Next 6 Games

[49r]

Okay, so this topic was pretty decent conversation last year (I believe we broke it down into chunks of 5) and there are 18 games left, 3 six game mini seasons if you will.

 

The @The_nebrasketball_podcast touched on it a bit in their latest episode so I thought I'd bring the conversation to the board.  What do you think we should expect/hope to see in these next 6 games?  Here's how it breaks down on KenPom:

 

Wed Jan 2		31	Maryland	L, 71-70	66	48%	Away		×
Sun Jan 6		41	Iowa	W, 74-73	68	54%	Away		×
Thu Jan 10		45	Penn St.	W, 71-62	65	78%	Home		×
Mon Jan 14		25	Indiana	L, 72-70	68	44%	Away		×
Thu Jan 17		5	Michigan St.	W, 75-74	69	53%	Home		×
Mon Jan 21		110	Rutgers	W, 68-62	65	72%	Away		×

 

Lots of close games coming up it looks like.  Could go from 2-4 to 4-2 most likely.  Would you be happy to see 3-3 in the next 6 games?

Edited December 31, 2018 by 49r

[nebrasketball10]

I haven’t analyzed our whole schedule, but if we’re going to be a top 4 B1G team, doesn’t it have to be 4-2? Could we afford to go the first “half” of conference play .500?

[kleitus]

Imo...

 

3-3 keeps us in 5-7 seed range

 

4-2 would put us in extremely good ncaa position.  This conference is so strong we will be in the driver's seat for seeding to an extent.

 

5-1 or better and we are legit talking regular season b1g title possibilities and 1-3 ncaa seed

 

Just my opinion.

 

Depends on how you look at it for happy/sad, but as far as I'm concerned this is my opinion (pardon my french... or don't lol):

 

[Norm Peterson]

Four out of every six.  I want to see us win 2/3 of our games from now to the Big Ten tournament.

Edited December 31, 2018 by Norm Peterson

[kleitus]

2 minutes ago, nebrasketball10 said:

I haven’t analyzed our whole schedule, but if we’re going to be a top 4 B1G team, doesn’t it have to be 4-2? Could we afford to go the first “half” of conference play .500?

 

Next six games after this are relatively easy in a monster conference.

 

Hard parts of our schedule are beginning and end.

 

This stretch... we need to win games but 3-3 won't kill it.

[The Polish Rifle]

If we can take advantage of the empty arenas for holiday break and get one at Maryland or at Iowa, that would be amazing...4-2 run starts with a dub on the road. 

[uneblinstu]

3-3 is my starting point. Split the road games. Take care of business vs. PSU, big time opportunity vs. MSU. 4-2 isn't crazy, I don't think.

[Norm Peterson]

If you divide the rest of the regular season into 3 sets of 6 games, my hope is that we'd win 4 out of each group of 6.  That would get us to 13 conference wins. I think we could potentially do better (could also do worse) but 13 wins in this conference this year would get us a good seed in the NCAA tourney rather than having to worry about whether we did enough to get into the dance.

 

You look at those next 3 groups of six and tell me you cannot find 4 wins in each group.  I think the first set is the toughest, actually.

Edited December 31, 2018 by Norm Peterson

[PimpMario]

3-3 would make me happy.  2-4 seems doable but only because Rutgers was included.

[kleitus]

I agree norm... 

 

If I had to guess this 6 it would be 4-2... next six though we could easily go 5-1 or 6-0.

 

That's why I said 5-1 or better and we are looking at an extremely high ncaa seed.

[uneblinstu]

1 minute ago, PimpMario said:

3-3 would make me happy.  2-4 seems doable but only because Rutgers was included.

2-4 would be massively disappointing.

[Norm Peterson]

I think he meant 4-2.

[uneblinstu]

4 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

If you divide the rest of the regular season into 3 sets of 6 games, my hope is that we'd win 4 out of each group of 6.  That would get us to 13 conference wins. I think we could potentially do better (could also do worse) but 13 wins in this conference this year would get us a good seed in the NCAA tourney rather than having to worry about whether we did enough to get into the dance.

 

You look at those next 3 groups of six and tell me you cannot find 4 wins in each group.  I think the first set is the toughest, actually.

That middle section is where this team should make it's hay.

[Norm Peterson]

We have 3 really tough road games in the next six.  We need to win at least one of them and then win the other 3.

[hskr4life]

I look at the schedule and there isn’t a game on there that we don’t have a legitimate chance to win.

 

We don’t need a “ball to bounce our way.”

 

We don’t need a “little luck.”

 

We don’t need the other team to “have an off night.”

 

We just need to play our game.

[uneblinstu]

4 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

I look at the schedule and there isn’t a game on there that we don’t have a legitimate chance to win.

 

We don’t need a “ball to bounce our way.”

 

We don’t need a “little luck.”

 

We don’t need the other team to “have an off night.”

 

We just need to play our game.

I think the only two games I feel that way about are the last two road games in Michigan.

[rr52]

Right now I am just focusing on Maryland. Just try to keep going 1-0.

[uneblinstu]

5 minutes ago, rr52 said:

Right now I am just focusing on Maryland. Just try to keep going 1-0.

Right, but as Norm likes to say, we don't actually play the games. We can look ahead and at other factors. The team and coaches are the ones that can't look ahead. (That's not Normie's exact quote, but it's something similar to that, I think.)

[HuskerActuary]

To minimize the potential downside of this season, I think I'd lock in the following six-game stretches to close the season if given the chance right now: 3-3, 4-2, 3-3. So we'd be 21-10 (11-9) heading into the Big Ten Tournament. We'd still be a 5 or 6 seed, given this year's schedule and the help of the metrics from our large margin of victories. I guess I'm just risk-averse!

[Handy Johnson]

I'd say Indiana and Michigan St are your 50/50 games, the rest of em I'd lean heavily towards a "W"

[Huskerpapa]

I want to focus upon, and then win the next game up on the schedule.  Meaning, I want us to take care of Maryland.  That is the most important game on our schedule.  Then, once that game is in the bank, we worry about the next game on the schedule.

 

We have a mature team.  I am betting that is the mindset of this team.

[49r]

37 minutes ago, HuskerActuary said:

To minimize the potential downside of this season, I think I'd lock in the following six-game stretches to close the season if given the chance right now: 3-3, 4-2, 3-3. So we'd be 21-10 (11-9) heading into the Big Ten Tournament. We'd still be a 5 or 6 seed, given this year's schedule and the help of the metrics from our large margin of victories. I guess I'm just risk-averse!

 

I'm actually right there with you.  Might be able to flip the second 6 to 5-1, but I'd be pretty stoked about 11-9.

[hskr4life]

The nice thing is that we have a little wiggle room thanks to our 10-2 Non-Con mark.  11-9 gets us a solid seed.  That’s only 10 more wins with 9 home games left.  We can do it.

[uneblinstu]

I think I'd be pretty disappointed in 11-9 unless something unforeseen happens.

[tcp]

 

I'd be thrilled with 3-3 over the next 6. This is a brutal opening stretch and we still have to prove ourselves on the road. We're only 1-1 in true road games, and were weak at the end of both games managing to still win one in spite of trying not to and successfully give away the other. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised by 2-4 and it wouldn't be the end of days if it happened. But 4-2 is asking a lot from the Norse Gods of Hoops Glory.