Games Of Note/Bubble Watch 2024

[hhcmatt]

At the end of the day we likely need to win 4 of the next 6 which is another way of saying over .500 in the conference or win at least one on the road in conference.  

[cipsucks]

20 hours ago, cozrulz said:

 

This Nebraska team doesn't know how good they are.

 

Talking with my brother today.  He said that 15 minute stretch in the first half was the best Nebraska basketball he has ever seen.  He's 5 years older than me.  I don't disagree.  I threw out that Nebraska's first round OT victory in the Big 8 tourney over Oklahoma might be a close second. He said, " Yeah, but Pike took over that game.  This Nebraska team has 5-7 players that can really contribute."   He might have a point.

 

I really like this team.

[AuroranHusker]

41 minutes ago, cipsucks said:

 

Talking with my brother today.  He said that 15 minute stretch in the first half was the best Nebraska basketball he has ever seen.  He's 5 years older than me.  I don't disagree.  I threw out that Nebraska's first round OT victory in the Big 8 tourney over Oklahoma might be a close second. He said, " Yeah, but Pike took over that game.  This Nebraska team has 5-7 players that can really contribute."   He might have a point.

 

I really like this team.

 

Your brother is a smart man. 

 

I agree with your assessment, I really like this team. Poised to make a monumental season a reality !

 

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

Sallis absolutely balling at Duke. Sigh. What could’ve been.

[Vinny]

Parker Friedrichsen had double digits for Wake tonight too.

[Navin R. Johnson]

Duke gets the win but Wake is good.  Looked like a tournament team to me.

[hskr4life]

Good win for us (Duke). Absolutely need bubble teams to avoid big wins.

[OmahaHusker]

9 minutes ago, Navin R. Johnson said:

Duke gets the win but Wake is good.  Looked like a tournament team to me.

Could definitely see them beating Clemson and Duke at home. Didn’t look outmatched at all. 

[HuskerActuary]

Quite a few big games today.

 

Ole Miss at Kentucky: Strongly root for Kentucky. Ole Miss will feel very good about its NCAA chances with a win.

 

Iowa State at Cincinnati: Strongly root for Iowa State

 

New Mexico at Nevada: I assume we want New Mexico to win as they are probably somewhat safe into the tourney and Nevada is near the cutline. Toss-up game.

 

There are more. I'll let hskr4life work his magic later

 

 

[SkersHoops]

32 minutes ago, HuskerActuary said:

Quite a few big games today.

 

Ole Miss at Kentucky: Strongly root for Kentucky. Ole Miss will feel very good about its NCAA chances with a win.

 

Iowa State at Cincinnati: Strongly root for Iowa State

 

New Mexico at Nevada: I assume we want New Mexico to win as they are probably somewhat safe into the tourney and Nevada is near the cutline. Toss-up game.

 

There are more. I'll let hskr4life work his magic later

 

 

I would agree that New Mexico and Nevada is a toss up.  I listened to "The Field of 68" yesterday.  They put a lot of emphasis on victories away from home (yikes). I guess New Mexico has a lot of them,  but the average NET of those road wins are in the 320ish range. They are both right with us,  according to them.  

 

[jimmykc]

I was impressed with Sallis' growth and maturity since going to Wake. The announcers mentioned he might decide to opt for the pro draft after this year. However, he has to put up over 20 shots to score over 20 points and most of his success is based on driving to the basket himself. It is interesting to consider how he would have fit in on this year's team.

[hskr4life]

11 hours ago, OmahaHusker said:

Could definitely see them beating Clemson and Duke at home. Didn’t look outmatched at all. 

They need to too… Didn’t know this until this morning, but Wake is still without a Q1 win.  Their Virginia and Florida games are so close to putting them into the win column, but as it stands they have yet to win a Q1 game.

 

The committee has NEVER taken an at large without a Q1 win.

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

1 hour ago, jimmykc said:

I was impressed with Sallis' growth and maturity since going to Wake. The announcers mentioned he might decide to opt for the pro draft after this year. However, he has to put up over 20 shots to score over 20 points and most of his success is based on driving to the basket himself. It is interesting to consider how he would have fit in on this year's team.

I don’t think either of those things you said is true. He’s extremely efficient. 19 ppg on 14 shots. 50% shooting, including 40% from deep. And he takes 5.6 threes per game. You have to be a great shooter to hit 40% at that volume, especially as a primary ball handler.

 

He’s legitimately one of the best players in college basketball and has worked his way into the 1st round of the draft. He’s exactly what this team is missing. A ball handler who can create his own shot. Thinking about our potential with him in the lineup is painful.

Edited February 13 by Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

1 hour ago, SkersHoops said:

I would agree that New Mexico and Nevada is a toss up.  I listened to "The Field of 68" yesterday.  They put a lot of emphasis on victories away from home (yikes). I guess New Mexico has a lot of them,  but the average NET of those road wins are in the 320ish range. They are both right with us,  according to them.  

 

Yeah I think this is one of those games you don’t stress too much over. New Mexico isn’t going to get dinged much for a road loss, but they do have a tough three game stretch starting tonight so if they hit the skids that’d be good.

 

On the other hand, Nevada is considered closer to being out than New Mexico, so could argue that the Lobos solidifying themselves is worth hurting Nevada. I’d probably lean toward rooting for NM.

[hhcmatt]

Would love to see the guys who chose Wake Forest over Nebraska have a deep run into the NIT 

[hskr4life]

Results (2/12/24): Biggest bubble game of the day went our way… barely.  Wake hung with Duke for a while before falling at the end.  Sallis with a nice game. TCU beat WVU and while I didn’t expect anything different, a home loss for the frogs would have been good for us.

• Big 10 Games
  • None
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • Prairie View A&M 61 @ Florida A&M 58
• Other Bubble Games
  • Wake Forest 69 @ Duke 77
  • West Virginia 65 @ TCU 81
     

Games To Watch (2/13/24): Boy what a slate tonight for bubble games!  As always, the bubble team I feel is bolder.  Some bubble teams with HUGE opportunities at home include Butler, Syracuse, Cincinnati, and Nevada.  Would benefit us for all of them to lose.  Nevada and NM is kind of a toss up, but Nevada more to lose with this one than NM.  I don’t think a loss knocks NM out but a win would knock Nevada down a peg.  Indiana St is ranked but could easily find themselves in a 1 bid league if they lose a couple. St John’s and Providence both bubbly and both looking to knock the other down a peg.  I think Ole Miss is safely in barring something crazy but they do have a tough stretch here and haven’t won a game in Feb yet.

• Big 10 Games
  • Michigan @ Illinois
  • OSU @ Wisconsin
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • Duquesne @ Dayton
  • Georgetown @ Creighton
• Other Bubble Games
  • Marquette @ Butler
  • UNC @ Syracuse
  • Iowa St @ Cincinnati 
  • Illinois St @ Indiana St
  • St Johns @ Providence
  • Texas A&M @ Vandy
  • Drake @ Evansville
  • LSU @ Florida
  • UCF @ BYU
  • Ole Miss @ Kentucky
  • New Mexico @ Nevada

Edited February 13 by hskr4life

[hskr4life]

Big road opportunity for Duquesne tonight at Dayton.  Chance to get back into the NET Top 100.

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

13 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Results (2/12/24): Biggest bubble game of the day went our way… barely.  Wake hung with Duke for a while before falling at the end.  Sallis with a nice game. TCU beat WVU and while I didn’t expect anything different, a home loss for the frogs would have been good for us.

• Big 10 Games
  • None
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • Prairie View A&M 61 @ Florida A&M 58
• Other Bubble Games
  • Wake Forest 69 @ Duke 77
  • West Virginia 65 @ TCU 81
     

Games To Watch (2/13/24): Boy what a slate tonight for bubble games!  As always, the bubble team I feel is bolder.  Some bubble teams with HUGE opportunities at home include Butler, Syracuse, Cincinnati, and Nevada.  Would benefit us for all of them to lose.  Nevada and NM is kind of a toss up, but Nevada more to lose with this one than NM.  I don’t think a loss knocks NM out but a win would knock Nevada down a peg.  Indiana St is ranked but could easily find themselves in a 1 bid league if they lose a couple. St John’s and Providence both bubbly and both looking to knock the other down a peg.  I think Ole Miss is safely in barring something crazy but they do have a tough stretch here and haven’t won a game in Feb yet.

• Big 10 Games
  • Michigan @ Illinois
  • OSU @ Wisconsin
• Non-Con Opponents Games
  • Duquesne @ Dayton
• Other Bubble Games
  • Marquette @ Butler
  • UNC @ Syracuse
  • Iowa St @ Cincinnati 
  • Illinois St @ Indiana St
  • St Johns @ Providence
  • Texas A&M @ Vandy
  • Drake @ Evansville
  • LSU @ Florida
  • UCF @ BYU
  • Ole Miss @ Kentucky
  • New Mexico @ Nevada

Wisconsin Ohio State is an interesting one. On the one hand we need our best wins to look as good as possible. On the other hand Ohio State is flirting dangerously close to NET 75, which would drop our home win vs them to Q3 and our upcoming road game in Columbus to Q2.

[hskr4life]

8 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

Wisconsin Ohio State is an interesting one. On the one hand we need our best wins to look as good as possible. On the other hand Ohio State is flirting dangerously close to NET 75, which would drop our home win vs them to Q3 and our upcoming road game in Columbus to Q2.

Yeah— I think a close OSU loss would be the best we can hope for there.  Maybe OT.

[AuroranHusker]

2 hours ago, hskr4life said:

Big road opportunity for Duquesne tonight at Dayton.  Chance to get back into the NET Top 100.

 

Beating Duquesne as a top 100 team at home is considered what type of 'Q' win?

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

2 hours ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

Yeah I think this is one of those games you don’t stress too much over. New Mexico isn’t going to get dinged much for a road loss, but they do have a tough three game stretch starting tonight so if they hit the skids that’d be good.

 

On the other hand, Nevada is considered closer to being out than New Mexico, so could argue that the Lobos solidifying themselves is worth hurting Nevada. I’d probably lean toward rooting for NM.

Lunardi’s new bracket has both NM and Nevada last four in. So he’s not as high on NM as others. Maybe better if Nevada wins so nobody can add a road win to the resume.

 

So basically, I’m back to thinking our rooting interests are neutral.

[hskr4life]

19 minutes ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

Beating Duquesne as a top 100 team at home is considered what type of 'Q' win?

Q3 will remain unless they can climb back up into the top 75 to move to a Q2.

 

HOWEVER, at 161 they’d drop to a Q4.  I don’t think a move up or down in quads is in the cards barring a huge win/loss streak.

 

Having them win and jump up in the NET would be more for metrics improving than anything.

[jimmykc]

2 hours ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

I don’t think either of those things you said is true. He’s extremely efficient. 19 ppg on 14 shots. 50% shooting, including 40% from deep. And he takes 5.6 threes per game. You have to be a great shooter to hit 40% at that volume, especially as a primary ball handler.

 

He’s legitimately one of the best players in college basketball and has worked his way into the 1st round of the draft. He’s exactly what this team is missing. A ball handler who can create his own shot. Thinking about our potential with him in the lineup is painful.

Sorry, I didn't bother to look up his complete stats for this year and only used last night's performance. It wasn't intended as a critique of his talent. I was just wondering if our record would be much better as a team if we had to fit his talent into the team mix we have this year. Duke 77-69 Wake Forest (Feb 12, 2024) Box Score - ESPN

[hskr4life]

19 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

Lunardi’s new bracket has both NM and Nevada last four in. So he’s not as high on NM as others. Maybe better if Nevada wins so nobody can add a road win to the resume.

 

So basically, I’m back to thinking our rooting interests are neutral.

 

New Mexico still has @SDSU, CSU, @Boise St and @Utah St in addition to a few cupcakes

 

Nevada still has @UNLV, @CSU, @Boise and UNLV in addition to a few cupcakes.

 

I would say Nevada has the easier schedule going out so they have more opportunity to stack wins and less room for error.  NM schedule is tough outside of their cupcake games.

 

We need to pull for Tim to knock off a few of these MWC bubble teams.

[Norm Peterson]

On 2/12/2024 at 9:08 AM, hhcmatt said:

At the end of the day we likely need to win 4 of the next 6 which is another way of saying over .500 in the conference or win at least one on the road in conference.  

 

The three at home are definitely in the "should win" category. And given that they're all Quad 3, I'd call them "must-wins."

 

The three road games are all definitely in the "can win" category. But our road history is far from strong.

 

At Ohio State (NET #71) is our only remaining regular season Quad 1 opportunity.

 

At Indiana (#100) and at Michigan (#108) are both squarely in the Quad 2 category.

 

Obviously, winning cures everything. Remove any doubt by cleaning up at home, winning in Columbus, and then picking up a dub in EITHER Bloomington or Ann Arbor (preference would be Ann Arbor, a place we've never won and it would be nice to send Juwan Howard out with a home loss on senior night.)