Selection Committee Games of Interest

[HolyBobpilgrimage]

A night truly worth staying up for. I caught 2 pac-12 OT games.  Riveting beyond belief. 

All in all great day for Cinderella big red though. ?

[HolyBobpilgrimage]

Now 2000+ comments on this thread, guys! That has to be some sort of record, at least seasonally. Thanks to everyone who has put so much blood sweat and tears into this thread (and board). It's been great. Nerds will conquer! ?

[atskooc]

7 hours ago, colhusker said:

Lunardi can't put us in now.  He has bashed so much this year he has boxed himself into the corner of his mom's basement.

Lunardi can't put any team in; he's not on the committee. 

[ladyhusker]

Don't we actually want Buffalo tonight? It's their conference tournament and I don't THINK they could realistically steal an at-large but wouldn't it be better not to gamble on that?

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[Lifetimesker]

1 hour ago, atskooc said:

Lunardi can't put any team in; he's not on the committee. 

^^^this^^^.....and 1 for a chance at a 4 point play, as you were fouled in the act of shooting, behind the arc......AND MADE IT!

[HuskerFever]

Tonight is pivotal. If things lean our way, then many bubble teams will no longer be able to build their resume. But if things don't go our way, then we're on thin ice as many of these teams likely move into their conference semifinals and have a chance to do some real damage.

[colhusker]

1 hour ago, atskooc said:

Lunardi can't put any team in; he's not on the committee. 

Understand this and thank goodness.  However, he does have a forum in which he can speak daily talking some teams up (cough cough $EC cough cough) and talk teams and conferences down.

[atskooc]

4 minutes ago, colhusker said:

Understand this and thank goodness.  However, he does have a forum in which he can speak daily talking some teams up (cough cough $EC cough cough) and talk teams and conferences down.

This is true.

 

But if the members of the committee are in any way swayed by what he (or any other talking head) says, then each and every member of the committee should be removed from their position immediately. 

 

I tend to believe that the committee members are not convinced by anything he professes, if only because if I believe otherwise then I'll have to give up ever watching the tournament, because it will have become a total sham.

 

I know my logic is not particularly strong with this, but it's how I have to function in this matter.

Edited March 8, 2018 by atskooc

[colhusker]

Just now, atskooc said:

This is true.

 

But if the members of the committee are in any way swayed by what he (or any other talking head) says, then each and every member of the committee should be removed from their position immediately. 

 

I tend to believe that the committee members are not convinced by anything he professes, if only because if I believe otherwise, then I'll have to give up ever watching the tournament because it will become a total sham.

 

I know my logic is not particularly strong with this, but it's how I have to function in this matter.

I agree 100% on this and need to hope your right with the next statement.  We will know in a few days.

[royalfan]

Louisville 38/Virginia 1 - 11am ESPN Virginia - 7 1/2  Need Virginia, preferably by way of blowout but it might be too late already.  
St. John's 88/Xavier 3 - 11am FS1  ESTIMATED LINE Xavier -5  Need St. Johns
Central Michigan 167/Buffalo 32 - 11am ESPN3 Buffalo - 8 1/2  Need Central Michigan and then if Buffalo wins this probably time to go with them
TCU 20/Kansas State 61 - 11:30 TCU - 2 1/2  Need TCU pretty bad here, preferably by way of blowout
Alabama 56/Texas A&M 24 - 12pm SEC Network Texas AM - 1 1/2  Need Texas AM pretty bad here
Boston College/Clemson - 1pm(pry closer to 1:30) Clemson -4  Need Boston College to help our metrics one more time
Oklahoma State 85/Kansas 6 - 1:30(pry closer to 2)  ESPN2  ESTIMATED LINE  Kansas - 3 1/2  Need Kansas very very badly for metrics and to knock out OK St.
Providence 42 /Creighton 34 - 1:30 FS1 Creighton -4  This is the bizarro world we live in.  We need Creighton badly.  You can do it once fellas.  
UNLV 126/Nevada 14- 2pm CBS Sports Network  Nevada - 6 1/2  Need Nevada to win this whole thing
North Dakota 220/Montana 96 - 2:05  http://www.bigskyconf.com/sports/2015/11/19/WatchBigSky.aspx Nevada -11 Need North Dakota for our metrics
Stanford 83/UCLA 36 - 4:30 Pac 12 Network UCLA -3  Need Stanford pretty bad
Long Beach State 186/CS Fullerton 162 - 4:30 Fox Sports West for satty folks, not sure any other way  Fullerton - 1 1/2 Need Long Beach St for metrics
Marquette 55/Villanova 2 - 6pm FS1 ESTIMATED LINE  Villanova -7 1/2  Need Villanova badly here
Notre Dame 64/Duke 4 - 6pm ESPN  ESTIMATED LINE  Duke -4 1/2  Need DUKE BADLY!
Texas 46/Texas Tech  23- 6pm ESPN2  EsTIMATED LINE Texas Tech -4  Need Texas Tech badly
LSU 89/Mississippi State 72 - 6pm SEC Network Mississippi St - 1 1/2  Need LSU to eliminate Mississippi St and not bump games at Mississippi St for folks down to Q2
Southern Miss 222/Middle Tennessee 29 - 6pm https://watchstadium.com/network/conference-usa/  Estimated LineMiddle Tennessee St - 9  Need Middle Tennessee St
UT San Antonio 181/Marshall 99 - 6:30 https://watchstadium.com/   ESTIMATED LINE Marshall -7  Need UTSA for metrics
Baylor 59/West Virginia 31 - 8:30 ESPN2  West Virginia - 5  Need West Virginia very badly 
East Carolina 271/UCF 78 -8pm ESPNU  UCF - 13 1/2  Need UCF for metrics 
South Carolina 75/Arkansas 30 - 8:25 SEC Network ESTIMATED LINE Arkansas -4  Need South Carolina but I don't think it matters much.  Either way it is going to likely bump someone down a quadrant for opposition road games or home games in Arkansas case
Oregon State 129/USC 35 - 8pm Pac 12 Network  ESTIMATED LINE USC - 4  Need Oregon St badly here
Chicago State 338/New Mexico State 41 - 8pm ESPN3 New Mexico St - 25 Need Chicago St here and then time to start rooting for New Mexico St. after this one
Utah State 157/Boise State 38 - 8pm CBS Sports Network  Boise St -7  Need Utah St. badly here
Butler 45/Seton Hall 28 - 8:30 FS1  Butler -1  Both pry in but outside shot Butler misses with a blowout loss so I guess Seton Hall.  I am conflicted though as a Butler win would drop Seton Hall home games for folks out of Q1 potentially
UAB 146/Western Kentucky 52 -9pm facebook live  ESTIMATED LINE Western Kentucky -3  Need UAB 
Oregon 69/Utah 49 - 10:30 FS1 ESTIMATED LINE Utah -  3 1/2  Need Oregon I believe, correct me if I am wrong

 

Others 

 

Georgia 81/Missouri 33 2:25  SEC Network ESTIMATED LINE  Missouri - 4 1/2  Need Georgia

 

[royalfan]

1 hour ago, ladyhusker said:

Don't we actually want Buffalo tonight? It's their conference tournament and I don't THINK they could realistically steal an at-large but wouldn't it be better not to gamble on that?

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

My opinion is to root for Central Michigan today.  If Buffalo wins this one, then time to root for them.  Obviously, not a high leverage situation if Buffalo wins today though, as it could work out fine.  

Edited March 8, 2018 by royalfan

[throwback]

6 hours ago, HolyBobpilgrimage said:

A night truly worth staying up for. I caught 2 pac-12 OT games.  Riveting beyond belief. 

All in all great day for Cinderella big red though. ?

It's times like this that I'm thankful DirecTV doesn't provide the Pac-12 Network so I can get some sleep instead of being tempted to watch some God-awful hoops.

 

 

[HuskerFever]

Here's Lunardi's update after Wednesday's games:

 

Last Four Byes
Providence
USC
Baylor
Texas

Last Four In
Oklahoma
UCLA
Arizona State
Louisville

First Four Out
Oklahoma State
Notre Dame
Alabama
Marquette

Next Four Out
Syracuse
Penn State
Boise State
Nebraska

[Nebrasketball1979]

3 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

Here's Lunardi's update after Wednesday's games:

 

Last Four Byes
Providence
USC
Baylor
Texas

Last Four In
Oklahoma
UCLA
Arizona State
Louisville

First Four Out
Oklahoma State
Notre Dame
Alabama
Marquette

Next Four Out
Syracuse
Penn State
Boise State
Nebraska

 

It will be glorious when Baylor, Texas, UCLA, Louisville and all of the first four out teams lose today.  Oregon State beating USC would be a nice bonus as well and maybe Creighton will throw us a bone against Providence but I'm not counting on that.  Man, almost all of these teams can and perhaps should lose today.  Of course, Lunardi won't budge us at all after this but it is still going to be a fun day today and the bubble chaos that ensues!!!  Here is to total anarchy and chaos today!!!!!

[jayschool]

8 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

Here's Lunardi's update after Wednesday's games:

 

Last Four Byes
Providence
USC
Baylor
Texas

Last Four In
Oklahoma
UCLA
Arizona State
Louisville

First Four Out
Oklahoma State
Notre Dame
Alabama
Marquette

Next Four Out
Syracuse
Penn State
Boise State
Nebraska

So ASU and OU, according to Lunardi, had already cemented their spots despite stinking on ice last night (and for the last 60 days or so). Apparently the only team playing high-stakes games in the last month was Nebraska.

Edited March 8, 2018 by jayschool

[jimmykc]

Here's one to ponder for today: Do we root for Southern Miss or Middle Tenn in the C-USA tourney ? Not who we need, but who do we root. Ironic if we would end up in a play-in game against Southern Miss.

Edited March 8, 2018 by jimmykc

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

3 minutes ago, jimmykc said:

Here's one to ponder for today: Do we root for Southern Miss or Middle Tenn in the C-USA tourney?? 

 

I agree that's a good question. I don't think MTSU has a shot at an at-large if they lose to anyone not named WKU. Worst case scenario for this tournament is having WKU beat MTSU in the final... that's the only chance they both get in IMO. So it's probably best to root against MTSU until they get to the final.

[brfrad]

8 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

 

I'm sure Lunardi is lurking somewhere on this board while watching late night Pac-12 hoops.

That's funny!  Luinardi gets credit for "watching" basketball.

[Blindcheck]

26 minutes ago, jimmykc said:

Here's one to ponder for today: Do we root for Southern Miss or Middle Tenn in the C-USA tourney ? Not who we need, but who do we root. Ironic if we would end up in a play-in game against Southern Miss.

We couldn't play Southern Miss in a play in game...because they would get an auto bid if they were to get in.

 

The play in games are:

 

2 games of the last four at large teams and

2 games of the bottom 4 16 seeds that are auto bids.

 

 

[oly_10]

1 hour ago, jayschool said:

So ASU and OU, according to Lunardi, had already cemented their spots despite stinking on ice last night (and for the last 60 days or so). Apparently the only team playing high-stakes games in the last month was Nebraska.

^^^^ Spot on. Ignore the last 2 months of basketball for select teams (the two you mentioned above). But Nebraska losing to Big Ten Champs Michigan totally puts the Huskers out of the tourney. Oh, and let’s ignore their 13-5 conference record, unless I have no clue why I put one team ahead of another. 

 

 Why not just end the college basketball season around Jan 1st? ?

[HuskerFever]

So the Big 12 is arguably the almighty conference, top-to-bottom, this year. When you remove all of that inner-conference RPI resume boosting/trading Quadrant 1 win nonsense, I just don't understand it. One thing I did notice that was impressing is how the entire conference was able to go undefeated in Quadrant 3 and Quadrant 4 (minus one Q4 loss to Milwaukee from Iowa State). Aside from that, here are their biggest by-Quadrant wins when you remove conference play:

 

Kansas: neut Kentucky (Q1), neut Syracuse (Q1), vs South Dakota State (Q2)
Texas Tech: vs Nevada (Q1), at South Carolina (Q2), neut Boston College (Q2)
West Virginia: vs Virginia (Q1), neut Missouri (Q1), neut UCF (Q2)
Kansas State: at Vanderbilt (Q2)
TCU: neut Nevada (Q1), neut St. Bonaventure (Q1)
Baylor: vs Creighton (Q1)
Texas: at Alabama (Q1)
Oklahoma State: neut Florida State (Q1), vs Tulsa (Q2)
Oklahoma: at Wichita State (Q1), neut USC (Q1), neut Oregon (Q2)
Iowa State: neut Boise State (Q1), neut Tulsa (Q2), vs Milwaukee (Q4 LOSS)

 

In no way am I bringing the Big Ten into this conversation, but aside from this looks like the Big 12 was able to navigate the RPI system the best from top-to-bottom. After that, they were able to reap the benefits entering into conference play and start giving each other a plethora Quadrant 1 wins.

[Nebrasketball1979]

I know this is likely a little contrarian but I'm mildly rooting against St. Johns and Boston College today.  The selection committee is in Day 2 of their meetings and I can't imagine a slot or two movement in any of these metrics is going to move the needle at this point.  At this point, I would prefer to see all of these potential bid thieves leave their tournaments as quickly as possible, unless they are playing a very bubbly team.  BC and St Johns are playing teams firmly in the field so I'm ok with them bowing out at this point and alleviating additional indigestion over the next few days.

Edited March 8, 2018 by Nebrasketball1979

[HuskerFever]

https://sports.yahoo.com/wednesdays-bubble-breakdown-oklahomas-collapse-may-not-cost-bid-032648477.html

 

"Oklahoma (18-13, 8-10, RPI: 37, KenPom: 42): Get ready for Oklahoma to secure a bid with room to spare and people to be outraged. The Sooners are the epitome of an NIT-caliber team with an NCAA tournament-caliber resume. While Oklahoma has dropped 11 of 15 games since ascending to No. 4 in the AP poll two months ago, the Sooners still have a leg up on most bubble teams. Oklahoma doesn’t have a single loss outside the top two quadrants and it boasts six quadrant 1 victories including a marquee wins over Kansas, Wichita State and Texas Tech, a season sweep of TCU and a victory over fellow bubble team USC. Yes, Oklahoma hasn’t won a road game since December. Yes, Oklahoma has lost by double figures in five of its last seven games. But if the committee considers Oklahoma’s full resume and doesn’t fall victim to recency bias, the Sooners should be safe."

[hskr4life]

1 minute ago, HuskerFever said:

https://sports.yahoo.com/wednesdays-bubble-breakdown-oklahomas-collapse-may-not-cost-bid-032648477.html

 

"Oklahoma (18-13, 8-10, RPI: 37, KenPom: 42): Get ready for Oklahoma to secure a bid with room to spare and people to be outraged. The Sooners are the epitome of an NIT-caliber team with an NCAA tournament-caliber resume. While Oklahoma has dropped 11 of 15 games since ascending to No. 4 in the AP poll two months ago, the Sooners still have a leg up on most bubble teams. Oklahoma doesn’t have a single loss outside the top two quadrants and it boasts six quadrant 1 victories including a marquee wins over Kansas, Wichita State and Texas Tech, a season sweep of TCU and a victory over fellow bubble team USC. Yes, Oklahoma hasn’t won a road game since December. Yes, Oklahoma has lost by double figures in five of its last seven games. But if the committee considers Oklahoma’s full resume and doesn’t fall victim to recency bias, the Sooners should be safe."

 

False as they lost to ISU on the road which is now a Q3 loss.

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

12 minutes ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

I know this is likely a little contrarian but I'm mildly rooting against St. Johns and Boston College today.  The selection committee is in Day 2 of their meetings and I can't imagine a slot or two movement in any of these metrics is going to move the needle at this point.  At this point, I would prefer to see all of these potential bid thieves leave their tournaments as quickly as possible, unless they are playing a very bubbly team.  BC and St Johns are playing teams firmly in the field so I'm ok with them bowing out at this point and alleviating additional indigestion over the next few days.

 

Good point. Looks like St. John's is about to bow out. I think we still want BC to win today, though. They'd still likely have to beat Virginia and Duke/UNC after that, so I'm not worried about it yet.