Bubble Watch

[Shuttlesworth]

SATURDAY 3/8

Notes:

-Road teams in 2013-14 are only winning at a 38% clip in intra-conference play. Nine bubble teams take to the road on Saturday.

-Georgetown looks to play itself back into the picture coming off a win vs. Creighton. A win vs. Villanova would do it.

-Stanford has fallen onto the bubble after three straight losses. A loss vs. Utah to close the regular season and they'll likely have to make their case in the PAC 12 Tourney.

-Cal (See Stanford, substitute Colorado for Utah).

-Like Stanford and Cal, Pitt has also fallen onto the bubble. Losers in four of their last five, they face a tough road game at Clemson.

-Bubble contenders Tennessee and Missouri face off in a matchup that is considered a must-win for both. Should be fun.

-After six straight wins, Arkansas has played themselves into very good position. All that work could potentially be erased with a loss to Alabama.

-Dayton has played their way into strong consideration after back-to-back wins vs. UMass and Saint Louis. But with losses to Illinois St. (RPI 135), USC (RPI 165), and Rhode Island (RPI 149), they certainly can't afford a slip-up here.

-As much as we'd all like to see Creighton's Seniors lose on Senior Day, wish for it another year. Instead, celebrate the fact that this is the last game Doug McDermott will ever play in the State of Nebraska.

-Happy Trails! On this date two years ago, Doc Sadler coached in his last game at Nebraska. Go beat OSU, Coach.

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11 AM

MARQUETTE vs. St. John's (FS1)

MEMPHIS vs. SMU (ESPN 2)

12:30 PM

KANSAS ST. vs Baylor (ESPN 3)

1 PM

VILLANOVA vs Georgetown (FS1)

IOWA ST. vs Oklahoma State (ESPN)

1:30 PM

UTAH at Stanford (Pac12)

3 PM

ARIZONA at Oregon (CBS)

CLEMSON vs. Pittsburgh (ESPN 3)

Tennessee vs. Missouri (ESPN)

ALABAMA vs. Arkansas (ESPN 3)

5:30 PM

COLORADO at California (Pac12)

6 PM

RICHMOND at Dayton

7 PM

CREIGHTON vs. Providence (CBS Sports Network)

[BigAppleBucky]

For very similar reasons, Green Bay is also extremely unlikely to get in.  Although in my opinion, they actually have a better current resume than NDSU and have the potential for their conference tourney loss to not be crippling (Cleveland State has an RPI of 82).

 

Green Bay beat Virginia and played Wisconsin very tough. But they're something like 1-2 or 1-3 against top 50 teams, so you may be right. 

[royalfan]

Even though North Dakota State is currently projected as a 12 seed, I can't imagine how they would get an at-large bid.  No one else in the Summit has an RPI in the top 125, so any NDSU loss in their conference tourney would be considered "bad." And currently, they have 0 top 50 wins compared to 3 bad losses.  0 to 4 is a terrible ratio.

 

For very similar reasons, Green Bay is also extremely unlikely to get in.  Although in my opinion, they actually have a better current resume than NDSU and have the potential for their conference tourney loss to not be crippling (Cleveland State has an RPI of 82).

 

I've read (don't remember where, sorry) that the selection committee regretted selecting Middle Tennessee State last year, which really hurts Stephen F. Austin's chances of getting in.  They played only one team in the top 100 all year, and they lost that game.  Very similar resume to last year's MTSU squad, and the committee isn't going to make the same mistake two years in a row.

This is what I think also.  But we are probably best off if they win anyway, just to be sure.  Like you said any loss would be considered pretty bad though. 

[RimRattler]

Missouri at Tennessee is interesting...

 

I heard an ESPN analyst say the winner makes the tournament, but that seems like an overreaction. Both of their resumes are really no better than ours. Tennessee has 2 top 50 wins, 4 bad losses, but a better RPI and SOS than us. Missouri has 2 top 50 wins, 2 bad losses, but a worse RPI and SOS than us.

 

I would say the loser should be eliminated and the winner remains on the bubble at best.

 

CBS has it Missouri, Nebraska, Tennessee

ESPN and BracketMatrix have it Tennessee, Nebraska, Missouri

 

I suppose if Missouri wins on the road it would give them much more hype than a Tennessee win at home. Really don't know who, if anyone, we should root for.

[nuled2dance]

St johns/Marquette great game

Nova up ten on gtown

[RimRattler]

St. John's win at Marquette unfortunate, but St. John's still has work to do to even get past us.

 

Villanova up 18 on Georgetown in 2nd half...very good for us.

 

Wichita State up 14 at the half...also very good for us.

 

Baylor up 7 late at KState. Can probably take Baylor off the bubble watch as they will get in. Big 12 looking like a 7-bid league.

[nuled2dance]

Okie state just blew a 16 point lead...getting late in ames

[nuled2dance]

I know we hate the jays but be nice to see providence get beat today with gtown

[doc1394]

Oklahoma state loses in OT

[nuled2dance]

Did Arkansas get off the bus at Alabama...they are down 20 to a bad bama team

[RimRattler]

Pittsburgh down 9 to Clemson, Missouri and Arkansas getting crushed...some bubble teams looking really bad today

[nuled2dance]

Yea ....how much do ugly losses come in to play? Is a loss a loss or would brutal showings this late really hurt? These aren't great teams they are getting crushed by

[uneblinstu]

Well, Bama beating Arkansas would be bad for the Razorbacks. Tide aren't very good.

[TomEadesSucks]

We might get off the last 4 in even with a loss tomorrow. But we're gonna win, so it's irrelevant.

[bball23]

So far pretty good day for us in terms of bubble teams. I also want some "lower" seeds to lose in case we win we maybe move upa  bit.

 

KSU lost and they are struggling and a low seed already.

SMU lost again...they will be interesting.

Okie State lost so that is good.

Wichita State wins which we need them to win tomorrow too

Stanford pulls out a win vs Utah by 1. Bummer there.

Nova kills GTown which is very good for us

Cincy beats Rutgers (RPI/SOS)

St. John's beats Marq by 1 (bummer here)

Miami beats WF (RPI/SOS)

Arkansas getting beat big at half

Mizz losing big

Oregon losing as of now

[nuled2dance]

Not bad at all

[HoiBall]

How much would Indiana beating Michigan on the road help us since we just beat them at home in the midst of a monster run?

[ajb5856]

Clemson got hosed. I can't believe they counted the game-tying bucket just because there was a discrepancy between the shot clock game clock and the main clock. That's the way I took it anyway and I thought the only clock that mattered was the one above the basket so they can compare to the backboard light.

[tcp]

How much would Indiana beating Michigan on the road help us since we just beat them at home in the midst of a monster run?

 

anything boosting UIs rpi is good for us since we swept them. With UM no danger of dropping into "bad loss" territory, we want Indy to win this game. We also want Iowa to lose to Illinois.

[Tallbaby21]

Also, Beavers.

[hhcscott]

Pac-12 Referees defeat Arizona to help Dana Altman back to the tourney.  Beautiful phantom out of bounds call at the end of the first half leading to a Duck 3. Even Doug Gottlieb got the call right and Doug hasn't been right since…oh, that's the first time...

[royalfan]

Providence getting blitzed helps. 

[TheKamdyMan]

Providence getting blitzed helps.

Still feel they get in. They should get one two wins in the tournament. That gives them 21 or 22 wins. Should be enough.

[nuled2dance]

We win tomorrow with everyone watching on sunday night we will he just fine.....iowa struggling still time for them though

[cjbowbros]

Illinois wins!!!! We may not even have to win tomorrow to get the 4 seed but we will anyway.