Nebraska on the Selection Committee Board

[royalfan]

Why is st Mary’s considered a near lock again?  Nothing about that resume looks particularly impressive to me.  Nor does the eye test.  

[HuskerActuary]

29 minutes ago, royalfan said:

Why is st Mary’s considered a near lock again?  Nothing about that resume looks particularly impressive to me.  Nor does the eye test.  

Most of the bracketologists I follow on twitter are saying St. Mary's should be very worried. Definitely not a lock in their eyes.

[ladyhusker]

Eliminate Stetson Marist and Delaware St games our RPI is 40 instead of 64.  Crazy, considering we won the damn games.  SOS would be 59 instead of 96.

You don't even have to go that far...just say we swapped Delaware State for a D2 team, as several other bubble teams did. That alone bumps our RPI to 48, and gives a better apples-to-apples picture with the teams who did just that. I can't see the rationale for ever penalizing a team that much for playing a team in their own division...if nothing else changes this offseason, that needs to be addressed.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[hskr4life]

 

Well... at least it’ll be one to the head and not 2 to the chest and we bleed to death.  They’ll either give us joy or put us out of if misery early.  

[big red22]

Number on thing I see is that Lunardi has Penn State ahead of us.  No way would Bruce Rasmussen say yeah Penn State deserves in over Nebraska.  He just witnessed us beating the piss out of them a week and a half ago.  We also are 4 games ahead of them in the conference.  Not 1 or 2 games, but 4.  There is no way looking past those things when selecting a team. 

 

Right now I am not seeing multiple teams Lunardi has listed ahead of us getting in, and I'll just leave it at that.  IMO we have about a 50/50 shot.

 

We need 6 of the following teams to lose early in their conference tournament and we are in

 

Alabama

Oklahoma State

Louisville

Syracuse

Texas

UCLA

Arizona State

Utah

Notre Dame

Marquette

Providence

Baylor

Kansas State

Mississippi State

 

^^^ I think the odds are about 50/50 that 6 of those teams struggle. 

[hskr4life]

42 minutes ago, big red22 said:

Number on thing I see is that Lunardi has Penn State ahead of us.  No way would Bruce Rasmussen say yeah Penn State deserves in over Nebraska.  He just witnessed us beating the piss out of them a week and a half ago.  We also are 4 games ahead of them in the conference.  Not 1 or 2 games, but 4.  There is no way looking past those things when selecting a team. 

 

Right now I am not seeing multiple teams Lunardi has listed ahead of us getting in, and I'll just leave it at that.  IMO we have about a 50/50 shot.

 

We need 6 of the following teams to lose early in their conference tournament and we are in

 

Alabama-- Go 0-1 or 1-1

Oklahoma State-- Go 0-1 or 1-1

Louisville-- Go 0-1

Syracuse-- Go 0-1 maybe 1-1

Texas-- Go 0-1

UCLA-- Go 0-1

Arizona State- Go 0-1 maybe 1-1

Utah- Go 0-1 maybe 1-1

Notre Dame- Go 0-1 or 1-1

Marquette- Go 0-1 or 1-1

Providence- Maybe go 0-1, but I think they are in.

Baylor- Go 0-1

Kansas State- Go 0-1

Mississippi State- Go 0-1 or 1-1.

 

^^^ I think the odds are about 50/50 that 6 of those teams struggle. 

If true, the above needs to happen.

 

Two outliers that are left out for me personally are.....

 

St. Mary's-- This is a team that has historically been left out in the past.  Their resume is eerily similar to ours (Minus the metrics).  They have one good win @Gonzaga.  But they also lost their Quad 1 home game against the Zags.  Their win @BYU is now a quad 1 though.  2-2 against Quad 2. Their resume is full of wins against teams in Quads 3-4 where they have two Quad 3 losses.  Also they played 26/33 games against Quads 3 and 4.  Nebraska played 20/32 games against Quads 3/4.

 

Oklahoma-  Technically finished as the 9 seed out of the 10 Big 10 teams.  If they would lose to OSU, they would have finished the year 4-11 in their last 15 games.  Their only wins would all be home games against KSU, Baylor, Iowa State, and KU.  They would have a loss to ISU and OSU in those 15 games.  Their metrics are inflated due to playing in the Big 12.  Would be an interesting case. 

 

 

Edited March 6, 2018 by hskr4life

[big red22]

16 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

If true, the above needs to happen.

 

Two outliers that are left out for me personally are.....

 

St. Mary's-- This is a team that has historically been left out in the past.  Their resume is eerily similar to ours (Minus the metrics).  They have one good win @Gonzaga.  But they also lost their Quad 1 home game against the Zags.  Their win @BYU is now a quad 1 though.  2-2 against Quad 2. Their resume is full of wins against teams in Quads 3-4 where they have two Quad 3 losses.  Also they played 26/33 games against Quads 3 and 4.  Nebraska played 20/32 games against Quads 3/4.

 

Oklahoma-  Technically finished as the 9 seed out of the 10 Big 10 teams.  If they would lose to OSU, they would have finished the year 4-11 in their last 15 games.  Their only wins would all be home games against KSU, Baylor, Iowa State, and KU.  They would have a loss to ISU and OSU in those 15 games.  Their metrics are inflated due to playing in the Big 12.  Would be an interesting case. 

 

 

What about the Bonnies?

[hskr4life]

2 minutes ago, big red22 said:

What about the Bonnies?

 

They have actually had a strong schedule than I though.  Only like 19/20 out of 30 games against Quads 3-4.  They are also 7-4 against Quads 1-2.  However, a few things that are working against them..... They have a Quad 3 AND a Quad 4 loss.  Thats right a big ole blemish on the resume with a Quad 4 loss at HOME.  4 of their Quad 1-2 wins are against Vermont, Buffalo, Canisius, and Northeastern.  I would say they are out if they lose to the Richmond/Duquesne winner.  We might be OK if they lose to Davidson.  They are probably in if they make the championship game, but stranger things have happened.  That Rhode Island win is looking worse and worse, and if Rhody drops another one, look out.

[big red22]

11 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

 

They have actually had a strong schedule than I though.  Only like 19/20 out of 30 games against Quads 3-4.  They are also 7-4 against Quads 1-2.  However, a few things that are working against them..... They have a Quad 3 AND a Quad 4 loss.  Thats right a big ole blemish on the resume with a Quad 4 loss at HOME.  4 of their Quad 1-2 wins are against Vermont, Buffalo, Canisius, and Northeastern.  I would say they are out if they lose to the Richmond/Duquesne winner.  We might be OK if they lose to Davidson.  They are probably in if they make the championship game, but stranger things have happened.  That Rhode Island win is looking worse and worse, and if Rhody drops another one, look out.

So basically we have a lot of chances, but we are not a shoe in

[big red22]

@hskr4life I don't think Texas is going to gain anything by beating Iowa State in the 1st round.  I think they will need 2 wins

[hskr4life]

27 minutes ago, big red22 said:

So basically we have a lot of chances, but we are not a shoe in

 

Like it has been hashed out on here over and over, it will all depend on what the committee looks at. Will they favor metrics more than the eye test?  Will they punish teams for not getting a lot of Tier 1/2 opportunities?  Will they award teams that stayed away from bad losses?  Do outside factors come into play (Our win against Minny, a 1 point loss to KU, $$$$ they would make for putting in the Huskers over say... St. Marys)?  The way I see it is that we certainly have a chance depending of how the committee looks at it.  However, we are no where near a shoe in depending on what they look at.  

 

8 minutes ago, big red22 said:

@hskr4life I don't think Texas is going to gain anything by beating Iowa State in the 1st round.  I think they will need 2 wins

 

I could see us possibly being OK if they lost to TTU, but how much does the committee take into account they were missing Bamba?  They also beat WVU without Bamba.  We really needed them to lose that WVU game.  I think, as long as they beat ISU, they probably have a good shot.  Nebraska VS Texas in Dayton anyone!?!?

[Huskerone]

I thought this was interesting.  TBS will announce all 68 teams at once, then the bracket. (Land of 10 - link)  

 

I guess we wont have to wait to know if Nebraska is in or not.

[GoBigRed]

2 hours ago, big red22 said:

Number on thing I see is that Lunardi has Penn State ahead of us.  No way would Bruce Rasmussen say yeah Penn State deserves in over Nebraska.  He just witnessed us beating the piss out of them a week and a half ago.  We also are 4 games ahead of them in the conference.  Not 1 or 2 games, but 4.  There is no way looking past those things when selecting a team. 

 

Right now I am not seeing multiple teams Lunardi has listed ahead of us getting in, and I'll just leave it at that.  IMO we have about a 50/50 shot.

 

We need 6 of the following teams to lose early in their conference tournament and we are in

 

Alabama

Oklahoma State

Louisville

Syracuse

Texas

UCLA

Arizona State

Utah

Notre Dame

Marquette

Providence

Baylor

Kansas State

Mississippi State

 

^^^ I think the odds are about 50/50 that 6 of those teams struggle. 

 

There are 1 or 2 surprises every year and there's no reason it can't be us this year. No one expects us to get in because of our lack of Quad 1 wins. Fine. The committee will discuss the Minnesota game and that will carry a lot of weight, borderline Quad 1 win weight in my opinion. They will discus our lack of opportunities to beat anybody significant at home other than Kansas (which was a buzzer beater). They will discuss the ESPN SOR ranking, which we are at 35 right now and historically the top 40 is safe for an at-large spot. They will discuss the notion of putting a bunch of teams with losing conference records in the NCAA Tournament. They will discuss how the Big Ten is not nearly as bad as all of the bracketologists are claiming it is. There are a lot of things that can be discussed in our favor, it is just that none of the "bracketologists" dive that deeply into it. They are surface bracketologists, looking purely at numbers and ridiculous metrics like RPI. Drop Delaware State from our schedule and our RPI is 48. If you're going to use a metric like that where 48 to 63 is determined by playing one atrocious Division I team instead of an atrocious Division II team, then God help us all. 

[hskr4life]

Just now, MilesDavis said:

 

There are 1 or 2 surprises every year and there's no reason it can't be us this year. No one expects us to get in because of our lack of Quad 1 wins. Fine. The committee will discuss the Minnesota game and that will carry a lot of weight, borderline Quad 1 win weight in my opinion. They will discus our lack of opportunities to beat anybody significant at home other than Kansas (which was a buzzer beater). They will discuss the ESPN SOR ranking, which we are at 35 right now and historically the top 40 is safe for an at-large spot. They will discuss the notion of putting a bunch of teams with losing conference records in the NCAA Tournament. They will discuss how the Big Ten is not nearly as bad as all of the bracketologists are claiming it is. There are a lot of things that can be discussed in our favor, it is just that none of the "bracketologists" dive that deeply into it. They are surface bracketologists, looking purely at numbers and ridiculous metrics like RPI. Drop Delaware State from our schedule and our RPI is 48. If you're going to use a metric like that where 48 to 63 is determined by playing one atrocious Division I team instead of an atrocious Division II team, then God help us all. 

 

To me, there is a reason we are still in Joeys Next 4 out.  It isn't because we don't have a shot and it isn't because he thinks we don't have a shot.  There must be at least a little uncertainty if we are still there.

[GoBigRed]

To continue my rant: 

 

SOR RK: Rank of Strength of Record (SOR) among all Division I teams. SOR reflects the chance a typical 25th ranked team would have team's record or better, given the schedule on a 0 to 100 scale, where 100 is best.

 

35. Nebraska

38. Texas

40. Marquette

41. Baylor

42. Butler

43. Missouri

45. Oklahoma State

46. Louisville

47. Providence

49. St. Mary's

50. Syracuse

52. UCLA

57. Penn State

59. Notre Dame

60. USC

62. Arizona State

64. Utah

65. Alabama

73. Washington

 

 

[GoBigRed]

All you Twitter snappers can take that SOR I just did and post it and share it all over the Interwebs for all I care. What do you think is more telling of Rider: the 67th best team in the country (RPI) or the 100th best team in the country (SOR)? Or Northeastern: 55 RPI, 84 SOR. Would you rather play at 55 RPI Northeastern, or at 87 RPI Oklahoma State? Yeah I'll take Northeastern every day and twice on Sundays. Northeastern lost to Ohio State by 25. Penn State beat Ohio State three times. Penn State has an RPI of 80, but look at their SOR: 57. 

 

There is a reason the SOR much more significantly resembles the tournament field than the RPI. Why the quad system utilizes RPI is a travesty and one that should seriously be investigated. 

 

How in the hell does Northeastern have an RPI of 55? Their best wins are #56 at home, #84 at home, #94 at home and away. Their worst losses are to #163 neutral and #242 away. So what's the deal? Well, their worst RPI opponents are 242, 242, 247, 247, 247, 273, 273. Nebraska's are: 263, 324, 326, 351. Basically the RPI says we suck because Tim Miles couldn't read into the future that Eastern Illinois, Stetson, Marist and Delaware State were going to be absolutely pathetic at basketball. And this is where the "they have a weak non-conference SOS, they didn't play anybody" talk comes from. It's asinine. We played at Creighton, Kansas, at St. John's, but because the awful teams we scheduled turned out to be more awful than usual "we didn't play anybody." Who gives a flying **** if you beat the 200 RPI or the 350 RPI. It is seriously all the same thing. And yet it DRASTICALLY impacts your RPI. If all the power 5 teams would stop playing these craptastic teams, their athletic departments would all cease to exist. Does the NCAA want to encourage that? If nobody takes on Delaware State and their pathetic metrics, then good luck to them surviving without guarantee checks. 

 

If you replace Delaware State, Marist, Stetson and Eastern Illinois with wins over say: Elon, North Dakota State, Lamar, Western Carolina - all at home - then our RPI is 38 instead of 68. You think we wouldn't beat the snot out of those teams? Sorry for the rant, this stuff infuriates me and it is disgusting that people make an extremely comfortable living to make decisions based off this asinine metric. When the entire quad system is based off what your RPI is, and this proves what a crapshoot the RPI is, then why is it the foundation for your selection process. 

Edited March 6, 2018 by MilesDavis

[big red22]

50 minutes ago, MilesDavis said:

To continue my rant: 

 

SOR RK: Rank of Strength of Record (SOR) among all Division I teams. SOR reflects the chance a typical 25th ranked team would have team's record or better, given the schedule on a 0 to 100 scale, where 100 is best.

 

35. Nebraska

38. Texas

40. Marquette

41. Baylor

42. Butler

43. Missouri

45. Oklahoma State

46. Louisville

47. Providence

49. St. Mary's

50. Syracuse

52. UCLA

57. Penn State

59. Notre Dame

60. USC

62. Arizona State

64. Utah

65. Alabama

73. Washington

 

 

I have been saying this for the last 2 weeks.  Since 2012 only 6 teams below 40 in the SOR have been left out and one of them was UConn who was ineligible in 2013.

 

@MilesDavis on page 60 of the "Selection Committee Games of Interest" thread I break down each year from 2012 till today of who was in and who was out for SOR between 30-39

Edited March 6, 2018 by big red22

[Huskerpapa]

This is the only believable site...trust Terry Pettit...79% chance that we are in the dance.  Projected as a 12 seed.

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

1 hour ago, MilesDavis said:

All you Twitter snappers can take that SOR I just did and post it and share it all over the Interwebs for all I care. What do you think is more telling of Rider: the 67th best team in the country (RPI) or the 100th best team in the country (SOR)? Or Northeastern: 55 RPI, 84 SOR. Would you rather play at 55 RPI Northeastern, or at 87 RPI Oklahoma State? Yeah I'll take Northeastern every day and twice on Sundays. Northeastern lost to Ohio State by 25. Penn State beat Ohio State three times. Penn State has an RPI of 80, but look at their SOR: 57. 

 

There is a reason the SOR much more significantly resembles the tournament field than the RPI. Why the quad system utilizes RPI is a travesty and one that should seriously be investigated. 

 

How in the hell does Northeastern have an RPI of 55? Their best wins are #56 at home, #84 at home, #94 at home and away. Their worst losses are to #163 neutral and #242 away. So what's the deal? Well, their worst RPI opponents are 242, 242, 247, 247, 247, 273, 273. Nebraska's are: 263, 324, 326, 351. Basically the RPI says we suck because Tim Miles couldn't read into the future that Eastern Illinois, Stetson, Marist and Delaware State were going to be absolutely pathetic at basketball. And this is where the "they have a weak non-conference SOS, they didn't play anybody" talk comes from. It's asinine. We played at Creighton, Kansas, at St. John's, but because the awful teams we scheduled turned out to be more awful than usual "we didn't play anybody." Who gives a flying **** if you beat the 200 RPI or the 350 RPI. It is seriously all the same thing. And yet it DRASTICALLY impacts your RPI. If all the power 5 teams would stop playing these craptastic teams, their athletic departments would all cease to exist. Does the NCAA want to encourage that? If nobody takes on Delaware State and their pathetic metrics, then good luck to them surviving without guarantee checks. 

 

If you replace Delaware State, Marist, Stetson and Eastern Illinois with wins over say: Elon, North Dakota State, Lamar, Western Carolina - all at home - then our RPI is 38 instead of 68. You think we wouldn't beat the snot out of those teams? Sorry for the rant, this stuff infuriates me and it is disgusting that people make an extremely comfortable living to make decisions based off this asinine metric. When the entire quad system is based off what your RPI is, and this proves what a crapshoot the RPI is, then why is it the foundation for your selection process. 

 

I definitely agree with what you're saying about RPI vs SOR. RPI is definitely flawed. Still, the biggest knock against us is quality of wins, not quality of opponents. I don't hear Lunardi or anyone saying our RPI is too low (maybe they mention it at times, but it's not their main argument). Whether or not the committee cares about RPI, the fact is still that we only have one win against a tournament team, and it was at home. You can kind of count Minnesota, but it was also at home.

[big red22]

Go to the te

45 minutes ago, huskercwg said:

This is the only believable site...trust Terry Pettit...79% chance that we are in the dance.  Projected as a 12 seed.

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/

If you look at the link below you will see why teamrankings.com has us in, and it is quite clear why they do. It's because just like multiple other "Non-RPI" metrics use some common sense.

 

Look at the records... they are separated by 1-25, 26-50 and 51-100

 

Would you look at that we are 9-3 vs 51-100... That sure looks a hell of a lot better than 4-9 against RPI Top 100 doesn't it?

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/predictive-by-other/

Edited March 6, 2018 by big red22

[huskerbaseball13]

15 minutes ago, big red22 said:

Go to the te

If you look at the link below you will see why teamrankings.com has us in, and it is quite clear why they do. It's because just like multiple other "Non-RPI" metrics use some common sense.

 

Look at the records... they are separated by 1-25, 26-50 and 51-100

 

Would you look at that we are 9-3 vs 51-100... That sure looks a hell of a lot better than 4-9 against RPI Top 100 doesn't it?

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/predictive-by-other/

 

It does look a lot better...the issue is that team rankings stats or metrics won't be on our team sheet come Sunday.  Our record in regards to the RPI will be.  It's just another website that tries to forecast what will happen Sunday but their track record is not great in that regard.  We just have to hope that the committee doesn't use all the metrics as end all be all and some human element takes over and they don't leave out a team that won 13 games in the Big Ten. 

[big red22]

27 minutes ago, huskerbaseball13 said:

 

It does look a lot better...the issue is that team rankings stats or metrics won't be on our team sheet come Sunday.  Our record in regards to the RPI will be.  It's just another website that tries to forecast what will happen Sunday but their track record is not great in that regard.  We just have to hope that the committee doesn't use all the metrics as end all be all and some human element takes over and they don't leave out a team that won 13 games in the Big Ten. 

Kenpom will be used and it is a hell of lot closer to Team Rankings then the RPI

[huskerbaseball13]

5 minutes ago, big red22 said:

Kenpom will be used and it is a hell of lot closer to Team Rankings then the RPI

 

True, but sans Providence/Utah just about every other bubble team is ranked ahead of us in KenPom.  Some by a very wide margin unfortunately.   

[49r]

 

[big red22]

4 minutes ago, huskerbaseball13 said:

 

True, but sans Providence/Utah just about every other bubble team is ranked ahead of us in KenPom.  Some by a very wide margin unfortunately.   

Same with Teamrankings... For the record I am not guaranteeing we are in by any stretch, but our chances are much better than slim to none.  I'd put us at 50%+