Predicting Player Stats

[NU Follower]

Now that we've seen a little bit of this team, what does everyone think will happen?  Here's my prediction for the stat distribution for this year's team.  In trying to do this, it was difficult to predict the order of our scoring from most points to least.  Best guess is below:

 

Stats:  (order based on scoring)

T. Webster      12 pts   4 reb   3 ass  2 st

I. Roby            11 pts   4 reb   3 ass 1 bl

G. Watson      10 pts    2 reb   6 ass  2 st

M. Jacobson     9 pts   6 reb   1 bl

E. Morrow         8 pts   5 reb   1 bl

J. McVeigh        7 pts   2 reb

A. Gill                6 pts   2 reb

J. Tshimanga    5 pts   3 reb

E. Taylor           4 pts   2 reb

J. Horne           3 pts   1 reb

TOTALS         75 points  31 rebs

 

I see a fairly balanced team.  Going into the year I thought Gill would be one of our top 2 scorers, but from what I've read, I've lower my expectations for him and increased my expectations for Roby.  My biggest question is who is going to be our 'go to' scorer at the end of games.  I think we will have the ball in Watson's hands to create a shot for himself or someone else.  My prediction is 10-8 in the BIG and we'll be dancin!

 

What does everyone think?

 

Edited November 10, 2016 by NU Follower

[49r]

Here's what Ken Pomeroy has to say about Nebraska's schedule.  I think 75 points is generous, as is 10 B1G wins:

 

Date	Rk	Opponent		Result			Location	Record	Conf
Sun Nov 13		237	Sacramento St.	W, 75-63	69	87%	Home
Tue Nov 15		NR	ary	W		100%	Home
Sat Nov 19		169	Louisiana Tech	W, 75-66	72	79%	Home
Thu Nov 24		37	Dayton	L, 71-65	69	30%	Neutral
Wed Nov 30		23	Clemson	L, 71-60	66	16%	Away
Sat Dec 3		274	South Dakota	W, 77-63	70	90%	Home
Wed Dec 7		32	Creighton	L, 72-69	70	40%	Home
Sat Dec 10		3	Kansas	L, 78-61	70	6%	Away
Sun Dec 18		254	Gardner Webb	W, 75-62	70	89%	Home
Tue Dec 20		282	Southern	W, 74-60	69	91%	Home
Wed Dec 28		16	Indiana	L, 77-65	69	13%	Away		×
Sun Jan 1		48	Maryland	L, 73-64	69	21%	Away		×
Thu Jan 5		55	Iowa	L, 70-69	69	47%	Home		×
Sun Jan 8		61	Northwestern	W, 66-65	66	55%	Home		×
Sat Jan 14		31	Michigan	L, 73-62	67	18%	Away		×
Wed Jan 18		13	Ohio St.	L, 70-65	69	32%	Home		×
Sat Jan 21		191	Rutgers	W, 69-67	68	57%	Away		×
Thu Jan 26		61	Northwestern	L, 68-62	66	29%	Away		×
Sun Jan 29		15	Purdue	L, 71-66	69	32%	Home		×
Thu Feb 2		14	Michigan St.	L, 71-66	68	33%	Home		×
Sun Feb 5		55	Iowa	L, 74-66	69	23%	Away		×
Thu Feb 9		8	Wisconsin	L, 70-62	66	25%	Home		×
Tue Feb 14		98	Penn St.	W, 68-64	68	66%	Home		×
Sat Feb 18		13	Ohio St.	L, 74-61	69	13%	Away		×
Thu Feb 23		14	Michigan St.	L, 75-63	68	13%	Away		×
Sun Feb 26		70	Illinois	W, 70-68	69	58%	Home		×
Thu Mar 2		71	Minnesota	L, 72-66	70	32%	Away		×
Sun Mar 5		31	Michigan	L, 69-66	67	40%	Home		×
Projected record:								12-16	6-12
Chance of unbeaten record:								0.00%	0.00%
Chance of winless record:								0.00%	0.03%

[hhcmatt]

11 minutes ago, 49r said:

Here's what Ken Pomeroy has to say about Nebraska's schedule.  I think 75 points is generous

 

I think it's safe to say this is our deepest team. Does Miles increase the tempo?

[49r]

that's gonna be the million dollar question, @hhcdimes

 

Hopefully the answer is yes.  I'm just saying Pomeroy only has us breaking the 75 point mark once this season (and only just barely at that) so to sit here right now and say that we're gonna average 75 may be just a tad optimistic.

 

In my opinion.

Edited November 10, 2016 by 49r

[Red Rum]

I don't think Miles will specifically up the tempo to the point Nebrasketball will be a run and gun team. That said, he is recruiting longer, more athletic players and that sets them up pretty well for turnover transition points and Webster and Gill seem pretty good at slashing to the bucket so it could appear they increased the tempo. And I think he'll loosen the reigns a little bit and not have them stop and set up and run a play every possession. This seems more like a free flowing team. 

 

But these are all just hopes and you can hope in one and poop in the other and see which fills up first so.....(poop emoji)

[Silverbacked1]

21 minutes ago, 49r said:

that's gonna be the million dollar question, @hhcdimes

 

Hopefully the answer is yes.  I'm just saying Pomeroy only has us breaking the 75 point mark once this season (and only just barely at that) so to sit here right now and say that we're gonna average 75 may be just a tad optimistic.

 

In my opinion.

We did average around 71 in the conference last year didn't we?  And that was with us having our 5 min. average of not scoring.  I think we might be able to at least equal that this year.  Or at least I hope we can, because I don't see the long non scoring droughts with this team because hopefully we aren't going to rely on just one or two to do the scoring for us.

[Silverbacked1]

2 minutes ago, Red Rum said:

I don't think Miles will specifically up the tempo to the point Nebrasketball will be a run and gun team. That said, he is recruiting longer, more athletic players and that sets them up pretty well for turnover transition points and Webster and Gill seem pretty good at slashing to the bucket so it could appear they increased the tempo. And I think he'll loosen the reigns a little bit and not have them stop and set up and run a play every possession. This seems more like a free flowing team. 

 

But these are all just hopes and you can hope in one and poop in the other and see which fills up first so.....(poop emoji)

Was what I was going to say.  Thought we looked to run when it was there the other night.  Now I know that it was like the second to last game of the day of pick up games at the Y, but we didn't walk it up much like we have in the past.  We hit the Offensive boards hard, and also when we got the ball to our wings or gaurds on the side or up top on D, the 4 and 5's looked to run hard down the floor.  So we must be working on it.

 

I don't think that we are going to be run, run, run but I feel that it could be much faster than years past.

[big red22]

I. Roby              13 pts   4.6 reb   3 ass   1.2 blk 1 st

T. Webster        12 pts   3.2 reb   3 ass 1 st

G. Watson         10 pts    2 reb   6 ass  2 st

A. Gill                8.3 pts   2 reb   2 ass 2 st

M. Jacobson     8.2 pts   5.4 reb   0.8 bl

J. McVeigh        7 pts    2.8 reb

E. Morrow         5.8 pts   7 reb   1 bl

J. Tshimanga    4.7 pts   3 reb   2 bl

E. Taylor           2 pts   2 reb

J. Horne           2 pts   1 reb

N. Fuller           0.8 pts    1 reb

M. Laws           0.2 pts

TOTALS         74 points  34 rebs  14 ass 6 st 5 blks 

 

[Norm Peterson]

I think we're better than Pomeroy thinks we are.

[49r]

22 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

I think we're better than Pomeroy thinks we are.

 

Literally EVERYBODY from every fanbase says that at this time of year, though.  I was just reading the Northwestern message board and they all think Pomeroy has them ranked way too low, not getting enough credit for their team's potential, yadda-yadda.  Colorado fans think a 5th or 6th place finish is way lower than their guys will actually finish.  Based on what?  Pure hope and optimism really.

 

Minnesota fans think they've got a good enough team to slide in to the top half of the B1G, so do Illinois fans.  Iowa fans expect it.  Hell, even Rutgers fans have this crazy idea that they could potentially not finish last.

Edited November 10, 2016 by 49r

[Hooper]

Pomeroy is a statistician, and the stats he has to work with for this Nebraska team are extremely lacking. The team has far too many new faces playing key roles, and far too many unknown variables for Pomeroy or anyone else to have an accurate read on what we should expect. The truth is that any projections for the 2016-2017 Husker hoops team are extremely speculative. I'm not saying this team will be far better than he projects, just that his preseason projections for the team don't hold much weight with me. 

Edited November 10, 2016 by Hooper

[49r]

But that's kinda the point @Hooper - everybody's got new guys coming in and everybody's got high hopes for their newcomers. It's pretty much all speculation at this point.

[hhcmatt]

6 hours ago, 49r said:

that's gonna be the million dollar question, @hhcdimes

 

Hopefully the answer is yes.  I'm just saying Pomeroy only has us breaking the 75 point mark once this season (and only just barely at that) so to sit here right now and say that we're gonna average 75 may be just a tad optimistic.

 

In my opinion.

 

@49r?P-O-M-E-R-O-Y, the Eskimo pie hits ya right between the eyes?

[Hooper]

17 minutes ago, 49r said:

But that's kinda the point @Hooper - everybody's got new guys coming in and everybody's got high hopes for their newcomers. It's pretty much all speculation at this point.

 

Each team is different. Some teams have a lot of turnover, while others are very similar to the previous year. I'm just saying that, while I love KenPom, the preseason ratings for many teams are liable to be extremely inaccurate, and the larger the amount of turnover, the less accurate they're likely to be. Remember how the 2013-2014 team was ranked by KenPom preseason? I'm thinking it was around 175 or so. I believe that team, at one point, was in the top 25 later that season.

 

So, if a Northwestern fan believes Ken may have ranked the Wildcats too low preseason, he may very well be right, but Ken is a generalist and fundamentally a statistician. What would the 2013-2014 preseason stats have projected for Terran Petteway after he sat out a year after averaging 1.8 PPG at Texas Tech?

[Silverbacked1]

Plus doesn't he have to do like 377 teams?  That is a ton to look at before any has a ball hit the floor.

[Norm Peterson]

3 hours ago, 49r said:

 

Literally EVERYBODY from every fanbase says that at this time of year, though.  I was just reading the Northwestern message board and they all think Pomeroy has them ranked way too low, not getting enough credit for their team's potential, yadda-yadda.  Colorado fans think a 5th or 6th place finish is way lower than their guys will actually finish.  Based on what?  Pure hope and optimism really.

 

Minnesota fans think they've got a good enough team to slide in to the top half of the B1G, so do Illinois fans.  Iowa fans expect it.  Hell, even Rutgers fans have this crazy idea that they could potentially not finish last.

 

Minnesota fans are wrong, as are Iowa fans.  Illinois fans might have a point.  Rutgers fans are lunatics.

 

Trust me.  I've watched our new talent enough to get a decent impression of what we have, and seeing how they meshed in the scrimmage gave me a lot of comfort with how they'll be able to play.  We'll be hugely better defensively than we were a year ago and I think the scoring will be a lot more balanced with probably 5-6 guys averaging between 8-12 points/game.

 

We are going to be better than we were a year ago.  Mark it down.

[khoock]

T. Webster 14 pts 5 reb 3 asst 2 stl

G. Watson 10 pts 2 reb 6 asst 1 stl

J. McVeigh 9 pts 4 reb 1 asst

A. Gill 9 pts 2 reb 1 stl

I. Roby 8 pts 4 reb 2 asst 1 stl

M. Jacobson 8 pts 5 reb 1 asst

E. Morrow 8 pts 6 reb 2 blk

J. Tshimanga 3 pts 5 reb 1 blk

J. Horne 3 pts 2 reb

E. Taylor* 3 pts 2 reb 1 asst

N. Fuller* 2 pts 1 reb

 

*indicates they won't play every game.

Two of the last three players (Fuller, Taylor, and Horne) won't make the rotation. I went with Horne bc of his 3 pt shooting and I think his defense will progress as the season does. 

 

[49r]

I hear ya @Norm Peterson

 

But how much of the new talent at Minnesota and Northwestern and Iowa and Illinois and Penn State have you been watching?  See what I'm saying?  It's easier to discount what the others have coming when you don't know as much about them - which allows you to maybe place so much more value on our newcomers because they're much more familiar.  

 

Now you may be right (and you probably are to a degree), but in the end I think he's got us ranked pretty fair.  It's all going to come down to our health and how fast our youngsters develop.  

 

At this point, I'm really just hoping to get to .500 overall and nab that NIT bid.

Edited November 10, 2016 by 49r

[busticket]

I think shooting for a .500 record and an NIT bid is very reasonable for such a young team.  Anything more is gravy.  

 

For me, this season will be fun to watch the freshmen and sophomore classes continue to develop.  Once this group is seasoned, I think some really good things will happen for us.

[Coaches kid]

My $.02 (points only)

 

Webster      11.3

Watson       10.6

Roby           10.0

Gill                8.4

McVeigh       7.9

Jacobsen     7.5

Morrow         6.0

Horne           3.6

Tschminga    3.4

Taylor           2.3

Fuller            1.2

 

I think Roby will have some lights out games throughout the year, but will struggle some in conference play when teams game plan to stop him. Webster and Watson will be the steady scorers game in and game out. McVeigh will have a few breakout games when he gets hot from 3. I could see Gill heading into double figure range when he gets fully healthy and comfortable in the rotation.

 

While we may struggle for wins (I am actually cautiously optimistic), I do see encouragement in that in many possible line-ups, we will have at least 3,4 or 5 scoring threats on the floor, which means that defenses will at least have to guard us, so we don't have to play 2 or 3 on 5 on most possessions. This will date me, but it would be nice for Jordy to eventually develop into a Kmani Ffriend or a Derrick Chandler offensively. 

 

 

[Norm Peterson]

49r, I agree that our ranking is fair.  Based on what anyone outside the program could really know about us, I think it's fair.  But I still think we're better than that. 

 

The team that I saw at the exhibition game is a better team than the team that took the floor for the exhibition game the year before.  It just is.  The improvement in Ed Morrow and addition of Jordy Tshimanga will make a night-and-day difference in our front line, to say nothing of the addition of Isaiah Roby who showed the other night that it wasn't just hype, that he can back it up.

 

Areas where I think this year's version of Nebrasketball is clearly better than last would include defense and bench.  We'll still be able to score this year when our star player is taking a blow or in foul trouble.

[49r]

I'm encouraged by the exhibition too, Norm.  But at the end of the day it's still just one data point so far against an obviously overmatched CSC team and we really can't or shouldn't project out the whole season based just on that.

 

It is also true that we do appear to be a more complete team than we have ever been since perhaps the Nee days, but we're still very green damn near everywhere so I still expect the EKG or at least roller coaster ride.

 

I'm going to really enjoy watching the team in the next three games (I plan to be able to make it to all three) too.  Until we get out to Anaheim though all I can say is we just don't know yet what we have or what we'll have to contend with in the league.  We will know a whole lot more about who we are as a team in about 2 and a half weeks.  If by then we are 5-1, I'll agree this is a much better than #87 KenPom team.  Until then I'm satisfied.

 

Anyway, I digress.  I've gotten way off topic here and I apologize for that.  But I think you know how I feel about preseason prediction threads.

[49r]

And yeah, I think Roby might just be good enough to make us say "Shavon who?" by the end of the year.  I felt a little dirty typing that just now too...

[Huskerpapa]

We will exceed expectations this year.  Shock and awe!

[led1]

Pomeroy's detail looks like he is only projecting 10 wins, not 12.