice: 62-52 & 76-72

Wisconsin, who lost to a Rutgers 64-60

Iowa, who lost to Rutgers 80-64

 

To repeat again:  Rutgers beat TWO teams from the beloved and adored and incomparable Big East!  Not bad for a team with a terrible record that brings down the entire Conference.

Edited January 29, 2018 by Swan88

[HuskerActuary]

14 hours ago, HuskerActuary said:

We are probably around the eighth team out right now. We are starting to show up on quite a few "next four out"s on the brackets that have been updated since yesterday on Bracket Matrix. Unlike what Shelby Mast says, I definitely think we'll be nearing the true bubble with a win tomorrow... i.e. showing up in at least, say, 10% of brackets.

Just did a quick browse through Bracket Matrix. Many brackets have already updated through the weekend. This still feels about right - we are probably the eighth team out right now or so.

 

The one bracket that we are 'in' needs to update his bracket today or else he will fall off of Bracket Matrix.

[Huskerpapa]

Since before the season started I have mentioned that this is the year that we will provide shock and awe.  We have provided that shock and awe to some, but not to all.  We simply need to keep winning and the national shock and awe will commence.

[HuskerFever]

Here's what we're up against as of today (according to ESPN bracketology):

 

Last Four Byes
USC: 17-6 (8-2) / 8 games remaining / 2 ranked teams remaining
Marquette: 13 -8 (4-5) / 9 / 0
Texas A&M: 13-8 (2-6) / 10 / 1
Houston: 16-4 (6-2 ) / 10 / 2

 

Last Four In
Boise State: 18-4 (8-2) / 8 / 1
SMU: 15-7 (5-4) / 9 / 2
NC State: 15-7 (5-4) / 9 / 1
Syracuse: 15-6 (4-4) / 10 / 4

 

First Four Out
Missouri: 13-8 (3-5) / 10 / 0
Virginia Tech: 15-6 (4-4) / 10 / 4
Western Kentucky: 15-6 (7-1) / 10 / 0
Washington: 15-6 (5-3) / 10 / 2

 

Next Four Out
Maryland: 15-8 (4-6) / 8 / 2
Notre Dame: 13-8 (3-5) / 10 / 3
South Carolina: 13-8 (4-4) / 10 / 4
Georgia: 12-8 (3-5) / 10 / 5

[bigFRED]

How are some of those teams ahead of us with losing conference records and are like 13-8?

[PimpMario]

How are some of those teams ahead of us with losing conference records and are like 13-8?

Resume?

[AuroranHusker]

Big Ten picked a bad year to be subpar for Nebraska's tourney hopes resting on accumulating B1G wins....

[hskr4life]

Honestly, there are a few teams that are kind of a joke in there....

 

Texas A&M 13-8, 2-6 and they get a bye? Bahaha

 

Marquette still with a bye?

 

Syracuse gets in because they have a 3 game winning streak of Pitt, BC, Pitt? 

 

Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee will steal 2 bids.  Sucks.  That shouldn’t happen.  But it will probably.  I could also see the loser there getting snubbed.

 

Really there isn’t too many teams on there that don’t have flaws like us.  I’m actually kind of pissed we aren’t on the bubble when looking more closely.  We very much deserve to be.

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

18 minutes ago, noahjb24 said:

How are some of those teams ahead of us with losing conference records and are like 13-8?

 

Look at their KenPom ratings, which factor in Strength of Schedule: https://kenpom.com/

 

Nebraska: 61

Marquette: 38

Texas A&M: 36

Missouri: 49

Notre Dame: 34

South Carolina: 70

Georgia: 69

 

Now, obviously SC and Georgia are below us, but SC has beaten Kentucky (25) and @ Florida (21). The committee likes that. Then Georgia has wins against St. Mary's (16), @ Marquette (38), Alabama (56), and LSU (64). The committee loves seeing big non-con wins, which Georgia has two (including a road win).

 

The only win that we have that's comparable to any of those is Michigan (24). And our best road win is Northwestern (82).

Edited January 29, 2018 by Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

2 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Really there isn’t too many teams on there that don’t have flaws like us.  I’m actually kind of pissed we aren’t on the bubble when looking more closely.  We very much deserve to be.

 

I agree that we're a tournament-worthy team, though I'm not saying we have a tournament-worthy resume. But how can you say that we don't have flaws? We're terrible at rebounding, which is considered by many to be a huge liability come tournament time.

[HuskerFever]

24 minutes ago, noahjb24 said:

How are some of those teams ahead of us with losing conference records and are like 13-8?

 

We're also a week ahead of all of those non-Big Ten teams. If we're not in the conversation now, it's a much further climb than other teams on the bubble.

[Norm Peterson]

14 hours ago, Swan88 said:

“Currently, the Big Ten is sixth in conference RPI.”

 

So . . . how is a conference to raise its RPI once it gets into conference play?  The answer is, under current projections, “It can’t.”  

Are we saying that a conference making a run in November and December (or that gets lucky around the holidays) is locked into a high RPI for March?  Or a conference with a bunch of newcomers and a tough-go in the early season is relegated to mostly-NIT?  That’s silliness, bordering on the ridiculous.  

Teams—and conferences—progress and regress over the course of a season: and that’s patently obvious in the current season.

Here’s betting the fourteen-team B1G does better than the current three- or four-team projection.

 

Great point, Swan.  That's kinda the thing.  The conference's rpi is more or less fixed once all the non-con games have been played and, from there, it's kind of an incestuous process of seeing how good you are relative to the rest of a conference that is considered to still be only however good it was prior to the end of December.  That seems an obviously flawed approach.

 

A couple schools schedule poorly and a couple of others stub their toes in the non-con and it sets a low baseline for the conference that the teams within it then cannot escape.

 

I agree with Crispin that this is a team that could do some damage in the NCAA tourney and is good enough to be there.  But we might not make it because we've been weighed down by how the other teams in our conference played before the conference season started.  Well, also weighed down by the fact that two of our non-con opponents hit the skids after we played them.

Edited January 29, 2018 by Norm Peterson

[AuroranHusker]

4 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

We're also a week ahead of all of those non-Big Ten teams. If we're not in the conversation now, it's a much further climb than other teams on the bubble.

 

As long as the actual committee strongly considers Nebraska, that's the primary concern for a Big Ten component representing the Huskers in the selection process.

 

Edited January 29, 2018 by AuroranHusker

[Norm Peterson]

Is there any process or program out there where you can change some events to see how, say, a win versus KU would affect our current rpi?

 

I don't want to change the results of any of our games to see "what if."  What I want to do is see what the difference would have been if St. John's and UCF finished the year where they were when we played them.  How much of a boost do we get if St. John's is still around a top 50-60 team?

[ladyhusker]

 

Great point, Swan.  That's kinda the thing.  The conference's rpi is more or less fixed once all the non-con games have been played and, from there, it's kind of an incestuous process of seeing how good you are relative to the rest of a conference that is considered to still be only however good it was prior to the end of December.  That seems an obviously flawed approach.

 

A couple schools schedule poorly and a couple of others stub their toes in the non-con and it sets a low baseline for the conference that the teams within it then cannot escape.

 

I agree with Crispin that this is a team that could do some damage in the NCAA tourney and is good enough to be there.  But we might not make it because we've been weighed down by how the other teams in our conference played before the conference season started.  Well, also weighed down by the fact that two of our non-con opponents his the skids after we played them.

That seems to be the crappy, inequitable part of this. When we played UCF and St. John's (and hell, Minnesota) their trajectories were far different than they are now, yet when it comes to our resume we're judged by where they currently are (post injuries/law issues). But the Big Ten conference as a whole doesn't receive that benefit; we're judged by where we were in December. Maybe some years that's a good thing, I don't know, but it doesn't seem to be a good system to judge a real, accurate, national picture, if that truly is how the system works.

 

Hopefully an eye test by the humans in the room can mitigate some of that computer damage -- I might be biased, but I just have a tough time believing the Big Ten in February is the sixth-best conference out there (where I guess maybe the Big Ten in December might have been).

 

Ps please enjoy my semicolon usage...

 

 

 

[HuskerPower #nato73]

14 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

Is there any process or program out there where you can change some events to see how, say, a win versus KU would affect our current rpi?

 

I don't want to change the results of any of our games to see "what if."  What I want to do is see what the difference would have been if St. John's and UCF finished the year where they were when we played them.  How much of a boost do we get if St. John's is still around a top 50-60 team?

 

Enjoy:  http://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Nebraska&year=2018

 

 

[royalfan]

I think the coaches need to have a conference led discussion about scheduling and what the best approach is for the league to have the highest ceiling and floor in the most important measuring systems.  With the brilliance of the academics in this league etc. the league should not be getting outgamed in this key element.  

[hhctony]

15 minutes ago, noahjb24 said:

How are some of those teams ahead of us with losing conference records and are like 13-8?

 

Last Four Byes
USC: 17-6 (8-2) / 8 games remaining / 2 ranked teams remaining Conference record. Defeated Middle Tennessee in non-conference.
Marquette: 13 -8 (4-5) / 9 / 0 won at Wisconsin and vs. LSU in non-conference. Defeated ranked Seton Hall.
Texas A&M: 13-8 (2-6) / 10 / 1 Living on non-conference resume for another week, but need some wins. Beat Penn State, USC, West Virginia, Oklahoma State.
Houston: 16-4 (6-2 ) / 10 / 2 defeated Wake, Arkansas, Providence in non-conference. Wichita State in conference.

 

Last Four In
Boise State: 18-4 (8-2) / 8 / 1 Not much here. Won at Oregon. Loyola-IL a decent win. Nice conference record.
SMU: 15-7 (5-4) / 9 / 2 Beat Arizona, USC and Boise. By now you can see how that Russian 3 at PBA is killing us.
NC State: 15-7 (5-4) / 9 / 1 Beat Arizona, Penn State, Duke, at Carolina.
Syracuse: 15-6 (4-4) / 10 / 4 Maryland, UConn and Buffalo could all be better wins than any we have in the non-conference.

 

First Four Out
Missouri: 13-8 (3-5) / 10 / 0 Beat Iowa State, UCF and St. John's, but gonna need some wins.
Virginia Tech: 15-6 (4-4) / 10 / 4 Washington (neutral), at Mississippi, Iowa, North Carolina.
Western Kentucky: 15-6 (7-1) / 10 / 0 Living off Purdue and SMU.
Washington: 15-6 (5-3) / 10 / 2 Kansas (neutral), USC.

 

Next Four Out
Maryland: 15-8 (4-6) / 8 / 2 Butler. But, we start to see teams we can overcome with wins...
Notre Dame: 13-8 (3-5) / 10 / 3 LSU, Wichita State. Lost five in a row and next two at Duke (tonight) and at NC State.
South Carolina: 13-8 (4-4) / 10 / 4 Comparable to us. Wins v Kentucky and at South Carolina better than anything we have.
Georgia: 12-8 (3-5) / 10 / 5 St. Mary's, Marquette, GT, Temple. Most of those better than anything we have. But, they need to start winning, too.

[hhctony]

6 minutes ago, royalfan said:

I think the coaches need to have a conference led discussion about scheduling and what the best approach is for the league to have the highest ceiling and floor in the most important measuring systems.  With the brilliance of the academics in this league etc. the league should not be getting outgamed in this key element.  

 

Sometimes you schedule based on previous teams being decent and then it backfires. What'd you like to avoid is those 250+ games. I don't think this is an overall conference thing to be honest. Only Rutgers was really bad and that's bringing us down a little, but most of what's brining us down conference-wise is we didn't beat anybody.

[OmahaHusker]

4 minutes ago, HuskerPower #nato73 said:

 

Enjoy:  http://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Nebraska&year=2018

 

 

 

This is really interesting thanks for sharing this. According to this site, I'm surprised it doesn't have us 100% in the field if we would've just beaten Creighton and Kansas. Looks like we'd still be in the first four out, but we'd be a legitimate bubble team.