KenPom 2019-2020 KenPom Rankings Thread

[49r]

So here we are, October 1st and it's time once again to start the annual KenPom Rankings Thread.  By now I'd imagine most of you know how this works.  We'll start off the year with the final rankings of last season for each team in the Big Ten and each non-conference team on our schedule.  Also included will be the 2018 preseason rankings (in parenthesis) as well as 2019 NCAA Tournament teams color coded in red and 2019 NIT Tournament teams color coded in blue.

 

Pomeroy's preseason rankings won't be out for a few more weeks, but just for reference, Bart Torvik does and he has us entering the 19-20 season at #95.  13th in the Big Ten.  I'd expect Pomeroy's number for us look pretty similar.  Bad thing too is our non-con schedule won't be doing us any favors so even if we win 9 of our 11 non con games we probably won't move up too much.

 

Finally, if you notice any errors please let me know.  I think I got everything updated right here but I've been pretty distracted at work.  Also, just as I say every year, don't forget to click here to see all the previous years' KenPom threads (I highly recommend going back through them, they're always fun to read).  Here we go!

 

 

---

 

 

KenPom rankings as of 4-08-19

=========================

 

B1G (0-0):

(13) -> 3. Michigan State Final Four

(24) -> 6. Michigan S16

(18) -> 9. Purdue E8

(20) -> 16. Wisconsin R68

(30) -> 24. Maryland R32

(35) -> 37. Iowa R32

(32) -> 43. Penn State

(41) -> 44. Ohio State R32

(60) -> 46. Minnesota R32

(38) -> 47. Nebraska 2nd RD

(28) -> 52. Indiana 3rd RD

(58) -> 74. Northwestern

(149) -> 78. Rutgers

(85) -> 84. Illinois

 

Non-Conference (0-0):

322. UC Riverside

273. Southern Utah

92. South Dakota State 1st RD

335. Southern

 

---Cayman Islands Classic---

207. Washington State

156. / 113. George Mason / Old Dominion R68

180. / 53. / 131. / 99. Colorado State / New Mexico State R68 / Loyola 1st RD / South Florida

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 

115. @Georgia Tech

 

55. @Creighton 3rd RD

271. North Dakota

287. Texas A&M Corpus Christi

Edited October 2, 2019 by 49r

[49r]

2020 T-Rank College Basketball Projections

 

RK	TEAM	CONF	REC	ADJOE	ADJDE	BARTHAG	PROJ. REC		RET MINS	RPMS	NC SOS
2	Michigan St.	B10	0-0	120.9 1	93.1 10	.9529	23-6	15-5	65.6%	64.4%	19 %
7	Purdue	B10	0-0	117.2 5	95.3 35	.9149	21-9	13-7	53.1%	48.5%	24 %
8	Maryland	B10	0-0	115.5 14	94.1 22	.9136	20-9	12-8	83.3%	80.7%	17 %
14	Illinois	B10	0-0	117.0 7	96.3 51	.9033	20-10	12-8	81.6%	85.0%	17 %
15	Ohio St.	B10	0-0	113.8 22	94.0 20	.9006	21-10	12-8	68.8%	66.8%	22 %
20	Penn St.	B10	0-0	112.6 35	93.6 15	.8926	20-10	12-8	70.4%	67.3%	14 %
26	Wisconsin	B10	0-0	110.3 59	92.5 7	.8821	18-12	11-9	69.7%	58.9%	21 %
31	Michigan	B10	0-0	110.3 58	93.3 12	.8727	17-12	10-10	54.2%	47.3%	19 %
48	Rutgers	B10	0-0	109.9 61	95.5 36	.8339	18-13	9-11	71.4%	71.9%	10 %
53	Iowa	B10	0-0	116.4 10	101.5 146	.8281	16-14	9-11	60.8%	56.2%	19 %
56	Indiana	B10	0-0	109.3 74	95.6 37	.8231	17-14	9-11	59.0%	53.7%	13 %
82	Minnesota	B10	0-0	106.8 98	97.5 71	.7409	12-17	7-13	39.9%	32.1%	19 %
95	Nebraska	B10	0-0	106.4 105	99.4 106	.6859	12-17	6-14	4.1%	2.8%	14 %
107	Northwestern	B10	0-0	100.0 232	94.8 29	.6475	11-18	5-15	44.8%	41.5%	12 %

[49r]

#95 - Nebraska (0-0)

 

Fred Hoiberg • Big Ten Conference (0-0)

Tourney Results • Teamcast • Team History

Similar Resumés • Similar Profiles • Team View

 

 

Top 10 Projected Contributors

 

 

PLAYER	YR	HT	PRPG!	MIN%	ORTG	USAGE	PPG	RPG	APG
Cam Mack	Jr	6-2	3.3	80	105	23	14.2	3.8	2.4
Jervay Green	Jr	6-3	2.9	75	106	21	12.4	3.8	2.1
Dachon Burke	Jr	6-4	2.6	67	102	24	10.8	4.3	1.9
Haanif Cheatham	Sr	6-5	2	65	102	20	9.3	3.5	1.6
Matej Kavas	Sr	6-8	2.5	63	115	15	7.3	4.1	1
Yvan Ouedraogo	Fr	6-8	1.2	52	99	19	5.4	4.1	0.9
Samari Curtis	Fr	6-4	0.8	34	99	19	3.7	2.2	1.1
Thorir Thorbjarnarson	Jr	6-6	0.6	31	101	16	2.6	2.5	1.3
Akol Arop	Fr	6-5	0.5	20	100	18	2.4	1.8	0.6
Kevin Cross	Fr	6-8	0.3	13	100	17	1.9	0.4	0
Please report errors/omissions/wackiness

 

Tue 11-05

H

250 (IV)

UC Riverside

-13.6, 76-63

90%

.04

Sat 11-09

H

172 (III)

Southern Utah

-9.6, 79-69

82%

.09

Fri 11-15

H

322 (IV)

South Dakota St.

-19.8, 84-64

96%

.02

Fri 11-22

H

350 (IV)

Southern

-24.4, 82-58

98%

.01

Mon 11-25

N

194 (IV)

Washington St.

-7.3, 79-72

75%

.12

Wed 12-04

A

63 (II)

Georgia Tech

+8.4, 76-67

20%

.62

Sat 12-07

A

34 (I-A)

Creighton

+11.2, 80-69

15%

.70

Fri 12-13

A

56 (I)

•

Indiana

+8.7, 76-67

20%

.63

Sun 12-15

H

7 (I-A)

•

Purdue

+6, 75-69

28%

.52

Sat 12-21

H

221 (IV)

North Dakota

-12.4, 80-67

88%

.06

Sat 12-28

H

244 (IV)

Texas A&M Corpus Chris

-12.7, 75-62

89%

.05

Fri 1-03

H

48 (II)

•

Rutgers

+1.2, 72-71

45%

.34

Tue 1-07

H

53 (II)

•

Iowa

+1, 79-78

46%

.33

Sat 1-11

A

107 (III)

•

Northwestern

+2.7, 68-65

38%

.40

Tue 1-14

A

15 (I-A)

•

Ohio St.

+12.8, 78-65

11%

.77

Sat 1-18

H

56 (II)

•

Indiana

+0.7, 72-71

47%

.32

Tue 1-21

A

26 (I-A)

•

Wisconsin

+11, 73-62

13%

.73

Sat 1-25

A

48 (I)

•

Rutgers

+9.2, 77-67

19%

.65

Tue 1-28

H

31 (II)

•

Michigan

+3, 70-67

38%

.41

Sat 2-01

H

20 (I)

•

Penn St.

+4.3, 74-70

33%

.46

Sat 2-08

A

53 (I)

•

Iowa

+9.8, 83-73

19%

.64

Tue 2-11

A

8 (I-A)

•

Maryland

+13.9, 79-65

10%

.80

Sat 2-15

H

26 (II)

•

Wisconsin

+3.4, 69-66

36%

.43

Thu 2-20

H

2 (I-A)

•

Michigan St.

+10.2, 79-69

17%

.67

Mon 2-24

A

14 (I-A)

•

Illinois

+14.1, 85-71

11%

.77

Thu 2-27

H

15 (I)

•

Ohio St.

+4.8, 73-68

31%

.48

Sun 3-01

H

107 (III)

•

Northwestern

-4.8, 69-65

69%

.16

Thu 3-05

A

31 (I)

•

Michigan

+10.6, 74-63

14%

.72

Sun 3-08

A

82 (II)

•

Minnesota

+5.7, 74-69

29%

.51

Projected Record: 12-17 (6-14)

[Norm Peterson]

I take that to mean we are favored in only one league game this year? We're not even favored at home against Rutgers?

 

I say nonsense. Yeah, we don't have size. That's a problem.  But, from what I've seen, we still have a pretty solid back court.  And, in some respects, that backcourt is pretty exceptional.  We're going to put up points.  And, as a result, we're going to have a puncher's chance in almost every game.

[49r]

I wouldn't put a lot of weight into those until about the first of January, @Norm Peterson

 

But you know that.  Right now it's just about finding stuff to talk about while we wait for the real action to begin!

 

So, to honor that I'll just go ahead and add "DAMN YOU BART TORVIK!! YOU KNOW NOTHING!!"  

[49r]

Pomeroy released his preseason rankings overnight.  So let's see how things look.

 

As in the OP of the thread there will be some special formatting rules for this post.  I've included the 2019 final rankings (in parenthesis) as well as 2019 NCAA Tournament teams color coded in red and 2019 NIT Tournament teams color coded in blue.  Going forward I will lose the previous rankings for Big Ten teams as well as the round each tournament team finished in.  I think I will lose the color coding as well for the regular season updates unless people think it's useful.  Let me know in comments.

 

Finally, some of my own comments.  The biggest jumps made on the offseason by Big Ten schools include Ohio State (+33) and Illinois (+49).  Biggest drops come from Wisconsin (-29), Minnesota (-35) and Nebraska (-49).  In the non-con side the biggest jumps come from UC Riverside (+36), Washington State (+44), Loyola (+32) and Georgia Tech (+49).  Biggest non-con drops are South Dakota State (-116) and Old Dominion (-32).  I'm a little surprised that Minnesota dropped as far as they did.  I'm guessing the Amir Coffey injury factored into that.

 

Ken right now predicts a final record for Nebraska of 12-17 (5-15) - keep in mind he isn't including the second and third round games Cayman Islands games yet.  Barring injuries I'd expect us to do slightly better, probably right around the .500 mark.

 

 

---

 

 

KenPom rankings as of 10-20-19

==========================

 

B1G (0-0):

(3) -> 1. Michigan State Final Four

(9) -> 7. Purdue E8

(44) -> 11. Ohio State R32

(24) -> 16. Maryland R32

(6) -> 21. Michigan S16

(52) -> 34. Indiana 3rd RD

(84) -> 35. Illinois

(37) -> 41. Iowa R32

(43) -> 43. Penn State

(16) -> 45. Wisconsin R68

(78) -> 63. Rutgers

(46) -> 81. Minnesota R32

(74) -> 87. Northwestern

(47) -> 96. Nebraska 2nd RD

 

Non-Conference (0-0):

286. UC Riverside

233. Southern Utah

208. South Dakota State 1st RD

343. Southern

 

---Cayman Islands Classic---

163. Washington State

155. / 145. George Mason / Old Dominion R68

159. / 64. / 99. / 76. Colorado State / New Mexico State R68 / Loyola 1st RD / South Florida

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 

66. @Georgia Tech

 

36. @Creighton 3rd RD

264. North Dakota

284. Texas A&M Corpus Christi

[49r]

2020 Schedule

Game Plan | Opponent Tracker

Date	Rk	Opponent		Result			Location	Record	Conf
Tue Nov 5		286	UC Riverside	W, 79-64	71	92%	Home
Sat Nov 9		233	Southern Utah	W, 83-70	76	87%	Home
Fri Nov 15		208	South Dakota St.	W, 83-71	75	85%	Home
Fri Nov 22		343	Southern	W, 84-61	73	98%	Home
Mon Nov 25		163	Washington St.	W, 77-72	73	68%	Neutral
Wed Dec 4		66	Georgia Tech	L, 77-70	74	25%	Away
Sat Dec 7		36	Creighton	L, 83-72	75	16%	Away
Fri Dec 13		34	Indiana	L, 79-68	73	16%	Away		×
Sun Dec 15		7	Purdue	L, 78-69	73	20%	Home		×
Sat Dec 21		264	North Dakota	W, 82-68	75	91%	Home
Sun Dec 29		284	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	W, 79-63	73	92%	Home
Fri Jan 3		63	Rutgers	L, 74-73	74	47%	Home		×
Tue Jan 7		41	Iowa	L, 81-77	75	38%	Home		×
Sat Jan 11		87	Northwestern	L, 73-69	72	34%	Away		×
Tue Jan 14		11	Ohio St.	L, 79-65	73	10%	Away		×
Sat Jan 18		34	Indiana	L, 76-72	73	36%	Home		×
Tue Jan 21		45	Wisconsin	L, 76-66	71	19%	Away		×
Sat Jan 25		63	Rutgers	L, 77-69	74	24%	Away		×
Tue Jan 28		21	Michigan	L, 75-70	73	32%	Home		×
Sat Feb 1		43	Penn St.	L, 76-73	74	40%	Home		×
Sat Feb 8		41	Iowa	L, 84-74	75	17%	Away		×
Tue Feb 11		16	Maryland	L, 81-68	73	12%	Away		×
Sat Feb 15		45	Wisconsin	L, 72-70	71	41%	Home		×
Thu Feb 20		1	Michigan St.	L, 82-68	73	11%	Home		×
Mon Feb 24		35	Illinois	L, 83-72	75	16%	Away		×
Thu Feb 27		11	Ohio St.	L, 76-69	73	27%	Home		×
Sun Mar 1		87	Northwestern	W, 72-70	72	59%	Home		×
Thu Mar 5		21	Michigan	L, 79-67	73	14%	Away		×
Sun Mar 8		81	Minnesota	L, 77-72	74	32%	Away		×
Projected record:								12-17	5-15
Chance of unbeaten record:								0.00%	0.00%
Chance of winless record:								0.00%	0.1%

 

[49r]

Ranking of conferences by AdjEM of team that's expected to go .500 in conference play

Conference		Rating	Conference		Rating
1	Big 12 Conference	+16.93	17	Sun Belt Conference	-2.57
2	Big East Conference	+16.14	18	Horizon League	-3.01
3	Big Ten Conference	+15.97	19	Patriot League	-4.16
4	Atlantic Coast Conference	+15.93	20	Colonial Athletic Association	-4.20
5	Southeastern Conference	+14.96	21	Summit League	-4.60
6	Pac 12 Conference	+9.68	22	Big West Conference	-5.53
7	American Athletic Conference	+8.85	23	Atlantic Sun Conference	-5.78
8	West Coast Conference	+4.12	24	America East Conference	-7.43
9	Atlantic 10 Conference	+3.05	25	Ohio Valley Conference	-7.59
10	Mountain West Conference	+2.38	26	Big South Conference	-7.86
11	Mid American Conference	+1.05	27	Big Sky Conference	-8.23
12	Ivy League	+0.12	28	Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference	-8.44
13	Missouri Valley Conference	-0.21	29	Northeast Conference	-10.09
14	Conference USA	-0.22	30	Southland Conference	-11.30
15	Southern Conference	-0.65	31	Southwestern Athletic Conference	-15.52
16	Western Athletic Conference	-1.56	32	Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference	-16.63

[49r]

...and finally, I just wanted to make sure I included Wichita State.  They are ranked #62 to start the season.  One spot ahead of Rutgers.

[Handy Johnson]

This time last year I had every reason to think we were going to win the B1G. It’s fun to crunch the numbers & play the “what if” game, but NONE of us, the so-called experts or your average Joe-Bag-of- Donuts know how this will play out. I still think we’ll be better than expected & finish somewhere in the 6-10 range...

[jimmykc]

Am I interpreting this correctly? The "tracker" thinks we will go 1-19 in the conference? Really?

[millerhusker]

37 minutes ago, jimmykc said:

Am I interpreting this correctly? The "tracker" thinks we will go 1-19 in the conference? Really?

Hoiberg’s first Iowa State team got last in the Big 12, which was probably not as strong of a conference top to bottom as the Big Ten is now. That team had eventual conference POY Melvin Ejim, senior point guard Diante Garrett, who played a couple years in the NBA, and a couple other upperclassmen who were contributors/starters in the prior few seasons. 

 

I think we’ll win more than 1 conference game, but seeing how nearly our entire roster was put together in about 6 weeks this offseason (and only 3 of our players have ever played in a power 5 conference basketball game), I’d expect the all the preseason analytics to say Northwestern is the only team we can beat.

Edited October 20, 2019 by millerhusker

[49r]

I guess this is where we say "DAMN YOU KEN POMEROY!! YOU KNOW NOTHING!!"

 

 

 

 

 

(but if you look closely...at the bottom of the schedule, just like the Torvik predictions earlier, Pomeroy says right now it looks like we'll go 5-15 in league play)

[jimmykc]

Does Ken add poorly or pick against his own analytics?

[49r]

Just because a team only has, say, a 43% chance of winning a game doesn't mean they will 100% lose it.

 

0-20 isn't an outcome that is impossible.  Neither is 20-0.  It's just that 5-15, according to KenPom right now, is the most likely scenario.

[Dead Dog Alley]

2 hours ago, jimmykc said:

Am I interpreting this correctly? The "tracker" thinks we will go 1-19 in the conference? Really?

 

It projects us as 5-15, not 1-19.  But we are actually favored only in one game.  The probability to win in each game predicts 4 upsets somewhere along the line.

 

To clarify how it works:  if by some chance you are given a 49% chance to win every single conference game, then if you went game by game it would tell you 0-20, but you would be expected to go 9-11 or 10-10.  If you are given a 51% chance in every single game, then game by game results would predict 20-0, but you'd be expected to go 10-10 or 11-9.

[jimmykc]

And here's another one for you. The probability that I will be confused by this explanation=100%. But thanks for trying.  

[49r]

Don't worry about it @jimmykc Jake Sorensen and Steve Sipple were talking about it this morning on 93.7 and it's obvious neither one of them understands how it works either.

[AuroranHusker]

20 hours ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

 

It projects us as 5-15, not 1-19.  But we are actually favored only in one game.  The probability to win in each game predicts 4 upsets somewhere along the line.

 

To clarify how it works:  if by some chance you are given a 49% chance to win every single conference game, then if you went game by game it would tell you 0-20, but you would be expected to go 9-11 or 10-10.  If you are given a 51% chance in every single game, then game by game results would predict 20-0, but you'd be expected to go 10-10 or 11-9.

 

That's why you play the games. Did anyone really think Illini football would defeat Wisc. besides Lovie Smith?!

 

 

[hskr4life]

Also a good note that KenPom predicted us 18-12 last  year with a 10-10 B1G record.  We ended up 16-15, 6-14.  Overall ended up at 19-17.

[49r]

Pomeroy ranked us at #104 at the start of 2017-18.  The concern at the time was we were losing Tai Webster and that would negatively affect us.

 

 

We won 22 games.

[hhcmatt]

Check out the projected Tempo of the team and contrast it with the last 20+ years of Nebraska Basketball.

Computers are projecting baseline to baseline!

 

 

[49r]

8 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

Check out the projected Tempo of the team and contrast it with the last 20+ years of Nebraska Basketball.

Computers are projecting baseline to baseline!

 

 

Also projecting the fastest tempo in Hoiberg's career:

 

Coaching Résumé for Fred Hoiberg 

								Offense										Defense
	Team		Conf	W-L	AdjT	AdjO	AdjD	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTR	2P%	3P%	FT%	3PA%	A%	APL	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTR	2P%	3P%	Blk%	3PA%	A%	APL	2FP%
2020	96	Nebraska	B10	0-0 0-0	74.9 20	103.6 115	97.1 92	0.0 1	100.0 1	0.0 1	0.0 1	0.0 1	0.0 1	0.0 1	0.0 1	0.0 1	0.0 1	200.0 1	0.0 1	100.0 1	200.0 1	100.0 1	100.0 1	0.0 1	100.0 1	100.0 1	0.0 1	0.0 1
2015	16	Iowa St. 3 R1	B12	25-9 12-6	69.6 10	119.0 12	97.5 59	54.3 22	15.8 18	28.3 272	36.5 178	54.3 11	36.2 84	69.6 159	36.8 104	58.1 66	14.6 2	47.6 104	18.5 210	29.6 105	24.0 3	45.2 79	34.7 193	9.7 161	34.4 177	55.7 250	19.6 329	15.4 197
2014	20	Iowa St. 3 S16	B12	28-8 11-7	70.2 12	118.9 9	97.8 55	54.2 19	14.5 8	28.8 262	36.4 277	54.4 9	35.8 100	69.3 199	37.5 65	62.4 10	15.2 8	47.7 95	15.9 310	28.5 44	30.7 17	46.0 79	34.1 153	7.0 283	33.5 196	49.9 115	18.4 263	17.6 177
2013	30	Iowa St. 10 R2	B12	23-12 11-7	68.3 30	117.5 8	99.8 123	53.8 18	18.5 90	34.2 88	33.0 254	51.9 28	37.4 34	73.1 57	43.8 8	58.2 57	15.8 12	48.0 149	18.6 249	28.5 55	32.7 91	48.8 220	31.1 45	7.0 274	33.3 186	53.8 175	18.2 178	10.3 267
2012	26	Iowa St. 8 R2	B12	23-11 12-6	65.8 128	113.9 24	97.2 66	52.6 43	18.2 59	32.2 154	38.7 106	50.3 75	37.3 54	68.8 193	41.6 18	57.1 80	16.9 62	48.6 159	17.3 310	26.0 18	26.5 10	49.9 248	30.6 25	7.1 254	31.9 129	51.9 126	18.6 259	5.2 321
2011	81	Iowa St.	B12	16-16 3-13	69.0 34	108.1 87	99.4 89	50.6 99	17.4 37	28.4 243	26.4 344	47.8 175	36.8 61	72.1 87	37.5 63	55.2 129	15.9 20	47.6 104	20.4 151	31.5 217	29.2 27	46.3 106	33.6 123	9.0 168	33.0 188	53.7 164	17.8 167	30.2 87

[hhcmatt]

15 minutes ago, 49r said:

Also projecting the fastest tempo in Hoiberg's career:

 

I believe that is a reflection of how much the speed of the game has increased since Hoiberg last coached.  The shot clock went from 35 to 30 starting at the 2015-16 season and that has sped up the game.

[AuroranHusker]

2 hours ago, hhcmatt said:

Check out the projected Tempo of the team and contrast it with the last 20+ years of Nebraska Basketball.

Computers are projecting baseline to baseline!

 

 

 

 

TOP 20 PACE, BABY !