49r Posted October 16, 2022 Report Posted October 16, 2022 This season's Pomeroy rankings are out, and I'll do a full update as soon as I get the time. But I will leave you with this one spoiler, we aren't starting off last in the Big Ten. (insert Arrested Development "Don't Buy Bluth" clip here). Stay tuned folks and hold on to your shorts. A quick scan of the upcoming schedule is enough to give me heartburn. For now, enjoy a little relaxing music. Quote
Dead Dog Alley Posted October 16, 2022 Report Posted October 16, 2022 Assuming they end up playing Siena and Seton Hall: 12 @Indiana 22 @Creighton 23 Iowa 23 @Iowa 25 Purdue 25 @Purdue 26 @Michigan 28 n Oklahoma 31 @Michigan State 31 Michigan State 32 Ohio State 33 Illinois 33 @Illinois 37 @St. John's 46 @Penn State 46 Penn State 48 n Seton Hall 50 @Rutgers 55 Wisconsin 56 @Maryland 56 Maryland 70 Northwestern 74 Boston College 77 @Kansas State 109 @Minnesota 109 Minnesota 227 Queens University 244 n Siena 330 Omaha 351 Maine 361 Arkansas-Pine Bluff Quote
hhcmatt Posted October 16, 2022 Report Posted October 16, 2022 Indiana ranked on top of the B1G woah! Quote
Chuck Taylor Posted October 17, 2022 Report Posted October 17, 2022 KenPom's algos don't take into account the change in defensive philosophy we're expecting. A true commitment to defense, with the talent on this roster, is going to result in an AdjD better than the 107th predicted here. I won't argue with the KenPom offensive rating of 115 based on the current talent, except to say an improved defense might lead to more easier baskets. Not saying we're suddenly a top 25 team, just that we can be better than 108th. HuscurAdam, Norm Peterson and millerhusker 1 2 Quote
49r Posted October 17, 2022 Author Report Posted October 17, 2022 Not a lot to say this morning. We've been down this road before and kinda already know where it goes so for now the less said the better. So in the interest of brevity...Here we go with the first edition of the KenPom rankings 2022-23! KenPom rankings as of 10-17-22======================= B1G (0-0):12. Indiana23. Iowa25. Purdue26. Michigan31. Michigan State32. Ohio State33. Illinois46. Penn State50. Rutgers55. Wisconsin56. Maryland70. Northwestern108. Nebraska109. Minnesota Non-Conference (0-0):351. Maine330. Omaha---Gavitt Games---37. @St. John's361. Arkansas Pine-Bluff---ESPN Events Invitational---28. Oklahoma34/48. Memphis/Seton Hall49/58/65/244. Ole Miss/Stanford/Florida State/Siena---B1G/ACC Challenge---74. Boston College22. @Creighton77. Kansas State---Battle In The Vault---227. Queens University of Charlotte Quote
49r Posted October 17, 2022 Author Report Posted October 17, 2022 Here is a look at the schedule with projected win totals: 2023 Schedule Game Plan | Opponent Tracker Date Rk Opponent Result Location Record Conf Mon Nov 7 351 Maine W, 84-61 74 98% Home Thu Nov 10 330 Nebraska Omaha W, 85-67 75 95% Home Thu Nov 17 37 St. John's L, 83-71 78 15% Away Sun Nov 20 361 Arkansas Pine Bluff W, 89-62 74 99% Home Thu Nov 24 28 Oklahoma L, 77-67 73 20% Neutral Wed Nov 30 74 Boston College L, 73-72 73 49% Home Sun Dec 4 22 Creighton L, 81-68 75 12% Away Wed Dec 7 12 Indiana L, 81-65 74 8% Away × Sat Dec 10 25 Purdue L, 78-72 73 29% Home × Sat Dec 17 77 Kansas St. L, 76-70 74 27% Away Tue Dec 20 227 Queens W, 84-72 75 86% Home Thu Dec 29 23 Iowa L, 82-75 76 27% Home × Tue Jan 3 31 Michigan St. L, 81-69 75 14% Away × Sat Jan 7 109 Minnesota L, 75-72 73 39% Away × Tue Jan 10 33 Illinois L, 76-71 75 32% Home × Fri Jan 13 25 Purdue L, 81-68 73 12% Away × Wed Jan 18 32 Ohio St. L, 77-71 73 32% Home × Sat Jan 21 46 Penn St. L, 77-67 71 19% Away × Tue Jan 24 70 Northwestern L, 73-72 74 47% Home × Sat Jan 28 56 Maryland L, 79-70 75 20% Away × Tue Jan 31 33 Illinois L, 80-68 75 14% Away × Sun Feb 5 46 Penn St. L, 73-70 71 38% Home × Wed Feb 8 26 Michigan L, 82-69 74 12% Away × Sat Feb 11 55 Wisconsin L, 74-71 73 40% Home × Tue Feb 14 50 Rutgers L, 75-66 73 19% Away × Sun Feb 19 56 Maryland L, 75-73 75 41% Home × Sat Feb 25 109 Minnesota W, 75-72 73 62% Home × Tue Feb 28 31 Michigan St. L, 78-72 75 31% Home × Sun Mar 5 23 Iowa L, 85-72 76 12% Away × Projected record: 10-19 5-15 Chance of unbeaten record: 0.00% 0.00% Chance of winless record: 0.00% 0.1% Quote
49r Posted October 17, 2022 Author Report Posted October 17, 2022 Here is Torvik, if you are into that sort of thing: 2023 T-Rank College Basketball Projections RK TEAM CONF ADJOE ADJDE BARTHAG PROJ. REC RET MINS RPMS TALENT EXP. TRANS. 11 Indiana B10 111.123 91.712 .9004 22-9 13-7 78.1% 81.6% 79.8 2.16 0 15 Illinois B10 112.114 93.531 .8897 22-8 13-7 16.5% 15.0% 82.8 1.41 181 24 Michigan St. B10 111.719 94.647 .8714 18-11 12-8 54.1% 55.2% 73 1.86 0 31 Iowa B10 113.18 96.678 .8590 20-10 12-8 62.0% 56.8% 52.2 1.94 0 32 Purdue B10 112.610 96.271 .8589 19-10 12-8 39.5% 35.9% 57.4 1.54 36 38 Michigan B10 111.421 95.965 .8481 19-11 11-9 27.5% 30.5% 87.9 1.57 99 50 Maryland B10 108.944 95.660 .8167 18-12 11-9 46.8% 42.5% 50.7 2.38 154 56 Rutgers B10 104.8118 92.822 .8022 19-12 10-10 63.5% 59.7% 47.3 2.34 41 62 Wisconsin B10 104.4124 93.125 .7896 16-13 10-10 52.3% 45.0% 48.5 1.64 73 67 Ohio St. B10 109.341 98.4109 .7686 15-14 9-11 23.0% 15.0% 54.6 2.15 185 82 Penn St. B10 104.8119 96.067 .7324 15-14 8-12 55.2% 52.2% 34.5 2.34 138 92 Nebraska B10 106.384 98.7114 .7016 13-16 7-13 38.2% 28.8% 32.8 2.27 223 98 Northwestern B10 102.2178 95.355 .6921 14-16 7-13 59.6% 57.2% 48.6 2.2 23 134 Minnesota B10 104.6121 100.7154 .6071 13-17 5-15 20.9% 23.6% 37.2 2.07 208 Compiled by Bart Torvik from sacred data and secret formulas. DATE OPPONENT RESULT/LINE RECORD WAB - Mon 11-07 H 313 (Ⅳ) Maine -18.4, 88-69 94% .04 Thu 11-10 H 336 (Ⅳ) Nebraska Omaha -21.2, 90-69 96% .03 Thu 11-17 A 47 (Ⅳ) St. John's +9.0, 86-77 22% .56 Sun 11-20 H 344 (Ⅳ) Arkansas Pine Bluff -22.8, 91-68 97% .02 Thu 11-24 N 33 (Ⅳ) Oklahoma +6.1, 78-72 28% .55 Wed 11-30 H 76 (Ⅲ) Boston College -2.4, 76-73 59% .31 Sun 12-04 A 23 (Ⅱ) Creighton +10.8, 80-69 16% .66 Wed 12-07 A 11 (I-A) • Indiana +12.9, 83-70 13% .72 Sat 12-10 H 32 (Ⅱ) • Purdue +2.4, 78-75 41% .48 Sat 12-17 N 45 (I) Kansas St. +4.9, 79-74 33% .50 Tue 12-20 H 236 (Ⅳ) Queens -14.0, 88-74 88% .08 Thu 12-29 H 31 (Ⅱ) • Iowa +2.5, 82-79 41% .48 Tue 1-03 A 24 (I-A) • Michigan St. +11.1, 83-72 16% .65 Sat 1-07 A 134 (I-A) • Minnesota +1.2, 77-76 46% .30 Tue 1-10 H 15 (I-A) • Illinois +4.2, 78-74 35% .55 Fri 1-13 A 32 (I-A) • Purdue +10.3, 82-72 18% .63 Wed 1-18 H 67 (Ⅱ) • Ohio St. -1.7, 76-75 56% .34 Sat 1-21 A 82 (I) • Penn St. +4.8, 76-71 32% .43 Tue 1-24 H 98 (Ⅲ) • Northwestern -4.2, 76-72 66% .26 Sat 1-28 A 50 (Ⅱ) • Maryland +8.3, 81-73 22% .55 Tue 1-31 A 15 (I) • Illinois +12.2, 83-70 14% .69 Sun 2-05 H 82 (Ⅲ) • Penn St. -2.9, 75-72 61% .29 Wed 2-08 A 38 (Ⅱ) • Michigan +9.7, 81-72 19% .61 Sat 2-11 H 62 (Ⅱ) • Wisconsin -0.8, 73-72 53% .36 Tue 2-14 A 56 (I) • Rutgers +7.1, 75-68 24% .53 Sun 2-19 H 50 (Ⅱ) • Maryland +0.3, 78-77 49% .40 Sat 2-25 H 134 (Ⅲ) • Minnesota -6.8, 80-73 73% .19 Tue 2-28 H 24 (I) • Michigan St. +3.1, 79-76 39% .51 Sun 3-05 A 31 (I-A) • Iowa +10.9, 86-75 18% .63 Projected Record: 13-16 (7-13) Quote
jimmykc Posted October 17, 2022 Report Posted October 17, 2022 So KenPom thinks we will go for two months without a victory. I'll take the over for that stretch (which includes Minnesota, Northwestern and Penn State twice). HuscurAdam 1 Quote
Handy Johnson Posted October 17, 2022 Report Posted October 17, 2022 How can Penn St. be in the Top 50? Don’t they know we made them CRY last year on our scorched earth road rampage to end the season…??? Quote
Dead Dog Alley Posted October 17, 2022 Report Posted October 17, 2022 3 hours ago, 49r said: Here is Torvik, if you are into that sort of thing: I got myself Torviked one night; it wasn't pleasant. Quote
hskr4life Posted October 17, 2022 Report Posted October 17, 2022 Now I know the odds are low… but if we have a 0.1% chance of going winless, I feel we should also have a 0.1% chance of going undefeated. I mean there’s always a chance until you win/lose your first game. Quote
49r Posted October 17, 2022 Author Report Posted October 17, 2022 59 minutes ago, hskr4life said: Now I know the odds are low… but if we have a 0.1% chance of going winless, I feel we should also have a 0.1% chance of going undefeated. I mean there’s always a chance until you win/lose your first game. Those are the conference only numbers. The overall percentages are 0.0% undefeated and 0.0% winless. hskr4life 1 Quote
49r Posted October 17, 2022 Author Report Posted October 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Dead Dog Alley said: I got myself Torviked one night; it wasn't pleasant. Quote
HuskerActuary Posted October 18, 2022 Report Posted October 18, 2022 19 hours ago, jimmykc said: So KenPom thinks we will go for two months without a victory. I'll take the over for that stretch (which includes Minnesota, Northwestern and Penn State twice). That's not how odds work :) KenPom thinks we are underdogs in every game for two months straight, which is not the same as expecting zero wins over that two-month stretch. Quote
Norm Peterson Posted October 18, 2022 Report Posted October 18, 2022 I'm struggling here. Objectively, you look at our roster and our history and we have no world beaters on this team and I think they should be picking us no higher than 150 or so. And I think to myself, yeah, objectively, that's where you'd think we should be. AND I think we'll be better than that. But then they pick us at 108, and Torvik at 92 for goodness sake, and I'm thinking man they're acting like a bunch of Husker homers. Drinking the red Kool-Aid. I mean, that's kinda the ballpark where I think we'll be. But I'm assuming I've got a lot of red-color-glasses influence there. Of course I would think we'll be better than the 150ish that we should have been picked at. The thing I'm struggling with is why the hell do they think we'll be as good as I think we'll be? That almost never happens. Quote
49r Posted October 18, 2022 Author Report Posted October 18, 2022 The thing is I think that if we had Tim as coach with this roster, we're looking at a 60-70ish team. With Hoiberg, it wouldn't surprise me to see us dip into the 130's. Norm Peterson and cornfed24-7 2 Quote
Norm Peterson Posted October 18, 2022 Report Posted October 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, 49r said: The thing is I think that if we had Tim as coach with this roster, we're looking at a 60-70ish team. With Hoiberg, it wouldn't surprise me to see us dip into the 130's. Same. I have some hope that off-season personnel moves have made a big difference. Taking a decidedly wait-and-see approach. Swan88 1 Quote
Norm Peterson Posted October 24, 2022 Report Posted October 24, 2022 This Kenpom thing. It's not based on gut feeling or personal opinion, right? It's like somebody objectively crunching numbers and coming up with a system that weighs the stats that his research into those stats indicate matter. Right? For no particular reason, can anyone like @49r look up historically where the North Texas Mean Green has been ranked in Kenpom over the last 5-6 years? Just curious. Apropos of nothing in particular. Except Kenpom, obviously. Since this is a Kenpom thread and I want to keep things topical. Quote
Norm Peterson Posted October 24, 2022 Report Posted October 24, 2022 41 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said: This Kenpom thing. It's not based on gut feeling or personal opinion, right? It's like somebody objectively crunching numbers and coming up with a system that weighs the stats that his research into those stats indicate matter. Right? For no particular reason, can anyone like @49r look up historically where the North Texas Mean Green has been ranked in Kenpom over the last 5-6 years? Just curious. Apropos of nothing in particular. Except Kenpom, obviously. Since this is a Kenpom thread and I want to keep things topical. OK, I did my own digging on Kenpom's end-of-year standings. 2017 -- 320th 2018 -- 146th 2019 -- 158th 2020 -- 77th 2021 -- 72nd 2022 -- 57th 2023 -- projected 67th Wow. That's pretty consistent improvement over the years for the Mean Green. Interestingly, their current coach took over, well, the year AFTER they went 8-22 and finished 320th in the Kenpom rankings. So, his first season, they jumped from 320th to 146th. Their coach's name is Grant McCasland, in case anyone is interested. That's kind of neither-here-nor-there. The discussion is about Kenpom rankings. And, as an aside, I guess I would just say it would be cool if he could accomplish the same kind of trajectory at a bigger school in a major conference, like Nebraska for instance. Quote
49r Posted October 24, 2022 Author Report Posted October 24, 2022 Here's another pretty good one IMO @Norm Peterson Coaching Résumé for Jeff Linder Offense Defense Team Conf W-L AdjT AdjO AdjD eFG% TO% OR% FTR 2P% 3P% FT% 3PA% A% APL eFG% TO% OR% FTR 2P% 3P% Blk% 3PA% A% APL 2FP% 2023 64 Wyoming MWC 0-00-0 71.0239 107.048 94.788 0.01 100.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 200.01 0.01 100.01 200.01 100.01 100.01 0.01 100.01 100.01 0.01 0.01 2022 65 Wyoming 12 R0 MWC 25-913-5 66.1239 109.167 97.271 52.372 17.087 25.5267 37.133 54.431 32.9222 72.3153 41.889 43.4326 18.7295 47.151 15.7319 24.648 24.843 48.4124 30.126 5.6333 38.2204 42.223 17.6184 11.0269 2021 164 Wyoming MWC 14-117-9 69.0129 109.168 109.0301 53.742 16.031 22.9304 35.375 53.938 35.778 71.9141 48.89 54.1107 17.4188 52.9287 18.2208 27.8166 33.9236 54.4313 33.0128 5.4325 31.118 45.550 16.879 37.257 2020 75 Northern Colorado BSky 22-915-5 65.0320 110.245 100.1122 54.712 15.414 25.0274 25.3332 53.630 37.418 67.3293 45.128 48.5249 19.0334 48.5126 16.8296 24.028 24.926 50.2210 28.56 5.5329 23.51 33.31 17.6225 19.8186 2019 193 Northern Colorado BSky 21-1115-5 66.5236 102.6206 104.9178 52.978 18.4164 27.8198 34.8122 53.550 34.8148 69.8201 45.435 50.1240 18.2262 51.4203 18.6157 25.868 28.154 49.6147 36.8299 8.0229 31.28 45.035 17.3124 26.6120 2018 104 Northern Colorado BSky 26-1211-7 72.224 107.3129 100.894 53.865 16.869 25.4282 33.8163 54.140 35.5136 69.2265 39.6113 40.4344 16.465 48.867 17.4240 24.425 36.8252 48.7124 32.950 8.0236 24.21 37.61 16.643 9.3268 2017 283 Northern Colorado BSky 11-187-11 68.5160 96.6309 106.9216 51.0155 20.3293 27.4235 34.5201 50.9104 34.1215 59.4351 44.125 52.8158 17.4186 52.2242 18.2198 25.432 34.5163 52.0269 35.0171 6.1314 37.4217 47.656 16.425 19.5151 Quote
49r Posted October 24, 2022 Author Report Posted October 24, 2022 (edited) Linder seems like a decent coach for a team at the Power 5 level who may or may not have an opening at the end of this season to take a look at. FWIW, here's Wyoming's finishes in the years before Linder took over: #317 in 2019 #246 in 2020 Then Linder took over in the Covid season and played only 7 non-con games. Edited October 24, 2022 by 49r Quote
Norm Peterson Posted October 24, 2022 Report Posted October 24, 2022 So, @49r, just for shits and giggles, can you include North Texas and Wyoming in your weekly updates? I mean, just y'know for comparative purposes as we progress through the season. "Here's how a couple of other random schools just happen to be doing during this same season." That kind of thing. Quote
HuskerFever Posted October 24, 2022 Report Posted October 24, 2022 2 hours ago, Norm Peterson said: This Kenpom thing. It's not based on gut feeling or personal opinion, right? Also, lest we forget that Ken's computer thingies beat all of us in HHCC last season. Quote
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