Bracketology

[TomEadesSucks]

Entering tonight, BracketMatrix had:

 

(12) St. John's - 11.36

(4th team out) Dayton - 11.40

(5th team out) Nebraska - 11.58

 

With St. John's losing at home and Dayton getting crushed, we will probably pass both teams when the rankings are updated next, which would put us the 3rd team out (I hope). Missouri will fall from 10.70 but probably not below us.

 

It'll make it easy to tell which bracketologists are worth paying attention to (assuming we win tomorrow, not that I'm taking that for granted it all). Ones that have Mizzou ahead of us aren't with a spit.

[Timforthewin]

Had a lot of time on my hands tonight, so I decided to calculate the average RPI of the opponents that some of our fellow bubble teams lost to, according to live-rpi.com. Now I realize this means virtually nothing, and a lot of it will change before the end of the season, but it is kind of interesting to see and some of these teams might surprise you, so I thought I'd share.

Providence - 48.38

St John's - 49.37

Nebraska - 50.2

Minnesota - 51.19

Tennessee - 58.22

Xavier - 65.34

Kansas State 65.53

Dayton - 68.19

Georgetown - A whopping 72

Mizzou - 73.94

[GoBigRed]

Had a lot of time on my hands tonight, so I decided to calculate the average RPI of the opponents that some of our fellow bubble teams lost to, according to live-rpi.com. Now I realize this means virtually nothing, and a lot of it will change before the end of the season, but it is kind of interesting to see and some of these teams might surprise you, so I thought I'd share.

Providence - 48.38

St John's - 49.37

Nebraska - 50.2

Minnesota - 51.19

Tennessee - 58.22

Xavier - 65.34

Kansas State 65.53

Dayton - 68.19

Georgetown - A whopping 72

Mizzou - 73.94

 

Exactly. Everyone wants to make such a big deal about our "bad" losses to teams outside the top 100. But then you look closer and the other 7 losses are to pretty damn good teams, thus our average is better than most. We are the 7th team in the Big Ten that would be in right now but I will say we deserve it more than the 4th or even 3rd SEC team that would get in (Tennessee/Missouri)

[doc1394]

First four out now in bracketmatrix. Only 3 behind other 2 teams ahead of us

[GoBigRed]

First four out now in bracketmatrix. Only 3 behind other 2 teams ahead of us

 

26 brackets were updated and we moved into 5. Up to 29 total now.

[Cookie Belcher]

Entering tonight, BracketMatrix had:

(12) St. John's - 11.36

(4th team out) Dayton - 11.40

(5th team out) Nebraska - 11.58

With St. John's losing at home and Dayton getting crushed, we will probably pass both teams when the rankings are updated next, which would put us the 3rd team out (I hope). Missouri will fall from 10.70 but probably not below us.

It'll make it easy to tell which bracketologists are worth paying attention to (assuming we win tomorrow, not that I'm taking that for granted it all). Ones that have Mizzou ahead of us aren't with a spit.

A lot of the ones on Bracketmatrix don't update everyday, but I agree with you once they update I hope we are above Missouri.

[Shuttlesworth]

Here is a comprehensive list of the 30 bubble teams currently fighting for 18 At-Large births. List is based off the Matrix and adjusted using my best estimation after tonight's results.

--LIKELY IN--

VCU

KANSAS ST.

STANFORD

PITTSBURGH

COLORADO

--SAFE FOR NOW--

GEORGE WASHINGTON

SMU

ARIZONA ST.

BAYLOR

CALIFORNIA

XAVIER

ST. JOSEPH'S

--ON THE FENCE--

OREGON

OKLAHOMA ST.

MINNESOTA

BYU

RICHMOND

PROVIDENCE

--------------------------------------------------------

NEBRASKA

MISSOURI

ST. JOHN'S

--WORK TO DO--

DAYTON

SOUTHERN MISS

TENNESSEE

LOUISIANA TECH

GEORGETOWN

FLORIDA ST.

ARKANSAS

BOISE ST

LSU

[Blindcheck]

After the next couple of games, I think you will see teams like Iowa move down to a bubble team.

 

I can easily see them losing 3 of the next 4.....@ Indiana, purdue, @Michigan State and Illlinois.

 

If they have 4 home  losses in the Big Ten...I don't think they are a lock.

 

I think there may be some other teams that are featured as locks...that still have to take care of business to remain locks.

[HuskerActuary]

The guy who does the bracket for USA Today -- Shelby Mast -- is a pretty decent follow on Twitter (@bracketwag). Currently has us as the second team out and Minnesota as the last team in (Oregon in between us). I can live with that personally. I'm not sure if he is updating brackets daily yet, but he says a Xavier loss to St. John's tonight could get the Johnnies past us and in the bracket with XU out and that Minnesota would need a win against Iowa to stay in the bracket. 

Tweet this morning from him:

 

I'm thinking @HuskerHoops fans will like my bracket today. Huskers IN!!! Missouri OUT!!!

[The Polish Rifle]

 

The guy who does the bracket for USA Today -- Shelby Mast -- is a pretty decent follow on Twitter (@bracketwag). Currently has us as the second team out and Minnesota as the last team in (Oregon in between us). I can live with that personally. I'm not sure if he is updating brackets daily yet, but he says a Xavier loss to St. John's tonight could get the Johnnies past us and in the bracket with XU out and that Minnesota would need a win against Iowa to stay in the bracket. 

Tweet this morning from him:

 

I'm thinking @HuskerHoops fans will like my bracket today. Huskers IN!!! Missouri OUT!!!

 

Yeah, Minnesota getting in over us would drive me absolutely crazy given conf record and head to head. 

[lanigan123]

I believe Matrix has us 3rd out now. I think a win tonight would likely push us in. Jmo.

[hhctony]

 

The guy who does the bracket for USA Today -- Shelby Mast -- is a pretty decent follow on Twitter (@bracketwag). Currently has us as the second team out and Minnesota as the last team in (Oregon in between us). I can live with that personally. I'm not sure if he is updating brackets daily yet, but he says a Xavier loss to St. John's tonight could get the Johnnies past us and in the bracket with XU out and that Minnesota would need a win against Iowa to stay in the bracket. 

Tweet this morning from him:

 

I'm thinking @HuskerHoops fans will like my bracket today. Huskers IN!!! Missouri OUT!!!

 

 

And then out tomorrow if we lose tonight. The fine line that is the bubble. Welcome to late February.

[huskerbaseball13]

 

 

The guy who does the bracket for USA Today -- Shelby Mast -- is a pretty decent follow on Twitter (@bracketwag). Currently has us as the second team out and Minnesota as the last team in (Oregon in between us). I can live with that personally. I'm not sure if he is updating brackets daily yet, but he says a Xavier loss to St. John's tonight could get the Johnnies past us and in the bracket with XU out and that Minnesota would need a win against Iowa to stay in the bracket. 

Tweet this morning from him:

 

I'm thinking @HuskerHoops fans will like my bracket today. Huskers IN!!! Missouri OUT!!!

 

 

And then out tomorrow if we lose tonight. The fine line that is the bubble. Welcome to late February.

 

 

 

Yep.  Tonight will be the difference of being "in" in most projections....vs being "out."  Lets get that W. 

[HolyBobpilgrimage]

What is the best conference record of a Big ten team to be left out of the tournament in the last ten years?

 

I think Nebraska went 10-6 in the Big 12 one year and it was the first time a Big 12 team was left out winning 10 games.

I think we'll need at least 3 of the next four to avoid this...but I'd rest easier if we swept, since that wiscy win would be a boost, and we'd get some of those missing road wins...let's sweep!

[KZRider]

If standings remain the same -- with the Huskers ahead of MN in the B1G standings -- and similar degree of success in B1G tournament, would the selection committee take MN without taking Huskers?

[TomEadesSucks]

If standings remain the same -- with the Huskers ahead of MN in the B1G standings -- and similar degree of success in B1G tournament, would the selection committee take MN without taking Huskers?

Possible, but it's not Neb vs Minnesota, is Neb vs the rest of the bubble teams. Dave will disagree, but conference affiliation has no influence on how teams are picked.

[huskerbaseball13]

Jerry Palm has Arkansas in over NU....would love to see him argue that one. 

[Cookie Belcher]

Jerry Palm has Arkansas in over NU....would love to see him argue that one.

Eeesh.

[TomEadesSucks]

Jerry Palm has Arkansas in over NU....would love to see him argue that one. 

Too much Ny-quil.

[GoBigRed]

Jerry Palm has Arkansas in over NU....would love to see him argue that one.

Had to find some SEC team to throw in there since Tennessee, Missouri, LSU and Ole Miss can't win. And I'm not joking. That league deserves two teams: Florida and Kentucky. Do people realize the bottom teams in that league are so low in the RPI that they'd be the worst losses on our schedule by far...there are some horrible basketball teams and yet 7-7 and 7-8 teams are on the bubble

[nuled2dance]

Why? Is he on drugs?

[bigred4]

If standings remain the same -- with the Huskers ahead of MN in the B1G standings -- and similar degree of success in B1G tournament, would the selection committee take MN without taking Huskers?

Possible, but it's not Neb vs Minnesota, is Neb vs the rest of the bubble teams. Dave will disagree, but conference affiliation has no influence on how teams are picked.

Not Dave but if conference affiliation doesn't matter then why isn't every team given a code for the selection committee that doesn't have their name and just has their RPI, record, etc.?

[nebrasketball10]

 

 

If standings remain the same -- with the Huskers ahead of MN in the B1G standings -- and similar degree of success in B1G tournament, would the selection committee take MN without taking Huskers?

Possible, but it's not Neb vs Minnesota, is Neb vs the rest of the bubble teams. Dave will disagree, but conference affiliation has no influence on how teams are picked.

Not Dave but if conference affiliation doesn't matter then why isn't every team given a code for the selection committee that doesn't have their name and just has their RPI, record, etc.?

 

 

It would be pretty obvious who you were looking at when reviewing their schedules...

[hhcdave]

Another question is why do they break down number of teams from each league?

 

I will go to my grave believing it matters 10%.

 

And I have an impossible time imagining BOTH Nebraska and Minnesota getting in for the Big 10 getting 7, even if they both deserve it.

[GoBigRed]

Another question is why do they break down number of teams from each league?

 

I will go to my grave believing it matters 10%.

 

And I have an impossible time imagining BOTH Nebraska and Minnesota getting in for the Big 10 getting 7, even if they both deserve it. Bi

 

The Big 12 is projected to get 7 of their 10 teams in. 7/12 Big Ten teams doesn't seem that bad considering we're right behind the Big 12 in RPI.