Games Of Note/Bubble Watch 2024

[unl]

K state looks terrible. Kind of what I remember them looking like in the second half of our game. 

[hskr4life]

1 hour ago, unl said:

K state looks terrible. Kind of what I remember them looking like in the second half of our game. 

If we’re being honest, neither of these teams should be in the field.  This is some bad basketball.

[hskr4life]

Results (2/19/24): KSU and Texas both looked rough… but KSU was worse.  One win… one win and they likely jump back into the top 75.  Sigh.  It’ll come.  Every little bit counts with our non-con opponents.  With last nights results, we jumped up a spot in the NET, KPI, and SOR.

• Big 10 Games
  • NONE
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • SC St 75 @ Howard 68
  • Florida A&M 68 @ Alcorn St 79
  • Kansas State 56 @ Texas 62
• Other Bubble Games
  • None
     

Games To Watch (2/20/24): Need both B1G home teams today.  We’re Christmas colors for rooting interests.  Green and red baby!  Outside of that, big ole slate of bubble games today.  Tim could do us a real solid today but that’s a long shot.  In the double bubble games, Torvak says to root for Pittsburg, Villanova, and NCST.

• Big 10 Games
  • Iowa @ Michigan St
  • Maryland @ Wisconsin
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • St Louis @ Duquesne
• Other Bubble Games
  • Butler @ Villanova
  • Syracuse @ NCST
  • Arkansas @ Texas A&M
  • Baylor @ BYU
  • TCU @ Texas Tech
  • Pitt @ Wake Forest
  • SJSU @ Boise St
  • San Francisco @ St Mary’s
  • Wyoming @ Nevada

[hhcmatt]

6 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

SJSU @ Boise St

 

Torvik says you might want to root for SJSU but you'll be conflicted about it. Wild accuracy.

[HuskerActuary]

Texas A&M is losing to 12-13 Arkansas with 16 minutes left. That would be huuuuge for us.

[hskr4life]

I’ve got my eye on that Iowa MSU game.  Cannot let MSU slip to a Q2

[roscoe]

So for you guys that follow this metrics stuff...how many teams are Huskers competing against on the bubble? Bracketmatrix has Nebraska listed as last #10 seed. That puts us ahead of 6 teams for tournament and 8 other teams listed as "other at larges". But 6 of those 8 are listed in 10.2% of brackets or less. Simple math wants to tell me we are vying for field with 8 other teams. If that's the case I like our chances. And maybe 3 or 4 ahead of us. But how many teams can get back on bubble? Can teams like Iowa, Minnesota, Indiana, Rutgers & Maryland get into bubble conversation?

[hskr4life]

2 minutes ago, roscoe said:

So for you guys that follow this metrics stuff...how many teams are Huskers competing against on the bubble? Bracketmatrix has Nebraska listed as last #10 seed. That puts us ahead of 6 teams for tournament and 8 other teams listed as "other at larges". But 6 of those 8 are listed in 10.2% of brackets or less. Simple math wants to tell me we are vying for field with 8 other teams. If that's the case I like our chances. And maybe 3 or 4 ahead of us. But how many teams can get back on bubble? Can teams like Iowa, Minnesota, Indiana, Rutgers & Maryland get into bubble conversation?

I would say end of NEXT weekend should give us a better idea.  Still a little early to start locking some teams in and saying some teams need to win their conference.

[Norm Peterson]

28 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

I’ve got my eye on that Iowa MSU game.  Cannot let MSU slip to a Q2

 

Iowa has too far to go to jump us and MSU is too solid to drop that far, but ...

[hskr4life]

4 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Iowa has too far to go to jump us and MSU is too solid to drop that far, but ...

You’re right in that I don’t think MSU drops 10 spots in the NET tonight.  However, they still have OSU, Purdue, Northwestern, and Indiana left and there’s a lot of possible losses out there unfortunately.

[unl]

Ok so…fun night to watch here. 
 

Arkansas up on TAMU. Third loss in a row with two top 20 matchups next. If they lose 5 in a row that bubble is burst.

 

Villanova beat Butler at home. Probably good? Nova was on the outside looking in and butler was below us but in. 
 

Syracuse beat NC State on the road. Both have work to do but Syracuse lower so probably good or at least in different. 
 

Iowa won in East Lansing. Ok so…check the big ten standings

 

VCU lost by 22 to UMass. You never know? But that was not a bad outcome. 
 

BYU losing at home to Baylor. Their three road games are Kansas, Kansas State, and Iowa State…could Nebraska pass them?

Heck, what is Maryland upsets Wisconsin? We could be double bye by tomorrow night.

 

Also…all of this is just my dumb opinion and not fact based at all. So you can disagree with me.

[Norm Peterson]

I think Northwestern gets to 12 conference regular season wins. Their remaining 3 at home, they should win. The 2 on the road, they should lose. They'll finish 3rd to Purdue and Illinois, and slide in just ahead of Wisconsin. Wisconsin probably also finishes with 12 wins but Northwestern would have the head-to-head advantage over Wisconsin. Michigan St is still in the running for 12 wins. They have 2 home and 2 road. One road game is a probable L against Purdue but they could pick up a W at Indiana. If Michigan St just gets to 11 wins, then they're probably the 6th seed and we would be the 5th, in all likelihood.

 

I don't see a probable scenario where Iowa gets to 11 wins and it's possible for Minnesota but only if they beat us at home.

 

So, if I have this sized up correctly (I almost certainly have not) then we are probably looking at a 5th seed in the conference tournament and a first round bye. We'll take on the winner of Ohio State and Penn State, who'll have one day of rest. And then we're probably looking at Wisconsin the next day.

[hskr4life]

42 minutes ago, unl said:

Ok so…fun night to watch here. 
 

Arkansas up on TAMU. Third loss in a row with two top 20 matchups next. If they lose 5 in a row that bubble is burst.

 

Villanova beat Butler at home. Probably good? Nova was on the outside looking in and butler was below us but in. 
 

Syracuse beat NC State on the road. Both have work to do but Syracuse lower so probably good or at least in different. 
 

Iowa won in East Lansing. Ok so…check the big ten standings

 

VCU lost by 22 to UMass. You never know? But that was not a bad outcome. 
 

BYU losing at home to Baylor. Their three road games are Kansas, Kansas State, and Iowa State…could Nebraska pass them?

Heck, what is Maryland upsets Wisconsin? We could be double bye by tomorrow night.

 

Also…all of this is just my dumb opinion and not fact based at all. So you can disagree with me.

Tomorrow we’ll either be tied in the standings with Michigan St or Iowa.

 

That Arkansas win was huge.  Legit, all we need to do is take care of our business and we’ll be far away from the bubble.

[BugeaterZ]

4 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

 

So, if I have this sized up correctly (I almost certainly have not) then we are probably looking at a 5th seed in the conference tournament and a first round bye.

 

You have not, Huskers will have 12 or 13 wins 

[hhcmatt]

Pitt is RSVPing no to the tourney

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

1 hour ago, unl said:

Ok so…fun night to watch here. 
 

Arkansas up on TAMU. Third loss in a row with two top 20 matchups next. If they lose 5 in a row that bubble is burst.

 

Villanova beat Butler at home. Probably good? Nova was on the outside looking in and butler was below us but in. 
 

Syracuse beat NC State on the road. Both have work to do but Syracuse lower so probably good or at least in different. 
 

Iowa won in East Lansing. Ok so…check the big ten standings

 

VCU lost by 22 to UMass. You never know? But that was not a bad outcome. 
 

BYU losing at home to Baylor. Their three road games are Kansas, Kansas State, and Iowa State…could Nebraska pass them?

Heck, what is Maryland upsets Wisconsin? We could be double bye by tomorrow night.

 

Also…all of this is just my dumb opinion and not fact based at all. So you can disagree with me.

Conference standings really mean nothing to the committee. We should worry more about our resume than about where we finish in the league. The only benefit to the double bye from a resume perspective is we likely avoid an opportunity for a bad loss.

 

With that said it is not good for Michigan State and Wisconsin to lose. Those are our 2nd and 3rd best wins. They need to remain impressive, and absolutely need to remain in Q1.

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

19 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

Pitt is RSVPing no to the tourney

I didn’t really care who won this game. You could make an argument for either being better for us. What we probably didn’t want was a blowout that’s going to shoot the winner up in the metrics. Damn lol

[unl]

5 hours ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

Conference standings really mean nothing to the committee. We should worry more about our resume than about where we finish in the league. The only benefit to the double bye from a resume perspective is we likely avoid an opportunity for a bad loss.

 

With that said it is not good for Michigan State and Wisconsin to lose. Those are our 2nd and 3rd best wins. They need to remain impressive, and absolutely need to remain in Q1.

Or…we have 3 games to run a trophy and auto bid instead of 5. Which…would help ensure Nebraska is in the tournament with a nice seed. 

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

3 hours ago, unl said:

Or…we have 3 games to run a trophy and auto bid instead of 5. Which…would help ensure Nebraska is in the tournament with a nice seed. 

I admire the ambition. I’m not ready to go that far though. Priority 1 is getting into the dance, and enhancing our resume is the most likely way to do that.

 

Speaking of which, MSU is down to 24 in NET now. Starting to flirt with that Q1 cutline. Would be horrible if they drop out.

[hskr4life]

Results (2/20/24): MSU drops to #24 in the NET.  That’s a season series sweep of A&M for Arkansas.  A&M now how to travel to Tennessee. Outside of that, a pretty uneventful night on the bubble.

• Big 10 Games
  • Iowa 78 @ Michigan St 71
  • Maryland 70 @ Wisconsin 74
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • St Louis 66 @ Duquesne 81
• Other Bubble Games
  • Butler 62 @ Villanova 72
  • Syracuse 87 @ NCST 83
  • Arkansas 78 @ Texas A&M 71
  • Baylor 71 @ BYU 78
  • TCU 81 @ Texas Tech 82
  • Pitt 58 @ Wake Forest 91
  • SJSU 50 @ Boise St 82
  • San Francisco 66 @ St Mary’s 70
  • Wyoming 58 @ Nevada 76

 

Games To Watch (2/21/24): Obviously the biggest game of the day is in Bloomington. A win there puts our tourney odds at 80%(ish).  Miami fringe bubble, don’t want any home wins.  Florida is a ways away from being out but it doesn’t hurt to muddy the waters with teams ahead of us.  Cincinnati would probably need to win out if they lose tonight.  St John’s, Indiana St, and Drake are facing nail in coffin games where a loss means they need auto birth— maybe Memphis in here too.  South Florida is a sneaky bid stealer who has won 10 in a row.  Their metrics suck and their SOS is worse, they’ve got just 1 Q1 win (away at #75) but they’ve beaten both Memphis and FAU in conference. A few double bubble games where we probably want the home team.

• Big 10 Games
  • Illinois @ Penn St
  • Nebraska @ Indiana
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • None
• Other Bubble Games
  • Duke @ Miami
  • Florida @ Alabama
  • Oklahoma St @ Cincinnati
  • St John’s @ Georgetown
  • South Florida @ UTSA
  • Charlotte @ Memphis
  • Indiana St @ Valpo
  • Belmont @ Drake
  • Providence @ Xavier
  • Ole Miss @ Miss St
  • Colorado St @ New Mexico

[hskr4life]

A few days old, but I like this picture for where teams most likely stand.

[unl]

1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

A few days old, but I like this picture for where teams most likely stand.

So Texas A&M loses last night but stays in Last 4 in on lunardi’s daily breakdown. Losses won’t totally kill Nebraska or any team but wins certainly do not hurt. Regardless of his opinion or anyone else’s, a loss here and we’re still ok. But have got to win the two home games and one more somewhere. 
 

This team can beat anyone. That’s why from a conference tournament perspective I was saying let’s get a double bye if we can. Then you win two games and you’re in the championship game. I'll trust @cipsucks on this one and go with we win out.  

[hskr4life]

40 minutes ago, unl said:

So Texas A&M loses last night but stays in Last 4 in on lunardi’s daily breakdown. Losses won’t totally kill Nebraska or any team but wins certainly do not hurt. Regardless of his opinion or anyone else’s, a loss here and we’re still ok. But have got to win the two home games and one more somewhere. 
 

 

A&M is one of those weird medical cases that end up in a journal.  The reason they’re still in, I think, is because they’re 6-5 in Q1 games and 3-3 in Q1A games.  Wins over Tennessee and Iowa St.  Their big wins stack up against anyone.

 

The reason they are the last team in is because they are 2-4 in Q3… their loss to Arky last night bumped their road loss to Arky to a Q2 lol.  They were swept by Arkansas, lost to Vandy, and lost to LSU at home.  Their terrible losses are worse than most bubble teams.

 

They could just as easily beat Tennessee and South Carolina and go on to lose to Georgia, Miss St, and Ole Miss.  

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

6 minutes ago, unl said:

So Texas A&M loses last night but stays in Last 4 in on lunardi’s daily breakdown. Losses won’t totally kill Nebraska or any team but wins certainly do not hurt. Regardless of his opinion or anyone else’s, a loss here and we’re still ok. But have got to win the two home games and one more somewhere. 
 

This team can beat anyone. That’s why from a conference tournament perspective I was saying let’s get a double bye if we can. Then you win two games and you’re in the championship game. I'll trust @cipsucks on this one and go with we win out.  

Yeah, A&M dropped by only one spot and actually stayed in his Last 4 Byes. Pretty crazy for a Q3 loss.

 

Although his breakdown also says Ole Miss will drop out if they lose tonight on the road against a tournament team. That means a drop of at least 3 spots. No idea why they would get punished harder than A&M. So who knows what a loss tonight would do to us.

[Nebrasketball1979]

2 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

Yeah, A&M dropped by only one spot and actually stayed in his Last 4 Byes. Pretty crazy for a Q3 loss.

 

Although his breakdown also says Ole Miss will drop out if they lose tonight on the road against a tournament team. That means a drop of at least 3 spots. No idea why they would get punished harder than A&M. So who knows what a loss tonight would do to us.

My guess to what Lunardi is implying is that there is a decent gap between the teams in his "Last Four Byes" versus the teams in his "Last Four In" and "First Four Out".  In the unlikely event we lose tonight, I would be very surprised if we dropped out of the "Last Four Byes" in his next update based off my interpretation of what he is saying.