Selection Committee Games of Interest

[rr52]

Some of these other bubble teams are flirting with being under .500 in conference. And yes I know that conference record isn't supposed to matter but how many teams have made the tourney with a record under .500 in the last 8-10 years?

[HuskerFever]

4 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

Updated Fever post for added game, RPI's, game time, how to watch, line and who I feel we need

 

Michigan 40/Wisconsin 143 - 12pm CBS  Michigan -4 We need Wisconsin.  Again, I don't think tiers are really a thing, like most others do.  We played Wisconsin twice.  I want to strengthen those wins, including the road win.  We are also competing with Michigan for one of the last bids in the field.  I also think the committee will give us credit for a double bye whether they want to admit it or not, and Michigan is the main threat to that.  If Michigan does win, it does improve our chances of playing them again, for better or worse, which would neutralize the game played differential between these two clubs. -- (gotta trump Royal on this one; it's our biggest win and if we can't clear out the #4 spot we don't deserve to be there anyway)
Louisville 42/Pittsburgh 176 -  12 pm ACC/ESPN Full Court/Espn3  Lousiville -11 1/2  Need Pittsburgh
Wake Forest 125/Syracuse 38 - 12pm ACC/ESPN Full Court/ESPN3 Syracuse - 7 1/2  Need Wake Forest
UMass Lowell  303/Vermont  41 - 1pm ESPN3  No line Need UMASS Lowell 
Cincinnati 10/SMU  75 - 3pm ESPN Cincinnati -8 Need Cincinnati
UCF 68/Memphis 125 - 3pm CBS Sports Network  Memphis -3 Need UCF
Tulane 132/Houston 31- 5pm ESPNU  Houston - 14 We need Tulane
Penn St. 91/Illinois 175 - 6pm BTN Penn St - 2 1/2  This one very tough to figure out.  On one hand a Penn St. win gives us a shot to play a bigger game in that last game, which is a game time that should have a lot of selection eyes on our game. It also would possibly deflate Illinois a bit more, potentially making our game against them slightly easier.   On the other hand, Penn St. is very close to us in terms of getting a bid, and already beat us.  Also not sure I want to see them as the 5 seed in New York if we get the 4.  They also could easily get the 4 from us yet.  All things considered, I think it may be best if Illinois wins this one.
Washington State 183/Oregon82 - 7pm ESPNU  Oregon - 15 1/2  We want Washington St.  

 

Other games

Stanford 94 at Colorado 66  3pm Pac 12 Network  Colorado -3  I think we want Stanford but it is a little tricky

 

And that closes out the weekend games. There aren't many more weekend opportunities for these bubble teams to pop. 

[HuskerFever]

20 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

Monday's Games of Interest:

 

Notre Dame/North Carolina - just keep Notre Dame out of it
East Tennessee State/UNC Greensboro - ETSU is/was receiving votes
Delaware State/Norfolk State - just win one already! c'mon man!
TCU/West Virginia - keep TCU out of it
Baylor/Texas - debatable, but down with Texas

 

Tuesday's Games of Interest:

 

Georgetown/Butler - knock down Butler
Boston College/Pittsburgh - win for us
Nebraska/Maryland - no brainer
Texas A&M/Missouri - tough, but going with Texas A&M on this one
Arkansas/Ole Miss - knock off Arkansas
St. Bonaventure/La Salle - somebody take care of the Bonnies
Kent State/Buffalo - no more Buffalo
Richmond/Rhode Island - just knock off URI
Virginia/Miami - might as well go against Miami
South Carolina/Tennessee - take care of USC
LSU/Alabama - tough one, but knock off LSU

 

Bump.

[Dead Dog Alley]

27 minutes ago, rr52 said:

Some of these other bubble teams are flirting with being under .500 in conference. And yes I know that conference record isn't supposed to matter but how many teams have made the tourney with a record under .500 in the last 8-10 years?

 

By my count here's the teams that have gone under .500 in league play and made the tournament in the last 11 years.  Two of those years there were no teams, in another two years there were two teams, and every other year there was one.  Both of the years with two teams, those teams were from the same conference.

 

Kansas State, 2017
Oklahoma State, 2015
Texas, 2015
Oklahoma State, 2014
Illinois, 2013
Minnesota, 2013
Connecticut, 2012
Georgia Tech, 2010
Maryland, 2009
Arizona, 2008
Arkansas, 2007
 

Edited February 12, 2018 by Dead Dog Alley

[royalfan]

Thank heavens Marist don't play for a few days.  Those games are not good for my health.  

[brfrad]

1 hour ago, throwback said:

I'm with you - PSU is really talented and plays well when they're dialed in - Watkins and Carr are great players. They are really good - that's our toughest remaining game in my eyes.  Fortunately, PBA will be ready for No Sit Sunday II by then.

 

But they had some awful losses over the first half of the season, so they have to win out in the regular season I'd imagine, just to get to bubble talk. 

 

By the way, BTN has its Big Ten & Beyond show on after the PSU-Ill game and they just teased it, saying they were going to talk a ton about NU. PSU just about has put this game away, so that show should start in 5 minutes.

Wait a minute.  Everyone keeps telling me it doesn't matter how bad the teams are that beat you, but how good the teams are that you beat.  It's why Nebraska is not close to a bid in everyone's eyes.

[HuskerFever]

5 minutes ago, brfrad said:

Wait a minute.  Everyone keeps telling me it doesn't matter how bad the teams are that beat you, but how good the teams are that you beat.  It's why Nebraska is not close to a bid in everyone's eyes.

 

I think that's where the tiers are coming into play. It highlights the top wins and the bottom losses. Although you can argue what constitutes a Tier 1/2/3/4, but that's for another time.

 

They are also emphasizing SOS, RPI, SOR, KenPom, among other stats as well. So it's a little more intuitive in what is put in front of them come time to make selections.

[brfrad]

10 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

I think that's where the tiers are coming into play. It highlights the top wins and the bottom losses. Although you can argue what constitutes a Tier 1/2/3/4, but that's for another time.

 

They are also emphasizing SOS, RPI, SOR, KenPom, among other stats as well. So it's a little more intuitive in what is put in front of them come time to make selections.

It's just kind of annoying that everyone keeps harping that we have one quality win (one could argue we have two Minn at full strength)  However,  we haven't loss to a team we should have beat.  

 

Are we closer to the tourney if Gill's shot goes in against Kansas, but Palmer misses against Illinois?

[AuroranHusker]

6 minutes ago, brfrad said:

It's just kind of annoying that everyone keeps harping that we have one quality win (one could argue we have two Minn at full strength)  However,  we haven't loss to a team we should have beat.  

 

Are we closer to the tourney if Gill's shot goes in against Kansas, but Palmer misses against Illinois?

 

As long as NU could have also snagged that PSU win with a Roby three-ball at the buzzer in Happy Valley.

 

Personally, I've come to grips with that KU loss (and it's taken quite a long time to do so... but 7 of 8 in the victory department will do that!). I believe that PSU game to end the year will be massive revenge and possibly another "No Sit Sunday" moment for Nebrasketball.

[HuskerActuary]

9 hours ago, brfrad said:

Are we closer to the tourney if Gill's shot goes in against Kansas, but Palmer misses against Illinois?

Frustratingly, the answer is yes.

[hhcmatt]

18 hours ago, royalfan said:

The main problem with rooting for Michigan is that there are a certain number of spots available and it is not a large number.  Michigan has one of them now.  We don't.  I cannot get behind rooting for teams we need to pass to get in.  If the difference in our quality of win over them is impacted by them losing an extra game or two and it costs us, the flip side is that we actually could replace them.  After all the committee is aware of how many a league gets, even if they don't want to admit it.  And the Big 10 is getting at least 4 teams.  Right now Michigan is 4.  Not that is matters, as they are crushing Wisconsin, which is hurting our predictive measures since score matters and we played them twice.  Not good.  

 

The only problem with this reasoning is that Michigan will almost certainly qualify for the NCAA tournament.  Given that, is it more important for the slight RPI bumps for losing to an opponent we play twice or more important for our best win to have a higher profile?

[HuskerFever]

Lunardi's bubble watch through the conclusion of Feb. 11 games:

 

Last Four Byes
Arkansas - Thursday at Ole Miss, Saturday vs Texas A&M
Providence - Wednesday vs Villanova, Saturday at Butler
Washington - Thursday vs Utah, Saturday vs Colorado
Virginia Tech - Wednesday at Duke, Saturday at Georgia Tech

 

Last Four In
UCLA - Thursday vs Oregon State, Saturday vs Oregon
Kansas State - Wednesday at Oklahoma State, Saturday vs Iowa State
NC State - Wednesday at Syracuse, Saturday at Wake Forest
USC - Thursday vs Oregon, Saturday vs Oregon State

 

First Four Out
Boise State - Wednesday vs Nevada, Saturday vs Air Force
Nebraska - Tuesday vs Maryland, Sunday at Illinois
St. Bonaventure - Tuesday at La Salle, Friday vs Rhode Island
Syracuse - Wednesday vs NC State, Saturday at Miami

 

Next Four Out
Utah - Thursday at Washington, Saturday at Washington State
Temple - Thursday at Wichita State, Saturday vs Houston
Mississippi State - Wednesday at Vanderbilt, Saturday vs Ole Miss
Western Kentucky - Thursday at North Texas, Saturday at Rice

[Tallbaby21]

Guys, I'm making an executive decision that Providence is banned for getting smoked by DePaul at home. That has to be the worst loss of any team ahead of us. 

[royalfan]

2 hours ago, hhcdimes said:

 

The only problem with this reasoning is that Michigan will almost certainly qualify for the NCAA tournament.  Given that, is it more important for the slight RPI bumps for losing to an opponent we play twice or more important for our best win to have a higher profile?

 

I don't agree that they will almost certainly qualify, especially prior to Wisconsin game.  That is the main reason I don't want them to win.  They are taking one of the spots available to us.  

Edited February 12, 2018 by royalfan

[royalfan]

Notre Dame 71/North Carolina 9   6pm ESPN  N. Carolina - 10 1/2 We want N. Carolina to help eliminate ND and to help bump ND from Q1
East Tennessee State 63/UNC Greensboro 91- 6 pm ESPN3  UNC Greensboro -3 Need UNC Greensboro
Delaware State  350/Norfolk State 276 - 6 pm ESPNU  Norfolk St - 12 Need Delaware St. 
TCU 24/West Virginia  34 - 8pm ESPN2 West Virginia -8 Need West Virginia
Baylor  61/Texas  48 - 8pm ESPN  Texas - 2 1/2  Need Baylor

[HuskerFever]

We haven't encountered it yet, but semi-serious question for @royalfan or anyone else... at what point do we start picking opponents to beat Kentucky? They've got some strong SOS, RPI, BPI, etc. numbers, but the eye test just isn't there right now.

[royalfan]

I don't know, but we probably would be there now if they hadn't beaten West Virginia on the road recently.  

[Nebrasketball1979]

37 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

We haven't encountered it yet, but semi-serious question for @royalfan or anyone else... at what point do we start picking opponents to beat Kentucky? They've got some strong SOS, RPI, BPI, etc. numbers, but the eye test just isn't there right now.

 

Unfortunately I don't think our resume is even close to Kentucky.  Their losses are, at worst, equivalent to ours but in all reality a little better.  They have 9 wins against the RPI top 100, one of which was at West Virginia (RPI #34).  Of those 9 wins, 4 are against RPI Top 50.   We only have three wins against the RPI top 100, with our best coming at home to Michigan (RPI #38), which is also our only RPI Top 50 win.  We will likely be pulling for Kentucky to beat some of the other bubbly SEC teams (Miss St., Missouri, Arkansas, etc).

[49r]

Yep, Kentucky is a stone cold lock no doubt about it even if they lose all the rest of their games.  There are advantages to name recognition and Kentucky has the biggest name of them all right now.

[ShortDust]

29 minutes ago, 49r said:

Yep, Kentucky is a stone cold lock no doubt about it even if they lose all the rest of their games.  There are advantages to name recognition and Kentucky has the biggest name of them all right now.

Sad, but so true.

[royalfan]

Delaware St. continues to hammer our RPI.  Cannot schedule teams from that league ever again.  They all take "money" games and have shitty records so it just compounds the problem relentlessly.  

[HuskerFever]

13 minutes ago, royalfan said:

Delaware St. continues to hammer our RPI.  Cannot schedule teams from that league ever again.  They all take "money" games and have shitty records so it just compounds the problem relentlessly.  

 

Might as well switch to the ETSU game. They're down 2 just after half.

[hhcmatt]

28 minutes ago, royalfan said:

Delaware St. continues to hammer our RPI.  Cannot schedule teams from that league ever again.  They all take "money" games and have shitty records so it just compounds the problem relentlessly.  

 

We scheduled  a bad South Carolina St team from that conference and made the tourney with 19 wins.

[royalfan]

1 minute ago, hhcdimes said:

 

We scheduled  a bad South Carolina St team from that conference and made the tourney with 19 wins.

 

Is your point that you feel it is a good idea?

[hhcmatt]

10 minutes ago, royalfan said:

 

Is your point that you feel it is a good idea?

 

The point is that is that you're complaining about something we do literally every year because this year it might be an issue.