Road to 20

[Donkey]

10 hours ago, hskr4life said:

 

 

Wait, wait, wait,.  Your trying to tell me a Big 10 team who goes 15-3 in conference would need a deep tourney run?  And if we go 13-5 we’re out?

 

We have 2 losses already. 2 additional losses would be 14-4; we would be in. 13-5 would require BIG semifinal or better (if we are a top 4 seed that means 1 win, 5 seed would mean 2 wins). 12-6 bubble. 11-7 NIT. 

 

Assuming only 4-5 BIG schools go dancing (right now 4 are projected), Purdue, MSU, and tOSU would be in today. That leaves us, Michigan, and Maryland vying for the 4 and, possibly, 5 spot. 

[Dead Dog Alley]

9 minutes ago, Donkey said:

 

We have 2 losses already. 2 additional losses would be 14-4; we would be in. 13-5 would require BIG semifinal or better (if we are a top 4 seed that means 1 win, 5 seed would mean 2 wins). 12-6 bubble. 11-7 NIT. 

 

Assuming only 4-5 BIG schools go dancing (right now 4 are projected), Purdue, MSU, and tOSU would be in today. That leaves us, Michigan, and Maryland vying for the 4 and, possibly, 5 spot. 

 

The committee would never leave a 13-5 Big Ten team out, no matter how poor of a year the conference had.  A 12-6 team is another matter, if we somehow did manage to go 12-6 we'd still be on the bubble.  So far we don't have a win against a team that will likely be in the Tournament, and we might only have two more games against teams that will make it (@ Ohio State, Michigan; I wouldn't count on Northwestern, Minnesota, Maryland, or Penn State to make it from how their seasons are trending.)  So conceivably we could be 12-6, 21-10 overall going into the Big Ten tournament with a 1-5 or 0-6 record against the NCAA field, which would probably not get us in without an upset win in the conference tournament.  And to go 12-6 they can only sweep the four games they should win (Indiana, Illinois, Rutgers, Penn State) and only slip up three times in all of the toss up games (Michigan, Maryland, @ Penn State, @ Illinois, @ Wisconsin, @ Rutgers, @ Minnesota).

[hskr4life]

33 minutes ago, Donkey said:

 

We have 2 losses already. 2 additional losses would be 14-4; we would be in. 13-5 would require BIG semifinal or better (if we are a top 4 seed that means 1 win, 5 seed would mean 2 wins). 12-6 bubble. 11-7 NIT. 

 

Assuming only 4-5 BIG schools go dancing (right now 4 are projected), Purdue, MSU, and tOSU would be in today. That leaves us, Michigan, and Maryland vying for the 4 and, possibly, 5 spot. 

 

This makes more sense.  Thanks for the clarification.  I didn’t know you were talking the rest of the way out.

[Donkey]

21 hours ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

 

The committee would never leave a 13-5 Big Ten team out, no matter how poor of a year the conference had.  A 12-6 team is another matter, if we somehow did manage to go 12-6 we'd still be on the bubble.  So far we don't have a win against a team that will likely be in the Tournament, and we might only have two more games against teams that will make it (@ Ohio State, Michigan; I wouldn't count on Northwestern, Minnesota, Maryland, or Penn State to make it from how their seasons are trending.)  So conceivably we could be 12-6, 21-10 overall going into the Big Ten tournament with a 1-5 or 0-6 record against the NCAA field, which would probably not get us in without an upset win in the conference tournament.  And to go 12-6 they can only sweep the four games they should win (Indiana, Illinois, Rutgers, Penn State) and only slip up three times in all of the toss up games (Michigan, Maryland, @ Penn State, @ Illinois, @ Wisconsin, @ Rutgers, @ Minnesota).

 

You do realize that the NCAA Selection Committee announced a new process for selecting school, correct?

 

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-committee-to-emphasize-road-results-in-new-bracket-process/

 

Right now we are weak in Column 1. We simply need to limit losses and avoid bad losses. And RPI is not favorable for the BIG. http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/groupId/7

Edited January 12, 2018 by Donkey

[Dead Dog Alley]

1 minute ago, Donkey said:

 

You do realize that the NCAA Selection Committee announced a new process for selecting school, correct?

 

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-committee-to-emphasize-road-results-in-new-bracket-process/

 

Right now we are weak in Column 1. We simply need to limit losses and avoid bad losses. 

 

Yes.  But I'm saying that when the rubber hits the road they would never leave a 13-5 Big Ten team out.

[Art Vandalay]

1 hour ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

 

Yes.  But I'm saying that when the rubber hits the road they would never leave a 13-5 Big Ten team out.

 

Absolutely agree, I have a hard time not thinking we would be in at 12-6 and 11 wins gets us on the bubble with the tourney to go. The BIG10 still has clout with the committe even in a down year.

[HuskerFever]

21 hours ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

 

The committee would never leave a 13-5 Big Ten team out, no matter how poor of a year the conference had.  A 12-6 team is another matter, if we somehow did manage to go 12-6 we'd still be on the bubble.

 

As a sanity check, here's a look at how the top three Big Ten teams have played out in the last few years:

 

2016-2017: (1) 14-4, (2) 12-6, (3) 12-6

2015-2016: (1) 15-3, (2) 13-5, (3) 12-6

2014-2015: (1) 16-2, (2) 14-4, (3) 12-6

2013-2014: (1) 15-3, (2) 12-6, (3) 12-6

2012-2013: (1) 14-4, (2) 13-5, (3) 13-5

 

I'm with you, @Dead Dog Alley. A 13-5 record historically places you in the top 2 or 3, and a 12-6 record puts you in the top 3. I don't care what method a committee uses to select teams, there will be at least 3 teams selected out of the Big Ten even on a down year.

 

And a reality check says that a minimum 13-5 conference record has only occurred to 9 Big Ten teams over the last 5 years (minimum 12-6 has occurred to 22 teams in the last 5 years).

[NeeandMe]

Let's update this 

[Donkey]

1.  The Penn State loss is hard to judge.  If you rely on KenPom (#54), the loss was acceptable.  If you rely on RPI (#128), its Nebraska's worst loss this season.  It really comes down to which ranking the committee relies on.

 

2.  Sticking with my original projection; tOSU (RPI 19, KP 12) is an acceptable loss provided it is not a blowout.  Losing both to Maryland and Minnesota in close games with no other losses would leave us 13-5.  I still think 1-2 wins in the BIG tourney would have us dancing.  I know other posters disagree, I just feel the BIG will only take 4-5 schools with MSU, tOSU, and Purdue already in.  We need to firmly establish we are the 4th best team to be in.  Right now, all of Maryland's losses are against top 50 RPI schools but they have only 2 top 100 wins.  Michigan has 2 losses against 51-100 ranked schools with the remaining loss to top 50 RPI schools, but Michigan has 3 top 50 RPI wins.

 

Upcoming key games (assuming Michigan, Nebraska, and Maryland win all other games):

 

Nebraska: tOSU, Maryland, Minnesota

 

Michigan: Purdue, tOSU, Minnesota, and Maryland.  

 

Maryland: MSU, Purdue, Nebraska, and Michigan.  

 

I would not be surprised to see Maryland lose all those 4 games.  Conversely, I could see Michigan going 4-0 or 3-1.  Michigan would be the 4/5 seed (depending how things play out for us) in that set of circumstances.  That would leave Nebraska and Michigan fighting for the pretty much certain 4th BIG spot with a 5th spot still possible.

 

Both Nebraska and Michigan will be dancing at 14-4 (meaning BIG teams make the tourney).  13-5 and then we need to start looking at the losses and BIG tourney wins.

 

Caveat: all of the above falls apart if Nebraska loses to any school other tOSU, Maryland, and Minnesota. 

 

 

[OmahaHusker]

4 minutes ago, Donkey said:

Caveat: all of the above falls apart if Nebraska loses to any school other tOSU, Maryland, and Minnesota. 

 

 

 

That is one tall order. One game at a time. The games at Rutgers and Wisconsin scare me the most.

[AuroranHusker]

5 hours ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

That is one tall order. One game at a time. The games at Rutgers and Wisconsin scare me the most.

 

Truly one game at a time would be Ohio State, which is probably the toughest game left on the schedule. Let's go & get a dub, Big Red. The four games in 8 days is rather brutal....

 

 

Edited January 19, 2018 by AuroranHusker

[OmahaHusker]

2 minutes ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

Truly one game at a time would be Ohio State, which is probably the toughest game left on the schedule. Let's go & get a dub, Big Red. The three games in 6 days is rather brutal....

 

Well ya....but I was talking about the games that scare me in the realm of the games we absolutely can't drop. If we lose any games other than OSU, Minny, or Maryland it's over.

[hskr4life]

Just now, OmahaHusker said:

 

Well ya....but I was talking about the games that scare me in the realm of the games we absolutely can't drop. If we lose any games other than OSU, Minny, or Maryland it's over.

 

Not quite “over.”  Especially road games.  Win the rest at home.  That’s the first step.  Steal a few on the road and that puts you at 12-13 wins.  Certainly not “over” in that scenario.

 

Just win though and that’s all I care about! We can walk the walk this year so we don’t have to worry about talking the talk.

[AuroranHusker]

4 hours ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

Well ya....but I was talking about the games that scare me in the realm of the games we absolutely can't drop. If we lose any games other than OSU, Minny, or Maryland it's over.

 

Gotcha. They all scare me, the Big Ten is a grind. That 4 games in an 8 day stretch is going to be rough.... OSU on the 22nd, Rutgers on the 24th, then Iowa at home on the 27th, followed by a game at Wisconsin on the 29th.

 

 

Edited January 19, 2018 by AuroranHusker

[big red22]

• 13-5 - Yeah if we aren't in Miles might burn down the NCAA headquarters
• 12-6 - We are in... Boston College is looking to be a good win, and the committee will see that Minnesota was full strength when we took them down.
• 11-7 - We will need to make a run in the B1G Tournament unless the 11 wins include @Ohio St. and @Minnesota
• 10-8 -  NIT
• 9-9 - Need to win a tournament game to make the NIT

 

St. Johns is the team that could screw us, what a bunch of quitters!

Edited January 19, 2018 by big red22

[throwback]

Road to 20 regular season wins - UPDATED

5 Must Wins

•  Wisconsin - WIN
•  Illinois - WIN
• Iowa
• Rutgers
• Indiana

 

Split These 6

• at Rutgers
• at Wisconsin
• at Minnesota
• at Illinois
• Penn St
• Maryland

 

 Just Get 1

•  at Penn St
• at Ohio St
•  Michigan - WIN

 

Still right on track - a win Monday would be huge obviously -- would almost be like a 'bonus' win -- but then 3 big road games (Rutg, Minn, Wis) that could set things up for a fun finish. Really nasty part of the schedule coming up with so many games in a short time frame.

 

(Oh and don't lose to Iowa in the middle of that stretch. For the love of God, don't lose to Iowa.)

 

Edited January 19, 2018 by throwback

[Norm Peterson]

21 minutes ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

Well ya....but I was talking about the games that scare me in the realm of the games we absolutely can't drop. If we lose any games other than OSU, Minny, or Maryland it's over.

 

I think we have to win out at home, but that is definitely doable.  Toughest home test was last night and we passed.

 

I think we also probably need two road wins and one of them has to be Rutgers.  If the other road win is Ohio State, I think we're in.  If we lose to Ohio State but pick up an additional road win against, say, Illinois, then we might need a win in the Big Ten tourney.

 

If we should happen to pick up a W in Columbus our path is made much easier.  Still have to win out at home, still have to not drop a road contest at Rutgers (the very next game, right?), but the path is certainly a bit easier if that happens.

 

Bottom line:  What I saw last night tells me this team is good enough to dance.  We don't have to hope for luck.  This team is good enough to win the games they need to win to get in.  And then heaven help whoever they draw because they'll be underseeded, and a team that should be playing the winner of the Southland Conference tournament will end up playing a Husker team with something to prove.

Edited January 19, 2018 by Norm Peterson

[throwback]

8 minutes ago, big red22 said:

• 13-5 - Yeah if we aren't in Miles might burn down the NCAA headquarters
• 12-6 - We are in... Boston College is looking to be a good win, and the committee will see that Minnesota was full strength when we took them down.
• 11-7 - We will need to make a run in the B1G Tournament unless the 11 wins include @Ohio St. and @Minnesota
• 10-8 -  NIT
• 9-9 - Need to win a tournament game to make the NIT

 

St. Johns is the team that could screw us, what a bunch of quitters!

This is spot on - NCAA isn't leaving out a 12-6 Big Ten team, although we probably couldn't afford a loss to a #12 or #13 seed in Big Ten tournament.

 

11-7 will be tough without a win over a higher seed in the Big Ten tourney.

 

20 total wins in the regular season gives us a shot going into the Big Ten Tourney, but 21 in the regular season would make me feel a lot more comfortable.

 

[OmahaHusker]

30 minutes ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

Gotcha. They all scare me, the Big Ten is a grind. That 3 games in 6 day stretch is going to be rough.... OSU on the 22nd, Rutgers on the 24th, and then Iowa at home on the 27th.

 

Ya that stretch is brutal. If we play with the intensity we did last night this team can go places.

[Art Vandalay]

1 hour ago, throwback said:

This is spot on - NCAA isn't leaving out a 12-6 Big Ten team, although we probably couldn't afford a loss to a #12 or #13 seed in Big Ten tournament.

 

11-7 will be tough without a win over a higher seed in the Big Ten tourney.

 

20 total wins in the regular season gives us a shot going into the Big Ten Tourney, but 21 in the regular season would make me feel a lot more comfortable.

 

 

Heck I believe Miles said 10 wins and a game or two in the tourney gets us there in his opinion. I am feeling good with 11 wins and if we get a tourney win on top I feel real good. 12 is a no brainer. BIG10 will get at least 5 team min.

[AuroranHusker]

13 minutes ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

Ya that stretch is brutal. If we play with the intensity we did last night this team can go places.

 

I looked again, it's 4 games in eight days, and three of the 4 on the road !!!!

[Norm Peterson]

I would feel far more comfortable getting to 12 league wins.

 

Win out at home (that's 5) plus a win at Rutgers (a must) and one other road win, doesn't matter which, but if it's against Ohio State, that'll really help.  

 

And that gets us to 12-6.

[Norm Peterson]

If we beat Ohio State and Rutgers on the road in the next two games, we'll be talking seeding instead of bubbles.  So long as we don't piss Iowa down our leg the next game after that.

[AuroranHusker]

5 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

If we beat Ohio State and Rutgers on the road in the next two games, we'll be talking seeding instead of bubbles.  So long as we don't piss Iowa down our leg the next game after that.

 

That would be a 5-game winning streak going into Wisconsin on Monday, January 29th. Nebrasketball has a B1G opportunity ahead of 'em in the next 10 days !!!

 

[SkersHoops]

Quadrant update:

 

The breakdown will be as follows:
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75   
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.

 

Current:

Q1: L's @ St. J's, @ Mich St., @ PukeBirds, vs. KU, @ Purdue  (0-5)  

Q2: W's vs. BC, vs. Minn, @ NW,  vs. Wisky, vs. Mich, L UCF*, L @ PSU,     (5-2) STILL SOLID!   

Q3: W LB St.*, vs. Illinois (2-0)

Q4: Rest (7-0)   

 

Q1: (0-5)

Q2: (5-2)

Q3: (2-0)

Q4: (7-0)

 

Good News:  We beat (destroyed) Michigan.  

Bad News:  It was a Quadrant 2 win, not a Q1.

 

But....... Look at our Q2-Q4 record!!! 14-2, and the 2 losses were in Quadrant 2!!!! That is solid!!!!  We only have 2 shots at Q1's left (not counting B1G tourney)

 

Remaining:

Q1 remaining: @ OSU, @ Minn, (2)  

Q2 remaining:  @ Wis, vs. Mary,  (2)

Q3 remaining: @ Rutgers, vs. Iowa, @ Ill, vs. Indiana, vs. Penn St. (5)

Q4 remaining: vs. Rutgers (1) 

Edited January 19, 2018 by SkersHoops