The Magic Number

[HuskerFever]

I couldn't really find a good thread for this, but it seems worthy of its own thread so we can keep track of the progress.

 

Here's the magic number according to Miles:

 

"...if the Huskers can win eight nonconference games, then go 11-9 in Big Ten play, "I think that was like a five or six seed in the NCAA, according to the tool."

 

https://journalstar.com/sports/huskers/mens-basketball/husker-hoops-crunches-the-numbers-in-building-tournament-worthy-schedule/article_2cfab612-6881-58c0-8794-ede8018eaf31.amp.html

[Nebrasketball1979]

I read this and after last season's run that fell short of the dance, I was really questioning the math.  You could easily conceive a scenario where we win the wrong 8 non-conference games (i.e. lose the important ones - say Clemson, Texas Tech/USC, Creighton or Seton Hall) and then have 0 quadrant 1 or 2 wins from our non-conference schedule at the end of the season.  Perhaps the Big 10 performs better out of conference as a whole and those 11 wins translate into several quad 1 and 2 wins.  I don't know, all of this is a guess, and the scenario Miles lays out as of right now would likely make me pretty nervous on Selection Sunday.  19-12 doesn't scream a 5 or 6 seed to me, especially if you win the wrong 19 games!!!  

[Norm Peterson]

24 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

I couldn't really find a good thread for this, but it seems worthy of its own thread so we can keep track of the progress.

 

Here's the magic number according to Miles:

 

"...if the Huskers can win eight nonconference games, then go 11-9 in Big Ten play, "I think that was like a five or six seed in the NCAA, according to the tool."

 

https://journalstar.com/sports/huskers/mens-basketball/husker-hoops-crunches-the-numbers-in-building-tournament-worthy-schedule/article_2cfab612-6881-58c0-8794-ede8018eaf31.amp.html

 

Well, there's  the "Next 10 Games" one I started about 15 minutes before yours.  

[kleitus]

Depends on the rest of the conference.

 

We need teams like illinois to beat Georgetown at home in that scenario.

 

We need an occasional michigan over villanova.

 

Things like that. 

 

Or we need to just not lose and stop inventing scenarios.  Not losing will definitely work out for us.

 

 

[hhcmatt]

It depends on who we beat and the B1G bouncing back but yeah this is conceivable though maybe tack on 1 or 2 more wins for that high of a seed.

Look at teams like Florida who went 20-11 (11-7 in conference) and earned a 6 seed or TCU who went 21-10 (9-9 in conf) for a 6 seed. 

The things these team have in common is that they both played Top 30 KenPom schedules (I assume this translates to RPI)

 

8 noncon wins

(easier ones)

1.Miss Valley St

2.SELA

3.SW Min St.

4.W. Illinois

5.Cal St Fulerton
6. Missouri St (neutral)

 

Choose two more from

Seton Hall - H

Creighton - H

Texas Tech/USC (N)

Okie St (N)

Clemson (R)

 

Look at our conference schedule and in this brand new year and everyone is good.  Illinois and Rutgers are projected to be the worst teams and we're playing both of them on the road.

It's not too far fetched to think we will have a top 15-30 SOS.

Too bad Miles gets fired after earning that 5 seed, winning a tourney game but not hitting 22 wins. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

 

[jayschool]

22 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

8 noncon wins

(easier ones)

1.Miss Valley St

2.SELA

3.SW Min St.

4.W. Illinois

5.Cal St Fulerton
6. Missouri St (neutral)

Choose two more from

Seton Hall - H

Creighton - H

Texas Tech/USC (N)

Okie St (N)

Clemson (R)

Will the SW Minnesota game count toward those eight? I'd say we need to win one more to make up for having a DII opponent.

That means 9-2 overall, and choose three more from Seton Hall, Creighton, Tech/SC, OSU, Clemson.

[hhcmatt]

2 minutes ago, jayschool said:

Will the SW Minnesota game count toward those eight?

 

Not sure as it does technically count as a win.

[jayschool]

8 minutes ago, hhcmatt said:

 

Not sure as it does technically count as a win.

I'm trying to figure that out, too, but this story says that it does count.

 

This NCAA document addresses "countable" games, and it also says that the game will count.

Edited November 14, 2018 by jayschool

[jayschool]

The real question is, how will the new NET selection criteria count the SW Minnesota game because they won't fit into the quadrant system, which still exists?

 

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

Edited November 14, 2018 by jayschool

[hhcmatt]

5 minutes ago, jayschool said:

The real question is, how will the new NET selection criteria count the SW Minnesota game because they won't fit into the quadrant system, which still exists?

 

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

 

It's a SOS hack because it's not counted anywhere except for the overall record.

The question here is whether or not it was counted by the person putting together the study for the Huskers

[AuroranHusker]

18 minutes ago, jayschool said:

Will the SW Minnesota game count toward those eight? I'd say we need to win one more to make up for having a DII opponent.

That means 9-2 overall, and choose three more from Seton Hall, Creighton, Tech/SC, OSU, Clemson.

 

I presume Miles is "counting" 8-2 with the SW MN St being a non-Div. 1 game. But, on the other hand, he didn't tell me that directly.

 

 

[PimpMario]

1 hour ago, kleitus said:

Depends on the rest of the conference.

 

We need teams like illinois to beat Georgetown at home in that scenario.

 

We need an occasional michigan over villanova.

 

Things like that. 

 

Or we need to just not lose and stop inventing scenarios.  Not losing will definitely work out for us.

 

 

 

Do you think we can go 31-0?

[hskr4life]

9 minutes ago, PimpMario said:

 

Do you think we can go 31-0?

 

As of right now... 31-0 is still on the table.  0-31 is not.  

[kleitus]

19 minutes ago, PimpMario said:

 

Do you think we can go 31-0?

 

Sure.

 

Will we?  Odds are nope.  But we can.  Senior laden experienced (and fairly talented) team with a manageable and not obnoxious schedule.  A team with a great defense can win every night and we have that IMO.

 

I'd just rather put my season on what I do than on what someone else does... If I had a choice anyway.  And why not enjoy being undefeated for a while...  after all we are still ranked #1 (in sagarin). 

 

Suck it up and act like we haven't historically sucked.  Acting scared makes it more likely to lose, not less.

[Huskerpapa]

The most important game of the year is tonight versus Seton Hall.  After we win tonight, the most important game is the next one on our schedule...and on and on and on.  If you do not have that mentality, then the season could end up containing a lot of "what if's"

[AuroranHusker]

As I had mentioned in another thread:

 

Win the next game.

Rinse.

Repeat.

 

 

[Noah121]

7 hours ago, PimpMario said:

 

Do you think we can go 31-0?

 

The 2009-10 WBB team did start 30-0, so why not?

[HuskerFever]

Collectively, we've done our part this nonconference season so far:

 

 

[HuskerActuary]

I missed this thread this week. Interesting comment from Miles. Bart Torvik would have this scenario as a 7 seed in this scenario, so not too far off. I've never heard of the guy that developed the tool Miles is talking about - looks like he works for Michigan State.

[HuskerFever]

Speaking of magic numbers, Miles just hit one of his:

 

 

[HuskerActuary]

3 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

Speaking of magic numbers, Miles just hit one of his:

 

 

Doc had 101 victories at Nebraska, and Moe Iba had 106. As such, later this season, Miles will have the third most victories in Nebraska basketball history, behind Nee's 254 and Cipriano's 253.

[Handy Johnson]

if we ONLY go 11-9 in the B1G I'll eat my hat. Remember, for those keeping score at home, I had us at 25 total wins...