KenPom 2023-2024 KenPom Rankings Thread

[HuskerFever]

55 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

Lunardi had a good thread about the idea that the Big 12 is gaming the system

 

 

 

Ding ding ding. We have a winner.

 

Just need to make sure we're not up for question of being that bubble team. And we can do that with these remaining games.

 

 

[AuroranHusker]

12-8 in the Big Ten and 22-9 overall with the chance to get something more in Minneapolis will push NU over the top. No worries about being "bubblicious" this year, methinks. But, gotta win these last 2 B1G games & go from there. Onward & upward. GBR

 

[hskr4life]

 

[throwback]

51 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

 

Going to need to extend the graph waaaaay farther left for the "W", because March didn't start any better.

[49r]

FAU did not beat Tulane by enough today and they fall below us now.  We're up to #37.

[49r]

Now up to #36 and just 0.01 away from #35

[hskr4life]

Maybe we should keep doing this “not playing thing” more often lol

[49r]

Thanks Indiana!  Up to #35 now.

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

12 minutes ago, 49r said:

Thanks Indiana!  Up to #35 now.

Must be another reason because Indiana Maryland game hasn’t been accounted for yet.

[49r]

Up to #34 now...barely.

[49r]

Big jump for Stony Brook, and Duquesne is so very close to double digits.  Iowa and Maryland swap spots as do Rutgers and Penn State.  Also, how interesting is it that once a team enters about the top 30 or so just how "sticky" the ranking gets?  Up or down movement is much more difficult for those teams.

 

Ken's prediction goes back to 22-9 (12-8).  Same for Torvik.  KP's odds of winning the game at Michigan:

• Michigan - 69%

Here we go.

 

---

 

 

KenPom rankings as of 3-04-24

=======================

 

B1G (11-8):
3. Purdue - W
12. Illinois - L
20. Michigan State - W
23. Wisconsin - L, W
34. Nebraska

46. Northwestern - W, L

49. Iowa - L
50. Maryland - L
53. Ohio State - W, L
61. Minnesota - L, W

90. Penn State - W

91. Rutgers - L, W

95. Indiana - W, W

125. Michigan - W

 

Non-Conference (10-1):
355. Lindenwood - W

341. Florida A&M - W

---Cornhusker Classic---
228. Rider - W
184. Stony Brook - W

---Sanford Pentagon---
156. Oregon State - W

 

---Cornhusker Classic---

100. Duquesne - W

 

227. Cal State Fullerton - W

11. Creighton - L
68. @Kansas State - W
238. North Dakota - W

293. South Carolina State - W

[doc1394]

#28 on T-Rank

[HuskerActuary]

21 hours ago, 49r said:

Also, how interesting is it that once a team enters about the top 30 or so just how "sticky" the ranking gets?  Up or down movement is much more difficult for those teams.

Yeah, this is a result of there being fewer elite teams and fewer really bad teams compared to lots of teams in the middle. Below is an illustration of the average difference in KenPom efficiency from one team to the next, with the X-axis representing their KenPom rank, and using a 10-team rolling average. For teams ranked, say, #20 - #300, there will be more movement from game to game because those teams' efficiency margins are closer to each other.

 

[49r]

Interesting to see the little spikes around #65, #95, #130, #160 and again towards the bottom, I wonder if that correlates to the tops and bottoms of the mid-major conferences to a degree?

[AuroranHusker]

56 minutes ago, 49r said:

Interesting to see the little spikes around #65, #95, #130, #160 and again towards the bottom, I wonder if that correlates to the tops and bottoms of the mid-major conferences to a degree?

 

That is an intriguing observation. It seems to make sense, since there are 33 Div. 1 conferences and every conference has a relatively 'elite' program in it as well as a bottom-feeder in it.

 

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

K-State down to 78 in NET. Back to Q2.

 

Our Q1 record of 3-7 isn’t pretty. It’d be really nice if KSU could jump back in. Though with only a home game vs Iowa State remaining, I don’t anticipate them winning and doing so. Boy they’ve been a frustrating follow the last six weeks.

 

Also if Minnesota jumps one more spot it becomes 3-8. Although that would bump a Q3 win up to Q2 as well, so maybe a good tradeoff. I’d like to see our Maryland loss drop to Q2.

[Vinny]

47 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

K-State down to 78 in NET. Back to Q2.

 

Our Q1 record of 3-7 isn’t pretty. It’d be really nice if KSU could jump back in. Though with only a home game vs Iowa State remaining, I don’t anticipate them winning and doing so. Boy they’ve been a frustrating follow the last six weeks.

 

Also if Minnesota jumps one more spot it becomes 3-8. Although that would bump a Q3 win up to Q2 as well, so maybe a good tradeoff. I’d like to see our Maryland loss drop to Q2.

Alabama is 4-9 in Q1 and projected as a three seed. If we played three more Q1 games, you think we’d win one?

[Norm Peterson]

52 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

K-State down to 78 in NET. Back to Q2.

 

Our Q1 record of 3-7 isn’t pretty. It’d be really nice if KSU could jump back in. Though with only a home game vs Iowa State remaining, I don’t anticipate them winning and doing so. Boy they’ve been a frustrating follow the last six weeks.

 

Also if Minnesota jumps one more spot it becomes 3-8. Although that would bump a Q3 win up to Q2 as well, so maybe a good tradeoff. I’d like to see our Maryland loss drop to Q2.

 

They still have a chance to make some noise in the Big 12 tournament. 

[millerhusker]

16 minutes ago, Vinny said:

Alabama is 4-9 in Q1 and projected as a three seed. If we played three more Q1 games, you think we’d win one?

Frustrating. They played a very tough non-con schedule. Clemson, Creighton, Arizona, Ohio State, Purdue. But they lost every single one of those games. And they've been blown out multiple times in league play. 

[Norm Peterson]

11 minutes ago, millerhusker said:

Frustrating. They played a very tough non-con schedule. Clemson, Creighton, Arizona, Ohio State, Purdue. But they lost every single one of those games. And they've been blown out multiple times in league play. 

 

Well, but they have that big win over (checks notes) Mercer.

[Vinny]

I think it’s a good example of how clustered teams really are, how seeding can be difficult, and why there can be arguments to move teams up and down as needed. And also why I wouldn’t be afraid of playing many teams that will end up with higher seeds than we do. 

[hskr4life]

Predictive metrics are so weird.  Wake Forest has lost 3 in a row to Notre Dame, VA Tech, and Ga Tech and is still ahead of us in Pom and BPI.  We dropped 2 spots in BPI because (checks notes) Va Tech and Northwestern hopped us?

[royalfan]

1 hour ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

K-State down to 78 in NET. Back to Q2.

 

Our Q1 record of 3-7 isn’t pretty. It’d be really nice if KSU could jump back in. Though with only a home game vs Iowa State remaining, I don’t anticipate them winning and doing so. Boy they’ve been a frustrating follow the last six weeks.

 

Also if Minnesota jumps one more spot it becomes 3-8. Although that would bump a Q3 win up to Q2 as well, so maybe a good tradeoff. I’d like to see our Maryland loss drop to Q2.

While I understand your fascination of the perception of the q1 rank, I am confident that it is wrong.  In addition to it simply making sense that a q1 loss is better than a q2 loss, there is also the dynamic that if minny drops down then someone else is then up a quadrant.  This gives other bubble teams and teams we are competing against for seeding more q1 wins.  

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

17 minutes ago, royalfan said:

While I understand your fascination of the perception of the q1 rank, I am confident that it is wrong.  In addition to it simply making sense that a q1 loss is better than a q2 loss, there is also the dynamic that if minny drops down then someone else is then up a quadrant.  This gives other bubble teams and teams we are competing against for seeding more q1 wins.  

I don’t mean to over-inflate my perceived importance of it. It’s definitely just a minor detail.

 

But would I rather our quads be 3-7 and 4-2 instead of 3-8 and 4-1? Yeah, I do think the former looks better, as illogical as it may be. Decision making doesn’t always follow sound logic. They are analyzing over 50 teams, so you want good “advertising” on your resume that pops. The Q1 record pops.

 

Fair point on allowing another team’s win to enter Q1 if Maryland were to drop out. Though the probability that another bubble team has that exact win that slides back in there isn’t high.

[hskr4life]

FWIW… Minny is at 76, but UNLV is now at 77.  That does involve a lot of bubble teams and would move a lot of Q2/Q3 games to Q1/Q2 for bubble teams.

 

KSU, Ole Miss, and Samford round out the rest of 76-80.