Nebraska Bubble Watch

[AuroranHusker]

8 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Now that's one big tushy. 

 

It's a big, big, big, big, big deal.

 

-Doc Sadler, probably

[Nebrasketball1979]

10 minutes ago, Donkey said:

Quad 1 record: 2-8

 

Home: Purdue; Iowa

 

Away: PSU; Michigan; MSU

 

Conference Record: 5-10

 

I keep looking over last year's selections versus Quad 1 wins.  This SOS is very tough and could help Nebraska.  Oklahoma St (5) and LSU (6) were left out while Oklahoma (6) got in.  All had 8-10 conference records.  The biggest difference I can see differentiating this group is the Non-Con schedule.  LSU had 3 losses with one being to Stephen F Austin at home.   Oklahoma State had a lot of easy wins.  

 

I could see an Oklahoma type path if Nebraska goes 4-2.  All of the above are Quad 1 wins.  It will be hard for the Committee to ignore 6 Quad 1 wins.  A 3-3 record would require a deep run into the BIG tourney.  2-4 or worse and Nebraska is NIT bound.  

 

I think it boils down pretty simply:

 

18 wins - Bubbly and very close, likely NIT bound in my opinion.

19 wins - Bubbly, likely NCAA bound

20 wins - NCAA and hopefully/potentially the retirement of two threads - "Our Next Coach" and "Enjoying the Last Month of the Miles Era"!

 

The easiest path to 18 wins is obviously tomorrow at PSU and the two remaining home games.  I just don't know if collectively those three wins have enough "Wow" factor to make us a slam dunk case.  My gut tells me our Quad 1 wins, which would likely be 5 at that point just don't jump off the page as some other teams Quad 1 wins might.  I think that 19th win, whether a road win at MSU or Michigan or in the Big Tourney is really critical.

Edited February 18, 2019 by Nebrasketball1979

[AuroranHusker]

Win the Big Ten tourney and remove all doubt! GBR !!!

 

 

[HuskerFever]

2 minutes ago, AuroranHusker said:

Win the Big Ten tourney and remove all doubt! GBR !!!

 

 

Why haven't we done that every year?

[AuroranHusker]

Just now, HuskerFever said:

 

 

Why haven't we done that every year?

 

It was Glynn Watson's team goal for this season--along with the Final Four--that he mentioned at the Nebrasketball Buddies event in mid-Dec.

 

 

[The Polish Rifle]

I thought we were this year's version of 2018 Oklahoma...turns out this year's version of 2018 Oklahoma is........(drum roll)......OKLAHOMA. They are 4-9 in the Big 12 and in most every bracket on bracket matrix. 

[hskr4life]

Let’s not forget just how weak the bubble really is this year too.  Last year the bubble was a lot stronger.  This year?  Not so much.

[The Polish Rifle]

4 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Let’s not forget just how weak the bubble really is this year too.  Last year the bubble was a lot stronger.  This year?  Not so much.

It's horrid this year....3-2 down the stretch will have us firmly on the bubble. Butler on the bubble and they are 6-7 in a really iffy Big East. 

 

Ward injured for MSU makes that game a bit easier. I really hope this team can find a way to win it's next 2. Miles deserves it, our players deserve, our fans deserve (hope I don't sound entitled). I so badly want this next month to be interesting.

[hskr4life]

Just for the sake of sakes... the teams around us on the bubble according to bracketmatrix are...

 

Indiana, Davidson, Florida, Utah State, Furman, Toledo, San Francisco, Dayto, UNC Greensboro, St. Marys, Arkansas, Creighton

 

You tell me... that at 15-11... how our resume does not compete with ANY of those teams.

[brfrad]

Luinardi still hates Nebrasketball.  Has Indiana and Oklahoma in, but Nebraska is not in his first four out or next four out.  Not to mention ASU, number 71 in the NET.  Nebraska is 38.  And, Temple is the last team in, with 1 Q1 win and 56 in the NET.  I am not saying Nebraska should be in, but the teams he has of ahead of them don't belong either.

[brfrad]

5 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Just for the sake of sakes... the teams around us on the bubble according to bracketmatrix are...

 

Indiana, Davidson, Florida, Utah State, Furman, Toledo, San Francisco, Dayto, UNC Greensboro, St. Marys, Arkansas, Creighton

 

You tell me... that at 15-11... how our resume does not compete with ANY of those teams.

Creighton can't even be in because they have a losing record.

[HuskerFever]

12 minutes ago, brfrad said:

Luinardi still hates Nebrasketball.  Has Indiana and Oklahoma in, but Nebraska is not in his first four out or next four out.  Not to mention ASU, number 71 in the NET.  Nebraska is 38.  And, Temple is the last team in, with 1 Q1 win and 56 in the NET.  I am not saying Nebraska should be in, but the teams he has of ahead of them don't belong either.

 

When it comes to Lunardi, and frankly much of the national media, it seems like they view Nebraska basketball in a "prove me wrong first" position. And sadly in most cases we don't prove them wrong. When we have, it was very short-lived.

 

That's why I feel like we're stuck in this holding pattern with the pundits where they're waiting to see how we'll shake up.

[brfrad]

Just now, HuskerFever said:

 

When it comes to Lunardi, and frankly much of the national media, it seems like they view Nebraska basketball in a "prove me wrong first" position. And sadly in most cases we don't prove them wrong. When we have, it was very short-lived.

 

That's why I feel like we're stuck in this holding pattern with the pundits where they're waiting to see how we'll shake up.

I would think that, but most of the national at least have us in the first four out or next four out.  He has us in neither.  I know Shelby Mast from USA Today, and Jerry Palm from CBS Sports have us in the first four out.  So, the national media think we are close, except for Luinardi *who I think does it to get more clicks from Nebraska fans.

[The Polish Rifle]

2 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

When it comes to Lunardi, and frankly much of the national media, it seems like they view Nebraska basketball in a "prove me wrong first" position. And sadly in most cases we don't prove them wrong. When we have, it was very short-lived.

 

That's why I feel like we're stuck in this holding pattern with the pundits where they're waiting to see how we'll shake up.

Yeah. certainly not hate. Lunardi catches a lot of flack, but his goal is to pick the bracket. We all torched him last year, but in the end he was right about us not being in, or close to in. 

[hskr4life]

17 minutes ago, brfrad said:

Creighton can't even be in because they have a losing record.

 

Just shows  you how weak the bubble really is.

[HuskerFever]

Auburn is 0-7 in Quad 1 wins, yet is likely to make the tournament this year.

[Donkey]

2 hours ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

 

I think it boils down pretty simply:

 

18 wins - Bubbly and very close, likely NIT bound in my opinion.

19 wins - Bubbly, likely NCAA bound

20 wins - NCAA and hopefully/potentially the retirement of two threads - "Our Next Coach" and "Enjoying the Last Month of the Miles Era"!

 

The easiest path to 18 wins is obviously tomorrow at PSU and the two remaining home games.  I just don't know if collectively those three wins have enough "Wow" factor to make us a slam dunk case.  My gut tells me our Quad 1 wins, which would likely be 5 at that point just don't jump off the page as some other teams Quad 1 wins might.  I think that 19th win, whether a road win at MSU or Michigan or in the Big Tourney is really critical.

 

It is really hard to make that determination when you are only looking at Nebraska by itself.  Right now Bracket Matrix has Butler as the last team in.  Butler has a similar overall record but only 1 Quad 1 win (against Ole Miss) with only 2 Quad 1 games remaining on the schedule.  Assuming Butler wins its remaining non-Quad 1 games and loses the Quad 1 games, Butler would have a 18-13, 9-9 final record with 1 Quad 1 win.  I think a 17-14 Nebraska would be left out due to a 7-13 conference record (but I guarantee it would be closer than you think).  However, it would be hard for the committee to take Butler over a 18-13 Nebraska squad with 5 Quad 1 wins.  

 

The next three -- Temple (0), Arizona St (2), and Clemson (1) -- also would have the same issues against a 18 win Nebraska.

 

EDIT: I forgot to mention.  Right now Nebraska does not have any Quad 3 or worse losses.  Illinois and Rutgers are Quad 2.  If Illinois wins a few more games, that could change to a Quad 1 loss.  Tougher losses should give Nebraska an edge as well.

Edited February 18, 2019 by Donkey

[HuskerFever]

3 minutes ago, Donkey said:

I think a 18-14 Nebraska would be left out due to a 7-13 conference record (but I guarantee it would be closer than you think).

 

I'm not saying the committee wouldn't do its own math nor consider that as a selection criteria, but conference records and conference standings don't show up on the selection committee team sheets.

[royalfan]

Oddly, the stuff that incorrectly hindered us last year is giving us a chance this year.  The difference in league quality of big ten from last year to this year is ridiculously overblown.  

[brfrad]

10 minutes ago, royalfan said:

Oddly, the stuff that incorrectly hindered us last year is giving us a chance this year.  The difference in league quality of big ten from last year to this year is ridiculously overblown.  

Big 10 this year is 121-32 (.791) in non-conference

Last year they were 137-45 (.753) in non-conference by my count including many bad losses.

 

I go to back to the saying "You're never as good as you think you are, or as bad as think you are."  It wasn't as bad last year as the national media made it out to be, nor is it as good this year.

[HuskerFever]

1 minute ago, brfrad said:

Big 10 this year is 121-32 (.791) in non-conference

Last year they were 137-45 (.753) in non-conference by my count including many bad losses.

 

I go to back to the saying "You're never as good as you think you are, or as bad as think you are."  It wasn't as bad last year as the national media made it out to be, nor is it as good this year.

 

I might argue that moving from 18 conference games to 20, while keeping the Big East/ACC/tourney challenges in place, caused 14 Big Ten teams to "drop" their lowest 2 nonconference opponents that they would have otherwise scheduled. That's 28 "gimmie" games.

 

Your overall point still holds water though.

[brfrad]

1 minute ago, HuskerFever said:

 

I might argue that moving from 18 conference games to 20, while keeping the Big East/ACC/tourney challenges in place, caused 14 Big Ten teams to "drop" their lowest 2 nonconference opponents that they would have otherwise scheduled. That's 28 "gimmie" games.

 

Your overall point still holds water though.

I forgot that we went to 20 games this year.  I was trying to figure out how I had like 28 extra games from last year.

[AuroranHusker]

 

 

[Handy Johnson]

Our last team to win the Conference tourney in ‘94 was like a runaway beer truck with the brake lines cut. This squad has the look of a team limping to the finish line. If they want to do something “Special” as they’ve claimed from the start, it’s all right there in front of them, but it needs to happen now...

[tcp]

27 minutes ago, Handy Johnson said:

Our last team to win the Conference tourney in ‘94 was like a runaway beer truck with the brake lines cut. This squad has the look of a team limping to the finish line. If they want to do something “Special” as they’ve claimed from the start, it’s all right there in front of them, but it needs to happen now...

 

I dunno. There's a lot of "runaway truck-y" stuff about this team, too. If by that you mean collectively unable to put the ball in the little hoop thingee for weeks at a time.