Nebraska Bubble Watch

[hskr4life]

27 minutes ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

Bottom line is we have 15 losses (soon to be 16, sadly, but realistically) and they have 13 with a better overall SOS and non con SOS. At some point you have to award winning. 

 

We need consistency.  “At some point you have to award winning” wasn’t the theme last year and shouldn’t be this year as well.  If they want quality wins, then fine.  Win the next 2-3 and we have plenty of quality wins.  We also have no Q3 or Q4 losses when I looked at the team sheet yesterday.

[Klas3131]

The only way NU is getting to the tourney is to win the Big Ten.  Even if they go to the final, it's not enough.  

[hhcmatt]

Couple of things about SOS

1.

 

2. Other SOS rankings

Bartovik: 13th overall

KenPom: 6th overall

 

[The Polish Rifle]

16 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

 

There was a very interesting conversation on either FS1 or ESPN where they basically said Non Con SOS was a crappy metric to look at.  It’s affected by how the lower tiered teams that you play do as much as the upper tiered.  We played a roady at Clemson which was a win and a neutral against Oklahoma State.  Another good example of anbad Non Con SOS but not a bad schedule is NCST.

 

Badically they were saying that playing a team who was a better “buy” game... when both games are for sure wins... shouldn’t have as big of a factor as it does currently.

Yep, I can see that. I was trying to look for things on our Team Sheet that stand out. 16-15 record against D1 schools, Non-Con SOS (193), 2-9 on the road, 2-12 against Quad 1,  KPI is at 65. We have very strong metrics, but the NCAA has plenty of ammo to keep us out as it stands. I just have a gut feeling even if we win 2 more in the tournament, the committee can still point at out 18-16 record, our NonCon SOS and our road record. If we somehow made the conf title and lost, I think we would have the most interesting bubble resume in tournament history.

[hhcmatt]

15 minutes ago, Klas3131 said:

The only way NU is getting to the tourney is to win the Big Ten.  Even if they go to the final, it's not enough.  

 

Q1 Wins over Maryland, Wisconsin and maybe Mich St and you're sitting at that magical 20 wins, you're resume stands up vs a lot of the other guys at the bottom and you've proven that you can win without all those missing players.  It's pretty academic because winning these next 3 games seems very improbable 

[OmahaHusker]

1 hour ago, avfan2121 said:

Unless you are a 22 win Nebrasketball team...I'm not arguing for us to be in now. Just contemplating what 2 wins mean. If Creighton won today and lost tomorrow they would be in the conversation, if not in for some people. If Nebraska won 2 more games, they would have the same number of overall and Q1 wins and should probably be in the conversation.

 

39 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

 

We need consistency.  “At some point you have to award winning” wasn’t the theme last year and shouldn’t be this year as well.  If they want quality wins, then fine.  Win the next 2-3 and we have plenty of quality wins.  We also have no Q3 or Q4 losses when I looked at the team sheet yesterday.

 

If we win two more games I absolutely believe we should at least be in the conversation. I'm only saying a 16 loss team has never made the tournament. That's the main reason I think we're not being talked about.

Edited March 14, 2019 by OmahaHusker

[AuroranHusker]

9 minutes ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

 

If we win two more games I absolutely believe we should at least be in the conversation. I'm only saying a 16 loss team has never made the tournament. That's the main reason I think we're not being talked about.

 

And, of course, the commentators will say that Nebraska's 6-14 in the B1G makes the NCAA "bunk"... even though we all know that's not a criterion. It is a discussion point, and that would be exploited. Better win the whole darn thing, Nebrasketball. Anything short of that is an N.I.T. appearance, in my opinion...

 

 

Edited March 14, 2019 by AuroranHusker

[OmahaHusker]

14 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

 

Q1 Wins over Maryland, Wisconsin and maybe Mich St and you're sitting at that magical 20 wins, you're resume stands up vs a lot of the other guys at the bottom and you've proven that you can win without all those missing players.  It's pretty academic because winning these next 3 games seems very improbable 

 

Hasn't it pretty much been like that all year? Especially after the Copeland injury? We would absolutely be in the convo, if not on the right side of the bubble, if we would've just snagged a couple more wins here and there during the regular season. But it all just felt improbable. 

[hhcmatt]

1 minute ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

Hasn't it pretty much been like that all year? Especially after the Copeland injury? We would absolutely be in the convo, if not on the right side of the bubble, if we would've just snagged a couple more wins here and there during the regular season. But it all just felt improbable. 

 

Our tourney chances have been Schrödinger's cat since Copeland went down: simultaneously dead and alive 

[AuroranHusker]

20 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

 

Q1 Wins over Maryland, Wisconsin and maybe Mich St and you're sitting at that magical 20 wins, you're resume stands up vs a lot of the other guys at the bottom and you've proven that you can win without all those missing players.  It's pretty academic because winning these next 3 games seems very improbable 

 

Winning one more is improbable, two more is near impossible. Three ain't happening... But it would be a fun weekend if NU could make the finale. 

[hhcmatt]

2 minutes ago, AuroranHusker said:

Winning one more is improbable, two more is near impossible. Three ain't happening... But it would be a fun weekend if NU could make the finale. 

 

Nothing is impossible until we lose

[HuskerFever]

9 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

Our tourney chances have been Schrödinger's cat since Copeland went down: simultaneously dead and alive 

 

Could somebody just open the box and check on the cat already!?

[AuroranHusker]

6 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

 

Nothing is impossible until we lose

 

That would be *near impossible.... which would be winning 3 in 3 days with NU's 7-man rotation and only 1 additional walk-on sub--on the entire roster--who's played 29 min (Costello). Trueblood has 88 min, which includes 52 min since he played 26 min in Sunday's game against Iowa and another 26 min against Rutgers on Weds.

Edited March 14, 2019 by AuroranHusker

[hskr4life]

43 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

Yep, I can see that. I was trying to look for things on our Team Sheet that stand out. 16-15 record against D1 schools, Non-Con SOS (193), 2-9 on the road, 2-12 against Quad 1,  KPI is at 65. We have very strong metrics, but the NCAA has plenty of ammo to keep us out as it stands. I just have a gut feeling even if we win 2 more in the tournament, the committee can still point at out 18-16 record, our NonCon SOS and our road record. If we somehow made the conf title and lost, I think we would have the most interesting bubble resume in tournament history.

 

Oh 100% we're not even close after last night.  I think we still need 20 wins as no 16 loss team has ever gotten an at large.  With that said, more generally, I think some are starting to see flaws with the Non-Con SOS debate.

[hskr4life]

33 minutes ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

 

If we win two more games I absolutely believe we should at least be in the conversation. I'm only saying a 16 loss team has never made the tournament. That's the main reason I think we're not being talked about.

 

100% agree.  Think we need the 20 win mark.  

[ladyhusker]

I'm also going to keep banging the Texas drum...unless they win their tournament, they'll be a 16-loss team that is still fully in the conversation if not actually considered in (per BracketMatrix, even as high as a 7-seed?!). I understand our resumes are very different, but it's also not like we're the ONLY team with this issue. On paper we actually don't stack up THAT poorly to other bubble teams, if we can pull out wins today and tomorrow.

[hskr4life]

Early UH-OH for all bubble teams as NCST is up on Virginia at the half.

[nustudent]

11 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Early UH-OH for all bubble teams as NCST is up on Virginia at the half.

Double whammy with NC St.   Clemson choking against them yesterday really hurt our bubble chances 

[The Polish Rifle]

 

[Fullbacksympathy]

 

15 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

 

 

I agree with this.  As strictly quantitative as the process was last year, we might as well get rid of all intangibles beyond metrics, because those intangibles aren't being used.  

 

If we beat Maryland today, Wisconsin is our NCAA play-in game.  Damn the optics.  Creighton and Indiana, for example, have comparable resumes to us except for the part where we beat the living piss out of both of them.  

Edited March 14, 2019 by LK1

[hskr4life]

7 minutes ago, LK1 said:

 

 

I agree with this.  As strictly quantitative as the process was last year, we might as well get rid of all intangibles beyond metrics, because those intangibles aren't being used.  

 

If we beat Maryland today, Wisconsin is our NCAA play-in game.  Damn the optics.  Creighton and Indiana, for example, have comparable resumes to us except for the part where we beat the living piss out of both of them.  

 

And one of them is about to go 0-1 in March while we sit at 1-0 (albeit a very weak 1-0)

[hskr4life]

24 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

 

 

Indiana- Nearly down 20

Ohio State- Nearly up 20

Baylor- Down 20

 

No other surprises so far today.  NCST is also down 20.  

[hhcmatt]

 

[hskr4life]

Creighton = Bubble Burst!

[HuskerFever]

Just now, hskr4life said:

Creighton = Bubble Burst!

 

There's an open spot at the table?