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Big 10 tiers

brfrad

By brfrad
in The Haymarket Hardwood

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brfrad

brfrad

Posted
Posted

I thought of doing an exercise to see how we match-up in the Big 10.

 

Currently 

 

NCAA (1 - 6 seed)

Purdue. Home

Illinois. Away

Wisconsin. Home and Away

 

NCAA (7 - 10 seed)

Ohio State. Home and Away 

 

NCAA (11 seed - 12 seed) or NIT (1 seed - 2 seed)

Michigan State. Home

Indiana. Home and Away

Northwestern. Home and Away 

 

Home NIT (3 seed - 4 seed)

Nebraska

Iowa. Away

Michigan. Home and Away

 

Road NIT (5 seed - 8 seed)

Maryland. Away

Rutgers. Home and Away 

 

NIT bubble

Penn State. Home

Minnesota. Home and Away 

 

Potential

 

NCAA (1 - 6 seed)

Purdue 

Illinois

Wisconsin 

Ohio State

 

NCAA (7 - 10 seed)

Michigan State 

Indiana

 

NCAA (11 - 12 seed) or NIT (1 - 2 seed)

Northwestern

Nebraska

 

Home NIT (3 - 4 seed)

Iowa

Michigan 

Maryland

 

Road NIT (5 - 8 seed)

Rutgers 

 

NIT bubble

Penn State 

Minnesota 

 

 

If we can win most of our home games and a couple of road wins should have us looking good.

aphilso1

aphilso1

Posted
Posted

I'd donate a lot of blood to flip the locations of the Illinois and Purdue games. 

 

We'd have a shot against Illinois at home, but playing in Champaign when they're good is a tall task.  Purdue is nearly untouchable regardless of where the game is played. 

brfrad

brfrad

Posted
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Posted

I think Illinois is a bad match-up for us.  They will pressure us even more than Minnesota,  which we did not handle.  If the refs called a tight game, we would have a chance at home.

 

 The Purdue game we may have a chance if they can't hit 3's.  We hung with them in the 1st half last year, on the road, without Gary, Bandomaul, and Griessel, if I remember right.  The 2nd half they couldn't miss, and we got toasted.

Ron Mexico

Ron Mexico

Posted
Posted

Bottom  line is that we need to 3 Q1 wins and at least one of those needs to be on the road.

With the caveat that we win our next game.

Lets get this out of the way first. Are there any "bad losses" we could have in conference play. IMO, not really. With that said there are a couple of games sitting out there that if we lose them could be the difference between 17 wins or 19 wins. 

Jan 3 home vs IU. This game is important in that it is a very winnable game at home. It won't help our hurt our chances of getting in to the NCAA as a stand alone game. This game adds to to the win column. BTW, I'm very nervous about this game for a  lot of reason.

Feb 17 home vs PSU. This will be another win column filler game. 

 

Our most important games in conference play are the 2 home and away with tOSU and Wiscy. If you want to be looked at as a NCAA tourney team then you need to beat NCAA tourney teams. Those games present us with the greatest opportunity to get both Q1 wins and Q1 road wins. If the best we can do is 2-2 then I'd want both of those wins to be on the road.

Our next 3 most important games are, in no particular order,  road games at Mich, Iowa and NWU. Depending on how the season goes, all 3 of those could end up being Q1 games for us. NWU and Iowa where both in the NCAA last season.

Our season comes down to how we do in those 7 games. We need to win at lease 3 of them.

 

Throwing in both Purdue and Illinois as they will most definitely be Q1 games. Find a way to beat either of them and our NET would skyrocket.

Recall that we had both JG and EB for just 1 of our 4 matchups and for 2 of the 4 games we didn't have either of them.

I know many, if not all are putting the Purdue home game in the loss column, but they shouldn't. We are capable of winning and did play them well both times last year. Remember that OT thriller!

Illinois is a good team, however both of our losses to them (we where killed on the boards that 1st game) weren't that bad. 2nd game we were leading halfway through the 2nd half. 


Looking at last season a similar situation we could find ourselves in would be that of Illinois. A NCAA tourney 9 seed. They finished tied for 5th in the BIG. A top 3 conference.  NET with a record of 20-13 (11-9) and 2 or 3 Q1 wins. They finished the season with a NET OF 34 and and RPI of 78.

Michigan also finished tied for 5th in the conference with 1 or 2 Q1 wins. They had an 18-16 record with a a NET of 61 and an RPI of 85. They did not get into the NCAA tourney.

 

For us to get in we will have to have at least 2-3 Q1 wins and a conference record of 11-9 or better, which means we will need at least 21+ total wins. Right now our NET is at 57 and so we have some work to do. Our RPI is 31 which is good, however that will drop a lot as the conference season proceeds. That South Carolina State game is going to set our NET back. 

 

Looking closer at last season we were much closer than I originally thought. Flip that OT loss to Purdue, the St John's game along with Memphis and we would have been a bubble team. Those were all games when we were at full strength. That would have given us 2 more Q1 wins.

 

For this season I'm going to look at our conference games as blocks of games. I'll start a separate thread about this.

huskerkid21

huskerkid21

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ron Mexico said:

 

 

For us to get in we will have to have at least 2-3 Q1 wins and a conference record of 11-9 or better, which means we will need at least 21+ total wins. Right now our NET is at 57 and so we have some work to do. Our RPI is 31 which is good, however that will drop a lot as the conference season proceeds. That South Carolina State game is going to set our NET back. 

 

Looking closer at last season we were much closer than I originally thought. Flip that OT loss to Purdue, the St John's game along with Memphis and we would have been a bubble team. Those were all games when we were at full strength. That would have given us 2 more Q1 wins.

 

For this season I'm going to look at our conference games as blocks of games. I'll start a separate thread about this.

Agree with it all other than SCSU setting our NET back, if we go out and do what needs to be done and win by 20+ we should move up at least a couple spots IMO

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