Projected Rotation and Starting Lineup

[millerhusker]

Really didn't intend for that to be a bash Wilhelm post, although that's how it ended up coming across as I kept typing. I still have high hopes for him. 

[Art Vandalay]

1 hour ago, Jacob Padilla said:

 

He only played 10 games and took 39 total shots before he got hurt, which is way too small of a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions. He was also a true freshman. Like I said, he has to play a lot better than he did last year, but I don't think we got to see much of the kind of player Hoiberg thinks he can be. He was 3-6 on pick-and-pop 3s (and 0-for on every other kind of 3); again, too small of a sample size, but it's all we have. I watched all of his Mater Dei games that I could find on YouTube and he didn't actually take that many 3s for them compared to the way Hoiberg has raved about his shooting ability, which is why I thought it might take him a bit of time to grow into that shooting big role. Hopefully he got plenty of shots up this offseason.

 

Gary's a tough guy to figure out in terms of how he fits with this team offensively. Griesel and Walker are probably the team's best players, and they both do their best work inside of 15 feet, as do Gary and Keita. Perhaps his cutting is something thy can utilize while playing though Walker or Griesel in the middle of the floor, but I worry about teams just not guarding him on the perimeter and always having an extra body crowding the paint. Hoiberg has never quite managed to put a lineup out there that can consistently space the floor, which has made life very difficult for their best players. Breidenbach has the best chance of their forwards/centers at hitting shots and forcing defenses to defend him on the perimeter, though that certainly in't a given at this point.

 

Nebraska will probably have trouble guarding one-on-one at multiple spots in the lineup again this season no matter who they throw out there. Hopefully their team defense and commitment to playing hard on that end improves to make up for that. The added size and length helps there, but they're once again lacking foot speed at a lot of spots.

Nice write ups, thanks for sharing.

 

You think we will see some different defenses, like a match up or straight zone? I am hoping we do with the added length but limited quickness

[Jacob Padilla]

2 hours ago, Art Vandalay said:

Nice write ups, thanks for sharing.

 

You think we will see some different defenses, like a match up or straight zone? I am hoping we do with the added length but limited quickness

 

That seems to be the plan, at least to a certain degree, based on the things Hoiberg said after hiring Adam Howard. We'll have to wait until the games start to see how much and which zones they use. It's definitely a tactic worth considering with the current make-up of the roster, like you said. 

[4huskers]

 

 

[Crush78]

4 minutes ago, 4huskers said:

 

 

1st off the bench? Id guess Gary. 1st guard off the bench is probably the more intriguing question. Lloyd?

[busticket]

Interesting.  I very much want to see how Wilhelm looks…last year he looked like a freshman but played hard.  Hoping things have slowed down for him.  I also want to see if his shooting looks more like it was advertised.  Last year his shot was very uncomfortable.

[millerhusker]

13 minutes ago, Crush78 said:

1st off the bench? Id guess Gary. 1st guard off the bench is probably the more intriguing question. Lloyd?

My guess is Keisei to start the year. Hopefully Ramel is ready for that role, though. It is a bit odd we haven't heard anything about Lloyd from the coaches or players all preseason. Usually there are hype articles for all the newcomers, regardless of their recruiting ranking. Hoiberg held him out of the opening night event for "precautionary reasons". Maybe he will be our secret weapon...

[Huskerpapa]

Sort of sounded like Dawson is in the rotation.  

[Cowboy Kermit]

Sort of sounded like Dawson is in the rotation.  

I think Dawson is the only freshman with a solidified role to start the year.

[hhcmatt]

FWIW this is where we were at last year

 

 

[NUdiehard]

3 hours ago, Crush78 said:

1st off the bench? Id guess Gary. 1st guard off the bench is probably the more intriguing question. Lloyd?

 

Fred has some decisions to make on the rotation.  How does the fact that Bando is the backup PG affect his rotation and timing?  For instance, one would assume the first sub out is Bando so that he can get some rest before he is inserted back in at PG when Sam comes out.  This would suggest that the first sub must come in as a replacement 2-guard, unless Wilcher slides down to the SG spot.  If Bando is replaced with a 2-guard, then it could be any of Keisei, Lloyd or Lawrence.  If Wilcher slides down to SG, then Gary could come in, but that is not an ideal lineup with Gary, Wilhelm and Walker all in at the same time.

 

So much of this depends on how much Fred trusts Keisei and thinks he has improved.  If Keisei has improved, then he would be a nice compliment to sub in at the SG spot.  This would give 3-4 shooters on the floor with PG-Bando, SG-Keisei, SF-Wilcher, PF-Wilhelm.  But, that is not a great defensive or rebounding lineup, so there are tradeoffs.  It would be nice to see Keisei get some minutes in the rotation early in the season to see if he can find a role and take better shots and shoot a better percentage.  If he could get his confidence he could be an electric shooter off the bench.   Eventually we all hope it is Lloyd filling that spot because he has more length, is more versatile, and can play the SG but can also help run PG if Bando is struggling.  But as others have mentioned, there has been very little talk about Lloyd this preseason, so does this indicate he is not ready for rotation minutes yet?

 

Fred could also do an initial 2-person sub, taking out Bando and Wilhelm, and inserting Gary and either Lloyd or Keisei.  The decision between Wilhelm and Gary is probably close, so this would allow Gary to get in quick and bring some energy. 

 

If Dawson is in the rotation, then it seems he would sub in for Wilcher at SF, but it is going to be essential that he is on the court with other shooters or the offense could really stall and the paint would be clogged.

 

Still seems like Keita's minutes will be relatively limited, because it is hard to imagine him playing any position other than the 5, and that would only be minutes that Walker is off the floor because I don't see any reason to play Walker at the 4 when you have other options in Gary and WB unless those 2 really disappoint.

[Huskerpapa]

Here is a thought, if this team is unselfish as a whole, and if this team is deep, and if this team is going 100% at all times and not pacing themselves, then we may go beyond an eight man rotation; perhaps we are looking at a ten man rotation.  It may be something akin to group one playing 25 minutes a game and group two playing 15 minutes a game. 

I guess we will know more in the next few weeks.

[Jacob Padilla]

I asked Fred in Minneapolis about the rotation, and as part of his answer he said unprompted that Denim Dawson is a guy he hasn't talked about enough, saying he knows what he's going to get from him every single time (and the strengths he described certainly fall in line with the offseason talking points of defense, toughness, grit, etc.).

 

Then we get this line from Thursday's availability: "Then guys like Juwan, and guys like Blaise, Denim, off the bench who give us a size and physicality..." (Part of a long answer responding to a question about how things are looking on the court in terms of chemistry and adopting the defensive and rebounding mindset he's talked about.)

 

Maybe I'm reading too much into that, but it sounds like Dawson might actually be in the rotation to open the season. If those three (Gary, Keita, Dawson) play off the bench, then you're looking at maybe one rotation spot for the guard group of Tominaga, Lloyd, Lawrence and Jacobsen. 

[Art Vandalay]

On 10/21/2022 at 1:55 AM, Jacob Padilla said:

I asked Fred in Minneapolis about the rotation, and as part of his answer he said unprompted that Denim Dawson is a guy he hasn't talked about enough, saying he knows what he's going to get from him every single time (and the strengths he described certainly fall in line with the offseason talking points of defense, toughness, grit, etc.).

 

Then we get this line from Thursday's availability: "Then guys like Juwan, and guys like Blaise, Denim, off the bench who give us a size and physicality..." (Part of a long answer responding to a question about how things are looking on the court in terms of chemistry and adopting the defensive and rebounding mindset he's talked about.)

 

Maybe I'm reading too much into that, but it sounds like Dawson might actually be in the rotation to open the season. If those three (Gary, Keita, Dawson) play off the bench, then you're looking at maybe one rotation spot for the guard group of Tominaga, Lloyd, Lawrence and Jacobsen. 

Agree and think KT will get the first shot in the rotation 

[Jacob Padilla]

I tracked lineups through the first 35 minutes against Chadron State (the last 5 belonged to the deep bench, obviously). There were 14 different units used during those 35 minutes. Lot of experimentation.

 

Here are the groups the shared the court for at least 2 minutes of game time:

 

Starting five: 12:38, -5

Griesel-Tominaga-Dawson-Gary-Keita: 4:48, +3

Griesel-Bandoumel-Wilcher-Gary-Walker: 2:38, +2

Griesel-Tominaga-Bandoumel-Gary-Keita: 2:34, +5

Bandoumel-Tominaga-Wilcher-Gary-Walker: 2:23, +4

Griesel-Wilcher-Dawson-Gary-Keita: 2:22, +7

 

Wrote about some of the things I noticed in the second half of this: https://hailvarsity.com/football/padding-the-stats-on-trey-palmers-prowess-and-fred-hoibergs-rotation/

Edited October 27, 2022 by Jacob Padilla

[huskerbill85]

On 10/21/2022 at 12:55 AM, Jacob Padilla said:

I asked Fred in Minneapolis about the rotation, and as part of his answer he said unprompted that Denim Dawson is a guy he hasn't talked about enough, saying he knows what he's going to get from him every single time (and the strengths he described certainly fall in line with the offseason talking points of defense, toughness, grit, etc.).

 

Then we get this line from Thursday's availability: "Then guys like Juwan, and guys like Blaise, Denim, off the bench who give us a size and physicality..." (Part of a long answer responding to a question about how things are looking on the court in terms of chemistry and adopting the defensive and rebounding mindset he's talked about.)

 

Maybe I'm reading too much into that, but it sounds like Dawson might actually be in the rotation to open the season. If those three (Gary, Keita, Dawson) play off the bench, then you're looking at maybe one rotation spot for the guard group of Tominaga, Lloyd, Lawrence and Jacobsen. 

Hey I'm curious and this isn't meant to be snark did you randomly bump into him or do you work in college basketball in some capacity?

[aphilso1]

11 hours ago, huskerbill85 said:

Hey I'm curious and this isn't meant to be snark did you randomly bump into him or do you work in college basketball in some capacity?

 

https://hailvarsity.com/staff/

[basketballjones]

On 10/26/2022 at 11:35 PM, Jacob Padilla said:

Griesel-Wilcher-Dawson-Gary-Keita: 2:22, +7

"Live by the 3, die by the 3." -Fred Hoiberg