Nebraska on the Selection Committee Board

[Nebrasketball1979]

1 hour ago, Timforthewin said:

Please for the life of me someone explain why Lunardi has Syracuse list ahead of us on his bracketology. 

Hit this link to compare these two resumes.

https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/NEB/CUSE

 

Quick version:

Nebraska: 1-5 vs. RPI (1-50); 2-3 vs. RPI (51-100); 7-0 vs. RPI (101-200)

Syracuse: 2-5 vs. RPI (1-50) *One of those is Buffalo...; 4-1 vs. RPI (51-100); 8-2 vs. RPI (101-200) Losses to 116 Wake Forest and 140 Georgia Tech.

 

I don't see what some bracketologists favor over the others. Because they have 1 more top 50 win it just negates those poor losses they have? We are doing what we can with the cards that were dealt to us, how can we be faulted for that?

 

 

Actually, in my opinion, I can't find much fault with how Lunardi has this.  We're only three slots below them so it's not like they are an 8 seed and we're in the first four out.  They have 1 more top 50 win, 2 more top 51-100 wins and six fewer games against the Top 200 RPI crowd.  I think it's perfectly defensible from a pure metrics standpoint.  However, I have watched Syracuse a couple of times over the past few weeks and just using my biased  "eye test", Nebraska is a more athletic and talented team and are clearly playing better currently.  We just have to hope the committee watches enough games to have healthy debates on what the computers are telling them as it relates to one team versus another versus what their eyes tell them.

[northwillriseagain]

17 hours ago, royalfan said:

Selection show a two hour affair on TBS with NBA guys that don't know what they are talking about.  

That’s turrible

[hskr4life]

10 minutes ago, Raidsker said:

On quick glance I didn't see this on here already.  The official team sheets are updated and available online.  They are in one pdf file so I could attach the whole thing as it was over the size limit.  Image of Nebraska is below.  Paints a pretty stark picture. 

I would guess we want:

UCF to stay Q2 so it doesn't become a lower level loss

Michigan to move back up to Q1

Maybe root for Penn State to have a little run (they have OSU, MSU, Purdue on road and OSU at home still!) then we avenge our road loss at home...

 

Need to keep wining no matter what happens! 

 

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/SitePages/Home.aspx

 

 

 

Mother of God... if you would have told me in December our Minnsota wins would be Tier 2 and 3 games, I would have told you that you were nuts.

 

Sorry.  But in no way is our wins over Minny and BC the same as beating LBSU....

Edited February 8, 2018 by hskr4life

[HuskerFever]

11 minutes ago, Raidsker said:

On quick glance I didn't see this on here already.  The official team sheets are updated and available online.  They are in one pdf file so I could attach the whole thing as it was over the size limit.  Image of Nebraska is below.  Paints a pretty stark picture. 

I would guess we want:

UCF to stay Q2 so it doesn't become a lower level loss

Michigan to move back up to Q1

Maybe root for Penn State to have a little run (they have OSU, MSU, Purdue on road and OSU at home still!) then we avenge our road loss at home...

 

Need to keep wining no matter what happens! 

 

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/SitePages/Home.aspx

 

 

 

The borderline teams we need to root for are Michigan, Northwestern, Minnesota, and Boston College. I don't see too many opportunities outside of those four teams to move the needle (tier-wise) for us.

[hskr4life]

5 hours ago, HuskerActuary said:

Still only in 8/108 brackets on Bracket Matrix after last night's update. Probably 40 of those have been updated since the Minnesota win. I really thought we would be well into the double digits by now.

 

I can understand how we are only in 8... what I don't understand is how Maryland is still in some......

[hskr4life]

 

[hskr4life]

That article was very encouraging.

[northwillriseagain]

18 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

The borderline teams we need to root for are Michigan, Northwestern, Minnesota, and Boston College. I don't see too many opportunities outside of those four teams to move the needle (tier-wise) for us.

With Penn States schedule, they could move to tier 1, but theyd have to essentially do the unthinkable and win every game up until ours.

[Norm Peterson]

Look how many of our quadrant 1 and 2 games were away.

 

Sure, we don't have a lot of wins in those two quadrants, but we have more wins than home games.  That should speak well for us.

 

Edit: I guess the quadrant system factors home/away out of the equation by the way it's structured such that there are more away teams per quadrant for all quadrants except quadrant 4.

Edited February 8, 2018 by Norm Peterson

[jdostal]

That touches on something about quadrants that is unfortunate for us this year. We had 5 games against opponents that would be quadrant 1 whether it was home or away. Four of those games were on the road. It would've been really nice to have a couple more "quadrant one regardless" games at home.

[HuskerFever]

On the bright side, we have an opportunity to get three Quadrant 1 wins at the beginning of March.

[Timforthewin]

1 hour ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

 

Actually, in my opinion, I can't find much fault with how Lunardi has this.  We're only three slots below them so it's not like they are an 8 seed and we're in the first four out.  They have 1 more top 50 win, 2 more top 51-100 wins and six fewer games against the Top 200 RPI crowd.  I think it's perfectly defensible from a pure metrics standpoint.  However, I have watched Syracuse a couple of times over the past few weeks and just using my biased  "eye test", Nebraska is a more athletic and talented team and are clearly playing better currently.  We just have to hope the committee watches enough games to have healthy debates on what the computers are telling them as it relates to one team versus another versus what their eyes tell them.

I get what you're saying, and I guess my initial reaction was brought on more from the fact of pure worry. I thought that our outing against Minnesota would've moved the needle more, but alas we still have work to do. I do still find it irritating that even with that 1 more top 50 win, it just negates the two poor losses they have. It seems that bracketologists are more interested in who you've beat rather than who you've slipped up to

[TourneyBound]

1 hour ago, HuskerFever said:

 

The borderline teams we need to root for are Michigan, Northwestern, Minnesota, and Boston College. I don't see too many opportunities outside of those four teams to move the needle (tier-wise) for us.

Ya Northwestern might make a run and get in the top 75 over next couple weeks

[Raidsker]

1 hour ago, Norm Peterson said:

Look how many of our quadrant 1 and 2 games were away.

 

Sure, we don't have a lot of wins in those two quadrants, but we have more wins than home games.  That should speak well for us.

 

Edit: I guess the quadrant system factors home/away out of the equation by the way it's structured such that there are more away teams per quadrant for all quadrants except quadrant 4.

It is factoring them IN. Road games are harder to win. Q1 away goes all the way down to 75. Neutral is down to 50 and home stops at 30. So q4 is only 241+ road games it above each quadrant.

 

What's crazy is smaller schools with high rpi... like Buffalo is 28. I don't know anything about them but can we pick them up for a road game quick?

 

 

[Swan88]

3 minutes ago, Raidsker said:

What's crazy is smaller schools with high rpi... like Buffalo is 28.

 

 

Buffalo is 28?!

That’s bizarre.  Their record is 18-6 overall and 10-1 in Conference.  

They’ve lost to every power 5 school they played: Rhode Island (Exhib.), Cincinnati, Syracuse, Texas A&M.  And they lost to South Dakota St.  

They beat UAB in overtime.  And that’s it for anyone significant outside their conference.  Other victories include Daemen, Canisius, Jacksonville St., Niagra, St. Bonaventure (oops, that was a loss), Delaware, Central Penn, Robert Morris, NJIT, Toledo, Ball St., Akron, Miami (Ohio), Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Easterrn Michigan, Ohio, Kent St. (oops, that was a loss too).

And the computers rank these guys substantially higher than the Huskers?  For real?!

[khoock]

34 minutes ago, Swan88 said:

Buffalo is 28?!

That’s bizarre.  Their record is 18-6 overall and 10-1 in Conference.  

They’ve lost to every power 5 school they played: Rhode Island (Exhib.), Cincinnati, Syracuse, Texas A&M.  And they lost to South Dakota St.  

They beat UAB in overtime.  And that’s it for anyone significant outside their conference.  Other victories include Daemen, Canisius, Jacksonville St., Niagra, St. Bonaventure (oops, that was a loss), Delaware, Central Penn, Robert Morris, NJIT, Toledo, Ball St., Akron, Miami (Ohio), Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Easterrn Michigan, Ohio, Kent St. (oops, that was a loss too).

And the computers rank these guys substantially higher than the Huskers?  For real?!

Their HC should hold a seminar on how to finesse the RPI. Could prob make some big bucks off of it ?

[HuskerFever]

7 minutes ago, khoock said:

Their HC should hold a seminar on how to finesse the RPI. Could prob make some big bucks off of it ?

 

Miles seems to know how to beat the system as well. But given our lack of success after the 2013-2014 season, I think he toned it down a bit.

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

1 hour ago, Swan88 said:

Buffalo is 28?!

That’s bizarre.  Their record is 18-6 overall and 10-1 in Conference.  

They’ve lost to every power 5 school they played: Rhode Island (Exhib.), Cincinnati, Syracuse, Texas A&M.  And they lost to South Dakota St.  

They beat UAB in overtime.  And that’s it for anyone significant outside their conference.  Other victories include Daemen, Canisius, Jacksonville St., Niagra, St. Bonaventure (oops, that was a loss), Delaware, Central Penn, Robert Morris, NJIT, Toledo, Ball St., Akron, Miami (Ohio), Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Easterrn Michigan, Ohio, Kent St. (oops, that was a loss too).

And the computers rank these guys substantially higher than the Huskers?  For real?!

 

Similar to Illinois State last year, and they didn't make the dance. I doubt Buffalo will either if they lose their conference tournament. Seems like the most important factor that the committee uses as a supplement to RPI is quality wins. They really care about quality wins... more than they do about avoiding quality losses.

[tcp]

3 hours ago, jdostal said:

That touches on something about quadrants that is unfortunate for us this year. We had 5 games against opponents that would be quadrant 1 whether it was home or away. Four of those games were on the road. It would've been really nice to have a couple more "quadrant one regardless" games at home.

 

It's also why I don't think the quadrant system survives this one and only season. this is a pretty big flaw. schedules are probably too determinant as it is; the quadrants have magnified what was already an acknowledged problem, especially in mis-weighted (uneven) conferences like ours, where you rotate the opponents you play twice. 

[rr52]

3 hours ago, Swan88 said:

Buffalo is 28?!

That’s bizarre.  Their record is 18-6 overall and 10-1 in Conference.  

They’ve lost to every power 5 school they played: Rhode Island (Exhib.), Cincinnati, Syracuse, Texas A&M.  And they lost to South Dakota St.  

They beat UAB in overtime.  And that’s it for anyone significant outside their conference.  Other victories include Daemen, Canisius, Jacksonville St., Niagra, St. Bonaventure (oops, that was a loss), Delaware, Central Penn, Robert Morris, NJIT, Toledo, Ball St., Akron, Miami (Ohio), Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Easterrn Michigan, Ohio, Kent St. (oops, that was a loss too).

And the computers rank these guys substantially higher than the Huskers?  For real?!

I think I just threw up in my mouth a little bit. I think their schedule has us all buffaloed.

[Norm Peterson]

5 hours ago, Raidsker said:

It is factoring them IN. Road games are harder to win. Q1 away goes all the way down to 75. Neutral is down to 50 and home stops at 30. So q4 is only 241+ road games it above each quadrant.

 

What's crazy is smaller schools with high rpi... like Buffalo is 28. I don't know anything about them but can we pick them up for a road game quick?

 

I don't think you understood my point.  I'm kinda saying the same thing you are.  The quadrant system renders home/away distinction moot for the most part because the quadrants are smaller for your home games (except quadrant 4.)  So, a quadrant 1 win is a quadrant 1 win regardless of whether it's home or away.

[Norm Peterson]

7 hours ago, jdostal said:

That touches on something about quadrants that is unfortunate for us this year. We had 5 games against opponents that would be quadrant 1 whether it was home or away. Four of those games were on the road. It would've been really nice to have a couple more "quadrant one regardless" games at home.

 

All but one of our quadrant 1 opponents were in the to 1/3 of the quadrant.

[Nebrasketball1979]

We have moved into 9 brackets on Bracket Matrix and now are listed 2nd among the "next four out".  Slow and steady wins the race, even if it's painfully slow!

[hhcmatt]

The Rutgers game isn't going to move the needle much...unless we lose.  Maryland and Illinois are considered coin flip games so winning those two would be the tipping point for a lot of bracketologists. 

[hhcmatt]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22371587/ncaa-men-basketball-selection-committee-apply-metrics-correctly