49r Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 Here is our neighborhood: RANK PREVIOUS SCHOOL CONFERENCE RECORD ROAD NEUTRAL HOME NON DIV I 65 62 Missouri St. MVC 12-3 3-1 3-1 5-1 1-0 66 70 Gonzaga WCC 12-3 1-1 2-2 9-0 0-0 67 61 William & Mary CAA 9-4 3-4 0-0 4-0 2-0 68 63 Western Ky. C-USA 10-5 1-2 2-1 6-2 1-0 69 80 Elon CAA 10-5 2-5 1-0 5-0 2-0 70 67 Illinois St. MVC 8-6 2-3 2-1 3-2 1-0 71 68 Belmont OVC 10-5 4-4 0-0 6-1 0-0 72 69 Vermont America East 9-5 3-4 3-1 2-0 1-0 73 71 BYU WCC 12-3 3-0 2-1 7-2 0-0 74 72 Notre Dame ACC 11-3 2-1 2-1 6-1 1-0 75 73 Wyoming MWC 10-4 1-2 2-1 6-1 1-0 76 65 Towson CAA 10-5 1-5 5-0 2-0 2-0 77 90 Nebraska Big Ten 11-5 1-3 2-1 8-1 0-0 78 76 South Dakota St. Summit League 12-5 2-3 2-2 4-0 4-0 79 77 Virginia Tech ACC 11-3 1-2 1-1 9-0 0-0 80 79 Iowa St. Big 12 9-4 0-1 4-0 5-3 0-0 81 78 Furman SoCon 10-4 2-3 2-0 4-1 2-0 82 82 UNI MVC 8-6 0-2 2-2 4-2 2-0 83 81 Utah Valley WAC 11-5 3-4 0-0 5-1 3-0 84 83 Louisiana Sun Belt 12-3 4-2 2-1 4-0 2-0 85 89 Radford Big South 8-6 3-6 2-0 1-0 2-0 Quote
Norm Peterson Posted January 3, 2018 Author Report Posted January 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, 49r said: @Norm Peterson I scrape that data from the RPI Forecast site http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Nebraska.html It hasn't been updated yet to include the win last night but so far they have us slotted right at .500 still: Final Record Expected RPI Probability 22-9 45.7 0.03% 21-10 56.2 0.24% 20-11 69.0 0.92% 19-12 81.6 2.89% 18-13 98.7 7.10% 17-14 116.6 14.74% 16-15 136.0 20.76% 15-16 155.2 21.95% 14-17 173.3 17.04% 13-18 190.0 9.68% 12-19 206.2 3.54% 11-20 220.2 1.02% 10-21 235.2 0.08% Which one is the site that predicts the likelihood of us winning each of our remaining games? Quote
aphilso1 Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 (edited) 46 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said: Which one is the site that predicts the likelihood of us winning each of our remaining games? It's at the same link that 49r gave, just further down the page. Apparently we only had a 21% chance of winning last night. 4% chance at Purdue, although one would expect the odds to at least double given our win @NW. Edited January 3, 2018 by aphilso1 Quote
aphilso1 Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 Also of note, RPI forecast only gave us a 50% or greater chance at victory in three more games prior to the NW victory being calculated into the equation. I'm interested to see how that changes with one extra positive data point. Quote
49r Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, aphilso1 said: Also of note, RPI forecast only gave us a 50% or greater chance at victory in three more games prior to the NW victory being calculated into the equation. I'm interested to see how that changes with one extra positive data point. I'm kind of surprised at how long it's taking for the site to update, but yeah I am also interested to see what changes. Quote
AuroranHusker Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 49r said: I'm kind of surprised at how long it's taking for the site to update, but yeah I am also interested to see what changes. Perhaps no one knows what to do with the rise of Nebrasketball.... like the phoenix (or something). Quote
Norm Peterson Posted January 3, 2018 Author Report Posted January 3, 2018 Keep us posted, guys. Thanks! Quote
Norm Peterson Posted January 3, 2018 Author Report Posted January 3, 2018 I don't know how to copy and paste charts, so if one of you guys could do the honors. Meanwhile, just so we have the data ... Date Opponent (Expected RPI) Conf Location Score Outcome Prob(W) Spread 11-11 Eastern Illinois (278.1) OVC H 72-68 W 100% 0.0 11-13 North Texas (209.4) CUSA H 86-67 W 100% 0.0 11-16 St. John's (60.3) BE A 79-56 L 0% 0.0 11-19 North Dakota (254.7) BSky H 92-70 W 100% 0.0 11-23 UCF (68.4) Amer N 68-59 L 0% 0.0 11-24 Marist (312.5) MAAC N 59-84 W 100% 0.0 11-26 Long Beach St. (213.2) BW N 85-80 W 100% 0.0 11-29 Boston College (110.2) ACC H 71-62 W 100% 0.0 12-3 Michigan St. (13.6) B10 A 86-57 L 0% 0.0 12-5 Minnesota (70.7) B10 H 78-68 W 100% 0.0 12-9 Creighton (29.5) BE A 75-65 L 0% 0.0 12-16 Kansas (5.4) B12 H 72-73 L 0% 0.0 12-20 UTSA (218.8) CUSA H 104-94 W 100% 0.0 12-22 Delaware St. (349.2) MEAC H 85-68 W 100% 0.0 12-29 Stetson (292.6) ASun H 71-62 W 100% 0.0 1-2 Northwestern (87.1) B10 A 0-0 21% -9.4 1-6 Purdue (10.9) B10 A 0-0 4% -19.9 1-9 Wisconsin (115.3) B10 H 0-0 47% -1.0 1-12 Penn St. (86.6) B10 A 0-0 21% -9.4 1-15 Illinois (109.7) B10 H 0-0 48% -0.5 1-18 Michigan (48.6) B10 H 0-0 29% -6.2 1-22 Ohio St. (63.1) B10 A 0-0 20% -9.6 1-24 Rutgers (193.4) B10 A 0-0 43% -2.1 1-27 Iowa (144.4) B10 H 0-0 50% -0.1 1-29 Wisconsin (115.3) B10 A 0-0 26% -7.3 2-6 Minnesota (70.7) B10 A 0-0 18% -10.3 2-10 Rutgers (193.4) B10 H 0-0 64% 4.2 2-13 Maryland (37.0) B10 H 0-0 29% -6.5 2-18 Illinois (109.7) B10 A 0-0 27% -6.8 2-20 Indiana (131.0) B10 H 0-0 53% 0.8 2-25 Penn St. (86.6) B10 H 0-0 39% -3.1 O Quote
Norm Peterson Posted January 3, 2018 Author Report Posted January 3, 2018 Oh, shit, it almost worked. Let's try it again: 1-2 Northwestern (87.1) B10 A 0-0 21% -9.4 1-6 Purdue (10.9) B10 A 0-0 4% -19.9 1-9 Wisconsin (115.3) B10 H 0-0 47% -1.0 1-12 Penn St. (86.6) B10 A 0-0 21% -9.4 1-15 Illinois (109.7) B10 H 0-0 48% -0.5 1-18 Michigan (48.6) B10 H 0-0 29% -6.2 1-22 Ohio St. (63.1) B10 A 0-0 20% -9.6 1-24 Rutgers (193.4) B10 A 0-0 43% -2.1 1-27 Iowa (144.4) B10 H 0-0 50% -0.1 1-29 Wisconsin (115.3) B10 A 0-0 26% -7.3 2-6 Minnesota (70.7) B10 A 0-0 18% -10.3 2-10 Rutgers (193.4) B10 H 0-0 64% 4.2 2-13 Maryland (37.0) B10 H 0-0 29% -6.5 2-18 Illinois (109.7) B10 A 0-0 27% -6.8 2-20 Indiana (131.0) B10 H 0-0 53% 0.8 2-25 Penn St. (86.6) B10 H 0-0 39% -3.1 Quote
Norm Peterson Posted January 3, 2018 Author Report Posted January 3, 2018 Why won't it do PSU at the bottom? For the record, 39% chance of beating PSU at home at the end of the year. I think our odds are better than that, but what do I know. Quote
49r Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said: Why won't it do PSU at the bottom? For the record, 39% chance of beating PSU at home at the end of the year. I think our odds are better than that, but what do I know. Norm, the trick is after you paste the table into the editor, you have to go back and highlight it again and use the text color button above (the underlined A) to change it to Black. It's fiddly work and is why I don't copy/paste stuff from that site more often. Quote
49r Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 20 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said: Oh, shit, it almost worked. Let's try it again: 1-2 Northwestern (87.1) B10 A 0-0 21% -9.4 1-6 Purdue (10.9) B10 A 0-0 4% -19.9 1-9 Wisconsin (115.3) B10 H 0-0 47% -1.0 1-12 Penn St. (86.6) B10 A 0-0 21% -9.4 1-15 Illinois (109.7) B10 H 0-0 48% -0.5 1-18 Michigan (48.6) B10 H 0-0 29% -6.2 1-22 Ohio St. (63.1) B10 A 0-0 20% -9.6 1-24 Rutgers (193.4) B10 A 0-0 43% -2.1 1-27 Iowa (144.4) B10 H 0-0 50% -0.1 1-29 Wisconsin (115.3) B10 A 0-0 26% -7.3 2-6 Minnesota (70.7) B10 A 0-0 18% -10.3 2-10 Rutgers (193.4) B10 H 0-0 64% 4.2 2-13 Maryland (37.0) B10 H 0-0 29% -6.5 2-18 Illinois (109.7) B10 A 0-0 27% -6.8 2-20 Indiana (131.0) B10 H 0-0 53% 0.8 2-25 Penn St. (86.6) B10 H 0-0 39% -3.1 Like that. Norm Peterson 1 Quote
huskerbaseball13 Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 17 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said: Why won't it do PSU at the bottom? For the record, 39% chance of beating PSU at home at the end of the year. I think our odds are better than that, but what do I know. http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Nebraska&year=2018 T-Rank is basically a poor mans KenPom but still very useful. Has us at 17-14 (8-10) overall. Quote
nustudent Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 Best part about this year though is we realistically control our own destiny. We technically do every year, but this year if you look at what is in front of us...it's not unrealistic pie in the sky hopes for winning games. We're legitimately the more talented team in probably no less than 11 of our final 15. NUtball and Norm Peterson 2 Quote
rr52 Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 Okay, so as an NU basketball fan, what do I want to see? Hypothetically speaking let's say the Huskers get to 11-7 in conference play and that gets them the #4 seed. How do I want the rest of the teams seeded lower than NU to finish? Would it be better to have 5 or 6 teams bunched up with 7-10 wins or have those wins spread out in seeds 5-12? Quote
HuskerFever Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 13 hours ago, hskr4life said: Noir worst loss is a semi away game to UCF. If it remains that way, we will be sitting nice at the end of the year. I'd argue that our worst loss was against St. John's. At least with UCF, we came back a little bit. Garbage points or not. Quote
Norm Peterson Posted January 3, 2018 Author Report Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, huskerbaseball13 said: http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Nebraska&year=2018 T-Rank is basically a poor mans KenPom but still very useful. Has us at 17-14 (8-10) overall. T-Rank is wrong. This team has more than six more wins left in its tank. We’ve avoided the demoralizing losses of last year. I see us going on a run to end the season. A run of wins this year. Ron Mexico and jayschool 2 Quote
Norm Peterson Posted January 3, 2018 Author Report Posted January 3, 2018 1-2 Northwestern (108.3) B10 A 55-70 W 100% 0.0 1-6 Purdue (10.5) B10 A 0-0 5% -18.8 1-9 Wisconsin (110.0) B10 H 0-0 49% -0.1 1-12 Penn St. (91.7) B10 A 0-0 23% -8.3 1-15 Illinois (110.9) B10 H 0-0 52% 0.6 1-18 Michigan (43.5) B10 H 0-0 32% -5.4 1-22 Ohio St. (62.8) B10 A 0-0 23% -8.6 1-24 Rutgers (193.3) B10 A 0-0 46% -1.1 1-27 Iowa (152.2) B10 H 0-0 54% 1.1 1-29 Wisconsin (110.0) B10 A 0-0 29% -6.5 2-6 Minnesota (72.8) B10 A 0-0 21% -9.3 2-10 Rutgers (193.3) B10 H 0-0 68% 5.2 2-13 Maryland (36.8) B10 H 0-0 32% -5.3 2-18 Illinois (110.9) B10 A 0-0 31% -5.7 2-20 Indiana (139.4) B10 H 0-0 57% 2.0 2-25 Penn St. (91.7) B10 H 0-0 43% -2.0 Quote
Norm Peterson Posted January 3, 2018 Author Report Posted January 3, 2018 Old chart from before our NW win: 1-2 Northwestern (87.1) B10 A 0-0 21% -9.4 1-6 Purdue (10.9) B10 A 0-0 4% -19.9 1-9 Wisconsin (115.3) B10 H 0-0 47% -1.0 1-12 Penn St. (86.6) B10 A 0-0 21% -9.4 1-15 Illinois (109.7) B10 H 0-0 48% -0.5 1-18 Michigan (48.6) B10 H 0-0 29% -6.2 1-22 Ohio St. (63.1) B10 A 0-0 20% -9.6 1-24 Rutgers (193.4) B10 A 0-0 43% -2.1 1-27 Iowa (144.4) B10 H 0-0 50% -0.1 1-29 Wisconsin (115.3) B10 A 0-0 26% -7.3 2-6 Minnesota (70.7) B10 A 0-0 18% -10.3 2-10 Rutgers (193.4) B10 H 0-0 64% 4.2 2-13 Maryland (37.0) B10 H 0-0 29% -6.5 2-18 Illinois (109.7) B10 A 0-0 27% -6.8 2-20 Indiana (131.0) B10 H 0-0 53% 0.8 2-25 Penn St. (86.6) B10 H 0-0 39% -3.1 Quote
Dead Dog Alley Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Norm Peterson said: Old chart from before our NW win: 1-2 Northwestern (87.1) B10 A 0-0 21% -9.4 1-6 Purdue (10.9) B10 A 0-0 4% -19.9 1-9 Wisconsin (115.3) B10 H 0-0 47% -1.0 1-12 Penn St. (86.6) B10 A 0-0 21% -9.4 1-15 Illinois (109.7) B10 H 0-0 48% -0.5 1-18 Michigan (48.6) B10 H 0-0 29% -6.2 1-22 Ohio St. (63.1) B10 A 0-0 20% -9.6 1-24 Rutgers (193.4) B10 A 0-0 43% -2.1 1-27 Iowa (144.4) B10 H 0-0 50% -0.1 1-29 Wisconsin (115.3) B10 A 0-0 26% -7.3 2-6 Minnesota (70.7) B10 A 0-0 18% -10.3 2-10 Rutgers (193.4) B10 H 0-0 64% 4.2 2-13 Maryland (37.0) B10 H 0-0 29% -6.5 2-18 Illinois (109.7) B10 A 0-0 27% -6.8 2-20 Indiana (131.0) B10 H 0-0 53% 0.8 2-25 Penn St. (86.6) B10 H 0-0 39% -3.1 Any projection that gave us a 47% probability of winning at home against Wisconsin, and a 50% probability against Iowa, should be discounted. It appears that whatever the formulas he's using to rate teams needs some tweaking. Quote
uneblinstu Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 Interesting. Almost every line moved a point in our favor after that win. Quote
Norm Peterson Posted January 3, 2018 Author Report Posted January 3, 2018 35 minutes ago, uneblinstu said: Interesting. Almost every line moved a point in our favor after that win. Have a feeling that's going to happen a few more times this season. Quote
uneblinstu Posted January 3, 2018 Report Posted January 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said: Have a feeling that's going to happen a few more times this season. Same Quote
49r Posted January 5, 2018 Report Posted January 5, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 11:01 PM, HuskerPower #nato73 said: And there it is jumped up to 84 and 17-14 8-11 But after Purdue every game is under a 10 point spread and KenPom is not yet convinced that we can protect the vault. Things are moving quickly in KenPom land now: Projected record: 18-13 9-9 ShortDust, AuroranHusker, Red Don and 2 others 5 Quote
hhcmatt Posted January 6, 2018 Report Posted January 6, 2018 12 hours ago, 49r said: Things are moving quickly in KenPom land now: Projected record: 18-13 9-9 Vinny and 49r 2 Quote
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