KenPom 2022-2023 KenPom Rankings Thread

[49r]

Minnesota is so bad our SOS dropped to 12th.  We were 4th or 5th or something just a week or so ago.

[Bugeaters1]

1 hour ago, 49r said:

Minnesota is so bad our SOS dropped to 12th.  We were 4th or 5th or something just a week or so ago.

But the NET went up 4, to 88

 

[Nebrasketball1979]

20 minutes ago, Bugeaters1 said:

But the NET went up 4, to 88

 

The NET updates once a day in the morning so the Minnesota and rest of today's games has not been factored in.  We likely drop to 91 tomorrow morning 

[OmahaHusker]

NET down to 93 after today 

[hskr4life]

5 hours ago, OmahaHusker said:

NET down to 93 after today 

We absolutely do not want to play Minny in the B1G tournament.  They are a NET killer.  

[The Polish Rifle]

7 hours ago, OmahaHusker said:

NET down to 93 after today 

Such a flawed/stupid metric.

[hhcmatt]

The thing about all these projections is that they assume we'll lose our last two games, win our first game in the tournament, and lose our second, finishing at 16-17.  Does anyone think that 16-17 gets us in the NIT?  Winning enough games to make a post season will take care of the NET enough.

[brfrad]

Looking at the NIT field from last year, we have plenty of work to do.

 

NET's from 80 - 95 last year with above .500 record

 

80. Rutgers (18-13) First Four NCAA tournament SOS 37 Q1 and Q2 wins 9

81. Clemson (17-16) No tournament SOS 76 Q1 and Q2 wins 4

82. Furman (21-12) No tournament SOS 173 Q1 and Q2 wins 2

85. Drake (22-10) CBI SOS 140 Q1 and Q2 wins 4

87. Wichita State (15-13) No tournament SOS 80 Q1 and Q2 wins 3

92. Grand Canyon (21-8) No tournament SOS 202 Q1 and Q2 wins 2

93. South Carolina (17-13) No tournament SOS 59 Q1 and Q2 wins 7

95. Middle Tennessee (21-10) CBI SOS 134 Q1 and Q2 wins 2

 

Us this year 

 

93. Nebraska (15-14) SOS 35 Q1 and Q2 wins 7

 

Must win Tuesday and probably 2 in Big 10 tournament

 

Have to win Big 10 tournament for NCAA tournament Need to avoid Wednesday game for a chance

 

Cheering for Michigan and Rutgers today.  

[HuskerFever]

36 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

Such a flawed/stupid metric.

 

Our loss margins are:

 

20, 13, 12, 16, 3, 15, 18, 16, 18, 11, 15, 19, 16, and 21.

 

That's what has hurt us the most. Then it's 3-10 Q1, 4-4 Q2, 1-0 Q3, 7-0 Q4 as well.

 

Straightforward logic: lose fewer games, beat good opponents, and don't get blown out.

[royalfan]

3 hours ago, hskr4life said:

We absolutely do not want to play Minny in the B1G tournament.  They are a NET killer.  

Was other things largely responsible for the drop.  

[The Polish Rifle]

9 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Our loss margins are:

 

20, 13, 12, 16, 3, 15, 18, 16, 18, 11, 15, 19, 16, and 21.

 

That's what has hurt us the most. Then it's 3-10 Q1, 4-4 Q2, 1-0 Q3, 7-0 Q4 as well.

 

Straightforward logic: lose fewer games, beat good opponents, and don't get blown out.

The way I understand it, scoring margin is not a factor. It’s offense and defense efficiency that’s killing us (so I guess in a way those blowout losses are hurting us). Computers see a good team in Ohio St, and a much more flawed team in Nebraska….to me that indicates their formula is broken. 

Edited February 26, 2023 by The Polish Rifle

[royalfan]

https://www.mwcconnection.com/platform/amp/2023/1/12/23552090/stats-corner-net-vs-kenpom-rankings

[royalfan]

It is very hard for a mediocre big ten team to move at this point in the season versus a team like Toledo. 
 

We have played 29 games now.  The net is going to largely mimic the pomeroy.  To move one raw EM point we are going to have to win by about 29 points more in a game than was the expectation of the metric.  1.84 Em points moves us from 92 to 82.  The coaching in our league is just too good to simply beat someone by 20 more than you should.  A decent Toledo, on the other hand, can much more easily do that to disinterested poorly coached teams late on the year.  They did yesterday and blew by us like we were in quicksand,  

[hhcmatt]

Ohio St isn't going to a post season regardless of their NET ranking which illustrates it's not an end all ranking system. We have a home win over the Buckeyes...put them back in the top 30, please and thank you

 

[The Polish Rifle]

The difference between results metrics and predictive metrics can be pretty crazy in some cases. The biggest outliers are: predictive loves Ohio St, Yales - result based hates them. Result based loves Nebraska and Vandy - predictive hates them. Coach Stackhouse ranted about it yesterday. Said it seems stupid that he can’t put kids that worked their butts off in practice all week in games late because it could hurt his teams NET ranking. Vandy is 5th in the SEC but their are 9 SEC teams ahead of them in the NET. 

[49r]

Ken sees us splitting the last two:

 

Date	Rk	Opponent		Result			Location	Record	Conf
Mon Nov 7	108	279	Maine	W, 79-66	70		Home	1-0
Thu Nov 10	114	322	Nebraska Omaha	W, 75-61	69		Home	2-0
Thu Nov 17	111	90	St. John's	L, 70-50	71		Away	2-1
Sun Nov 20	115	320	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W, 82-58	64		Home	3-1
Thu Nov 24	110	51	Oklahoma	L, 69-56	60		Neutral	3-2
Fri Nov 25	118	37	Memphis	L, 73-61	66		Neutral	3-3
Sun Nov 27	120	204	Florida St.	W, 75-58	71		Neutral	4-3
Wed Nov 30	111	169	Boston College	W, 88-67	63		Home	5-3
Sun Dec 4	95	14	Creighton	W, 63-53	71		Away	6-3
Wed Dec 7	83	20	Indiana	L, 81-65	72		Away	6-4	0-1
Sat Dec 10	81	6	Purdue	L, 65-62	66	OT	Home	6-5	0-2
Sat Dec 17	80	18	Kansas St.	L, 71-56	71		Semi-Away	6-6
Tue Dec 20	84	215	Queens	W, 75-65	73		Home	7-6
Thu Dec 29	89	45	Iowa	W, 66-50	66		Home	8-6	1-2
Tue Jan 3	82	28	Michigan St.	L, 74-56	64		Away	8-7	1-3
Sat Jan 7	84	221	Minnesota	W, 81-79	69	OT	Away	9-7	2-3
Tue Jan 10	84	26	Illinois	L, 76-50	67		Home	9-8	2-4
Fri Jan 13	92	6	Purdue	L, 73-55	61		Away	9-9	2-5
Wed Jan 18	94	71	Ohio St.	W, 63-60	72		Home	10-9	3-5
Sat Jan 21	93	49	Penn St.	L, 76-65	67		Away	10-10	3-6
Wed Jan 25	94	41	Northwestern	L, 78-63	68		Home	10-11	3-7
Sat Jan 28	98	19	Maryland	L, 82-63	65		Away	10-12	3-8
Tue Jan 31	100	26	Illinois	L, 72-56	73		Away	10-13	3-9
Sun Feb 5	103	49	Penn St.	W, 72-63	62		Home	11-13	4-9
Wed Feb 8	98	42	Michigan	L, 93-72	71		Away	11-14	4-10
Sat Feb 11	104	64	Wisconsin	W, 73-63	72	OT	Home	12-14	5-10
Tue Feb 14	102	35	Rutgers	W, 82-72	68		Away	13-14	6-10
Sun Feb 19	96	19	Maryland	W, 70-66	72	OT	Home	14-14	7-10
Sat Feb 25	90	221	Minnesota	W, 78-67	75		Home	15-14	8-10
Tue Feb 28		28	Michigan St.	L, 68-65	65	41%	Home		×
Sun Mar 5		45	Iowa	L, 80-72	69	23%	Away		×
Projected record:								16-15	9-11

 

 

 

 

 

[HuskerFever]

54 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

The way I understand it, scoring margin is not a factor. It’s offense and defense efficiency that’s killing us (so I guess in a way those blowout losses are hurting us). Computers see a good team in Ohio St, and a much more flawed team in Nebraska….to me that indicates their formula is broken. 

 

Scoring margin is a component of it. But looking back, it does seem it's capped at 10 pts (1 pt for OT).

 

 

Edited February 26, 2023 by HuskerFever

[royalfan]

That is no longer the way NET works @HuskerFever.  That article I posted above clears it all up the best I have seen.  
 

https://www.mwcconnection.com/platform/amp/2023/1/12/23552090/stats-corner-net-vs-kenpom-rankings

Edited February 26, 2023 by royalfan

[HuskerFever]

52 minutes ago, royalfan said:

That is no longer the way NET works @HuskerFever.  That article I posted above clears it all up the best I have seen.  
 

https://www.mwcconnection.com/platform/amp/2023/1/12/23552090/stats-corner-net-vs-kenpom-rankings

 

For those who don't want to click the link or dig:

 

Beginning in 2020, winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin were all dropped from the NET ranking. Therefore, only team value and team value index are used to ranked teams. So, the only factors which go into the rankings are efficiency (offensive points per possession minus opponents points per possession), strength of opponents played, location of game, wins and losses, and who won the game.

[HuskerFever]

1 hour ago, The Polish Rifle said:

The biggest outliers are: predictive loves Ohio S...

 

55 minutes ago, royalfan said:

That is no longer the way NET works @HuskerFever.  That article I posted above clears it all up the best I have seen.  
 

https://www.mwcconnection.com/platform/amp/2023/1/12/23552090/stats-corner-net-vs-kenpom-rankings

 

This does help explain some of the oddities with Ohio State then. Although Ohio State only has one road win all season.

[Silverbacked1]

All I can say is Math r hard

[The Polish Rifle]

Last year the NIT heavily used NET for selection. I was reading a Washington St article about last year's NIT selection and it appears that NET was the single most important metric for NIT selections.

 

"Hopefully you quickly noticed the same thing I did: That the NIT committee basically looked at the NET rankings and selected teams rated highly by that metric. Then they went one step further and also used it to seed the teams (with a couple of obvious regional adjustments), which is how the Cougs ended up with a 4 seed: They were among the top half of the field in NET."

 

I can see us being this year's South Carolina. South Carolina had a better record, and finished higher than MSU and Vandy - even went 2-0 against Vandy, yet Vandy and MSU went to the NIT strictly due to having a better NET.

[FredsSlacks]

i guarantee the NCAA is just looking for a reason to put us into the play-in game at minimum. 

 

the ratings we'd get with tominaga + being the only power 5 team to never win.

 

i think 18 wins is the magic number. 

[HuskerFever]

2 minutes ago, FredsSlacks said:

i guarantee the NCAA is just looking for a reason to put us into the play-in game at minimum. 

 

the ratings we'd get with tominaga + being the only power 5 team to never win.

 

i think 18 wins is the magic number. 

 

It's not a science, we all know that, so take it with as much grain of salt as you want.

 

Current Last Four Out:

Penn State: #57 NET, 17-1, Q1 3-7, Q2 4-4, Q3 5-0, Q4 5-0

Utah State: #32 NET, 21-7, Q1 1-4, Q2 5-1, Q3 12-1, Q4 3-1

North Carolina: #47 NET, 18-11, Q1 1-8, Q2 6-3, Q3 5-0, Q4 6-0

Arizona State: #59 NET, 20-9, Q1 4-4, Q2 5-5, Q3 4-0, Q4 7-1

 

Nebraska: #93 NET, 15-14, Q1 3-10, Q2 4-4, Q3 1-0, Q4 7-0

 

The teams ahead of us in NET with 14+ losses are: #64 Florida (15), #65 Oklahoma (15), #71 Ohio State (17), #74 Colorado (14), #75 Washington State (15), #78 Villanova (14), #89 BYU (14)

[FredsSlacks]

1 minute ago, HuskerFever said:

 

It's not a science, we all know that, so take it with as much grain of salt as you want.

 

Current Last Four Out:

Penn State: #57 NET, 17-1, Q1 3-7, Q2 4-4, Q3 5-0, Q4 5-0

Utah State: #32 NET, 21-7, Q1 1-4, Q2 5-1, Q3 12-1, Q4 3-1

North Carolina: #47 NET, 18-11, Q1 1-8, Q2 6-3, Q3 5-0, Q4 6-0

Arizona State: #59 NET, 20-9, Q1 4-4, Q2 5-5, Q3 4-0, Q4 7-1

 

Nebraska: #93 NET, 15-14, Q1 3-10, Q2 4-4, Q3 1-0, Q4 7-0

 

The teams ahead of us in NET with 14+ losses are: #64 Florida (15), #65 Oklahoma (15), #71 Ohio State (17), #74 Colorado (14), #75 Washington State (15), #78 Villanova (14), #89 BYU (14)

if we get to 18 wins it will mean we have beaten 3 more tourney teams. i would imagine we'd move up a lot.