Honest question: True Freshmen vs. Redshirt Sophomores

[Norm Peterson]

I've noticed some recurring themes around here and I'd like to get some takes on some things.

 

First of all, I think most everyone agrees that we'll be a better team next year.  That seems to be a universally held opinion.  I can't recall anyone saying they expect us to be as bad or worse next year as we are this year.

 

HOWEVER, to the extent we lose probably our best current player and really our only bigs to graduation, the opinion that we'll be better only makes sense if we get significant contributions from players who aren't currently playing this year -- i.e., the three transfers sitting out and whatever recruits we bring in, which, for right now, is just the three guards.

 

The second recurring theme is far from unanimous but I've seen it pop up several times and that has been the ongoing discussion/debate over how much next year's true freshmen will be able to contribute.  Some expect at least one or two of the freshmen will make an impact or even start.  Others say the freshmen will be freshmen and not to expect significant contributions from them, much less expect any of them to start. 

 

Now, in order to reconcile two of those points of view -- that we'll be better next year but it won't be because of significant contributions from our incoming freshmen -- you'd have to believe that we will get substantial contributions from the three guys sitting out this year as transfers.  And I think that's probably true.  I think we will get significant contributions from those transfers.

 

But here's my question:  What advantage does a guy like Petteway -- who only averaged 13 minutes a game his own freshman season and has since changed programs and sat out a year -- have over guys like Fuller or Hawkins or Webster who've all been logging actual game minutes this past season?  What advantage over the freshmen does he have that makes him so much more likely to contribute substantially (start?) to an improved Husker team next year?  Is it just because Petteway's here in town and we have reports from practice about him?  And the other guys, all we have are short clips of video of them playing against high school kids?

 

If you think we'll be better next year but don't think it will be because our freshmen contributed signficantly, then what will account for our improvement?  Where's that improvement going to come from?

[FredsSlacks]

I've always said that I don't think we'll be any better next year unless we somehow get an impact big man in this class, and I do not believe Atewe would be an impact big man right away.

 

We may have more talent next year, but as of now we are going to be a very small team and have little experience.

[Norm Peterson]

I've always said that I don't think we'll be any better next year unless we somehow get an impact big man in this class, and I do not believe Atewe would be an impact big man right away.

 

We may have more talent next year, but as of now we are going to be a very small team and have little experience.

I think there's some wisdom to what you say there, Timmy.  Something's gotta give somewhere.  Either we have impact players coming on board or we shouldn't expect improvement.  We will be young.  We will be inexperienced.  We lose a lot off of this roster to graduation.  Probably somewhere around 80 minutes/game.  In order for us to improve, we not only have to make up for the guys who graduate but we have to elevate beyond what they provided.  In my mind, that only happens if we get some major contributions from at least one or two of the freshmen.  And I agree with what you say that we still need to add an impact big.  That guy who can allow Pitchford to play the 4. 

[tcp]

If anything, we'll have more serviceable bodies. That means guys aren't grinding out 37 minutes a game. That should help a little.

A year practicing in a specific system has to lead to some improvement, so the redshirts should be a help. I think we can't help but be a bit better next season, although by how much is hard to tell. Losing Dylan and Ubel isn't a small deal.

 

But you can be better and still not have it reflect in your record, and that's a possibility next season. This conference is loaded with young talent right now, and other teams are going to be improving, too, or if they're degrading, not by all that much.

 

I think next season the best we're going to do is  maybe squeeze out an NIT bid if most things go really right, but that won't be easy. I'm trying to think of how many teams will take a step back next season, and I'm struggling to find them. All of the bottom teams minus Northwestern should be better. PSU is going to surprise some folks with Newbill AND Frazier playing together. Most of the top teams are young as well, so unless there are early departures, I actually see the top of the league getting better, too.

 

Illinois is the only team I think that loses too much than they're bringing in.

 

Next year is not going to be easy, either, even if we are better. I've said this before, but Miles is going to have t hit some gold ore for the following class before we can even think about challenging for the middle or higher of the conference.

[a0t0w0]

If anything, we'll have more serviceable bodies. That means guys aren't grinding out 37 minutes a game. That should help a little.

A year practicing in a specific system has to lead to some improvement, so the redshirts should be a help. I think we can't help but be a bit better next season, although by how much is hard to tell. Losing Dylan and Ubel isn't a small deal.

 

But you can be better and still not have it reflect in your record, and that's a possibility next season. This conference is loaded with young talent right now, and other teams are going to be improving, too, or if they're degrading, not by all that much.

 

I think next season the best we're going to do is  maybe squeeze out an NIT bid if most things go really right, but that won't be easy. I'm trying to think of how many teams will take a step back next season, and I'm struggling to find them. All of the bottom teams minus Northwestern should be better. PSU is going to surprise some folks with Newbill AND Frazier playing together. Most of the top teams are young as well, so unless there are early departures, I actually see the top of the league getting better, too.

 

Illinois is the only team I think that loses too much than they're bringing in.

 

Next year is not going to be easy, either, even if we are better. I've said this before, but Miles is going to have t hit some gold ore for the following class before we can even think about challenging for the middle or higher of the conference.

 

Well put.  I'll remain optimistic, but deep down I know it's going to be a long road.  It's hard for me to get excited about these transfers because their numbers don't show all that much.

[49r]

We've always got the Vooch!

[TheKamdyMan]

The biggest thing Pitchford, Biggs, and Petteway have is they are learning the offense on a daily basis already playing with the team.  They also will be 2 and 3 years older than the freshmen and have already have a few years to get older/wiser, find the weight room, and be able to adjust to a different lifestyle than one you had in high school.

[Norm Peterson]

I think the only thing that changes the analysis for how well we'll do next year is landing a center.  A big guy.  A big strong guy.  If we have to play small next year, it'll be like playing with a short bench this year and I think we'll pretty much struggle to finish any higher than we will this year.

 

That being said, I get that the transfers are older, more physically mature and have a year of practicing with Coach Miles.  Probably 80% of the advantage of experience that the transfers have over the freshmen, though, will disappear by the time of tipoff for the first game.  And then we'll be comparing talent and athleticism and who has it.  So, forget experience for the moment.  I mean, Gallegos' experience will count for more than Petteway's but we're not talking about Gallegos.  Or Shields, or Rivers.  We're comparing three guys who haven't played a minute in a Husker uni against three other guys who haven't played a minute in a Husker uni.

 

And when the games go live next fall, I think it'll all come down to who's more talented and athletic.  And I'm not going to bet against the freshmen.

[hhcmatt]

But here's my question:  What advantage does a guy like Petteway -- who only averaged 13 minutes a game his own freshman season and has since changed programs and sat out a year -

Two questions

• How many minutes a game did David Rivers last year?
• Who will have more practices under their belts in Nebraska's offense coming into next year: Petteway or all three freshmen combined?

[Red Rum]

Norm, how dare you make us discuss a topic that makes us think and use our brain things. We're supposed to be arguing over the definition of "playing your guts out" is and why switching to Nike will land us that prized recruit!

[atskooc]

I think the only thing that changes the analysis for how well we'll do next year is landing a center.  A big guy.  A big strong guy.  If we have to play small next year, it'll be like playing with a short bench this year and I think we'll pretty much struggle to finish any higher than we will this year.

 

That being said, I get that the transfers are older, more physically mature and have a year of practicing with Coach Miles.  Probably 80% of the advantage of experience that the transfers have over the freshmen, though, will disappear by the time of tipoff for the first game.  And then we'll be comparing talent and athleticism and who has it.  So, forget experience for the moment.  I mean, Gallegos' experience will count for more than Petteway's but we're not talking about Gallegos.  Or Shields, or Rivers.  We're comparing three guys who haven't played a minute in a Husker uni against three other guys who haven't played a minute in a Husker uni.

 

And when the games go live next fall, I think it'll all come down to who's more talented and athletic.  And I'm not going to bet against the freshmen.

Biggs has logged court time in the exhibition game, correct?  Did the other guys?

 

Experience in a Husker uni will be round-about the same, yes (aside from exhibition minutes), but to say we can't count the experience these guys have playing at this level (or on a juco all-american level) sort of stacks the question, doesn't it? 

[TheKamdyMan]

I think the only thing that changes the analysis for how well we'll do next year is landing a center.  A big guy.  A big strong guy.  If we have to play small next year, it'll be like playing with a short bench this year and I think we'll pretty much struggle to finish any higher than we will this year.

 

That being said, I get that the transfers are older, more physically mature and have a year of practicing with Coach Miles.  Probably 80% of the advantage of experience that the transfers have over the freshmen, though, will disappear by the time of tipoff for the first game.  And then we'll be comparing talent and athleticism and who has it.  So, forget experience for the moment.  I mean, Gallegos' experience will count for more than Petteway's but we're not talking about Gallegos.  Or Shields, or Rivers.  We're comparing three guys who haven't played a minute in a Husker uni against three other guys who haven't played a minute in a Husker uni.

 

And when the games go live next fall, I think it'll all come down to who's more talented and athletic.  And I'm not going to bet against the freshmen.

 

So youre saying guys that will have already been in college, playing against better competition in practice and games for the last 2-3 years, is equal to what the freshman will get in 3 months?  Thats really trying to stretch things there.  Even though it wasnt much, Petteway and Pitchford will be leaps and bounds ahead of the freshman when it comes to playing experiences when the first ball tips this fall.

[Norm Peterson]

But here's my question:  What advantage does a guy like Petteway -- who only averaged 13 minutes a game his own freshman season and has since changed programs and sat out a year -

Two questions

• How many minutes a game did David Rivers last year?
• Who will have more practices under their belts in Nebraska's offense coming into next year: Petteway or all three freshmen combined?

I rely on a version of the Pareto Principle to suggest that the first 20% of effort will yield 80% of the result and, hence, the remaining 20% of result will require the last 80% of effort.  That applies to picking up a coach's system in basketball just as much as it does to anything else.

 

When the freshmen arrive, they'll be behind the curve compared to the transfers, to be sure.  But they'll do a lot of catching up during the summer and in conditioning workouts in the fall.  They won't close the gap entirely but they will substantially.  They'll be pretty much up-to-speed once games go live.  At least enough to be competent.

 

And then it's down to talent vs. athleticism.

 

And the suggestion that a year head-start in Miles' system makes such a difference argues against nustudent's position that players don't change, no?  If they can't develop a cross-over dribble after 3 years of college, then doesn't it stand to reason that the older a player is, simply the closer to their ceiling that they are?  The closer they are to maxing out?

 

How does this experience issue factor in to any discussion of Petteway vs. Rivers or Shields?  Same length of time in Miles' program.  Same number of practices with Miles.  Are the returning starters at risk of being knocked out of the starting rotation?

[uneblinstu]

It's never going to be easy in the Big Ten, not that anyone has said it would be.  Everyone is trying to get better.  This conference will lose a lot this year.  There will be several players going to the NBA, I think.  Purdue and Iowa should be really good next year.  

 

NU should be more talented next year, top to bottom, but will be very thin at the 5, in all likelihood   I could very well see a season very similar to what Iowa or Purdue is facing right now for NU.  Iowa came out of the gates on fire but hit reality in conference play and will likely fall just short of the NCAA unless they find a way to beat Indiana this week or catch fire in Chicago (which they have the talent to do).  Purdue really struggled out of the gate and is just now starting to play well, but it might be too little too late to even get into the NIT.  They've got Michigan and Minnesota at home.  Possible they win them both, but not likely, but they're playing their best ball right now.  I could see either scenario for NU next year.  I don't see them being a 4 win in conference team next year.  They'll be better than that.  probably 3 to 4 wins better.

 

It's going to be really interesting to see how the (at least) six new guys mix into this roster.  There's little doubt the roster will be significantly more talented.  That *should* translate into more success, but it may not happen right away.  

[uneblinstu]

Also, we shouldn't discount Petteway's experience at Tech or Pitchford's at Florida.  Those are big boy conferences.

[jimmykc]

Let's cut to the chase. The better players will be the ones who get the most minutes.

[Norm Peterson]

I think the only thing that changes the analysis for how well we'll do next year is landing a center.  A big guy.  A big strong guy.  If we have to play small next year, it'll be like playing with a short bench this year and I think we'll pretty much struggle to finish any higher than we will this year.

 

That being said, I get that the transfers are older, more physically mature and have a year of practicing with Coach Miles.  Probably 80% of the advantage of experience that the transfers have over the freshmen, though, will disappear by the time of tipoff for the first game.  And then we'll be comparing talent and athleticism and who has it.  So, forget experience for the moment.  I mean, Gallegos' experience will count for more than Petteway's but we're not talking about Gallegos.  Or Shields, or Rivers.  We're comparing three guys who haven't played a minute in a Husker uni against three other guys who haven't played a minute in a Husker uni.

 

And when the games go live next fall, I think it'll all come down to who's more talented and athletic.  And I'm not going to bet against the freshmen.

 

So youre saying guys that will have already been in college, playing against better competition in practice and games for the last 2-3 years, is equal to what the freshman will get in 3 months?  Thats really trying to stretch things there.  Even though it wasnt much, Petteway and Pitchford will be leaps and bounds ahead of the freshman when it comes to playing experiences when the first ball tips this fall.

They'll be minus on experience.  I'm hoping they're ++ on talent and talent can beat out experience.  We've had other freshmen prove that over the years.

[TheKamdyMan]

I look at is more Norm that look at the normal progression for players at the college level.  On the average most players progress every year they play as they get biggers, stronger, smarter, and gain experience.  Thats where I see the biggest difference between the two groups you are trying to match up.  Outside of Nebraska we tend to see this regularly at all major colleges where kids tend to make a big leap from year one to year two and in the case of the transfers they get an extra year to make that transition and should see completely different players than the ones they were as freshmen.

[Norm Peterson]

No, Kamdy, I agree that over time they keep on improving.  But part of that is getting minutes. 

 

There have been discussions and I'd invite those who said this to chime in, but people have talked about the effects of sitting out a year.  There's going to be some rust to shake off, is the argument.

 

I'm just wondering -- and I'm honestly not convinced one way or the other, actually -- whether the marginal amount of extra experience of the transfers (specifically Petteway because Pitchford has a size advantage for playing time) would outway what I hope is a talent advantage of our incoming freshmen. 

 

And I don't propose to know the answer.  I'm curious what folks think.

[uneblinstu]

I'm just not convinced there will be a talent advantage (in a good way) for most of our freshman if what we've heard about the RS is true.

[hhcmatt]

Assume the talent level remains exactly the same.

We will be better next year solely on depth.

 

The original question of our freshmen vs our redshirts is a false dichotomy.

We could have the three redshirts starting and be a better team because of one freshman who is clearly the best player on the team while the other two get little playing time.  You could apply it the other way as well.

[hhcmatt]

I'm just not convinced there will be a talent advantage (in a good way) for most of our freshman if what we've heard about the RS is true.

 

I hate that this type of question inevitably generates this type of answer:  How one group of players we bring in is probably worse than another group of players we bring in.

[uneblinstu]

I'm just not convinced there will be a talent advantage (in a good way) for most of our freshman if what we've heard about the RS is true.

 

I hate that this type of question inevitably generates this type of answer:  How one group of players we bring in is probably worse than another group of players we bring in.

That's fair.  I think I was trying to say I think (hope) both groups are really, really good.

[hal9000]

I think experience is a little overrated, on the whole.  I think if you're talented enough, that surfaces to the top and factors in the most in terms of how good you are and how many minutes you'll play.

 

It could end up being that the guys sitting out this year are more talented/gifted overall than the three incoming freshman.  If the 3 transfers have a better year than the 3 freshman next year, will it be because they have more experience?  Maybe, but I'm inclined to think it would be because they are more talented ball players overall.

[TheKamdyMan]

I think experience is a little overrated, on the whole.  I think if you're talented enough, that surfaces to the top and factors in the most in terms of how good you are and how many minutes you'll play.

 

It could end up being that the guys sitting out this year are more talented/gifted overall than the three incoming freshman.  If the 3 transfers have a better year than the 3 freshman next year, will it be because they have more experience?  Maybe, but I'm inclined to think it would be because they are more talented ball players overall.

 

That can be true but thats usually in the case of outstanding players.  If Nebraska was recruiting players in the Rivals top 50 players I would say yes talent should win out but the players we are getting are similar to the same type of recruited player that Pitchford and Petteway were out of high school. I mean lets be honest Pitchford is the only player to garner a Florida offer out of the transfers or freshmen.  That is easily the best offer of the 5 players in question.  I hope that changes down the line but all in all I think the players recruited and those redshirted could all be lumped in the same level of talent.