Bracketology. ***Spoiler: We're not in it yet.***

[HuskerFever]

1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

 

Yeah, outside of the Husker loving world, we are still not going to be on people's radars.  Honestly, we could win both these games this week and not be on people's radars.  Remember the great run we had.  We were not really on anyone's radar until late late in the year.  It is tough for teams like us to get there when we have never really been there.  An 11-6 Minnesota team or Michigan St team or OSU team is a lot different than an 11-6 Nebraska team in the eyes of most everyone outside of Nebraska.

 

Right. You start being on people's national radars when you beat teams like Kansas and Michigan State.

[Red Don]

38 minutes ago, uneblinstu said:

I think Michigan's getting right. Trips to Madison and Happy Valley are tricky and I think Illinois is gonna frisky. They're all gonna be tough.

 

Isn't Michigan @ PBA?   (unless you're talking about Madison Square Garden - but that'll be 'tricky' too  )

Edited January 9, 2018 by Red Don

[hskr4life]

Just now, Red Don said:

 

Isn't Michigan @ PBA?   (unless you're talking about Madison Square Garden )

 

I think he is talking the game @Wisco.  Madison, Wisconsin maybe?

[Red Don]

Ughhh,   My Bad!  

 

(Not enuf morning coffee - or too much!)

(and since you 'quoted' it, I can't go back and cover my tracks  )

 

 

Edited January 9, 2018 by Red Don

[hhcmatt]

1 minute ago, hskr4life said:

 

Would PSU now qualify as a Q1 win on the road?  Are they Top 75 yet?

 

Really depends on what they do the rest of the way. Same with everyone else.  If Northwestern caught fire or Minnesota could keep winning they could end up there.

Also, I really want to see this Q1-Q2-Q3-Q4 stuff implemented for a year before I completely buy in.  There has been talk about using other analytics but at the end of the day RPI always tends to be the most important.

[hskr4life]

10 minutes ago, hhcdimes said:

 

Really depends on what they do the rest of the way. Same with everyone else.  If Northwestern caught fire or Minnesota could keep winning they could end up there.

Also, I really want to see this Q1-Q2-Q3-Q4 stuff implemented for a year before I completely buy in.  There has been talk about using other analytics but at the end of the day RPI always tends to be the most important.

 

True.  Everyone still have 15+ games left.  So I can see that.  I also agree that I want to see how the Q's go this year.  You just hear everyone talking about it right now.  I remember Andy Katz was talking about it on BTN earlier.

[Norm Peterson]

If I get this quadrant thing, a WIN in Q1 does great things for you and a loss doesn't really hurt (except that you might have been better off getting a Q2 win than a Q1 loss, amiright?)

 

Q2 wins help also, but not as much as Q1s (of course) but a Q2 loss probably doesn't really hurt that much either as long as you win more of them than you lose.

 

A Q3 win doesn't help much but a Q3 loss would really leave a mark?

 

And a Q4 win is probably no better than a Q1 loss but a Q4 loss would be devastating.

 

Does that kind of capture the idea behind the quadrants?

 

Or is there a more official explanation for it?

[uneblinstu]

37 minutes ago, Red Don said:

 

Isn't Michigan @ PBA?   (unless you're talking about Madison Square Garden - but that'll be 'tricky' too  )

Yes. But the Michigan I've watched the past couple weeks has started to look like a vintage Beilein team. and NU's never beaten Michigan under Miles. That's gonna be the toughest game left on the schedule, regardless of location, IMO.

[uneblinstu]

43 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

 

I think he is talking the game @Wisco.  Madison, Wisconsin maybe?

Nope.

[hhcmatt]

2 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

If I get this quadrant thing, a WIN in Q1 does great things for you and a loss doesn't really hurt (except that you might have been better off getting a Q2 win than a Q1 loss, amiright?)

 

Q2 wins help also, but not as much as Q1s (of course) but a Q2 loss probably doesn't really hurt that much either as long as you win more of them than you lose.

 

A Q3 win doesn't help much but a Q3 loss would really leave a mark?

 

And a Q4 win is probably no better than a Q1 loss but a Q4 loss would be devastating.

 

Does that kind of capture the idea behind the quadrants?

 

Or is there a more official explanation for it?

 

This should help

http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2017-12-05/ncaa-selection-committee-adjusts-team-sheets-emphasizing

 

How much do you remember top 50 or top 100 wins being emphasized? That's how much Quadrants will be emphasized.

[Norm Peterson]

On ‎1‎/‎4‎/‎2018 at 2:54 PM, SkersHoops said:

 

Current:

Q1: L's @ St. J's, @ Mich St., @ PukeBirds, vs. KU   (0-4) 

Q2: W's vs. BC, vs. Minn, @ NW,    L UCF*     (3-1) VERY SOLID!   

Q3: W LB St.* (1-0)

Q4: Rest (7-0) (Never a doubt)   

 

Remaining:

Q1 remaining: @ Purdue, @ OSU, @ Minn, (3)  

Q2 remaining: @ Penn St., vs. Mich, @ Wis, vs. Mary, @ Ill,  (5)

Q3 remaining: Most likely all the rest (6) (assuming Iowa jumps up)

Q4 remaining: Except vs. Rutgers??? (1) 

 

Snipped

 

My goal was to see how many wins I think we need to get to the tournament. 

 

1 WIN FROM HERE?

Q1 remaining: @ Purdue, @ OSU, @ Minn, (3)   (1-2)

 

CAN WE WIN 3 OF THESE???  (I'm only marking 2 for now)

Q2 remaining: @ Penn St., vs. Mich, @ Wis, vs. Mary, @ Ill,  (5)  (2-3)

 

WIN 5 FROM THE REST, PREFERABLY 6, ONLY DROPPING 1 BAD ONE?  Let's say we drop 2 though. 

Q3: vs. Wis, vs. Illinois, @ Rutgers, vs. Iowa, vs. Rutgers, vs. Indiana, vs. Penn St.  (7)   (5-2)

 

Finally, Beat a Q2 in B1G and lose to a Q1.

 

snipped. 

 

My hope/expectation is that we should expect to win all the remaining Q3 games, of which all are at home except Rutgers.  We gotta sweep Rutgers.  They're really our only potential for a bad loss left on our schedule and represent our best chance for a road win.

 

Q1 is going to be tough.  Not sure there's a win there.  Maybe we surprise an Ohio State who will have just gotten done with Minnesota, have a 1-day prep for us before facing PSU.  That might help us, but still ... not a gimme.  At all.

 

Q2?  I think we should win at least 2 (home) and possibly sneak a third (road at Illinois or maybe at Wisconsin.)

 

I think you're right that 10 more wins should be our goal at this point: 8-9 yet in the regular season and 1-2 in the BTT.

[uneblinstu]

1 hour ago, uneblinstu said:

Nope.

What are you confused about, @Red Don?

[HolyBobpilgrimage]

On 1/4/2018 at 2:54 PM, SkersHoops said:

Andy Katz was on BTN live last night.  Said some really nice things about Nebraska.  Spoke a lot about the "quadrants", some of you have mentioned (as bigred4 did last week), the new system for NCAA selection committee, and how badly we needed the KU win.  We are 0-4 in quadrant 1, but 3-1 in the 2nd quadrant. 

 

The breakdown will be as follows:
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75   
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.

 

To those of you that have enough time to read my thoughts on this sheet, I apologize in advance.  The new system, as I've found messing around with it all morning, is much more in-depth than the old system, but I think much better.  If this was college football and UCF had.......... never mind.  I'll stay focused.  

 

Current:

Q1: L's @ St. J's, @ Mich St., @ PukeBirds, vs. KU   (0-4) 

Q2: W's vs. BC, vs. Minn, @ NW,    L UCF*     (3-1) VERY SOLID!   

Q3: W LB St.* (1-0)

Q4: Rest (7-0) (Never a doubt)   

 

Remaining:

Q1 remaining: @ Purdue, @ OSU, @ Minn, (3)  

Q2 remaining: @ Penn St., vs. Mich, @ Wis, vs. Mary, @ Ill,  (5)

Q3 remaining: Most likely all the rest (6) (assuming Iowa jumps up)

Q4 remaining: Except vs. Rutgers??? (1) 

 

Some of these teams could move to higher/lower Q's. The game against Wisconsin at home on the 9th is a Q3!!! That seems pretty tough to me.  Anyway......

 

Lets say we get 4 more Q1 games (1 in B1G Tourney) and snag 1 win, finishing 1-7 in quadrant 1.  That's obviously not good, but I think the Q1 wins are going to be VERY hard to come by, not just for Nebraska, but for most teams outside the top 25.  (KU and Pukebirds , one of, or both of those would have been nice) But, what I think is going to separate Nebraska from others is that Q2,  especially if we can get our Q2 to 7-3.  (looks like we'll get 5 or 6 more Q2 games.  Hopefully some more B1G teams can make a jump in RPI so we can get a few more Q2 games.  (IOWA AT HOME WOULD CURRENTLY BE A Q4 BTW!!!!)  I think Q2 (7-3) that would compete very well with all bottom 1/2 NCAA tourney schools and would make it much easier to over look our potentially rough Q1.

 

I'm just thinking out loud here.  My goal was to see how many wins I think we need to get to the tournament. 

 

1 WIN FROM HERE?

Q1 remaining: @ Purdue, @ OSU, @ Minn, (3)   (1-2)

 

CAN WE WIN 3 OF THESE???  (I'm only marking 2 for now)

Q2 remaining: @ Penn St., vs. Mich, @ Wis, vs. Mary, @ Ill,  (5)  (2-3)

 

WIN 5 FROM THE REST, PREFERABLY 6, ONLY DROPPING 1 BAD ONE?  Let's say we drop 2 though. 

Q3: vs. Wis, vs. Illinois, @ Rutgers, vs. Iowa, vs. Rutgers, vs. Indiana, vs. Penn St.  (7)   (5-2)

 

Finally, Beat a Q2 in B1G and lose to a Q1.

 

20-13 overall, 10-8 in conference.  1 win in B1G tourney 

We'd be:

Q1: (1-7)  (added 1 loss coming in tourney)

Q2: (6-5)  (added 1 win coming in tourney)

Q3: (5-2) Drop 2 badish game

Q4: (8-0)

 

or pick up an extra win in conference play (3-2 in Q2 instead of 2-3) and loss first round (probably be a double bye @ 11-7) 

 

We'd be:

Q1: (1-6)  

Q2: (6-5)  (1 loss coming in tourney)

Q3: (5-2) Drop 2 badish game

Q4: (8-0)

 

20-12 overall, 11-7 in conference.  No wins in B1G tourney

 

 

I first wanted to put this together to make my point that you guys are crazy if you think we're not going to make the tournament getting to 20 wins, but.... I don't think you're far off.  I think 20 wins is the MINIMUM and i'd give it a 50/50 shot at getting us in. Now, obviously my records can be different getting to 20 wins (1 more big win, one more lower loss, etc.) that could improve our resume both positively and negatively depending on how you look at it.

 

 I think 21 is going to be really close to a lock though.  That's what I think should be the teams "magic number" of wins.  10 more!  

 

You have to remember that there are 20 something teams in-front of Nebraska in the RPI that are going to drop in conference play due to the competition they are playing, win or lose.  Skers' SOS and RPI will keep creeping up as long has they take care of business and play like they have shown. 

 

Katz mentioned that HCTM talked about making PBA the toughest home court in B1G.  Katz said he hasn't experienced it yet but has been told, "...how great a home court it is and can be....".  He spoke very highly of our top 5 playmakers  (Glynn, JPJ, Gill, IC, and Roby)  He said Nebraska is the one team in the BIG that, "...we're trying to place and don't know yet..."

 

I hope Katz and the committee finds out that the Skers are a top 4 team in the B1G and I believe we can and will get to 21 wins. 

 

My prediction:

Q1: (2-6)  (1 win/1 loss coming in tourney) 

Q2: (7-4)  (1 win coming in tourney) 

Q3: (5-2) Drop 2 lower Q games

Q4: (8-0)

 

22-12 overall, 11-7 in conference.  Runner-up in B1G tourney

 

Final Season Record: 24-13.  Now you do the math....... 

This is excellent... I really like this quadrant idea. If it's at all accurate it's a great way to chart progress as well as project tournament chances.

I'm definitely snipping this and saving it! great post.

[49r]

2 hours ago, hskr4life said:

 

Would PSU now qualify as a Q1 win on the road?  Are they Top 75 yet?

 

Seems like as good a place as any to put this:

 

RANK	PREVIOUS	SCHOOL	CONFERENCE	RECORD	ROAD	NEUTRAL	HOME	NON DIV I

15	15	Purdue	Big Ten	15-2	2-0	2-2	11-0	0-0
24	23	Michigan St.	Big Ten	15-2	1-1	4-1	10-0	0-0
25	25	Ohio St.	Big Ten	13-4	2-0	1-3	10-1	0-0
36	39	Michigan	Big Ten	14-3	2-2	2-1	9-0	1-0
48	49	Maryland	Big Ten	14-4	1-2	2-1	10-1	1-0
74	75	Minnesota	Big Ten	13-4	1-2	2-0	10-2	0-0
79	79	Nebraska	Big Ten	11-6	1-4	2-1	8-1	0-0
98	97	Northwestern	Big Ten	10-7	1-4	1-1	7-2	1-0
110	114	Penn St.	Big Ten	12-5	2-2	1-1	9-2	0-0
120	120	Illinois	Big Ten	10-7	0-4	1-2	8-1	1-0
121	118	Indiana	Big Ten	9-7	1-4	1-0	7-3	0-0
125	124	Wisconsin	Big Ten	9-8	1-3	0-2	8-3	0-0
166	167	Iowa	Big Ten	9-9	0-4	3-2	6-3	0-0
181	182	Rutgers	Big Ten	11-6	0-2	0-0	10-4	1-0

 

 

[Red Don]

49 minutes ago, uneblinstu said:

What are you confused about, @Red Don?

 

 

Sorry, but I misinterpreted your initial comment, conflating Michigan & Madison, in my mind thinking you were talking about the same game.  After re-reading it's apparent you were talking about four separate upcoming games; Michigan and Illinois (both @ PBA), and road trips at Wisconsin and Penn State (and maybe the road trip to Illinois).  (It's difficult in my linear mind, I had to peek at the schedule to get it clear )

 

Sorry to get so far out into the weeds,  but having said that, my wishes for the year are to beat Michigan (finally); Finish in the Top Half of the B1G; and make it to the NCAA Tournament.

 

 

3 hours ago, uneblinstu said:

I think Michigan's getting right. Trips to Madison and Happy Valley are tricky and I think Illinois is gonna frisky. They're all gonna be tough.

 

Edited January 9, 2018 by Red Don

[uneblinstu]

21 minutes ago, Red Don said:

 

 

Sorry, but I misinterpreted your initial comment, conflating Michigan & Madison, in my mind thinking you were talking about the same game.  After re-reading it's apparent you were talking about four separate upcoming games; Michigan and Illinois (both @ PBA), and road trips at Wisconsin and Penn State (and maybe the road trip to Illinois).  (It's difficult in my linear mind, I had to peek at the schedule to get it clear )

 

Sorry to get so far out into the weeds,  but having said that, my wishes for the year are to beat Michigan (finally); Finish in the Top Half of the B1G; and make it to the NCAA Tournament.

 

 

 

Gotcha...I'd love for those things to happen. That would make me very happy.

[HuskerFever]

Sure is nice to have more bracketology threads than "hot seat" threads this time of year!

[49r]

On 1/3/2018 at 7:27 AM, HuskerActuary said:

Definitely not. Guys, our SOS is going to drag us down if we end up around the 20 win mark. Don't you remember feeling great when the conference schedules were released saying that we got a pretty good deal out of it? The flip side of that is needing more wins (alongside our non-conference SOS which is also not good). I think 22 wins is necessary to feel decent about chances, 23 wins would be a lock. 21 = out.

 

This was a fun thread to go back and read...

 

(is it Friday yet?)

[hskr4life]

On 1/4/2018 at 10:24 AM, hskr4life said:

 

Big 12!  Big 12!  Big 12!  Big 12!

 

Aren't they so good that they are supposed to get like 13 teams in the tournament this year?

 

I realize the Big 12 is really good, but the love fest with them this year get's brought up all the time.  In unrelated, but kind of related news, the Husker football team got some good air time when Scott Frost was discussed during the OU vs OSU basketball game last night for an extended period of time.

 

I saw the Big 12 love fest back in early January.

[hskr4life]

On 1/9/2018 at 11:33 AM, hskr4life said:

 

Yeah, outside of the Husker loving world, we are still not going to be on people's radars.  Honestly, we could win both these games this week and not be on people's radars.  Remember the great run we had.  We were not really on anyone's radar until late late in the year.  It is tough for teams like us to get there when we have never really been there.  An 11-6 Minnesota team or Michigan St team or OSU team is a lot different than an 11-6 Nebraska team in the eyes of most everyone outside of Nebraska.

 

I still think that this holds true.  Part of the reason we have 13 conference wins and aren't in is the name on the front.

[HuskerActuary]

6 hours ago, 49r said:

 

This was a fun thread to go back and read...

 

(is it Friday yet?)

Thanks for quoting me, I can't believe I've been spreading word that Santa wasn't real all the way back to January 3! 

[HolyBobpilgrimage]

3 hours ago, HuskerActuary said:

Thanks for quoting me, I can't believe I've been spreading word that Santa wasn't real all the way back to January 3! 

This HAS been a great journey. Back in January we were even saying 19 wins and we're in. Crazy. Crazy how time changes things. I think with where we are now the only reason we're outside looking in rn is because of not having wealthy, influential alums and a "michigan" or "buckeyes" across our chest. But we can get there, it'll just take a couple more years of sustained success. And then a couple more since we're the much maligned newcomers. Nobody has reason to respect us yet but if Creighton can do it, no fuckin question we can do it, and do it even better.