Selection Committee Games of Interest

[Swan88]

St. Bonaventure has wins over Maryland on a neutral court in overtime, at Syracuse and at home against UMass.  No other major wins.

They’ve lost to Niagra, TCU, Dayton, Saint Joseph’s, Rhode Island and Davidson.

Their other wins are over Jackson St., Md.-East. Shore, Siena, Buffalo, Canisius, Yale, Vermont, Northeastrn, Fordham, Saint Joseph’s, George Washington, George Mason, Duquesne, Saint Louis and Richmond.

 

And these dudes are ahead of us in the RPI?!   I call foul!!

[HuskerFever]

2 minutes ago, Swan88 said:

And these dudes are ahead of us in the RPI?!   I call foul!!

 

And they're right behind us on the bubble and in votes received.

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

16 minutes ago, Swan88 said:

St. Bonaventure has wins over Maryland on a neutral court in overtime, at Syracuse and at home against UMass.  No other major wins.

They’ve lost to Niagra, TCU, Dayton, Saint Joseph’s, Rhode Island and Davidson.

Their other wins are over Jackson St., Md.-East. Shore, Siena, Buffalo, Canisius, Yale, Vermont, Northeastrn, Fordham, Saint Joseph’s, George Washington, George Mason, Duquesne, Saint Louis and Richmond.

 

And these dudes are ahead of us in the RPI?!   I call foul!!

 

The difference lies in the fact that we've played a lot of 300+ RPI teams. That makes a big difference in the math, and I'm guessing it's the main culprit for what makes RPI more flawed than other metrics. Like I've seen others say, playing the RPI 320th team isn't much different than playing the 240th team in reality, but for RPI it makes a huge difference.

 

Nonetheless, I'm not that worried about St. Bonaventure. The committee has proven in the past that teams like them who have good RPIs supplemented with a lot of bad losses and a lack of quality wins don't end up getting a bid.

[royalfan]

Actuary mentioned calculating RPI if Delaware St. were removed.  If this wizard I found on the internet is correct it would move us from 54 to 50 and SOS from 97 to 91.  Thought it might be slightly more impactful than that.  

Edited February 14, 2018 by royalfan

[Norm Peterson]

6 minutes ago, royalfan said:

Actuary mentioned calculating RPI if Delaware St. were removed.  If this wizard I found on the internet is correct it would move us from 54 to 50 and SOS from 97 to 91.  Though it might be slightly more impactful than that.  

 

Can we just pretend we never played them?

 

I mean, that stuff sounds like how Rivals' football recruiting rankings would downgrade your recruiting class if you ADDED a 2-star kicker and nothing else changed.  I don't know if Rivals' system still works that way or not, but it's dumb if it does.  You shouldn't be downgrading by ADDING a player no matter what his star raking is.  He's an add.  Period.

 

Same with RPI.  Our RPI shouldn't be better if we hadn't played a game that we won.  A double-digit scoring margin win should never hurt you.  Maybe it shouldn't help you, but it certainly shouldn't hurt you.  Your RPI should not be less because you whooped a bad team.  

 

#SystemIsBroke

[royalfan]

In college hockey, they use pairwise ratings which are basically RPI with wins taken out that hurt your RPI.   That is my understanding of it at least.  

[OmahaHusker]

Minnesota putting up a fight against MSU and Northwestern beating Rutgers would've been nice...

 

Can this conference not throw us a bone here?

[HuskerFever]

8 hours ago, royalfan said:

Okay, here is the the main reason for the thread.  Edited fever by deleting a couple that I Don't think matter, added some, added RPI, game time, how to watch, the line and who I feel is in our best interest to win.  

 

Georgetown 143/Butler 32- 5:30 CBS Sports network  Butler - 11 1/2  Need Georgetown
Boston College 85/Pittsburgh 178- 6pm ESPN News Boston College - 8 1/2 Need Boston College
Texas A&M  16/Missouri 23- 6pm ESPNU Missouri -1  I lean towards us needing AM 
Arkansas 35/Ole Miss 104 -  6pm SEC Network Arkansas - 2 1/2  Need Ole Miss here
St. Bonaventure 44/La Salle 186 - 6pm http://www.atlantic10.com/mediaPortal/player.dbml?catid=0&id=1909811&db_oem_id=31600 should be free St Bonaventure -1 We need La Salle
Kent State 172/Buffalo 33 - 6pm ESPN3 Buffalo - 13 1/2 Need Kent St.
Virginia 1/Miami 24 - 8pm ESPN  Virginia -6 need Virginia
South Carolina 76 /Tennessee   13-8pm ESPNU  Tennessee -10 1/2 Need Tennessee 
LSU 77/Alabama 34-  8pm SEC Network Alabama -7 I think we want Alabama

Others

Kansas 9 at Iowa St 90  6 pm ESPN2  Kansas -7 Need Kansas

Oklahoma 21 at Texas Tech 12  6pm ESPN Texas tech -7 Need Texas Tech just in case OU keeps reeling and committee pulls head out of ass

Michigan St 14 at Minnesota 134  8pm ESPN2  Michigan St - 10 Need Minnesota played them twice and keeps Michigan St from one seed since we are 4

Northwestern 96 at Rutgers 208 8pm BTN Northwestern - 3 1/2  Not sure, on one hand played Rutgers twice.  On the other there is outside shot at Northwestern getting into Quadrant 1.  I am leaning Rutgers as it helps all 6 of our metrics more than a NW win. 

 

Updated.

[HuskerFever]

Wednesday's Games of Interest:

 

South Florida/UCF - need UCF to keep winning
Iowa/Michigan - going with the flawed RPI/Tier approach
Villanova/Providence - not sure how Providence is still a thing
Clemson/Florida State - knock off FSU
Virginia Tech/Duke - VaTech's getting comfortable
Mississippi State/Vanderbilt - down with MSU
Kansas State/Oklahoma State - going with OSU on this one
Illinois/Indiana - we play Illinois twice
Seton Hall/Xavier - known down Seton Hall
Kentucky/Auburn - likely doesn't matter, but a Kentucky 4-game losing streak sounds like
NC State/Syracuse - NC State has the better wins; knock out Syracuse
Georgia/Florida - Florida just in case
Memphis/SMU - going with Memphis
St. John's/DePaul - both teams took care of business for us; need St. John's
Air Force/UNLV - hush the UNLV conversation
Nevada/Boise State - knock Boise State out
Wyoming/San Diego State - becoming less of an issue, but go SDSU

 

Thursday's Games of Interest:

 

Cincinnati/Houston - knock out Houston
Purdue/Wisconsin - played Wisconsin twice; also Purdue #2/3 seed
Temple/Wichita State - need WSU to hush the Temple conversation
Marist/Fairfield - Marist needs to win something
New Hampshire/Vermont - knock down Vermont
Lipscomb/Stetson - win/win
Eastern Illinois/Southeast Missouri State - another win/win
Ohio State/Penn State - PSU is on track to build a better resume than us
Southern Utah/North Dakota - yet another win/win
Middle Tennessee/Southern Miss - Middle Tennessee is receiving votes
UT San Antonio/Old Dominion - and yet another win/win
Texas State/Louisiana - knock down Louisiana
Arizona/Arizona State - going with Arizona; ASU is hot and cold
Utah/Washington - knock down Washington
Oregon/USC - real tough one; going with Oregon
New Mexico State/Utah Valley - someone's gotta beat NMSU
Western Kentucky/North Texas - this would be a big win for us
UC Santa Barbara/Long Beach State - and again, yet another win/win
Colorado/Washington State - knock down CU
Oregon State/UCLA - could use some more help from OSU

[royalfan]

just had to put Thursdays up there before I go to bed.  It will be a restless night knowing I have Marist to look forward to Thursday.  

[HuskerFever]

7 minutes ago, royalfan said:

just had to put Thursdays up there before I go to bed.  It will be a restless night knowing I have Marist to look forward to Thursday.  

 

At least it's not Delaware State... 

[HuskerFever]

On 2/12/2018 at 9:57 AM, HuskerFever said:

Lunardi's bubble watch through the conclusion of Feb. 11 games:

 

Last Four Byes
Arkansas - Thursday at Ole Miss, Saturday vs Texas A&M
Providence - Wednesday vs Villanova, Saturday at Butler
Washington - Thursday vs Utah, Saturday vs Colorado
Virginia Tech - Wednesday at Duke, Saturday at Georgia Tech

 

Last Four In
UCLA - Thursday vs Oregon State, Saturday vs Oregon
Kansas State - Wednesday at Oklahoma State, Saturday vs Iowa State
NC State - Wednesday at Syracuse, Saturday at Wake Forest
USC - Thursday vs Oregon, Saturday vs Oregon State

 

First Four Out
Boise State - Wednesday vs Nevada, Saturday vs Air Force
Nebraska - vs Maryland, Sunday at Illinois
St. Bonaventure - at La Salle, Friday vs Rhode Island
Syracuse - Wednesday vs NC State, Saturday at Miami

 

Next Four Out
Utah - Thursday at Washington, Saturday at Washington State
Temple - Thursday at Wichita State, Saturday vs Houston
Mississippi State - Wednesday at Vanderbilt, Saturday vs Ole Miss
Western Kentucky - Thursday at North Texas, Saturday at Rice

 

Latest Lunardi bubble watch updated.

[royalfan]

How is providence in so comfortably.  You just cannot get boatraced at home by DePaul this time of year is what common sense would tell me.   

[HuskerFever]

13 minutes ago, royalfan said:

How is providence in so comfortably.  You just cannot get boatraced at home by DePaul this time of year is what common sense would tell me.   

 

Meanwhile, the pundits are ready to pounce on us if/when we get our next loss.

[Timforthewin]

34 minutes ago, royalfan said:

How is providence in so comfortably.  You just cannot get boatraced at home by DePaul this time of year is what common sense would tell me.   

The worst part about this is I expect them to lose to Nova and then at Butler. But when the time comes "experts" will still have them in the tourney because "they're such quality losses".

[hhctony]

49 minutes ago, royalfan said:

How is providence in so comfortably.  You just cannot get boatraced at home by DePaul this time of year is what common sense would tell me.   

 

Xavier. Creighton. Washington (N). @ Marquette. @ St. John's.

[royalfan]

10 minutes ago, hhctony said:

 

Xavier. Creighton. Washington (N). @ Marquette. @ St. John's.

Common denominator is that the big east is vastly overrated by the rpi in relation to the big 10.  You stack up vegas power ratings and it is not all that lopsided at all.  Yet a team like providence gets rewarded for it over and over again and a team like us gets penalized over and over again.

[hskr4life]

So are we saying it’s better to win big games than lose crappy ones?  Because if I am a committee member, I have the opposite way of thinking.  

 

Would it be different had be won @OSU, @Creighton and Home against KU... but lost at home to Illinois, @Wisco, and @Rutgers?

[hhctony]

1 minute ago, royalfan said:

Common denominator is that the big east is vastly overrated by the rpi in relation to the big 10.  You stack up vegas power ratings and it is not all that lopsided at all.  Yet a team like providence gets rewarded for it over and over again and a team like us gets penalized over and over again.

 

No argument. But, the Big East won a whole bunch of non-conference games and they reward their schools by getting home-and-home for every team in the league. Nebraska, as it turned out, had one chance -- ONE -- at a home Tier One game this year. Right now, every Big East team has a chance at four. Pretty nuts.

[tcp]

1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

So are we saying it’s better to win big games than lose crappy ones?  Because if I am a committee member, I have the opposite way of thinking.  

 

Would it be different had be won @OSU, @Creighton and Home against KU... but lost at home to Illinois, @Wisco, and @Rutgers?

 

hell yes. probably a lot different. in the losses, 2 are on the road and the only terrible loss is the home loss to illinois. but in that first group? it

s like a jackpot of brownie points. that would more than offset the negatives from the last three games. 

[huskerbaseball13]

20 hours ago, Swan88 said:

St. Bonaventure has wins over Maryland on a neutral court in overtime, at Syracuse and at home against UMass.  No other major wins.

They’ve lost to Niagra, TCU, Dayton, Saint Joseph’s, Rhode Island and Davidson.

Their other wins are over Jackson St., Md.-East. Shore, Siena, Buffalo, Canisius, Yale, Vermont, Northeastrn, Fordham, Saint Joseph’s, George Washington, George Mason, Duquesne, Saint Louis and Richmond.

 

And these dudes are ahead of us in the RPI?!   I call foul!!

 

Not foul....not sure what the right word for it is...sneaky maybe?  That win @Buffalo and vs Vermont carries a lot of weight unfortunately with both being top 50 RPI wins and one on the road.  Had we say....got Vermont to travel to Lincoln as opposed to Deleware St it would have been the difference of nearly 20 RPI spots.  Hell, we probably wouldn't even be talking about the bubble all that much right now if that was the case.  We are one Vermont win away from nearly being a "lock."  

Edited February 14, 2018 by huskerbaseball13

[royalfan]

Added games, rpi, time, how to watch, line and who I feel we need are all added to Fever report.

 

South Florida 289/ UCF  57- 5pm ESPN News UCF -13  Need UCF
Iowa 138 /Michigan  39 - 5:30 BTN Michigan - 11 1/2 Pros and cons both ways.  I personally think chances are low of Michigan getting into top 30, so I think better off rooting for Iowa as Michigan is hogging up a spot that could be ours.  I know most of you feel otherwise and that is fine.  Michigan not losing anyway.  
Villanova 3/Providence 43-6pm FS1 Villanova - 9 1/2 Need Villanova here
Clemson 4/Florida State 46 - 6pm ESPN Full Court/ESPN3  FSU - 4 1/2  Need Clemson
Virginia Tech 59 /Duke 10  6pm ESPN2 Duke - 11 1/2  Need Duke
Mississippi State 58 /Vanderbilt  125 - 6pm SEC Network Vanderbilt - 1 1/2  Need Vanderbilt

Kansas State 67/Oklahoma State 91 - 6pm ESPNU Oklahoma St - 3 1/2  Need Oklahoma St. 
Illinois 186/Indiana 108 - 7:30 BTN Indiana -9  We need Illionois
Seton Hall 24/Xavier  2- 8pm FS1 Xavier - 5 1/2  Need Xavier
Kentucky 20 /Auburn  9- 8pm ESPN2 Auburn - 9 1/2  Need Auburn
NC State  70/Syracuse 37 - 8pm ESPN Full Court.ESPN3 Syracuse -5 I think Syracuse slightly better for us to have better shot at both not making it
Georgia 83/Florida 47 -8 pm SEC Network FLORIDA -10  I think Georgia is better as a loss here could put Florida much closer to the bubble if they have a losing streak
Memphis 136/SMU  81- 8pm ESPNU  SMU - 6 1/2 need Memphis
St. John's 66/DePaul 166- 8pm CBS sports Network  St Johns -1  Need St Johns
Air Force 234/UNLV 114- 9pm http://themw.com/sports/2017/8/31/watch-live.aspx  UNLV - 12 1/2  Need Air Force
Nevada 15/Boise State 36 - 10pm ESPNU  Boise St - 2 1/2  Need Nevada
Wyoming 72/San Diego State  132 - 10pm CBS Sports Network  SD st - 7 1/2  Need SD ST. 

 

Others

Valparaiso 183 at Loyola-Chicago 51  7pm ESPN3  Loyola - 11 1/2  Valpo wouldnt hurt to be safe

 

Edited February 14, 2018 by royalfan

[Section_316]

Bagley out for duke tonight- that sucks. give VT a fighters chance in Cameron Indoor

[Nebrasketball1979]

3 minutes ago, royalfan said:

Added games, rpi, time, how to watch, line and who I feel we need are all added to Fever report.

 

South Florida 289/ UCF  57- 5pm ESPN News UCF -13  Need UCF
Iowa 138 /Michigan  39 - 5:30 BTN Michigan - 11 1/2 Pros and cons both ways.  I personally think chances are low of Michigan getting into top 30, so I think better off rooting for Iowa as Michigan is hogging up a spot that could be ours.  I know most of you feel otherwise and that is fine.  Michigan not losing anyway.  
Villanova 3/Providence 43-6pm FS1 Villanova - 9 1/2 Need Villanova here
Clemson 4/Florida State 46 - 6pm ESPN Full Court/ESPN3  FSU - 4 1/2  Need Clemson
Virginia Tech 59 /Duke 10  6pm ESPN2 Duke - 11 1/2  Need Duke
Mississippi State 58 /Vanderbilt  125 - 6pm SEC Network Vanderbilt - 1 1/2  Need Vanderbilt

Kansas State 67/Oklahoma State 91 - 6pm ESPNU Oklahoma St - 3 1/2  Need Oklahoma St. 
Illinois 186/Indiana 108 - 7:30 BTN Indiana -9  We need Illionois
Seton Hall 24/Xavier  2- 8pm FS1 Xavier - 5 1/2  Need Xavier
Kentucky 20 /Auburn  9- 8pm ESPN2 Auburn - 9 1/2  Need Auburn
NC State  70/Syracuse 37 - 8pm ESPN Full Court.ESPN3 Syracuse -5 I think Syracuse slightly better for us to have better shot at both not making it
Georgia 83/Florida 47 -8 pm SEC Network FLORIDA -10  I think Georgia is better as a loss here could put Florida much closer to the bubble if they have a losing streak
Memphis 136/SMU  81- 8pm ESPNU  SMU - 6 1/2 need Memphis
St. John's 66/DePaul 166- 8pm CBS sports Network  St Johns -1  Need St Johns
Air Force 234/UNLV 114- 9pm http://themw.com/sports/2017/8/31/watch-live.aspx  UNLV - 12 1/2  Need Air Force
Nevada 15/Boise State 36 - 10pm ESPNU  Boise St - 2 1/2  Need Nevada
Wyoming 72/San Diego State  132 - 10pm CBS Sports Network  SD st - 7 1/2  Need SD ST. 

 

Others

Valparaiso 183 at Loyola-Chicago 51  7pm ESPN3  Loyola - 11 1/2  Valpo wouldnt hurt to be safe

 

 

Huge bubble games tonight and tomorrow night.  I've been one of the ones arguing for Michigan to win but I think I'm beginning to migrate towards your thinking the later we get into the season.  Their RPI is 39 and even if they go 3-1 down the stretch (say win vs Iowa, Ohio St and then split the two road games @PSU, @Maryland), I still am not convinced that does enough to get them into the RPI top 30.  Then when you factor we would almost inevitably play them in the 4/5 game a win by us would certainly drop them below 30 in the RPI if they happen to sneak above it and hence the nonsensical nature of the quadrants.  So, I guess this is where I'm at with Michigan.  They either need to win out or either lose out or go 1-3 down the stretch.  Having Michigan go 2-2 does absolutely nothing for us besides diminishing our win against them.  A 3-1 Michigan finish likely doesn't move the needle one way or the other.

 

Out of all the games, I think it's super important that Providence loses tonight as a win vs. Villanova almost certainly solidifies their case to be included and more than offsets the ugly loss to DePaul.  I will also be pulling very hard against Boise St as they find themselves right on the cut line with us.

[HuskerActuary]

I've been away from phone/computer all night, how is the night going from a bubble perspective?